45 replies to this topic

[sopa]

This is true. I remember very very clearly, I was a young kid at that time but a F1 freak, that during the winter of '87-'88 everybody, including the press, was considering Gerhard Berger as by far the biggest title favourite for 1988. Senna was considered to be the other favourite with his move from Lotus to McLaren but no-one had expected that McLaren would be as dominant as they were. Senna was in '87 considered as the quickest driver over 1 lap but Berger was the title favourite when '88 started.

This thread is inspired by a post by Mr Hunt in another thread (Sauber discussion). I didn't want to drag it off-topic, but found this claim very interesting.

Any other examples of pre-season predictions, especially if they were completely wrong for whatever reason?

Probably the most famous one is 2009, because no-one got that one even closely right - certainly not before winter tests.
Before 1994 the favourite was obviously Senna.
What about other seasons? Was McLaren expected to dominate in 1998 and what was made of Williams losing works engines?
Were Alesi/Berger viewed as genuine championship contenders before 1996 in the Benetton?
Could the dominance of McLaren-TAG turbos be foreseen before 1984?
Renault/Alonso in 2005?
And so on.

[Garagiste]

... Was McLaren expected to dominate in 1998 and what was made of Williams losing works engines?
...

Absolutely. From the first time they bolted on the Bridgestones everybody else knew they were in trouble. HHF bet JV that they would get lapped in Aus and JV took the bet, saying "no way". They were lapped, along with the whole of the rest of the field.

[garoidb]

Absolutely. From the first time they bolted on the Bridgestones everybody else knew they were in trouble. HHF bet JV that they would get lapped in Aus and JV took the bet, saying "no way". They were lapped, along with the whole of the rest of the field.

I think the OP may have meant before testing of the new cars (or tyres) began.

[Collombin]

Piquet was an overwhelming favourite for 1986 as I recall.

I agree Berger was considered a strong contender for 1988, thanks to his/Ferrari's bright finish to 1987, but I wouldn't have said he was by far the favourite. Mansell was totally written off of course, thanks to Williams going to the unblown Judd. Even his 2nd place in Rio qualifying was considered a major surprise (and the fact he had disposed of his hairy caterpillar).

I recall Murray Walker / Brundle / Palmer at the start of 1995 discussing the potential title contenders - Murray said Nigel Mansell, and the other two just looked at with a "wtf?" kind of stare

[10e10]

Before this season started many pointed JB as a favourite as McLaren finished the season with the faster car and JB would be de facto leader.
How wrong it turned out to be....

[Rob]

Were Alesi/Berger viewed as genuine championship contenders before 1996 in the Benetton?

I think any hope of success was extinguished as soon as they tested the 1995 car. Berger was particularly vocal about how difficult it was to drive. If I remember rightly it had a problem with chronic oversteer.

[CSquared]

1988: I wasn't reading a whole lot of different sources at the time, but I seem to remember Road & Track at least had the McLaren drivers as the favorites, not Berger. The two best drivers on the grid now had Honda engines, and both had finished in front of Berger in the 1987 championship. Still, much was expected of Berger after how he ended 1987.
1991: Prost won 5 races and almost the title in 1990. Maybe he wasn't considered the favorite, but he was expected to challenge. Alesi was hot and was expected to complement his natural talent with all the strategy and technical skills he was expected to learn from Prost. No one predicted Ferrari was going to fall apart so badly.
2001: Häkkinen was expected to challenge for the title again.
2008: Räikkönen was supposed to be able to defend his title.

I think any hope of success was extinguished as soon as they tested the 1995 car. Berger was particularly vocal about how difficult it was to drive. If I remember rightly it had a problem with chronic oversteer.

That's how Schumacher liked it.

Edited by CSquared, 09 July 2013 - 19:13.

[g1n]

Most of the pre-season polls on F1 websites had MSC as favorite to take the crown in 2010....

[1Devil1]

1988: I wasn't reading a whole lot of different sources at the time, but I seem to remember Road & Track at least had the McLaren drivers as the favorites, not Berger. The two best drivers on the grid now had Honda engines, and both had finished in front of Berger in the 1987 championship. Still, much was expected of Berger after how he ended 1987.
1991: Prost won 5 races and almost the title in 1990. Maybe he wasn't considered the favorite, but he was expected to challenge. Alesi was hot and was expected to complement his natural talent with all the strategy and technical skills he was expected to learn from Prost. No one predicted Ferrari was going to fall apart so badly.
2001: Häkkinen was supposed to be able to defend his title.
2008: Räikkönen was supposed to be able to defend his title.


That's how Schumacher liked it.

I title he never won ;)

Edited by 1Devil1, 09 July 2013 - 19:09.

[CSquared]

I title he never won ;)

Doh! I meant to say he was expected to challenge for the title again.

[johnmhinds]

Most of the pre-season polls on F1 websites had MSC as favorite to take the crown in 2010....

Brawn/Mercedes did win the previous season. And Brawn/Schumacher won 7 other championships to together.

It wasn't really that crazy to think he would come back and win another championship.

[g1n]

Brawn/Mercedes did win the previous season. And Brawn/Schumacher won 7 other championships to together.

It wasn't really that crazy to think he would come back and win another championship.

Brawn were struggling in the second half of the season, Button's average was like 5th or something like that. I never bought it and I was right, although would have been something of a story for sport if he had actually won one with Mercedes or at least had opportunity to fight for one.

[MarileneRiddle]

I just want to say that DC predicted Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull for the 2010 WDC and WCC and everyone else on the BBC forum laughed at him (Jake Humphrey, Jonathan Legard, Eddie Jordon and Martin Brundle), implying he was just saying it because of his relationship to Red Bull.

But DC was right.

[noikeee]

Brawn were struggling in the second half of the season, Button's average was like 5th or something like that. I never bought it and I was right, although would have been something of a story for sport if he had actually won one with Mercedes or at least had opportunity to fight for one.

Yeah it wasn't anywhere near being on the cards for me neither, didn't buy that one. Clearly car development had gone bananas the previous season with zero money for upgrades and a championship to defend so the focus was on the 09 car not the 10. Plus MS coming back from a lengthy retirement was a total unknown.

Think I was backing Vettel too at the time. I could look at the Place the Points competition, but those guesses were after testing which as almost always gave very big clues.

[TheThirdTenor1]

I just want to say that DC predicted Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull for the 2010 WDC and WCC and everyone else on the BBC forum laughed at him (Jake Humphrey, Jonathan Legard, Eddie Jordon and Martin Brundle), implying he was just saying it because of his relationship to Red Bull.

But DC was right.

Yep this is a good one. I think many expected Mclaren vs Ferrari battle to resume at the front in 2010 after the surprises of 2009.

[TheThirdTenor1]

This thread is inspired by a post by Mr Hunt in another thread (Sauber discussion). I didn't want to drag it off-topic, but found this claim very interesting.

Any other examples of pre-season predictions, especially if they were completely wrong for whatever reason?

Probably the most famous one is 2009, because no-one got that one even closely right - certainly not before winter tests.
Before 1994 the favourite was obviously Senna.
What about other seasons? Was McLaren expected to dominate in 1998 and what was made of Williams losing works engines?
Were Alesi/Berger viewed as genuine championship contenders before 1996 in the Benetton?
Could the dominance of McLaren-TAG turbos be foreseen before 1984?
Renault/Alonso in 2005?
And so on.

a great thread.

On 1998:

This is what Max Galvin from Autosport thought:

Winfield Williams-Mecachrome - Goodyear
The most successful team of recent years finds itself with a lot of work in 1998. The drivers are good, that much has been proved before, and both are capable of winning races and both have done in the past. This cannot be underestimated and Williams are one of only 3 teams to be fielding drivers who have both won F1 races in the past. Much has been made of the departure of Adrian Newey, but it has been said that his contribution to last years car was not huge and that the rest of the design team are capable of designing as good a car as before. The big question marks hang over the quality of their engine and tyres. Renault have now officially left F1 and it is down to their long term technical partner Mecachrome to develop the F1 powerplant for the 1998 and 1999 seasons. Although Mecachrome have a superb record in engineering, it looks doubtful that they can carry on where the Regie left off and power Williams to another Championship double. The tyre situation is also worrying, primarily because McLaren and Benetton are both on Bridgestone rubber and this may well provide them the advantage they need to get ahead. Whilst I feel doubtful that they will repeat their 97 success, nobody can doubt that they will win races and push to take the championship. That said, my feeling is that they will come in second.

1, Jacques Villeneuve
Jacques Villeneuve enters the 1998 season carrying the coveted #1 on his car after winning the Championship in only his second attempt. However, things are not looking as rosy as they did in 1997 for the Canadian and he will need to do more than he did in '97 to win the Championship this season. In many races, Jacques apparently "lucked into" the wins, yet as the cliche goes, "You need to be in it to win it", and Villeneuve was certainly "in it" on several occasions and it is this that clinched the title for him. To win the title in '98 Jacques will have to be Mr. Consistent and pick up points wherever possible as wins are likely to be less easy than last year. Title hopeful, but not my favourite.

West McLaren-Mercedes - Bridgestone
What can be written about McLaren's 1998 title assault that hasn't already been said? Everything is looking good for the Woking based team with arguably the most powerful engine, 2 fast, experienced drivers, a superb chassis and Bridgestone rubber. Looking below the surface, are their any weaknesses that the other teams can exploit? Clearly the weakest point seems to be the Mercedes powerplant that caused so much disappointment in 1997, especially for Mika Hakkinen. Ilmor, the Mercedes engine builders, say the new, lightweight version is cured of it's reliability problems, and so far this seems true, but this time last year, they weren't losing too many engines either. On the face of it, the arrival of Adrian Newey seems to have turned the team around and I would not disagree, the former Williams man having apparently given the massive resources of McLaren International a focal point for their efforts. McLaren are my tip for the title and although I don't believe it will be the cakewalk many are predicting, I think they will take the lions share of race victories in 1998.

8. Mika Hakkinen
At the end of last season I said that Mika Hakkinen seemed feted to become "one of the best World Champions we never had" and, typically, I now have to eat my words. Finally, the Flying Finn seems to have the equipment to move a step forward and start winning races regularly (rather than having them gifted by other drivers) and even challenge for the title. As mentioned earlier, the only problem Mika has is that he seems to be harder on his car than his team mate, therefore suffering more retirements, and it is this that may cost him the title. This said, Mika is still the man I expect to walk away with the most silverware in 1998, and most importantly, the Drivers' title.

http://atlasf1.autos...iew/galvin.html

On 1996, this was written by Paul Rushworth of Autosport:

Mild Seven Benetton-Renault (3,4)

Predicted Constructors Rating: 2nd

Benetton returns to the fray minus their lead driver for the first time since 1992. The ex-Ferrari team mates are reunited at Benetton which now flys the Italian banner. Berger and Alesi are expected to be major contenders for the World Championship in 1996 since they will be driving last year's winner. Berger must be nearing the end of his Formula one career which now sees him return to the Benetton team (Berger won Benetton's first ever GP victory).

Jean Alesi
Predicted Driver Rating: 2nd

Finally having broken his "duck" in 1995, Alesi will be looking for the title with both the Benetton and the Renault provided horsepower. The combination may fall short of the Williams-Hill package however.

Gerhard Berger
Predicted Driver Rating: 3rd

Always in the shadow of Senna at Mclaren, Berger finally has the opportunity to challenge for the title with a consistent car. Berger is unlikely to beat Alesi on points - thus, his lower rating.

http://atlasf1.autos.../rushworth.html

If someone has access to the following articles, then we can see what Autosport predicted for 2005.

http://atlasf1.autos...b23/barnes.html

http://atlasf1.autos...b23/keeble.html

[noikeee]

a great thread.

On 1998:

This is what Max Galvin from Autosport thought:
(...)

[i]West McLaren-Mercedes - Bridgestone
What can be written about McLaren's 1998 title assault that hasn't already been said? Everything is looking good for the Woking based team with arguably the most powerful engine, 2 fast, experienced drivers, a superb chassis and Bridgestone rubber. Looking below the surface, are their any weaknesses that the other teams can exploit? Clearly the weakest point seems to be the Mercedes powerplant that caused so much disappointment in 1997, especially for Mika Hakkinen. Ilmor, the Mercedes engine builders, say the new, lightweight version is cured of it's reliability problems, and so far this seems true, but this time last year, they weren't losing too many engines either. On the face of it, the arrival of Adrian Newey seems to have turned the team around and I would not disagree, the former Williams man having apparently given the massive resources of McLaren International a focal point for their efforts. McLaren are my tip for the title and although I don't believe it will be the cakewalk many are predicting, I think they will take the lions share of race victories in 1998.

(...)

Very interesting, thanks, but that bit makes it sound as if that was written after testing, when it was well known McLaren arrived and absolutely smashed the opposition. "the cakewalk many are predicting"... I wonder what people wrote in the late 1997 before testing started.

[TheThirdTenor1]

Very interesting, thanks, but that bit makes it sound as if that was written after testing, when it was well known McLaren arrived and absolutely smashed the opposition. "the cakewalk many are predicting"... I wonder what people wrote in the late 1997 before testing started.

The best i could find was this poll from January 1998 (unfortunately it doesn't make a whole lot of sense):

Vote for the 1998 Champions
4 posts by 3 authors
Ross Mc Carthy
1/19/98

The results so far:

alesi Vill Sch M Hakk Coul Hill
10% 25% 40% 10% 5% 10%


McLaren Ferrari Williams Jordan
35% 30% 30% 5%



I think the MP4-13 was released in February so this poll was from before it hit the test track.

[sopa]

I think we already saw in the second half of 1997 that McLaren was very fast on most occasions. Only problem was reliability. Also Bridgestone tyres were superior to Goodyear in 1997 and McLaren switched to Bridges. So if this situation remained I guess even before testing one would have thought McLaren would be at least a semi-regular race winner as long as the car stayed in one piece. I guess a gigantic three-way battle for the title was on the cards between Williams, Ferrari and McLaren.

1996 is interesting. Hill was considered a favourite, but it must have been fresh in the minds of fans that Hill had a great car in 1995, but didn't deliver and made many mistakes. So I guess he could have easily expected to flop again especially if Alesi could replicate anything from Schumacher in 1995 and get a good run of results. Alesi had a good season in 1995, largely let down by reliability, otherwise he could have even challenged for second place in the drivers championship. Benetton was certainly a reliable car, just nobody knew, how would he adapt to it.

Also more recently I think in 2002 a three-way fight between Ferrari, Williams and McLaren was expected, but Ferrari ran away fairly easily.
Conversely Ferrari was expected to dominate in 2003, but didn't happen.
In 2004 again a close season was expected, but Ferrari ran away.

[TheThirdTenor1]

In 2004 again a close season was expected, but Ferrari ran away.

Yeh in 2004, i think people were expecting a continuation of 2003 with Mclaren and Williams pushing Ferrari quite close and maybe even beating them. Both flopped quite badly.

[scheivlak]

I think the OP may have meant before testing of the new cars (or tyres) began.

Maybe, but the bets after the pre-season test are fascinating enough.

Example A: the 2005 bets in http://forums.autosp...w...1&hl=points

M Schumacher 110 70-174
Räikkönen 87 44-115
Montoya 78 43-112
Barrichello 76 49-120
Alonso 75 49-115
Fisichella 63 24-114
Button 51 22- 91
Webber 46 14- 83
Heidfeld 41 13- 87
Sato 28 13- 55
R Schumacher 20 5- 60
Trulli 18 4- 41
Massa 16 2- 33
Coulthard 12 0- 33
Villeneuve 12 0- 29
Klien 3 0- 12
Albers 1 0- 8
Badoer 1 0- 25
Karthikeyan 1 0- 4
Liuzzi 1 0- 8
Monteiro 1 0- 9
Bruni 0 0- 1
de la Rosa 0 0- 1
Friesacher 0 0- 3
Pizzonia 0 0- 7
van der Merwe 0 0- 1

This was after the Renault guys totally crushed everybody at the last Barcelona test on the long runs. Yet maybe everybody (including me ) thought: "OK, maybe they have a good start of the season but then the real top guys and top teams will take over" - or something like that.

Example B:

The 2009 bets: http://forums.autosp...w...0&hl=points


Name Max Pop Min[/b]

Räik 129 91 68
Mass 115 85 55
Kubi 122 77 55
Heid 128 66 28
Hami 102 58 13
Alon 90 58 20
Butt 96 47 15
Trul 62 41 21
Barr 82 38 6
Gloc 53 36 15
Kova 55 31 3
Vett 41 27 11
Webb 40 21 5
Piqu 60 17 1
Rosb 38 17 6
Naka 18 8 0
Bour 16 7 0
Buem 15 4 0
Suti 5 1 0
Fisi 5 1 0
Gros 2 0 0

Do we see a pattern? Brawn crushed everybody from the first minutes they went on track (and that was already in the month of March!). One could almost say that this forum could hardly post about anything else that week. And still Button and Barricello were only 7th and 9th favourites when it came to betting for this competition.
Look BTW where Vettel and Webber stood - between Kovalainen and Piquet! Somebody expected Webber to collect just 5 points for the whole season.

Every year a lot of people think that the pre-season test form is just a fluke and keep thinking that they can easily predict the outcome just from the results of the year before.
Not that the pre-season tests are always the right indication BTW - McLaren were a laughing stock pre-season 2011 and suddenly turned it around already in Melbourne!

Now where was my crystal ball.....

Edited by scheivlak, 09 July 2013 - 21:40.

[KWSN - DSM]

The Place The Points game is open for entries until just before the first race, and we all get it more or less wrong every year despite having a full test season to figure the true and relative strengths and weaknesses out. Like most others I have been caught out thinking way too highly of McLaren, which DID set fastest time in first test.

[scheivlak]

The Place The Points game is open for entries until just before the first race, and we all get it more or less wrong every year despite having a full test season to figure the true and relative strengths and weaknesses out. Like most others I have been caught out thinking way too highly of McLaren, which DID set fastest time in first test.

Later -after the season had already started- we learned that this was a result of an -unintentional- illegal setup (too low)......

After that one test, they never showed any promise at all.

Edited by scheivlak, 09 July 2013 - 21:52.

[wj_gibson]

Even by 1990 there remained a lot of people convinced that Berger was just a talent waiting to go off. Aboutv3 races alongside Senna put paid to that.

Looking further back, I'm sure there were several commentators who regarded Jacky Ickx in a Lotus as a dead cert for the 1974 title as of December '73. And Gilles Villeneuve was comfortably the favourite going into 1980.

Edited by wj_gibson, 09 July 2013 - 22:01.

[TheThirdTenor1]

This was after the Renault guys totally crushed everybody at the last Barcelona test on the long runs. Yet maybe everybody (including me ) thought: "OK, maybe they have a good start of the season but then the real top guys and top teams will take over" - or something like that.

By the time 2005 came, many people were desperate for the Ferrari domination to end. I remember some were still not convinced the Ferrari domination was over after Melbourne because Barrichello came 2nd in that race. Many also thought the domination had returned after Imola.

[George Costanza]

Absolutely. From the first time they bolted on the Bridgestones everybody else knew they were in trouble. HHF bet JV that they would get lapped in Aus and JV took the bet, saying "no way". They were lapped, along with the whole of the rest of the field.

Indeed. Not even Michael and Ferrari could believe it what they saw at Australia 1998.

[George Costanza]

1988: I wasn't reading a whole lot of different sources at the time, but I seem to remember Road & Track at least had the McLaren drivers as the favorites, not Berger. The two best drivers on the grid now had Honda engines, and both had finished in front of Berger in the 1987 championship. Still, much was expected of Berger after how he ended 1987.
1991: Prost won 5 races and almost the title in 1990. Maybe he wasn't considered the favorite, but he was expected to challenge. Alesi was hot and was expected to complement his natural talent with all the strategy and technical skills he was expected to learn from Prost. No one predicted Ferrari was going to fall apart so badly.
2001: Häkkinen was expected to challenge for the title again.
2008: Räikkönen was supposed to be able to defend his title.


That's how Schumacher liked it.

Actually, Schumacher hated driving the 1995 car. He said it was too nervous under very high speed. But he could cope with it very well, however.

[George Costanza]

Yeah it wasn't anywhere near being on the cards for me neither, didn't buy that one. Clearly car development had gone bananas the previous season with zero money for upgrades and a championship to defend so the focus was on the 09 car not the 10. Plus MS coming back from a lengthy retirement was a total unknown.

Think I was backing Vettel too at the time. I could look at the Place the Points competition, but those guesses were after testing which as almost always gave very big clues.

Had Schumacher returned in 2009, with his old mate, Rubens, would have Michael won the title in 2009?

[Zippel]

Was it just me or was there not much talking up of Jacques Villeneuve before the start of the 1997 season? It all seemed to be about Frentzen, Schumacher or even Hill in some circles!

[scheivlak]

By the time 2005 came, many people were desperate for the Ferrari domination to end. I remember some were still not convinced the Ferrari domination was over after Melbourne because Barrichello came 2nd in that race. Many also thought the domination had returned after Imola.

Well, most commentators were quick to say that Barricello's 2nd place at Melbourne was an excellent job of damage limitation -after all, he did it in an upgraded 'F2004M' car. The real shocker was when they qualified 12th and 13th next race in Malaysia..... and were totally outgunned by almost every Michelin shod car. A sign of things to come.
What amazed me as well of course was Ferrari -with their $300 million or so budget- could only bring their 2005 challenger haphazardly at the next -Bahraini- GP in what still looked like some experimental stage of development. With Alonso running away with multiple wins and perfect reliability it was clear that only some kind of miracle could help Ferrari's title bid.

[Collombin]

1996 is interesting. Hill was considered a favourite, but it must have been fresh in the minds of fans that Hill had a great car in 1995, but didn't deliver and made many mistakes.

I thought Jacques, as a rookie, would come in and blitz Hill. After he took pole in the first race, I was even more sure.

Looking further back, I'm sure there were several commentators who regarded Jacky Ickx in a Lotus as a dead cert for the 1974 title as of December '73.

I did wonder about 1974, especially with so many lineup changes. I guess Peterson would have been a strong favourite too, he definitely overshadowed Emmo in the last half of '73. The Ferraris were nowhere, Tyrrell had lost both its drivers, whilst at McLaren Emmo would take time to settle and Hulme was nearing the end of his career.

[TheThirdTenor1]

Was it just me or was there not much talking up of Jacques Villeneuve before the start of the 1997 season? It all seemed to be about Frentzen, Schumacher or even Hill in some circles!

I read that the HHF - Schumacher rivalry was talked up in the German media. Frentzen was definitely a big let down that season.

[George Costanza]

I read that the HHF - Schumacher rivalry was talked up in the German media. Frentzen was definitely a big let down that season.

He did not get along well with Patrick Head too well.

Patrick was too demanding on him.

[TheThirdTenor1]

Autosport's opinion on 97:

Paul's view:
The team must remain the absolute favourite for the Constructors Championship, and indeed the Drivers Championship. The real question is which driver will claim the crown. While Villeneuve enjoys the stability of not changing teams for 1997, I still have questions about his outright pace. Heinz-Harald Frentzen joins Williams with a huge reputation to live up to. The early season may tip slightly in the favour of Villeneuve, but I expect Frentzen to be the victor as the season progresses.

http://atlasf1.autos...son/galvin.html

[George Costanza]

Autosport's opinion on 97:

Paul's view:
The team must remain the absolute favourite for the Constructors Championship, and indeed the Drivers Championship. The real question is which driver will claim the crown. While Villeneuve enjoys the stability of not changing teams for 1997, I still have questions about his outright pace. Heinz-Harald Frentzen joins Williams with a huge reputation to live up to. The early season may tip slightly in the favour of Villeneuve, but I expect Frentzen to be the victor as the season progresses.

http://atlasf1.autos...son/galvin.html

HHF WDC? Even if that happened, Schumacher would have beaten HHF rather easily.

[TheThirdTenor1]

He did not get along well with Patrick Head too well.

Patrick was too demanding on him.

According to Frentzen, this is what PH said to him at his first Williams test in 97:

"You should take a good look in the mirror and ask yourself if you really are a professional racing driver"

[George Costanza]

http://www.speedcafe...arald-frentzen/

Good bits about his F1 career.

[sopa]

According to Frentzen, this is what PH said to him at his first Williams test in 97:

"You should take a good look in the mirror and ask yourself if you really are a professional racing driver"

Umm... why did he say that and already after first test? What was about Frentzen that Head didn't like almost instantly?

[oetzi]

Even by 1990 there remained a lot of people convinced that Berger was just a talent waiting to go off. Aboutv3 races alongside Senna put paid to that.

I seem to remember hearing at the time that Berger didn't actually fit in that McLaren properly and had to drive it by memory with numb feet because it was so cramped.

[Rob]

Was it just me or was there not much talking up of Jacques Villeneuve before the start of the 1997 season? It all seemed to be about Frentzen, Schumacher or even Hill in some circles!

Any talking up of Hill was mostly from Arrows themselves, or members of the press who had fallen for Tom Walkinshaw's PR.

[William Hunt]

Piquet was an overwhelming favourite for 1986 as I recall.

I agree Berger was considered a strong contender for 1988, thanks to his/Ferrari's bright finish to 1987, but I wouldn't have said he was by far the favourite. Mansell was totally written off of course, thanks to Williams going to the unblown Judd.

I indeed remember Piquet as the major favourite for 1986 but Keke Rosberg was also a major favourite with his transfer to McLaren and he had a very dissapointing campaign.

Berger really was the big pre season favourite in 1988. He already was considered a favourite in the winter '87 but behind the Williams drivers (Piquet, Mansell), Senna (Lotus) and Prost (McLaren).

When Berger had his first full season (after being with ATS in '84) in '85 with Arrows he did a very solid job but didn't look that special since his teammate Thierry Boutsen was beating him. But when he moved to Benetton in '86 Berger and Teo Fabi were very very quick resulting in a surprise win at Mexico and the Ferrari contract. When Berger joined Ferrari the Italian team & fans were longing for another title since their last world champion was Jody Scheckter back in 1979. Because of Berger's nationality comparisons with Niki Lauda were made by the fans and that created a huge buzz around him.

In the final 2 races of 1987, in Japan & Australia, Berger completely dominated the field. In Suzuka he scored a pole and a win and in Adelaide he scored a triple: pole, win & fastest lap and his teammate Michele Alboreto finished 2nd: they were a lap ahead of the 3rd placed Benetton of Thierry Boutsen and 2 laps ahead of Jonathan Palmer's Tyrrell. The domination he showed in the final 2 1987 races and the comparisons between him and Niki Lauda made him by far the biggest title favourite for '88 during the winter break '87-'88, by far!

Edited by William Hunt, 10 July 2013 - 13:14.

[Collombin]

The domination he showed in the final 2 1987 races and the comparisons between him and Niki Lauda made him by far the biggest title favourite for '88 during the winter break '87-'88, by far!

I said he was a strong contender. He said at the end of his Adelaide interview with Murray that they would try to catch the championship next year - and I, for one, was fearful that he was right. I just didn't remember him being the far and away favourite to the extent that you say - but maybe we read different publications, or your memory is simply better than mine.

Speaking of Berger in 1988, I do however remember being stood at the end of the Hangar Straight being hugely impressed by his early pace in the heavy rain. I mention this only because it was 25 years ago almost to the hour.

[DutchQuicksilver]

2009 really comes to mind. No bookie even mentioned Jenson Button and Brawn as an outright favourite. I believe after his last pre season test where he blew all other laptimes away, the bookies only placed him around P6 or something.

2008 a bit as well. After winning the title in 2007, everyone believed Raikkonen had the 2008 title in the bag. He probably would have had it in the bag if Ferrari's car updates had suited him better than Massa. I mean, after the Spanish GP hattrick, Kimi looked on it. But unfortunately everything went wrong after that, with Spa as a real low.

[scheivlak]

I said he was a strong contender. He said at the end of his Adelaide interview with Murray that they would try to catch the championship next year - and I, for one, was fearful that he was right. I just didn't remember him being the far and away favourite to the extent that you say - but maybe we read different publications, or your memory is simply better than mine.

Speaking of Berger in 1988, I do however remember being stood at the end of the Hangar Straight being hugely impressed by his early pace in the heavy rain. I mention this only because it was 25 years ago almost to the hour.

Cimarosti in his 'Complete History of Grand Prix Motor Racing' recollects that Ferrari and McLaren were the joint favorites pre-season.

[MLC]

I said he was a strong contender. He said at the end of his Adelaide interview with Murray that they would try to catch the championship next year - and I, for one, was fearful that he was right. I just didn't remember him being the far and away favourite to the extent that you say - but maybe we read different publications, or your memory is simply better than mine.

Berger was definitely the favorite during the winter of '87 leading up to '88. He and Ferrari were fastest at most of the winter testing sessions, however, this was partly due to the fact that Mclaren weren't there. The new car (MP4/4) wasn't ready until 2 weeks before the first race in Brazil. They manged to take it to one test and straight off the transporter the car was quickest. Prost took it out for the initial shakedown and was comfortably fastest. When he brought it in to hand over to Senna he commented that he wasn't even trying to go fast. After that, everyone feared it would be a Mclaren walkover. I have a Road & Track pre-season issue that summed up Mclaren as "The best team with the best engine and the two best drivers. It's hard to imagine them being beaten."

[William Hunt]

1975 from Wikipedia: "After a strong finish to the 1974 season, many observers felt the Brabham team were favourites to win the 1975 title. The year started well, with an emotional first win for Carlos Pace at the Interlagos circuit in his native São Paulo. However, over the season tyre wear frequently slowed the cars, and the initial promise was not maintained."

Brabham (with Carlos Reutemann & Carlos Pace) had completely dominated the last round of 1974, the US GP with a 1-2 + a pole & fastest lap.

Edited by William Hunt, 11 July 2013 - 15:05.