41 replies to this topic

[micktosin]

Following Michael Schumacher's admission, about not been Physcially and mentally able to continue at top level for another year, that got me thinking what's the typical age threshold of mordern F1 drivers of which their performance tends to drop?

Edited by micktosin, 03 August 2013 - 03:31.

[Winter98]

Following Michael Schumacher's admission, about not been Physcially and mentally able to continue at top level for another year, that got me thinking what's the typical age threshold of mordern F1 drivers of which their performance tends to drop?

Very very few athletes don't start to decline after 34 or 35.

Can anyone name any sportsman who has done it? Perhaps in golf?

Edited by Winter98, 03 August 2013 - 06:31.

[Muppetmad]

Very very few athletes don't start to decline after 34 or 35.

Can anyone name any sportsman who has done it? Perhaps in golf?

It's fairly common in IndyCars: Franchitti is competitive at 40; Kanaan is competitive at 38; Castroneves currently leads the championship at 38. Since he was 34, Franchitti has won four IndyCar titles and two Indy 500s.

In regards to F1, I think it's only natural to see a slight drop off after mid 30s, but that doesn't mean a driver still can't be competitive; Barrichello was, as was Schumacher.

Edited by Muppetmad, 03 August 2013 - 06:40.

[Thomas99]

Mid 30's is the time they start to decline and they are really past the bell curve by 40 imo.

Peter Windsor was saying on his most recent show he thinks Raikkonen is 3 tenths slower than in his prime

[Trust]

Mid 30's is the time they start to decline and they are really past the bell curve by 40 imo.

Peter Windsor was saying on his most recent show he thinks Raikkonen is 3 tenths slower than in his prime

Wonder what math did he do to get to those 3 tenths.

[bourbon]

Wonder what math did he do to get to those 3 tenths.

Not required, it was his opinion. But no worries - I think Kimi is 3 tenths faster than he used to be, so it all comes clean in the wash.

[undersquare]

I worked out the average age of the wdc a couple of years ago and it was 29.x. It'll be dropping a bit with Vettel right now, but I reckon that's around the peak. Then the decline is very gradual to start with, until the errors really start to mount up from around 35-36.

[apoka]

I worked out the average age of the wdc a couple of years ago and it was 29.x. It'll be dropping a bit with Vettel right now, but I reckon that's around the peak. Then the decline is very gradual to start with, until the errors really start to mount up from around 35-36.

So, we have 4 more years until Vettel peaks. Scary (for some).

Personally, I think it also depends a lo on when you started to perform a sport full time. I believe the earlier you start, the earlier you retire.

[CoolBreeze]

Very very few athletes don't start to decline after 34 or 35.

Can anyone name any sportsman who has done it? Perhaps in golf?

Ryan Giggs, and still doing it.

[Wander]

Some hockey players like Teemu Selänne stay highly competitive into their 40s. In F1 I think it's still possible in special cases.

[Requiem84]

Chess players lose their ability to focus for longer times after 40-45 or so.

Schumacher started to make focus related errors after his comeback. Connection here?;)

[Risil]

Schumacher was always the most error-prone of the greats.

[handel]

Doesn't this purely depend on the characteristics of the sport?

Indycar isn't quite as fast as F1, G forces are lower, braking distances are longer. That would explain why those drivers are able to extend their careers somewhat. Same with Touring cars really.

With F1 the way it is, you would have to say it's late 30s and depends on the driver and their fitness. Can you imagine Kimi able to operate at the level Shumi was doing last season at the same age?

I'd be interested if the rule changes next year and the vast amount of new knowledge including completely different engine characteristics had any bearing on Webber jumping ship. I think he commented that he might has well do his learning in a series that he sees his long-term future in.

[undersquare]

So, we have 4 more years until Vettel peaks. Scary (for some).

Personally, I think it also depends a lo on when you started to perform a sport full time. I believe the earlier you start, the earlier you retire.

Yep Sebi is a massive problem

I agree time in the sport is one factor, but as far as age itself is concerned I reckon the optimum is around 29-30, then 36 is about the oldest they can hang on in a top team before big cracks start to appear.

[gm914]

There are a few guys on the NASCAR circuit in their 40's and, whilst arguably not at the top of their game, are competing for wins.
Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle etc
Theres a lot of guys in their mid-late 30's.

Mark Martin is 54 and has a daily workout regimen that would put you and I in traction.

And Morgan Shepherd still turns up week in week out at the amazing age of 71. Although he's a start-n-parker, and I think Jesus does most of the driving.

[kimster89]

We can see Webber how he detoriates season by season. I think after 35 your are very much on the path down. Kimi knows that so his time is runnig out. I think Alonso is past his prime to. Lewis is in his prime years right know, while Vettel will also soon reach his peak.

[1Devil1]

Schumacher was always the most error-prone of the greats.

Yeah, of course - Senna never lost his car, it was much more common in the 80s/90s to lose the car because drivers like Senna or Schumacher drove on the limit the whole race. Especially Schumacher had to drive to the limit because otherwise he wouldn't have any change against the mighty McLaren or Williams. Another aspect - you could bin your car into the wall but you had the change to come back by winning the next two races. Since 2003 consistency is the key to win the championship (Alonso for example).

[enrm6]

I would say its as much associated with what you typically accumulate with age: partner, kids, perspective.

Whilst there is some performance degradation to to physicaly ageing it is more likely to be an inevitable lack of desire to give F1 100% of your life when at some point drivers will realise there are some things more important.

[Winter98]

It's fairly common in IndyCars: Franchitti is competitive at 40; Kanaan is competitive at 38; Castroneves currently leads the championship at 38. Since he was 34, Franchitti has won four IndyCar titles and two Indy 500s.

In regards to F1, I think it's only natural to see a slight drop off after mid 30s, but that doesn't mean a driver still can't be competitive; Barrichello was, as was Schumacher.

Sorry I wasn't clear. I understand that some drivers can be competitive into their forties.

I meant that they aren't at their peak after 34 or 35.

[Winter98]

Ryan Giggs, and still doing it.

But is he still as good as he was at 30? Honest question as I had to google him to find out who he was.

[Jimisgod]

Doesn't this purely depend on the characteristics of the sport?

Indycar isn't quite as fast as F1, G forces are lower, braking distances are longer. That would explain why those drivers are ayble to extend their careers somewhat. Same with Touring cars really.

With F1 the way it is, you would have to say it's late 30s and depends on the driver and their fitness. Can you imagine Kimi able to operate at the level Shumi was doing last season at the same age?

I'd be interested if the rule changes next year and the vast amount of new knowledge including completely different engine characteristics had any bearing on Webber jumping ship. I think he commented that he might has well do his learning in a series that he sees his long-term future in.

Unless the new DW12 cars are much slower than I thought, I think you will find Indycars are faster than F1...

[Winter98]

Some hockey players like Teemu Selänne stay highly competitive into their 40s. In F1 I think it's still possible in special cases.

Teemu Selanne is performing amazingly well at his age, but he is still only a shadow of what he once was. One of the all time greats IMO.

[Ross Stonefeld]

Unless the new DW12 cars are much slower than I thought, I think you will find Indycars are faster than F1...

Indycars are 'faster' because they race on an oval, but an F1 car will beat them on every road course.

But an Indycar is more physical to drive because there's no power steering and the G-forces aren't that much lower.

[Myrvold]

But an Indycar is more physical to drive because there's no power steering and the G-forces aren't that much lower.

I also imagine it is harder to drive on ovals like Texas, due to high g-forces and very little time to relax.

[travbrad]

Bernard Hopkins became a LHW boxing champion again earlier this year at 48 years old. He did start to decline many years ago however. He is just a really crafty/smart fighter who forces his opponents to play his game.

I agree around 35 is when most professional athletes start to decline, but it of course varies depending on the person and the sport. Just because someone has begun to decline doesn't mean they can't be seriously competitive either, particularly if they were one of the top competitors in their sport.

[Muppetmad]

Sorry I wasn't clear. I understand that some drivers can be competitive into their forties.

I meant that they aren't at their peak after 34 or 35.

Fair enough, sorry for misunderstanding you!

[holiday]

Following Michael Schumacher's admission, about not been Physcially and mentally able to continue at top level for another year, that got me thinking what's the typical age threshold of mordern F1 drivers of which their performance tends to drop?

36-37 has been pretty much established by the driver's market of the last 15 years or so as best before date (=retirement age).

So I would say somewhere around 32-34.

That does not mean though that drivers with older age cannot consistently perform well. Prost, for one, drove in 1990 superbly throughout the year when he was 35. But the average performance is likely to drop.

Btw I am surprised at how well the Klitschkos brothers still box at their age. Almost no signs of age other than greying hair. IMO they are the best heavyweight champions in their age group for many decades. Clearly better than both Ali and Tyson were at their age, only Lennox Lewis comes near.

Edited by holiday, 03 August 2013 - 18:12.

[ardbeg]

It depends a lot on the hunger. When you have done something for 30 years (which a modern F1 driver have at 38), you start thinking. You get new interests. You want to enjoy another type of life. Or you don't. I think those who manage to keep their interest and level of comittment intact can keep "in shape" longer.

If you want to live on talent alone, your decline starts early.

[fisssssi]

I went to Winbledon this year and was fortunate enough to see Kimiko Date-Krumm play on centre court in the 3rd round. Granted she lost in straight sets, but I was shocked afterwards when I googled her and her found out her age. Amazing!

[karne]

See, I disagree that Webber is getting noticeably worse. I think he is losing his speed bit-by-tiny-bit, but it's not a massive drop. It looks worse than it is because of his team/mate.

Look at his last three races in particular. Silverstone, Germany, Hungary. All stunning, outstanding drives through the field, with not a single major error on his part. Something few younger drivers could do, and not that many older ones either, but he did them. That's not the characteristic of someone who's "lost it", especially when you consider that his "launch pad" for all three drives wasn't his fault anyway.

Not that I'm saying Webber's peaking now - I think in terms of skill he's still riding an incredible peak, but in everything else, his best years were wasted in that ****ing useless piece of sh*t Williams.

[Thomas99]

See, I disagree that Webber is getting noticeably worse. I think he is losing his speed bit-by-tiny-bit, but it's not a massive drop. It looks worse than it is because of his team/mate.

Look at his last three races in particular. Silverstone, Germany, Hungary. All stunning, outstanding drives through the field, with not a single major error on his part. Something few younger drivers could do, and not that many older ones either, but he did them. That's not the characteristic of someone who's "lost it", especially when you consider that his "launch pad" for all three drives wasn't his fault anyway.

Not that I'm saying Webber's peaking now - I think in terms of skill he's still riding an incredible peak, but in everything else, his best years were wasted in that ****ing useless piece of sh*t Williams.

The problem for Mark is the team isn't maximizing his results. He could have won as many as 3 races this year.

[George Costanza]

Nigel Mansell won in 1992 and he was 39 wasn't he? Alain Prost was 38 when he won his 4th title...

[Winter98]

Nigel Mansell won in 1992 and he was 39 wasn't he? Alain Prost was 38 when he won his 4th title...

IMO kids are being so well trained these days, that the old folks are going to have a harder and harder time keeping up, certainly harder than 20 years ago. Pretty hard to be the "Wily Veteran" when the top drivers at 30 know nearly everything you do.

Edited by Winter98, 04 August 2013 - 05:58.

[undersquare]

Nigel Mansell won in 1992 and he was 39 wasn't he? Alain Prost was 38 when he won his 4th title...

Discussing Age doesn't make car advantage disappear suddenly...

[Risil]

Discussing Age doesn't make car advantage disappear suddenly...

What's the maximum age for a modern F1 car at the top level?

[starp]

I feel that Alonso has shown decline over the last year or so. Button too. It's hard to tell with Raikkonen because he's been sensational but possibly by racecraft rather than outright speed. F1 could get very boring if all there are are Vettel and Hamilton soon. I'm hoping Raikkonen will stay stronger for a few more years, that decline is partly "loss of drive" rather than all physiological aging. maybe his rally break rejuvenated his drive.

[karne]

IMO kids are being so well trained these days, that the old folks are going to have a harder and harder time keeping up, certainly harder than 20 years ago. Pretty hard to be the "Wily Veteran" when the top drivers at 30 know nearly everything you do.

I don't know about that, either. How many of the younger drivers on the grid who are "so well trained" could handle having no working diff in the car? Not that many, I'd wager. There are a lot of things based on experience, too. And varied experience. That's why the drivers who've come up from little backmarker useless teams, through midfield teams and then into bigger teams are so much better, because they've had so much experience that they can handle anything the car or the race throws at them.

[Winter98]

I don't know about that, either. How many of the younger drivers on the grid who are "so well trained" could handle having no working diff in the car? Not that many, I'd wager. There are a lot of things based on experience, too. And varied experience. That's why the drivers who've come up from little backmarker useless teams, through midfield teams and then into bigger teams are so much better, because they've had so much experience that they can handle anything the car or the race throws at them.

I agree with you Karne.

IMO young drivers are a lot better trained today than they were 20 years ago (I think, would you agree?), and that will make it harder for a 38+ year old to win today than twenty years ago.

[Collombin]

Very very few athletes don't start to decline after 34 or 35.

Can anyone name any sportsman who has done it? Perhaps in golf?

Downhill skier Didier Cuche was far more successful in his 30s than he ever was in his 20s, and he is far from being an exception (Eberharter, Walchhofer, Kroell, Buechel, Alphand).

[Winter98]

Downhill skier Didier Cuche was far more successful in his 30s than he ever was in his 20s, and he is far from being an exception (Eberharter, Walchhofer, Kroell, Buechel, Alphand).

Cool. Thanks for the info EB. I checked out Didier Cuche and you are correct.

I was checking out Walchhofer, and he seems to have been better in his early thirties, winning titles (according to wikipedia) at 30, 31, and 35. Haven't checked the others.

[Collombin]

I was checking out Walchhofer, and he seems to have been better in his early thirties, winning titles (according to wikipedia) at 30, 31, and 35. Haven't checked the others.

It's a unfathomably recent trend though - when I started watching in the early 80s top racers were all washed up at 26.

[Winter98]

It's a unfathomably recent trend though - when I started watching in the early 80s top racers were all washed up at 26.

Of the top of my head, I would say it's improved training techniques, and professional athletes staying in far better shape than they did in previous years.

In autosports I don't think this applies as much, because (and correct me if I'm wrong) until the last couple of decades or so, there weren't many under 16s competing. In skiing kids have always had the opportunity to start very young, even at 3 years old, so by the time they hit 18, they had 15 years experience. For a driver starting at age 16 to gain that equivalent 15 years experience meant he was 31 years old, and thus experience could more than compensate for the slight loss in reflexes (mentally and physically) we suffer as we age.

IMO, the kids coming up in autosports today have far more experience by the time they hit 20 than their predecessors, and that's why we are seeing the "youngest" records being consistently broken.

Edited by Winter98, 04 August 2013 - 15:06.