The standings after Italy:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Fisichella_2001 1209 99 = Grayson 1209 98 3) Apex 1208 97 4) mark f1 1207 97 5) AcuraF1 1205 97 6) KWSN-DSM 1202 101 = scheivlak 1202 95 8) DutchQuicksilver 1200 95 9) Fastcake 1195 95 = Wander 1195 93 11) skylark68 1183 93 12) Makarias 1181 95 13) noikeee 1179 97 14) Brawn BGP 001 1178 86 = wattoroos 1178 85 16) an1res 1175 99 = Wlleiotl 1175 89 18) August 1169 76 19) Iscurrega 1166 85 20) Estwald 1164 93 21) Bleu 1163 87 = Kalmake 1163 98 23) kismet 1147 88 24) Anderis 1135 89 25) M2000-5 1131 91 26) Costaz 1130 85 27) Barty 1124 73
Apex and Grayson finally ditch the concept of perfect scores!
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 129,9 66,7 21 diRe 103,4 59,0 15 Hami 102,1 69,1 16 Verg 98,0 44,8 14 Rosb 97,4 68,0 12 Vett 88,1 79,0 1 Webb 75,2 53,5 1 Räik 73,5 48,6 2 Alon 70,9 59,9 0 Suti 67,7 39,1 3 Mass 58,6 37,4 1 Gros 49,8 34,3 0 Hülk 28,5 20,0 0 Butt 26,3 19,3 0 Pere 14,7 8,9 0 Mald 2,0 1,1 0
Daniel Ricciardo celebrates his 2014 deal by passing his 100% Expectation mark!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Alonso Webber Massa Hülkenberg * Potential 397 * Potential 344 * Potential 305 * Potential 254 * Potential 192 * Forecast 352 skylark68 281 Barty 242 an1res 210 Bleu 84 Anderis 280 Bleu 275 Anderis 225 M2000-5 199 Wlleiotl 80 Makarias 276 * Forecast 268 * Forecast 206 Kalmake 192 wattoroos 78 kismet 274 August 262 Costaz 200 kismet 175 Estwald 70 Bleu 272 KWSN-DSM 260 kismet 200 Anderis 170 KWSN-DSM 69 noikeee 272 Iscurrega 254 Fastcake 198 Estwald 155 Makarias 69 Apex 270 M2000-5 251 DutchQuicksilver181 noikeee 150 Wander 67 August 267 an1res 250 an1res 180 skylark68 144 Brawn BGP 001 66 wattoroos 263 Costaz 250 Apex 180 Bleu 140 AcuraF1 65 Iscurrega 260 kismet 250 Estwald 180 Makarias 139 Apex 65 scheivlak 260 Kalmake 249 mark f1 180 DutchQuicksilver135 Grayson 65 KWSN-DSM 259 AcuraF1 245 Wlleiotl 180 Wander 134 skylark68 63 Costaz 254 Anderis 245 Fisichella_2001 175 wattoroos 133 scheivlak 62 Fisichella_2001 252 Wlleiotl 240 Bleu 173 Costaz 132 August 60 Wander 251 DutchQuicksilver236 Kalmake 173 Fisichella_2001 130 mark f1 60 mark f1 250 noikeee 236 skylark68 169 Iscurrega 130 M2000-5 57 skylark68 250 scheivlak 235 AcuraF1 168 mark f1 130 Fisichella_2001 56 Wlleiotl 250 Estwald 230 Wander 162 * Forecast 125 Barty 55 DutchQuicksilver247 mark f1 230 KWSN-DSM 160 AcuraF1 121 Fastcake 54 Fastcake 247 Fisichella_2001 229 Iscurrega 158 Apex 120 Anderis 50 Barty 241 Fastcake 227 Makarias 158 Grayson 120 Iscurrega 50 Kalmake 239 Makarias 227 wattoroos 158 KWSN-DSM 115 noikeee 50 M2000-5 236 wattoroos 223 Grayson 155 Brawn BGP 001 111 DutchQuicksilver 49 Estwald 235 Wander 222 noikeee 153 scheivlak 110 kismet 49 AcuraF1 230 Apex 220 M2000-5 152 Wlleiotl 100 Kalmake 45 Grayson 230 Grayson 210 scheivlak 145 August 91 Costaz 43 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 207 Brawn BGP 001 144 Fastcake 91 an1res 30 * Current 222 Barty 192 * Current 130 * Current 79 * Forecast 27 Brawn BGP 001 211 * Current 169 August 116 Barty 60 * Current 17
One down each for Vettel and Webber! Hülkenberg's season seems bound to be disappointing, unless this race is an indication of improvement for Sauber...
Guesses on P6-P10:
Rosberg Ricciardo Grosjean Hamilton Button * Potential 279 * Potential 193 * Potential 232 * Potential 316 Costaz 248 * Forecast 165 * Forecast 29 Estwald 165 * Forecast 223 Fastcake 241 scheivlak 152 M2000-5 26 an1res 150 scheivlak 203 * Potential 223 an1res 140 mark f1 25 noikeee 148 August 181 Brawn BGP 001 222 AcuraF1 139 Apex 24 Anderis 142 Grayson 165 Barty 209 KWSN-DSM 138 KWSN-DSM 24 Makarias 142 Apex 160 wattoroos 208 Kalmake 130 an1res 20 scheivlak 141 KWSN-DSM 159 Iscurrega 201 Grayson 125 Fisichella_2001 19 Kalmake 134 Makarias 158 Wlleiotl 200 DutchQuicksilver124 * Current 18 AcuraF1 131 Fastcake 157 kismet 199 Makarias 118 Kalmake 17 Wander 124 DutchQuicksilver156 August 197 Fastcake 117 Brawn BGP 001 16 skylark68 122 noikeee 152 AcuraF1 195 Estwald 115 August 15 M2000-5 121 mark f1 150 Bleu 190 Fisichella_2001 112 Grayson 15 mark f1 120 AcuraF1 145 DutchQuicksilver190 Brawn BGP 001 111 kismet 15 wattoroos 118 * Current 141 Wander 185 noikeee 105 AcuraF1 14 Costaz 114 Fisichella_2001 138 Fisichella_2001 182 Wander 105 Bleu 14 Fisichella_2001 114 wattoroos 138 Apex 180 skylark68 104 noikeee 14 Brawn BGP 001 113 Wander 136 Grayson 175 * Current 104 Barty 12 Grayson 110 Brawn BGP 001 133 mark f1 170 Anderis 100 scheivlak 12 KWSN-DSM 105 Bleu 129 skylark68 170 Apex 100 DutchQuicksilver 11 Apex 100 Iscurrega 128 Makarias 164 mark f1 100 Fastcake 11 DutchQuicksilver100 Estwald 124 scheivlak 164 Wlleiotl 100 Anderis 10 Iscurrega 100 Costaz 122 KWSN-DSM 157 Iscurrega 94 skylark68 10 kismet 99 skylark68 120 M2000-5 157 August 88 Wlleiotl 10 * Forecast 90 Wlleiotl 120 noikeee 151 wattoroos 88 Iscurrega 9 Barty 89 kismet 118 an1res 150 Bleu 79 Makarias 9 Wlleiotl 80 Kalmake 115 Estwald 145 M2000-5 78 Wander 9 Bleu 76 an1res 110 Kalmake 145 Barty 77 wattoroos 8 Fastcake 72 Anderis 105 Anderis 127 Costaz 77 Costaz 5 August 63 Barty 105 * Forecast 76 kismet 67 Estwald 0 * Current 57 M2000-5 101 * Current 48
Button can no longer reach the highest guesses. Just outside the points, his teammate Perez is suffering the same cruel destiny. Ricciardo still has a great chance to score a 100% surprise though. Watch this space!
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- scheivlak 1584,3 5,6 Apex 1571,8 12,7 KWSN-DSM 1567,8 7,0 AcuraF1 1555,3 10,9 DutchQuicksilver 1554,9 12,6 mark f1 1543,9 17,4 noikeee 1537,5 -4,3 Bleu 1536,3 21,2 skylark68 1534,9 21,7 Fisichella_2001 1528,3 15,0 an1res 1527,3 15,0 Anderis 1527,2 22,2 Iscurrega 1525,5 -4,3 Costaz 1520,5 7,5 kismet 1513,9 12,7 Makarias 1512,3 15,0 Wander 1512,3 15,0 Kalmake 1507,3 15,0 Estwald 1506,9 11,4 Grayson 1502,8 6,3 Wlleiotl 1498,6 0,3 wattoroos 1489,9 11,4 August 1473,6 4,5 M2000-5 1471,1 -0,9 Fastcake 1469,0 6,9 Barty 1441,6 0,7 Brawn BGP 001 1374,3 5,6
Hülk scored, forecasts soared.
Old numbers
A look at the predictions for the Ferrari team through the years:
Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess AD Points pts % pts % % 2000 442 129.9 29.4 170 38.5 130.9 2001 442 135.0 30.5 179 40.5 132.6 2002 442 136.9 31.0 221 50.0 161.4 2003 624 201.4 32.3 158 25.3 78.4 2004 702 164.7 23.5 262 37.3 159.1 2005 741 185.6 25.0 100 13.5 53.9 2006 702 125.3 17.9 201 28.6 160.4 2007 663 187.8 28.3 204 30.8 108.6 2008 702 202.2 28.8 172 24.5 85.1 2009 731 175.4 24.0 77 10.5 43.9 2010 1919 444.3 23.2 396 20.6 89.1 2011 1919 433.0 22.6 375 19.5 86.6 2012 2020 271.5 13.4 400 19.8 147.3
*The franchise has a 7/13 ratio for beating our expectations so far.
*A solid top team with high points during the Michael Schumacher era.
*A couple of disappointing seasons: 2005 due to tyres, 2009 due to KERS.
*Has levelled out at around 20% of all WCC points lately. Still some room for improvement!
And to finally finish off this mess, a look at the predictions for the backmarker and discontinued teams through the years:
Year WCC guess guess WCC WCC WCC/guess AD Points pts % pts % % Caterham (Lotus) 2010 1919 9.4 0.49 0 0.0 0.0 2011 1919 5.2 0.27 0 0.0 0.0 2012 2020 4.0 0.20 0 0.0 0.0 Marussia (Virgin) 2010 1919 5.6 0.29 0 0.0 0.0 2011 1919 0.4 0.02 0 0.0 0.0 2012 2020 0.1 0.01 0 0.0 0.0 Arrows 2000 442 7.1 1.6 7 1.6 99.0 2001 442 2.6 0.6 1 0.2 37.9 2002 442 3.7 0.8 2 0.5 53.5 HRT 2010 1919 1.4 0.08 0 0.0 0.0 2011 1919 0.2 0.01 0 0.0 0.0 2012 2020 0.2 0.01 0 0.0 0.0 Prost 2000 442 8.4 1.9 0 0.0 0.0 2001 442 8.5 1.9 4 0.9 47.0 Super Aguri 2006 702 0.6 0.08 0 0.0 0.0 2007 663 2.7 0.40 4 0.6 150.9 2008 702 0.9 0.12 0 0.0 0.0 Toyota 2002 442 1.5 0.3 2 0.5 129.5 2003 624 23.6 3.8 16 2.6 67.9 2004 702 32.3 4.6 9 1.3 27.8 2005 741 37.5 5.1 88 11.9 234.6 2006 702 58.1 8.3 35 5.0 60.2 2007 663 33.6 5.1 13 2.0 38.7 2008 702 28.1 4.0 56 8.0 199.1 2009 731 77.2 10.6 70 9.6 90.6
*Caterham's expectations remain clearly higher than for Marussia; I dunno if that's particularly justified anymore?
*With the exception of Toyota, the issue for all the discontinued teams has been insufficient funding. As a consequence, it is no surprise that the results have been suffering.
*As for Toyota, the results weren't a match for the financial input. Nevertheless, one can not wonder if they couldn't eventually have moved up to the top rung from their upper midfield position.
Notes:
-Due to preseason regulation unclarity, in 2009 this game used a 12-9-7-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system for each race, which wasn't actually used in F1.
-The "guess pts" column values are based on guesses on the preseason nominated drivers of the team, whereas the WCC outcome is from all drivers scoring for the team.
