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[Makarias]

The standings after Hungary:

Pos Name Tot Latest
1) Apex 1010 101
= Fisichella_2001 1010 101
= Grayson 1010 101
4) mark f1 1009 101
5) AcuraF1 1007 101
6) scheivlak 1006 101
7) DutchQuicksilver 1005 101
= skylark68 1005 97
= Wander 1005 101
10) wattoroos 1002 101
11) Wlleiotl 1001 97
12) August 1000 101
= Fastcake 1000 95
= KWSN-DSM 1000 101
15) Bleu 997 101
= Brawn BGP 001 997 90
17) Iscurrega 994 101
18) an1res 990 87
19) Estwald 986 101
= Makarias 986 101
21) kismet 985 95
22) Barty 983 81
= noikeee 983 101
24) Kalmake 979 92
25) Costaz 972 99
26) M2000-5 967 78
27) Anderis 963 82

Plenty of 101-ers this round, but mayhem is knocking on the door...

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
diRe 103,4 59,0 15
Verg 98,0 44,8 14
Hami 89,8 60,8 9
Ricc 79,4 40,7 9
Rosb 78,7 54,9 5
Räik 73,5 48,6 2
Vett 68,3 61,2 0
Suti 62,3 35,9 2
Webb 60,8 43,2 0
Alon 55,8 47,2 0
Mass 45,3 28,9 1
Gros 42,8 29,5 0
Butt 21,4 15,7 0
Pere 14,7 8,9 0
Hülk 11,7 8,2 0
Mald 2,0 1,1 0

Hammy, Kimi and Felipe all started beating guesses this round and that's fun news indeed!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Hamilton Räikkönen Vettel Webber Alonso
* Potential 349 * Potential 359 * Potential 397 * Potential 330 * Potential 358
* Forecast 236 M2000-5 275 * Forecast 327 Barty 242 skylark68 281
scheivlak 203 * Forecast 255 Anderis 280 Anderis 225 Bleu 275
August 181 Iscurrega 251 Makarias 276 Costaz 200 August 262
Grayson 165 noikeee 242 kismet 274 kismet 200 KWSN-DSM 260
Apex 160 Barty 222 Bleu 272 * Forecast 200 Iscurrega 254
KWSN-DSM 159 Costaz 221 noikeee 272 Fastcake 198 * Forecast 253
Makarias 158 Wander 196 Apex 270 DutchQuicksilver181 M2000-5 251
Fastcake 157 Anderis 188 August 267 an1res 180 an1res 250
DutchQuicksilver156 Estwald 185 wattoroos 263 Apex 180 Costaz 250
noikeee 152 Bleu 183 Iscurrega 260 Estwald 180 kismet 250
mark f1 150 Kalmake 183 scheivlak 260 mark f1 180 Kalmake 249
AcuraF1 145 AcuraF1 180 KWSN-DSM 259 Wlleiotl 180 AcuraF1 245
Fisichella_2001 138 Apex 180 Costaz 254 Fisichella_2001 175 Anderis 245
wattoroos 138 Wlleiotl 180 Fisichella_2001 252 Bleu 173 Wlleiotl 240
Wander 136 August 179 Wander 251 Kalmake 173 DutchQuicksilver236
Brawn BGP 001 133 skylark68 176 mark f1 250 skylark68 169 noikeee 236
Bleu 129 an1res 174 skylark68 250 AcuraF1 168 scheivlak 235
Iscurrega 128 mark f1 170 Wlleiotl 250 Wander 162 Estwald 230
Estwald 124 DutchQuicksilver167 DutchQuicksilver247 KWSN-DSM 160 mark f1 230
* Current 124 Makarias 166 Fastcake 247 Iscurrega 158 Fisichella_2001 229
Costaz 122 Fisichella_2001 165 Barty 241 Makarias 158 Fastcake 227
skylark68 120 scheivlak 163 Kalmake 239 wattoroos 158 Makarias 227
Wlleiotl 120 wattoroos 163 M2000-5 236 Grayson 155 wattoroos 223
kismet 118 Grayson 160 Estwald 235 noikeee 153 Wander 222
Kalmake 115 KWSN-DSM 158 AcuraF1 230 M2000-5 152 Apex 220
an1res 110 kismet 147 Grayson 230 scheivlak 145 Grayson 210
Anderis 105 * Current 134 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 144 Brawn BGP 001 207
Barty 105 Fastcake 128 Brawn BGP 001 211 August 116 Barty 192
M2000-5 101 Brawn BGP 001 123 * Current 172 * Current 105 * Current 133

Hamilton is likely to be halfway up his list very soon while Kimi will likely need a few more races for that. Vettel will need at least two more races to reach 211; high expectations take time to match.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Grosjean Button Massa Perez Maldonado
* Potential 274 * Potential 264 * Potential 286 * Potential 243 * Potential 226
Estwald 165 Costaz 248 an1res 210 Brawn BGP 001 201 Brawn BGP 001 87
an1res 150 Fastcake 241 M2000-5 199 August 170 mark f1 70
noikeee 148 Brawn BGP 001 222 Kalmake 192 Fastcake 161 Estwald 65
Anderis 142 Barty 209 kismet 175 Kalmake 154 Barty 60
Makarias 142 wattoroos 208 Anderis 170 Costaz 141 Wlleiotl 60
scheivlak 141 Iscurrega 201 Estwald 155 Fisichella_2001 141 AcuraF1 55
Kalmake 134 Wlleiotl 200 noikeee 150 Grayson 140 Grayson 55
AcuraF1 131 kismet 199 skylark68 144 wattoroos 133 DutchQuicksilver 54
Wander 124 August 197 Bleu 140 Iscurrega 132 skylark68 54
skylark68 122 AcuraF1 195 Makarias 139 Makarias 129 Anderis 50
M2000-5 121 Bleu 190 DutchQuicksilver135 DutchQuicksilver128 Apex 50
mark f1 120 DutchQuicksilver190 Wander 134 KWSN-DSM 125 KWSN-DSM 50
wattoroos 118 Wander 185 wattoroos 133 Wander 122 Makarias 50
Costaz 114 Fisichella_2001 182 Costaz 132 Barty 121 Fastcake 48
Fisichella_2001 114 Apex 180 Fisichella_2001 130 Wlleiotl 120 August 47
Brawn BGP 001 113 Grayson 175 Iscurrega 130 skylark68 116 kismet 47
Grayson 110 mark f1 170 mark f1 130 Anderis 114 M2000-5 47
KWSN-DSM 105 skylark68 170 AcuraF1 121 Apex 110 Bleu 45
Apex 100 Makarias 164 Apex 120 mark f1 104 Fisichella_2001 45
DutchQuicksilver100 scheivlak 164 Grayson 120 Bleu 103 scheivlak 45
Iscurrega 100 KWSN-DSM 157 * Forecast 116 kismet 101 Wander 45
kismet 99 M2000-5 157 KWSN-DSM 115 Estwald 100 Iscurrega 42
* Forecast 93 noikeee 151 Brawn BGP 001 111 noikeee 98 noikeee 41
Barty 89 an1res 150 scheivlak 110 an1res 90 an1res 40
Wlleiotl 80 Estwald 145 Wlleiotl 100 scheivlak 88 wattoroos 38
Bleu 76 Kalmake 145 August 91 AcuraF1 84 Costaz 31
Fastcake 72 Anderis 127 Fastcake 91 M2000-5 82 Kalmake 30
August 63 * Forecast 74 * Current 61 * Forecast 34 * Forecast 2
* Current 49 * Current 39 Barty 60 * Current 18 * Current 1

First point for Maldonado! Needless to say, the Williams season is very disappointing so far. At least the McLarens have started scoring points lately and can beat Force India in the WCC.

The PTPC forecast

Name Forecast +/-
scheivlak 1577,6 11,8
Apex 1558,4 5,4
KWSN-DSM 1553,2 2,5
noikeee 1551,5 7,4
Iscurrega 1547,2 12,2
AcuraF1 1543,5 7,4
DutchQuicksilver 1541,5 7,4
mark f1 1528,1 4,8
Costaz 1513,0 10,6
Fisichella_2001 1512,5 7,4
an1res 1511,5 7,4
Bleu 1505,1 -6,1
Anderis 1505,0 10,6
skylark68 1504,2 0,4
kismet 1501,7 5,7
M2000-5 1496,7 12,0
Makarias 1496,5 7,4
Wander 1496,5 7,4
Grayson 1496,2 2,9
Wlleiotl 1496,2 0,4
Estwald 1495,2 6,1
Kalmake 1491,5 7,4
wattoroos 1478,2 2,5
Fastcake 1459,5 6,9
August 1458,9 -2,0
Barty 1439,7 6,0
Brawn BGP 001 1367,6 11,8

Button and Grosjean contributed to a slightly upwards trend in forecasts despite Lewis' win not being of any help.

Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Force India (nee Jordan/Midland/Spyker) team through the years:

Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess
AD Points pts % pts % %
2000 442 129.9 29.4 170 38.5 130,9
2001 442 135.0 30.5 179 40.5 132,6
2002 442 136.9 31.0 221 50.0 161,4
2003 624 201.4 32.3 158 25.3 78,4
2004 702 164.7 23.5 262 37.3 159,1
2005 741 185.6 25.0 100 13.5 53,9
2006 702 125.3 17.9 201 28.6 160,4
2007 663 187.8 28.3 204 30.8 108,6
2008 702 202.2 28.8 172 24.5 85,1
2009 731 175.4 24.0 77 10.5 43,9
2010 1919 444.3 23.2 396 20.6 89,1
2011 1919 433.0 22.6 375 19.5 86,6
2012 2020 271.5 13.4 400 19.8 147,3

*The franchise has a 7/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far.
*After a competitive end of the nineties, Jordan met the new millenium with high expectations but instead started going downhill, and the team failed to live up to expectations for the first five seasons of PTPC.
*Most disappointing seasons in 2005 (tyres) and 2009 (KERS).
*Consistently scoring around 20% of all WCC points lately, which is a bit less than the heydays but still respectable.
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.

[KWSN - DSM]

I am sitting pretty, but with half a season to run that can naturally go either way. Button, Perez and Maldonado is bound to cost me. Not sure whom I can count on gaining from, maybe Massa.