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Place The Points Competition 2013 after Italy


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#1 Makarias

Makarias
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Posted 18 September 2013 - 12:55

The standings after Italy:

Pos Name             Tot Latest
1)  Fisichella_2001  1209  99
=   Grayson          1209  98
3)  Apex             1208  97
4)  mark f1          1207  97
5)  AcuraF1          1205  97
6)  KWSN-DSM         1202 101
=   scheivlak        1202  95
8)  DutchQuicksilver 1200  95
9)  Fastcake         1195  95
=   Wander           1195  93
11) skylark68        1183  93
12) Makarias         1181  95
13) noikeee          1179  97
14) Brawn BGP 001    1178  86
=   wattoroos        1178  85
16) an1res           1175  99
=   Wlleiotl         1175  89
18) August           1169  76
19) Iscurrega        1166  85
20) Estwald          1164  93
21) Bleu             1163  87
=   Kalmake          1163  98
23) kismet           1147  88
24) Anderis          1135  89
25) M2000-5          1131  91
26) Costaz           1130  85
27) Barty            1124  73

Apex and Grayson finally ditch the concept of perfect scores!

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Ricc    129,9     66,7   21
diRe    103,4     59,0   15
Hami    102,1     69,1   16
Verg     98,0     44,8   14
Rosb     97,4     68,0   12
Vett     88,1     79,0    1
Webb     75,2     53,5    1
Räik     73,5     48,6    2
Alon     70,9     59,9    0
Suti     67,7     39,1    3
Mass     58,6     37,4    1
Gros     49,8     34,3    0
Hülk     28,5     20,0    0
Butt     26,3     19,3    0
Pere     14,7      8,9    0
Mald      2,0      1,1    0

Daniel Ricciardo celebrates his 2014 deal by passing his 100% Expectation mark!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel                 Alonso                 Webber                 Massa                  Hülkenberg          
* Potential     397    * Potential     344    * Potential     305    * Potential     254    * Potential     192
* Forecast      352    skylark68       281    Barty           242    an1res          210    Bleu             84
Anderis         280    Bleu            275    Anderis         225    M2000-5         199    Wlleiotl         80
Makarias        276    * Forecast      268    * Forecast      206    Kalmake         192    wattoroos        78
kismet          274    August          262    Costaz          200    kismet          175    Estwald          70
Bleu            272    KWSN-DSM        260    kismet          200    Anderis         170    KWSN-DSM         69
noikeee         272    Iscurrega       254    Fastcake        198    Estwald         155    Makarias         69
Apex            270    M2000-5         251    DutchQuicksilver181    noikeee         150    Wander           67
August          267    an1res          250    an1res          180    skylark68       144    Brawn BGP 001    66
wattoroos       263    Costaz          250    Apex            180    Bleu            140    AcuraF1          65
Iscurrega       260    kismet          250    Estwald         180    Makarias        139    Apex             65
scheivlak       260    Kalmake         249    mark f1         180    DutchQuicksilver135    Grayson          65
KWSN-DSM        259    AcuraF1         245    Wlleiotl        180    Wander          134    skylark68        63
Costaz          254    Anderis         245    Fisichella_2001 175    wattoroos       133    scheivlak        62
Fisichella_2001 252    Wlleiotl        240    Bleu            173    Costaz          132    August           60
Wander          251    DutchQuicksilver236    Kalmake         173    Fisichella_2001 130    mark f1          60
mark f1         250    noikeee         236    skylark68       169    Iscurrega       130    M2000-5          57
skylark68       250    scheivlak       235    AcuraF1         168    mark f1         130    Fisichella_2001  56
Wlleiotl        250    Estwald         230    Wander          162    * Forecast      125    Barty            55
DutchQuicksilver247    mark f1         230    KWSN-DSM        160    AcuraF1         121    Fastcake         54
Fastcake        247    Fisichella_2001 229    Iscurrega       158    Apex            120    Anderis          50
Barty           241    Fastcake        227    Makarias        158    Grayson         120    Iscurrega        50
Kalmake         239    Makarias        227    wattoroos       158    KWSN-DSM        115    noikeee          50
M2000-5         236    wattoroos       223    Grayson         155    Brawn BGP 001   111    DutchQuicksilver 49
Estwald         235    Wander          222    noikeee         153    scheivlak       110    kismet           49
AcuraF1         230    Apex            220    M2000-5         152    Wlleiotl        100    Kalmake          45
Grayson         230    Grayson         210    scheivlak       145    August           91    Costaz           43
an1res          225    Brawn BGP 001   207    Brawn BGP 001   144    Fastcake         91    an1res           30
* Current       222    Barty           192    * Current       130    * Current        79    * Forecast       27
Brawn BGP 001   211    * Current       169    August          116    Barty            60    * Current        17

One down each for Vettel and Webber! Hülkenberg's season seems bound to be disappointing, unless this race is an indication of improvement for Sauber...

Guesses on P6-P10:

Rosberg                Ricciardo              Grosjean               Hamilton               Button              
* Potential     279    * Potential     193    * Potential     232    * Potential     316    Costaz          248
* Forecast      165    * Forecast       29    Estwald         165    * Forecast      223    Fastcake        241
scheivlak       152    M2000-5          26    an1res          150    scheivlak       203    * Potential     223
an1res          140    mark f1          25    noikeee         148    August          181    Brawn BGP 001   222
AcuraF1         139    Apex             24    Anderis         142    Grayson         165    Barty           209
KWSN-DSM        138    KWSN-DSM         24    Makarias        142    Apex            160    wattoroos       208
Kalmake         130    an1res           20    scheivlak       141    KWSN-DSM        159    Iscurrega       201
Grayson         125    Fisichella_2001  19    Kalmake         134    Makarias        158    Wlleiotl        200
DutchQuicksilver124    * Current        18    AcuraF1         131    Fastcake        157    kismet          199
Makarias        118    Kalmake          17    Wander          124    DutchQuicksilver156    August          197
Fastcake        117    Brawn BGP 001    16    skylark68       122    noikeee         152    AcuraF1         195
Estwald         115    August           15    M2000-5         121    mark f1         150    Bleu            190
Fisichella_2001 112    Grayson          15    mark f1         120    AcuraF1         145    DutchQuicksilver190
Brawn BGP 001   111    kismet           15    wattoroos       118    * Current       141    Wander          185
noikeee         105    AcuraF1          14    Costaz          114    Fisichella_2001 138    Fisichella_2001 182
Wander          105    Bleu             14    Fisichella_2001 114    wattoroos       138    Apex            180
skylark68       104    noikeee          14    Brawn BGP 001   113    Wander          136    Grayson         175
* Current       104    Barty            12    Grayson         110    Brawn BGP 001   133    mark f1         170
Anderis         100    scheivlak        12    KWSN-DSM        105    Bleu            129    skylark68       170
Apex            100    DutchQuicksilver 11    Apex            100    Iscurrega       128    Makarias        164
mark f1         100    Fastcake         11    DutchQuicksilver100    Estwald         124    scheivlak       164
Wlleiotl        100    Anderis          10    Iscurrega       100    Costaz          122    KWSN-DSM        157
Iscurrega        94    skylark68        10    kismet           99    skylark68       120    M2000-5         157
August           88    Wlleiotl         10    * Forecast       90    Wlleiotl        120    noikeee         151
wattoroos        88    Iscurrega         9    Barty            89    kismet          118    an1res          150
Bleu             79    Makarias          9    Wlleiotl         80    Kalmake         115    Estwald         145
M2000-5          78    Wander            9    Bleu             76    an1res          110    Kalmake         145
Barty            77    wattoroos         8    Fastcake         72    Anderis         105    Anderis         127
Costaz           77    Costaz            5    August           63    Barty           105    * Forecast       76
kismet           67    Estwald           0    * Current        57    M2000-5         101    * Current        48

Button can no longer reach the highest guesses. Just outside the points, his teammate Perez is suffering the same cruel destiny. Ricciardo still has a great chance to score a 100% surprise though. Watch this space!

The PTPC forecast

Name             Forecast  +/-
scheivlak        1584,3    5,6
Apex             1571,8   12,7
KWSN-DSM         1567,8    7,0
AcuraF1          1555,3   10,9
DutchQuicksilver 1554,9   12,6
mark f1          1543,9   17,4
noikeee          1537,5   -4,3
Bleu             1536,3   21,2
skylark68        1534,9   21,7
Fisichella_2001  1528,3   15,0
an1res           1527,3   15,0
Anderis          1527,2   22,2
Iscurrega        1525,5   -4,3
Costaz           1520,5    7,5
kismet           1513,9   12,7
Makarias         1512,3   15,0
Wander           1512,3   15,0
Kalmake          1507,3   15,0
Estwald          1506,9   11,4
Grayson          1502,8    6,3
Wlleiotl         1498,6    0,3
wattoroos        1489,9   11,4
August           1473,6    4,5
M2000-5          1471,1   -0,9
Fastcake         1469,0    6,9
Barty            1441,6    0,7
Brawn BGP 001    1374,3    5,6

Hülk scored, forecasts soared.

Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Ferrari team through the years:

Year  WCC   guess guess  WCC   WCC  WCC/guess
 AD  Points  pts     %   pts    %      %
2000   442  129.9  29.4  170  38.5  130.9
2001   442  135.0  30.5  179  40.5  132.6
2002   442  136.9  31.0  221  50.0  161.4
2003   624  201.4  32.3  158  25.3   78.4
2004   702  164.7  23.5  262  37.3  159.1
2005   741  185.6  25.0  100  13.5   53.9
2006   702  125.3  17.9  201  28.6  160.4
2007   663  187.8  28.3  204  30.8  108.6
2008   702  202.2  28.8  172  24.5   85.1
2009   731  175.4  24.0   77  10.5   43.9
2010  1919  444.3  23.2  396  20.6   89.1
2011  1919  433.0  22.6  375  19.5   86.6
2012  2020  271.5  13.4  400  19.8  147.3

*The franchise has a 7/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far.
*A solid top team with high points during the Michael Schumacher era.
*A couple of disappointing seasons: 2005 due to tyres, 2009 due to KERS.
*Has levelled out at around 20% of all WCC points lately. Still some room for improvement!

And to finally finish off this mess, a look at the predictions for the backmarker and discontinued teams through the years:

Year  WCC   guess guess  WCC   WCC  WCC/guess
 AD  Points  pts     %   pts    %      %
Caterham (Lotus)
2010  1919    9.4  0.49    0   0.0    0.0
2011  1919    5.2  0.27    0   0.0    0.0
2012  2020    4.0  0.20    0   0.0    0.0

Marussia (Virgin)
2010  1919    5.6  0.29    0   0.0    0.0
2011  1919    0.4  0.02    0   0.0    0.0
2012  2020    0.1  0.01    0   0.0    0.0

Arrows
2000   442    7.1   1.6    7   1.6   99.0
2001   442    2.6   0.6    1   0.2   37.9
2002   442    3.7   0.8    2   0.5   53.5

HRT
2010  1919    1.4  0.08    0   0.0    0.0
2011  1919    0.2  0.01    0   0.0    0.0
2012  2020    0.2  0.01    0   0.0    0.0

Prost
2000   442    8.4   1.9    0   0.0    0.0
2001   442    8.5   1.9    4   0.9   47.0

Super Aguri
2006   702    0.6  0.08    0   0.0    0.0
2007   663    2.7  0.40    4   0.6  150.9
2008   702    0.9  0.12    0   0.0    0.0

Toyota
2002   442    1.5   0.3    2   0.5  129.5
2003   624   23.6   3.8   16   2.6   67.9
2004   702   32.3   4.6    9   1.3   27.8
2005   741   37.5   5.1   88  11.9  234.6
2006   702   58.1   8.3   35   5.0   60.2
2007   663   33.6   5.1   13   2.0   38.7
2008   702   28.1   4.0   56   8.0  199.1
2009   731   77.2  10.6   70   9.6   90.6

*Caterham's expectations remain clearly higher than for Marussia; I dunno if that's particularly justified anymore?
*With the exception of Toyota, the issue for all the discontinued teams has been insufficient funding. As a consequence, it is no surprise that the results have been suffering.
*As for Toyota, the results weren't a match for the financial input. Nevertheless, one can not wonder if they couldn't eventually have moved up to the top rung from their upper midfield position.

Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.

 



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#2 KWSN - DSM

KWSN - DSM
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Posted 18 September 2013 - 16:01

I stayed with a perfect score, still want Caterham and Marrusia to score points.

 

:cool: