9 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after Germany:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Apex 909 101
= Fisichella_2001 909 101
= Grayson 909 101
4) mark f1 908 101
= skylark68 908 101
6) Brawn BGP 001 907 101
7) AcuraF1 906 101
8) Fastcake 905 101
= scheivlak 905 101
10) DutchQuicksilver 904 101
= Wander 904 101
= Wlleiotl 904 101
13) an1res 903 101
14) Barty 902 99
15) wattoroos 901 101
16) August 899 101
= KWSN-DSM 899 101
18) Bleu 896 99
19) Iscurrega 893 101
20) kismet 890 99
21) M2000-5 889 99
22) Kalmake 887 101
23) Estwald 885 101
= Makarias 885 101
25) noikeee 882 101
26) Anderis 881 101
27) Costaz 873 99

GOOD SCORES AND CAPS LOCK

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
diRe 103,4 59,0 15
Verg 98,0 44,8 14
Ricc 79,4 40,7 9
Rosb 78,7 54,9 5
Hami 71,7 48,5 0
Räik 63,6 42,0 0
Vett 62,3 55,9 0
Suti 62,3 35,9 2
Webb 53,8 38,3 0
Alon 51,6 43,6 0
Mass 42,3 27,0 0
Gros 35,8 24,7 0
Butt 18,1 13,3 0
Pere 13,1 7,9 0
Hülk 11,7 8,2 0

Just Rosberg cost some players a few points this round.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel Räikkönen Grosjean Alonso Hamilton
* Potential 407 * Potential 366 * Potential 291 * Potential 373 * Potential 349
* Forecast 331 M2000-5 275 Estwald 165 skylark68 281 * Forecast 209
Anderis 280 Iscurrega 251 an1res 150 Bleu 275 scheivlak 203
Makarias 276 * Forecast 245 noikeee 148 August 262 August 181
kismet 274 noikeee 242 Anderis 142 * Forecast 260 Grayson 165
Bleu 272 Barty 222 Makarias 142 KWSN-DSM 260 Apex 160
noikeee 272 Costaz 221 scheivlak 141 Iscurrega 254 KWSN-DSM 159
Apex 270 Wander 196 Kalmake 134 M2000-5 251 Makarias 158
August 267 Anderis 188 AcuraF1 131 an1res 250 Fastcake 157
wattoroos 263 Estwald 185 Wander 124 Costaz 250 DutchQuicksilver156
Iscurrega 260 Bleu 183 skylark68 122 kismet 250 noikeee 152
scheivlak 260 Kalmake 183 M2000-5 121 Kalmake 249 mark f1 150
KWSN-DSM 259 AcuraF1 180 mark f1 120 AcuraF1 245 AcuraF1 145
Costaz 254 Apex 180 wattoroos 118 Anderis 245 Fisichella_2001 138
Fisichella_2001 252 Wlleiotl 180 Costaz 114 Wlleiotl 240 wattoroos 138
Wander 251 August 179 Fisichella_2001 114 DutchQuicksilver236 Wander 136
mark f1 250 skylark68 176 Brawn BGP 001 113 noikeee 236 Brawn BGP 001 133
skylark68 250 an1res 174 Grayson 110 scheivlak 235 Bleu 129
Wlleiotl 250 mark f1 170 KWSN-DSM 105 Estwald 230 Iscurrega 128
DutchQuicksilver247 DutchQuicksilver167 Apex 100 mark f1 230 Estwald 124
Fastcake 247 Makarias 166 DutchQuicksilver100 Fisichella_2001 229 Costaz 122
Barty 241 Fisichella_2001 165 Iscurrega 100 Fastcake 227 skylark68 120
Kalmake 239 scheivlak 163 kismet 99 Makarias 227 Wlleiotl 120
M2000-5 236 wattoroos 163 Barty 89 wattoroos 223 kismet 118
Estwald 235 Grayson 160 * Forecast 87 Wander 222 Kalmake 115
AcuraF1 230 KWSN-DSM 158 Wlleiotl 80 Apex 220 an1res 110
Grayson 230 kismet 147 Bleu 76 Grayson 210 Anderis 105
an1res 225 Fastcake 128 Fastcake 72 Brawn BGP 001 207 Barty 105
Brawn BGP 001 211 Brawn BGP 001 123 August 63 Barty 192 M2000-5 101
* Current 157 * Current 116 * Current 41 * Current 123 * Current 99

First points in a while for Grosjean. Kimi and Lewis about to get to the fun zone.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Button Webber Perez Rosberg Hülkenberg
* Potential 283 * Potential 343 * Potential 266 * Potential 334 * Potential 257
Costaz 248 Barty 242 Brawn BGP 001 201 * Forecast 177 Bleu 84
Fastcake 241 Anderis 225 August 170 scheivlak 152 Wlleiotl 80
Brawn BGP 001 222 Costaz 200 Fastcake 161 an1res 140 wattoroos 78
Barty 209 kismet 200 Kalmake 154 AcuraF1 139 Estwald 70
wattoroos 208 Fastcake 198 Costaz 141 KWSN-DSM 138 KWSN-DSM 69
Iscurrega 201 * Forecast 196 Fisichella_2001 141 Kalmake 130 Makarias 69
Wlleiotl 200 DutchQuicksilver181 Grayson 140 Grayson 125 Wander 67
kismet 199 an1res 180 wattoroos 133 DutchQuicksilver124 Brawn BGP 001 66
August 197 Apex 180 Iscurrega 132 Makarias 118 AcuraF1 65
AcuraF1 195 Estwald 180 Makarias 129 Fastcake 117 Apex 65
Bleu 190 mark f1 180 DutchQuicksilver128 Estwald 115 Grayson 65
DutchQuicksilver190 Wlleiotl 180 KWSN-DSM 125 Fisichella_2001 112 skylark68 63
Wander 185 Fisichella_2001 175 Wander 122 Brawn BGP 001 111 scheivlak 62
Fisichella_2001 182 Bleu 173 Barty 121 noikeee 105 August 60
Apex 180 Kalmake 173 Wlleiotl 120 Wander 105 mark f1 60
Grayson 175 skylark68 169 skylark68 116 skylark68 104 M2000-5 57
mark f1 170 AcuraF1 168 Anderis 114 Anderis 100 Fisichella_2001 56
skylark68 170 Wander 162 Apex 110 Apex 100 Barty 55
Makarias 164 KWSN-DSM 160 mark f1 104 mark f1 100 Fastcake 54
scheivlak 164 Iscurrega 158 Bleu 103 Wlleiotl 100 Anderis 50
KWSN-DSM 157 Makarias 158 kismet 101 Iscurrega 94 Iscurrega 50
M2000-5 157 wattoroos 158 Estwald 100 August 88 noikeee 50
noikeee 151 Grayson 155 noikeee 98 wattoroos 88 DutchQuicksilver 49
an1res 150 noikeee 153 an1res 90 * Current 84 kismet 49
Estwald 145 M2000-5 152 scheivlak 88 Bleu 79 Kalmake 45
Kalmake 145 scheivlak 145 AcuraF1 84 M2000-5 78 Costaz 43
Anderis 127 Brawn BGP 001 144 M2000-5 82 Barty 77 an1res 30
* Forecast 70 August 116 * Forecast 34 Costaz 77 * Forecast 15
* Current 33 * Current 93 * Current 16 kismet 67 * Current 7

Best race of the season so far for McLaren, this...

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
scheivlak 1565,8 40,9
Apex 1553,0 40,1
KWSN-DSM 1550,7 39,8
noikeee 1544,1 35,1
AcuraF1 1536,1 40,2
Iscurrega 1535,0 43,4
DutchQuicksilver 1534,1 26,2
mark f1 1523,3 29,5
Bleu 1511,2 11,3
Fisichella_2001 1505,1 31,2
an1res 1504,1 25,9
skylark68 1503,8 21,9
Costaz 1502,4 25,6
kismet 1496,0 19,8
Wlleiotl 1495,8 28,3
Anderis 1494,4 15,6
Grayson 1493,3 39,5
Estwald 1489,1 25,9
Makarias 1489,1 25,9
Wander 1489,1 27,2
M2000-5 1484,7 34,7
Kalmake 1484,1 25,9
wattoroos 1475,7 22,2
August 1460,9 15,0
Fastcake 1452,6 24,7
Barty 1433,7 24,5
Brawn BGP 001 1355,8 40,9

Forecasts bounced back up as the McLarens and Grosjean scored points, which I said after Britain that they hadn't done lately, which was true then.

Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Force India (nee Jordan/Midland/Spyker) team through the years:

Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 57.0 12.9 17 3.8 29.2
2001 442 35.2 8.0 19 4.3 53.9
2002 442 18.8 4.3 9 2.0 47.8
2003 624 19.2 3.1 13 2.1 67.5
2004 702 6.4 0.9 5 0.7 78.2
2005 741 1.9 0.3 12 1.6 633.6
2006 702 1.4 0.2 0 0.0 0.0
2007 663 0.5 0.1 1 0.2 210.5
2008 702 3.4 0.5 0 0.0 0.0
2009 731 2.4 0.3 14 1.9 571.8
2010 1919 65.1 3.4 68 3.5 104.4
2011 1919 34.2 1.8 69 3.6 202.0
2012 2020 88.3 4.4 109 5.4 123.4

*The franchise has a 6/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far.
*After a competitive end of the nineties, Jordan met the new millenium with high expectations but instead started going downhill, and the team failed to live up to expectations for the first five seasons of PTPC.
*2004-2008 were tough years for the team with a lot of turmoil; expectations went so low that a single point scored in 2007 was a positive surprise.
*Since 2009 the team has fought itself steadily back into form, and is looking to have its best season in a long time when 2013 is summed up. It's not the heydays of 1998-1999 quite yet, but that's what 2014 is for, innit...
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.

[scheivlak]

Still on course!

[DutchQuicksilver]

Completely overestimated McLaren, Hülkenberg and Maldonado for this season.

[scheivlak]

Completely overestimated McLaren, Hülkenberg and Maldonado for this season.

Like everyone!

I still punch my own head every time I see that ridiculous "Button 164" next to my name.
To think that I first wanted to type 100 or so -because McLaren just sucked pre-season- and then changed it to 164 "just to be safe"..... and as a result I lowered Raikkonen's prediction

[Brawn BGP 001]

Couldn't have gone much worse really for me Williams, Sauber and McLaren way overrated. Red Bull, Toro Rosso, Merc. Force India and Lotus underrated.

Edited by Brawn BGP 001, 08 July 2013 - 22:37.

[Anderis]

It seems I am spot on with some drivers, like Vettel or Button (well, maybe not spot on, but still better than anyone here ), but I wasted too many points on Williams and Sauber while underestimated Mercedes and Force India.

Edited by Anderis, 09 July 2013 - 11:30.

[KWSN - DSM]

The mysteries of the estimated end result elude my comprehension, so I enjoy being close to the top and will await the final result.

[DutchQuicksilver]

Like everyone!

I still punch my own head every time I see that ridiculous "Button 164" next to my name.
To think that I first wanted to type 100 or so -because McLaren just sucked pre-season- and then changed it to 164 "just to be safe"..... and as a result I lowered Raikkonen's prediction

And we all knew that Williams' long run pace in Barcelona pre season was horrible. Yet, we all seemed to have faith in Williams' fortunes.

[Anderis]

TBH, Force India didn't look too strong in Barcelona either (Sutil's race simulation was even worse than Maldonado's), that's why I underestimated them so badly, yet they're quite strong this season.

[Fastcake]

Next year I'm putting my guess through a random number generator

At least I put a decent number of points on Mercedes.