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Italian Grand Prix Build Up


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#1 SamH123

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:18

Seems like a rare Monza weekend where weather might play a significant part:

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather 55m

#F1 #MONZA Latest model output, & different handling of trough disruption, paints a v unsettled weekend w rain/showers, some heavy: Jury out

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather 53m

#F1 #MONZA Similar complexity re trough disruption meant Spa f'cast went to the wire; may see same story for Monza given model disparities!

 

Rain might suit Red Bull :/  I was thinking Vettel might only make 3rd/4th in the dry

 

What are people's predictions?

Anyone going?


Edited by SamH123, 02 September 2013 - 10:20.


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#2 Paul Parker

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:23

Whatever else transpires I hope that McLaren wont mismanage Button's pit stop strategy yet again.



#3 slmk

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:25

Actually, no. Rain might help others catch up to RBR. Ferrari will be no doubt disappointed as they had a good package in the dry at Spa.



#4 SamH123

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:35

Actually, no. Rain might help others catch up to RBR. Ferrari will be no doubt disappointed as they had a good package in the dry at Spa.

 

Well sure it might, but over the season RB have been the strongest in wet conditions, it was just Spa which was an exception.



#5 scheivlak

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:35

 

Rain might suit Red Bull 

 

Perhaps not - it makes mechanical grip more important and aerodynamic grip less. 

 

Anyway, every time it rained this year Mercedes seemed pretty fast (from what I remember).



#6 Zava

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:44

Perhaps not - it makes mechanical grip more important and aerodynamic grip less.  Anyway, every time it rained this year Mercedes seemed pretty fast (from what I remember).


yet every time rain played a part in a q3 or a race, it was won by Vettel, except for spa quali of course. Actually he's yet to score a full dry pole this year!

#7 ElDictatore

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:47

Lets face it people. Rain or not, everything suits Red Bull.



#8 Trust

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:47

What rain? By my calculations it we'll be dry weekend with some clouds, but not high chance of rain. Certainly a lot less than at Spa.



#9 rasul

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:50

Lets face it people. Rain or not, everything suits Red Bull.

Monza doesn't suit Red Bull, rain or not.



#10 selespeed

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 10:55

What rain? By my calculations it we'll be dry weekend with some clouds, but not high chance of rain. Certainly a lot less than at Spa.

 

yr.no doesn't agree with you...

 

http://www.yr.no/ste...tidsvarsel.html



#11 ConsiderAndGo

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 11:14

Monza doesn't suit Red Bull, rain or not.

 

Did you watch Spa? Redbull will demolish once again at Monza.



#12 Shiroo

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 11:18

Did you watch Spa? Redbull will demolish once again at Monza.

 

Vettel*



#13 Seanspeed

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 11:24

Spa performance isn't necessarily a great indicator of Monza performance.  The d/f requirements can be similar in ways, but they're still different sorts of tracks, Monza being far more demanding on brakes and suspension. 



#14 rasul

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 11:30

Did you watch Spa? Redbull will demolish once again at Monza.

Monza is different from Spa.

And historically, Red Bull are actually not that bad at Spa and pretty much always weak at Monza.  Their only podium (and win) at Monza was in 2011, their most dominant year. Monza is their weakest track.  Just compare: 

Red Bull's podiums at Spa: Vettel - 2 wins, 1 second place, 1 third place; Webber has 2 second places as well.

Red Bull's podiums at Monza: Vettel - 1 win.

 


Edited by rasul, 02 September 2013 - 11:34.


#15 TurboF1

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 11:34

Red Bull have addressed their perceived weakness at low df tracks. They dominated Canada by a second a lap in the race, dominated spa at the same pace and will dominate Monza as well. This championship is over. There was a glimpse of hope at Silverstone, but not anymore. Any more of this Shit and I'm done with F1. It's back to the Schumacher bore fest all over again

#16 JHSingo

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 11:36

What rain? By my calculations it we'll be dry weekend with some clouds, but not high chance of rain. Certainly a lot less than at Spa.

 

Calculations? Did you come to that conclusion from an iPhone app, or are you a meterologist?

 

This year, whenever they've predicted rain, it hasn't rained, so it'll be fine and dry throughout the weekend. That's my highly scientic analysis. :)



#17 Kelateboy

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 13:22

Monza doesn't suit Red Bull, rain or not.

 

RB9 will be competitive at Monza from the get go. One of the very few times this season where I am absolutely sure that RB9 will be thereabout or better than W04. But don't discount F138 either because in the last 2 low-downforce tracks this year at Spa and Canada, Alonso finished 2nd to Vettel in both races.

 

I am expecting and hoping for a bone-dry weekend.



#18 V3TT3L

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 14:55

Rain might suit Red Bull

 

Neweys DOES have an advantage...

http://mccabism.blog...igh-taylor.html

 

What fascinates Adrian about yachts, in particular, is the fact that they cleave through two different fluids: air and water. In this sense, the hydrodynamical challenage of yachting design is quite different to that faced by an automobile aerodynamicst, who must study only the effect of one fluid, the air.

Except, that is, when it rains, and a film of water lies upon the surface of the road...

...

It might, however, be possible to exploit the complex processes that occur at the contact boundary between the air and water when accelerated by the aerodynamic surfaces of a Formula 1 car. 

Liquid water is denser than air, and when fluids of different densities are subjected to acceleration, Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities result in turbulent mixing of the fluids. 



#19 TimRTC

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 15:07

Anyone who has raced in F3 will do fine - they always seem to have wet Monza races.

 

I just hope if it does rain, they let them race and don't just red flag or run the whole time behind a safety car.



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#20 SpaMaster

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 16:43

Monza is one of the most challenging tracks when it rains. It is just that it does not rain often during the F1 races. The thin wings that the track requires for set-up makes it very tricky when it rains.



#21 peroa

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 16:46

Looks like some heavy rain forecast.

http://www.yr.no/pla...Milan/long.html



#22 Baddoer

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 17:12

This going to be most boring race for a looooong time.



#23 Disgrace

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 17:15

Spa was only a week ago.



#24 Gorma

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 17:37

Looks like some heavy rain forecast.

http://www.yr.no/pla...Milan/long.html

Great news!



#25 fabr68

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 17:43

I would not get too excited just yet

 

http://www.weather.c...a ITXX0049:1:IT



#26 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 18:36

Impossible to predict with the weather. Still, as long as it's not like the Friday at Monza 08 where the pitlane was flooded, it was so dark it was ridiculous, and it was barely safe enough to go out at times.



#27 Antonov

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 19:01

I witnessed that in person. I was walking through the park and I couldn't see where I was going. Stuff from nightmares really. 



#28 vista

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 19:09

I think it will be a incredibly boring race with one stop for everyone as Pirelli is damn conservative again.



#29 Lights

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Posted 02 September 2013 - 19:15

After qualifying last week we also thought the race was going to be wet, right? I would take yr.no over weather.com but it's far too early to make any predictions now. Let's see in a few days.



#30 KirilVarbanov

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 07:31

Ahead of Monza where engines are on full load, here are some of the secrets behind the heads and pneumatics - http://f1framework.b...inder-head.html



#31 Yoshi

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 07:41

Please no rain during the Monza weekend.



#32 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:20

1 advantage of rain during the race (well, if it's heavy, but not so heavy that it requires an SC/red flag) is the race will last a bit longer (I know I saw someone mentioning after SPA, might have been DMN that all races should last a minimum of 90mins (in a way I agree, as Monza and Spa in particular are too short). I'd say either 90mins or the first lap completed after 305km should be the race distance, whichever comes last (so Singapore for example would be 305km as it lasts more than 90mins anyway, whereas Monza would be 90mins as it usually only lasts around 75-80mins).



#33 mclara

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:29

1 advantage of rain during the race (well, if it's heavy, but not so heavy that it requires an SC/red flag) is the race will last a bit longer (I know I saw someone mentioning after SPA, might have been DMN that all races should last a minimum of 90mins (in a way I agree, as Monza and Spa in particular are too short). I'd say either 90mins or the first lap completed after 305km should be the race distance, whichever comes last (so Singapore for example would be 305km as it lasts more than 90mins anyway, whereas Monza would be 90mins as it usually only lasts around 75-80mins).

 

Yes it will be longer due to the ridiculous use of saftey car. :rotfl:



#34 Antonov

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:34

I agree that the Monza race is too short. It's one of the reasons why I give it a miss as a fan (attending I mean), because tracktime is relatively short.

 

Also, although it is labelled a classic, I can't truly remember a 'classic' RACE (in the sense of overtaking like Suzuka 2005, Spa 2004, heck even Abu Dhabi 2012) here. It's one of those races with a lot of anticipation but which leaves you disappointed come Sunday afternoon 15h20 local time.

 

oh yes, one more thing: the reprofiled first chicane (since 2000) wrecked it for me. Old Retifilio allowed you to take speed through the double chicane. This is just too slow and one of the most uninspiring corners I can imagine.


Edited by Antonov, 03 September 2013 - 10:35.


#35 HoldenRT

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:41

Spa race was pretty dull and some rain wouldn't hurt.  What made Spa worse was the hint of rain, but it never showed up.  No one likes to see stoppages or red flags but some mixed strategies and changable conditions wouldn't hurt.. as Monza is mostly driving in a straight line and it's the shortest race on the calender due to the highest average speeds.  Combine that with being soft on the tyres (due to driving straight most of the time and low downforce) and it's a very predictable race strategy wise.  It's the closest F1 gets to driving on ovals.  And some rain never hurts.



#36 Antonov

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:50

No one likes to see [...] red flags

 

actually I do :lol:



#37 Blackmore

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:55

I expect a fight between RBR, Mercedes and Ferrari. Yeah, no one saw that one coming :p

 

Monza usually has boring races after the opening laps. It is always odd to hear people complain about boring Tilke races, while the 'classics' like Monza, Silverstone, Monaco, Suzuka, Hockenheim, Nurburgring are more boring in general. But people add value to them because of nostalgia.



#38 Antonov

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 10:56

no complaining about the Nurburgring. Past 2 editions have been great :up:



#39 Tron

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 11:31

I agree that the Monza race is too short. It's one of the reasons why I give it a miss as a fan (attending I mean), because tracktime is relatively short.

 

Also, although it is labelled a classic, I can't truly remember a 'classic' RACE (in the sense of overtaking like Suzuka 2005, Spa 2004, heck even Abu Dhabi 2012) here. It's one of those races with a lot of anticipation but which leaves you disappointed come Sunday afternoon 15h20 local time.

 

oh yes, one more thing: the reprofiled first chicane (since 2000) wrecked it for me. Old Retifilio allowed you to take speed through the double chicane. This is just too slow and one of the most uninspiring corners I can imagine.

 

I remember 2008 being a classic of over taking under the rain.



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#40 Tron

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 11:34

Stefano must be already breaking down from sleepless nights this week.

 

This race is like a second championship for Ferrari, and winning it well, is all that can salvage this bitter season for them, also on morale value for the remaining races.



#41 Amanda1978

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 11:39

Heading there from Dublin airport early on Friday morning.  This will be my 7th Italian GP and I'm looking forward to it as much as ever!  Checked the weather forcast and at the moment it looks like it will be hot and dry. :cool:



#42 Amanda1978

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 11:42

I witnessed that in person. I was walking through the park and I couldn't see where I was going. Stuff from nightmares really. 

 

I did too.  Couldn't believe how dark it got.



#43 Antonov

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 12:09

Stefano must be already breaking down from sleepless nights this week.

 

This race is like a second championship for Ferrari, and winning it well, is all that can salvage this bitter season for them, also on morale value for the remaining races.

 

not sure why people write Ferrari off already. They seemed competitive to me in Spa, even if the result was 2nd, a long way behind Vettel.



#44 Antonov

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 12:14

I had shelter on Friday in 2008 thankfully :lol:

 

P9120083_zps191c2df1.jpg



#45 Amanda1978

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 12:41

Antonov,

 

You were lucky.  I had a rain poncho on but the water ran underneath it and my jeans were soaked through. 



#46 FastnLoud

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 14:17

Canada - Redbull destroy everyone, Spa - Redbull Destroy everyone, Monza , Redbull Destroy everyone.

 

Have to wait till Singapore until Lewis has an chance where the car can match Redbull like last year.



#47 Juggles

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 14:40

I'd love a wet race, we haven't had one this year and Monza 2008 was fantastic. I won't hold my breath though; Spa was a massive let down after all those bold predictions of thunderstorms at 2pm local time.

 

If it's dry then Vettel, Alonso and someone else will share the podium.



#48 SamH123

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 14:43

I don't even think Vettel would have got dry pole in Spa (I rewatched Q2 on the app, did not seem to have any pace in hand over Ferrari/Lotus over 1 lap, they can't sandbag when the Q3 cut off was only about 4 tenths slower)

 

Will be amazed if he gets pole (if it's dry) on Saturday. 



#49 Kelateboy

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 15:23

Spa performance isn't necessarily a great indicator of Monza performance.  The d/f requirements can be similar in ways, but they're still different sorts of tracks, Monza being far more demanding on brakes and suspension. 

 

Monza might be far more demanding on brakes and suspension than Spa, but they are still nowhere compared to Canada. Canada is the hardest circuit on brakes and arguably too on suspension, as the ability to ride the kerbs is paramount to a good lap time on GV circuit. I would say the status quo at Monza will be maintained as with Spa and Canada with RBR, MGP and Ferrari fighting for the top honor in the qualifying and the race.

 

Canadian GP 2013

1. Vettel

2. Alonso

3. Hamilton

4. Webber

5. Rosberg

 

Spa GP 2013

1. Vettel

2. Alonso

3. Hamilton

4. Rosberg

5. Webber



#50 Seanspeed

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 17:46

Monza might be far more demanding on brakes and suspension than Spa, but they are still nowhere compared to Canada. Canada is the hardest circuit on brakes and arguably too on suspension, as the ability to ride the kerbs is paramount to a good lap time on GV circuit. I would say the status quo at Monza will be maintained as with Spa and Canada with RBR, MGP and Ferrari fighting for the top honor in the qualifying and the race.

So you're arguing that Canada is a good indicator of Spa performance?   

 

Cuz I would certainly not agree with that.  Again, similar downforce requirements but different sorts of tracks.  Just because they had similar results doesn't automatically make it a reliable indicator.  Especially considering the different tires they used and all.  Teams like Toro Rosso and McLaren certainly didn't have similar sorts of performances.