Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Apex 1111 101 = Grayson 1111 101 3) Fisichella_2001 1110 100 = mark f1 1110 101 5) AcuraF1 1108 101 6) scheivlak 1107 101 7) DutchQuicksilver 1105 100 8) Wander 1102 97 9) KWSN-DSM 1101 101 10) Fastcake 1100 100 11) August 1093 93 = wattoroos 1093 91 13) Brawn BGP 001 1092 95 14) skylark68 1090 85 15) Makarias 1086 100 = Wlleiotl 1086 85 17) noikeee 1082 99 18) Iscurrega 1081 87 19) an1res 1076 86 = Bleu 1076 79 21) Estwald 1071 85 22) Kalmake 1065 86 23) kismet 1059 74 24) Barty 1051 68 25) Anderis 1046 83 26) Costaz 1045 73 27) M2000-5 1040 73What the hell, still all these 101-scorers! Loosen up already!
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat
% % #
diRe 103,4 59,0 15
Hami 100,7 68,1 16
Verg 98,0 44,8 14
Rosb 89,9 62,7 8
Ricc 86,6 44,4 11
Vett 78,2 70,1 0
Räik 73,5 48,6 2
Suti 67,7 39,1 3
Webb 66,6 47,3 0
Alon 63,3 53,5 0
Mass 49,7 31,8 1
Gros 46,3 31,9 0
Butt 25,8 18,9 0
Pere 14,7 8,9 0
Hülk 11,7 8,2 0
Mald 2,0 1,1 0
Hamilton now past his 100% mark!EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Alonso Hamilton Rosberg Webber * Potential 397 * Potential 351 * Potential 339 * Potential 296 * Potential 315 * Forecast 340 skylark68 281 * Forecast 240 * Forecast 166 Barty 242 Anderis 280 Bleu 275 scheivlak 203 scheivlak 152 Anderis 225 Makarias 276 August 262 August 181 an1res 140 Costaz 200 kismet 274 * Forecast 261 Grayson 165 AcuraF1 139 kismet 200 Bleu 272 KWSN-DSM 260 Apex 160 KWSN-DSM 138 * Forecast 199 noikeee 272 Iscurrega 254 KWSN-DSM 159 Kalmake 130 Fastcake 198 Apex 270 M2000-5 251 Makarias 158 Grayson 125 DutchQuicksilver181 August 267 an1res 250 Fastcake 157 DutchQuicksilver124 an1res 180 wattoroos 263 Costaz 250 DutchQuicksilver156 Makarias 118 Apex 180 Iscurrega 260 kismet 250 noikeee 152 Fastcake 117 Estwald 180 scheivlak 260 Kalmake 249 mark f1 150 Estwald 115 mark f1 180 KWSN-DSM 259 AcuraF1 245 AcuraF1 145 Fisichella_2001 112 Wlleiotl 180 Costaz 254 Anderis 245 * Current 139 Brawn BGP 001 111 Fisichella_2001 175 Fisichella_2001 252 Wlleiotl 240 Fisichella_2001 138 noikeee 105 Bleu 173 Wander 251 DutchQuicksilver236 wattoroos 138 Wander 105 Kalmake 173 mark f1 250 noikeee 236 Wander 136 skylark68 104 skylark68 169 skylark68 250 scheivlak 235 Brawn BGP 001 133 Anderis 100 AcuraF1 168 Wlleiotl 250 Estwald 230 Bleu 129 Apex 100 Wander 162 DutchQuicksilver247 mark f1 230 Iscurrega 128 mark f1 100 KWSN-DSM 160 Fastcake 247 Fisichella_2001 229 Estwald 124 Wlleiotl 100 Iscurrega 158 Barty 241 Fastcake 227 Costaz 122 * Current 96 Makarias 158 Kalmake 239 Makarias 227 skylark68 120 Iscurrega 94 wattoroos 158 M2000-5 236 wattoroos 223 Wlleiotl 120 August 88 Grayson 155 Estwald 235 Wander 222 kismet 118 wattoroos 88 noikeee 153 AcuraF1 230 Apex 220 Kalmake 115 Bleu 79 M2000-5 152 Grayson 230 Grayson 210 an1res 110 M2000-5 78 scheivlak 145 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 207 Anderis 105 Barty 77 Brawn BGP 001 144 Brawn BGP 001 211 Barty 192 Barty 105 Costaz 77 August 116 * Current 197 * Current 151 M2000-5 101 kismet 67 * Current 115Vettel and Webber are close to beating players now. Yay!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Button Massa Grosjean Sutil Ricciardo Costaz 248 * Potential 267 * Potential 253 * Potential 225 * Potential 212 * Potential 247 an1res 210 Estwald 165 wattoroos 63 M2000-5 26 Fastcake 241 M2000-5 199 an1res 150 Wlleiotl 60 mark f1 25 Brawn BGP 001 222 Kalmake 192 noikeee 148 Barty 55 Apex 24 Barty 209 kismet 175 Anderis 142 kismet 51 KWSN-DSM 24 wattoroos 208 Anderis 170 Makarias 142 Grayson 50 * Forecast 21 Iscurrega 201 Estwald 155 scheivlak 141 Estwald 45 an1res 20 Wlleiotl 200 noikeee 150 Kalmake 134 August 44 Fisichella_2001 19 kismet 199 skylark68 144 AcuraF1 131 * Forecast 43 Kalmake 17 August 197 Bleu 140 Wander 124 DutchQuicksilver 42 Brawn BGP 001 16 AcuraF1 195 Makarias 139 skylark68 122 Apex 40 August 15 Bleu 190 DutchQuicksilver135 M2000-5 121 AcuraF1 39 Grayson 15 DutchQuicksilver190 Wander 134 mark f1 120 Fastcake 39 kismet 15 Wander 185 wattoroos 133 wattoroos 118 Bleu 36 AcuraF1 14 Fisichella_2001 182 Costaz 132 Costaz 114 Fisichella_2001 36 Bleu 14 Apex 180 Fisichella_2001 130 Fisichella_2001 114 mark f1 35 noikeee 14 Grayson 175 Iscurrega 130 Brawn BGP 001 113 skylark68 35 Barty 12 mark f1 170 mark f1 130 Grayson 110 scheivlak 34 scheivlak 12 skylark68 170 AcuraF1 121 KWSN-DSM 105 Wander 34 * Current 12 Makarias 164 Apex 120 Apex 100 Brawn BGP 001 33 DutchQuicksilver 11 scheivlak 164 Grayson 120 DutchQuicksilver100 an1res 30 Fastcake 11 KWSN-DSM 157 * Forecast 116 Iscurrega 100 Iscurrega 27 Anderis 10 M2000-5 157 KWSN-DSM 115 kismet 99 Costaz 26 skylark68 10 noikeee 151 Brawn BGP 001 111 * Forecast 92 Kalmake 26 Wlleiotl 10 an1res 150 scheivlak 110 Barty 89 KWSN-DSM 25 Iscurrega 9 Estwald 145 Wlleiotl 100 Wlleiotl 80 Makarias 25 Makarias 9 Kalmake 145 August 91 Bleu 76 * Current 25 Wander 9 Anderis 127 Fastcake 91 Fastcake 72 M2000-5 24 wattoroos 8 * Forecast 81 * Current 67 August 63 noikeee 22 Costaz 5 * Current 47 Barty 60 * Current 53 Anderis 21 Estwald 0As far as I am concerned, Sutil can stop scoring points right now.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- scheivlak 1578,6 1,0 KWSN-DSM 1560,8 7,6 Apex 1559,1 0,7 AcuraF1 1544,4 0,9 DutchQuicksilver 1542,4 0,9 noikeee 1541,8 -9,7 Iscurrega 1529,8 -17,4 mark f1 1526,5 -1,6 Bleu 1515,1 10,0 Fisichella_2001 1513,4 0,9 skylark68 1513,2 9,0 Costaz 1513,0 0,0 an1res 1512,4 0,9 Anderis 1505,0 0,0 kismet 1501,2 -0,5 Wlleiotl 1498,3 2,1 Makarias 1497,4 0,9 Wander 1497,4 0,9 Grayson 1496,5 0,3 Estwald 1495,5 0,3 Kalmake 1492,4 0,9 wattoroos 1478,5 0,3 M2000-5 1472,0 -24,7 August 1469,1 10,2 Fastcake 1462,1 2,6 Barty 1440,9 1,2 Brawn BGP 001 1368,6 1,0Most forecasts didn't seem keen to change at all this round. The three biggest forecast droppers are top three in Kimi bets...
Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Lotus (nee Benetton/Renault) team through the years:
Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess AD Points pts % pts % % 2000 442 17.9 4.0 20 4.5 112.0 2001 442 20.4 4.6 10 2.3 48.9 2002 442 18.7 4.2 23 5.2 122.9 2003 624 43.4 7.0 88 14.1 202.6 2004 702 102.8 14.6 105 15.0 102.1 2005 741 138.2 18.7 191 25.8 138.2 2006 702 159.4 22.7 206 29.3 129.2 2007 663 94.0 14.2 51 7.7 54.3 2008 702 77.4 11.0 80 11.4 103.3 2009 731 74.9 10.3 27 3.7 36.0 2010 1919 65.1 3.4 163 8.5 250.5 2011 1919 156.1 8.1 73 3.8 46.8 2012 2020 180.0 8.9 303 15.0 168.4*The franchise has a 9/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far.
*Enjoyed a steady rise from 2002 to 2006, going from midfield slump to championship level.
*Has had a couple of failed seasons, 2009 and 2011, since then.
*Seems to be back to its role from decades ago: underdog challenger to bigger frontrunner teams.
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.
