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Sebastian Vettel: More Wins than any Driver on the Grid


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Poll: Will Sebastian reach or surpass Michael's 91 Wins? (211 member(s) have cast votes)

Will Sebastian reach or surpass Michael's 91 Wins?

  1. Yes (44 votes [20.85%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.85%

  2. No (92 votes [43.60%])

    Percentage of vote: 43.60%

  3. How do I know? (75 votes [35.55%])

    Percentage of vote: 35.55%

Vote

#1 bourbon

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:05

http://www.theguardi...singapore-gp-f1

http://www.telegraph...-2013-live.html

http://www.f1fanatic...ace-wins-total/

 

 

Sebastian has surpassed Alonso to become the winningest driver on the current grid, with 33 f1 race wins.  This is a remarkable achievement for a 26 year old.  He has done it with RB cars, his first win in the STRF in 2008 and is 32nd win in the RB9 at Singapore.   The car has been a top contender and often record fast and combined with Sebastian's talent has forged a champion and a championship team. 

 

Michael and Sebastian achieved the same number of wins (32) within the same number of races (113) according to NBC Sports - not terribly reliable, but I figure it is close.  The question is:  Will Seb catch Michael?  That is a very tall order.  What do you think?  Vote!

 

CURRENT GRID - Number of Wins:

VETTEL - 33
ALONSO - 32
HAMILTON - 22
RAIKKONEN - 20
BUTTON - 15
MASSA - 11
WEBBER - 9
ROSBERG - 3
MALDONADO - 1

ALL TIME - Number of Wins:

Schumi - 91
Prost - 51
Senna - 41
Vettel - 33

Alonso 32

 

 

 

 

 



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#2 Jimisgod

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:15

Thank **** for regulation changes next year.

Hopefully we get some new names and Lewis, Kimi and co. hit 30.

#3 jonpollak

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:17

12919.jpg

 

Jp



#4 gm914

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:25

627.jpg



#5 Gorma

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:32

How could I know... There is a good chance he might break Michaels records.

 

OT: Why do I feel that when Alonso's wins are listed there should be an asterisk...



#6 swerved

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 03:43

How could I know... There is a good chance he might break Michaels records.

 

OT: Why do I feel that when Alonso's wins are listed there should be an asterisk...

 

Alonso, 32 

 

Asterix50.gif
 



#7 George Costanza

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 04:13

I don't think Seb will catch Michael Schumacher. He would need another dominant period of F1, like he is in now, to even get close to it....

 

Fernando would be quite ahead of anyone else if he had a comparable car.


Edited by George Costanza, 24 September 2013 - 04:14.


#8 bourbon

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 04:18

Thank **** for regulation changes next year.

Hopefully we get some new names and Lewis, Kimi and co. hit 30.

 

The way Bernie is adding GPs to the schedule, everyone should have plenty of opportunities to up their tallies.  But that will also give Seb a better chance at catching up to Michael.  Technically it won't be the same based on the different number of GPs they were able to run, but it is a crazy great number of wins to try to reach and so if Seb makes it, that will be something in and of itself. :up:



#9 swerved

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 04:27

Hard to say, he's got the talent to do it, and currently the car to help him, but will he have that nest year ? no-one knows, but i think we haven't yet seen the end of the list of records he'll break.

 

Imagine if he did though, they would have to create more room under the podium for those little extras the fans will bring to the ceremony, Gallows, Crucifix, Guillotine, Strappado, etc etc ;)



#10 Romulan

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 04:27

I hope Vettel surpasses Michael's consecutive WDCs.



#11 apoka

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:28

I think it will be extremely hard for Vettel or anyone else to achieve this. Despite the last race, F1 is nowadays very close and almost a spec series. On most weekends, in particular early in the season, we can expect 4 or 5 teams to have a shot at the win each race weekend. Not to mention that the grid itself is also very strong with Alonso, Hamilton, Kimi, Rosberg (Button, Hulk)  as competition.

 

The other reason why this is hard is that Michael just entered his golden Ferrari years at that time, so his stats will be increasingly hard to keep up with.

 

Looking at it from a mathematical point of view: Vettel has won 29% of his races so far. If he keeps this up, he would need 200 more races to achieve 91 wins. Assuming there will be 20 race seasons in the future, that would be 10 years in which he needs to have similar success to what he had so far. Btw. Alonso has 15% win percentage and Hamilton 18%, which would result in 387 more races needed (20 years) and 323 more races needed (17 years). So, it is not completely impossible for him to race 10 more years with 6 wins per season on average, but very challenging. (And I don't even want to imagine the forum threads in 10 years if that actually happens ...)

 



#12 bourbon

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 05:41

True.  To put it in blunt terms, he needs 59 more wins - that is a lot of wins.  Seen in that light, it doesn't look likely.  But anything is possible.



#13 Kingshark

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 06:23

He will need a few more cars like the Ferrari F2002 or F2004 to achieve 90+ wins, so it seems rather unlikely and improbable. Of course, I'm not a fortune teller.



#14 OldSoldier2

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:03

True.  To put it in blunt terms, he needs 59 more wins - that is a lot of wins.  Seen in that light, it doesn't look likely.  But anything is possible.

Vettel is 26 which means he probably has 10 more years in the sport. An average of 6 wins per year is not impossible. Four to five wins a year, two more monster 10+ years, and it could be done.

 

Since Vettel guards his private life so fiercely I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire early if only to avoid, the far too often, loathsome media.



#15 ensign14

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:07

It's less likely that Vettel will have the benefit of the rules being bent in favour of his team all the time.



#16 joshb

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:28

http://www.theguardi...singapore-gp-f1

http://www.telegraph...-2013-live.html

http://www.f1fanatic...ace-wins-total/

 

 

Sebastian has surpassed Alonso to become the winningest driver on the current grid, with 33 f1 race wins.  This is a remarkable achievement for a 26 year old.  He has done it with RB cars, his first win in the STRF in 2008 and is 32nd win in the RB9 at Singapore.   The car has been a top contender and often record fast and combined with Sebastian's talent has forged a champion and a championship team. 

 

Michael and Sebastian achieved the same number of wins (32) within the same number of races (113) according to NBC Sports - not terribly reliable, but I figure it is close.  The question is:  Will Seb catch Michael?  That is a very tall order.  What do you think?  Vote!

 

CURRENT GRID - Number of Wins:

VETTEL - 33
ALONSO - 32
HAMILTON - 22
RAIKKONEN - 20
BUTTON - 15
MASSA - 11
WEBBER - 9
ROSBERG - 3
MALDONADO - 1

ALL TIME - Number of Wins:

Schumi - 91
Prost - 51
Senna - 41
Vettel - 33

Alonso 32

He may not be the fastest

He may not be the best overtaker

He may not be the most complete

 

But he is the most successful



#17 joshb

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:30

It's less likely that Vettel will have the benefit of the rules being bent in favour of his team all the time.

What? Like every year where they invent even more marginal tyres and even try to get rid of EBD mid-season at what would've cost a fortune.

The FIA are in a desperate situation, short of giving RB/Vettel a GP2 car to work with, they've tried every other way to stop them



#18 Zava

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:44

I think that by far this is the hardest one to surpass. he's already got more than half of the pole record, he's soon to have more than half of the WDC record... while he is "only" at 1/3 of the win record.



#19 sopa

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:46

 (And I don't even want to imagine the forum threads in 10 years if that actually happens ...)

 

Lol. Now you can imagine, what anti-Schumacher fans had to endure back in the day. My condolences.:D



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#20 krobinson

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:48

Just imagine how many wins better drivers like Alonso, Hamilton or Raikkonen would have had they lucked into such cars as Red Bull in 2009. 



#21 lbennie

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:50

Thank **** for regulation changes next year.

Hopefully we get some new names and Lewis, Kimi and co. hit 30.

 

:drunk:   :p



#22 sopa

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 07:50

But yeah, it depends. If he can have, say, 3 more such dominant seasons, where he can win at least half of the races (10) and can be a front-runner in the rest of the seasons with about 4-5 wins, then suddenly you realize it's close to doable.

 

How many wins did Vettel get in 2011? Was it 11? And I think he is likely to beat the 10-win-mark in 2013 too.

 

But 2014 regs throw a spanner in the works.

 

Looking at how F1 develops, you wouldn't bet against Vettel remaining a front-runner for the next 10 years, who would get at least a couple of wins in a season, unless he makes a very bad career move or falls out with employer and goes to a struggling team like Alonso at Renault in 2008-09. But the matter is if he can add more dominant seasons in there. And another possible problem is if another driver starts to dominate in another great car, which means Seb is left behind like Alonso now and can't add many wins to his tally. Closely-fought seasons would be enough to get 3-5 wins per season at least.


Edited by sopa, 24 September 2013 - 07:53.


#23 ensign14

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 08:01

What? Like every year where they invent even more marginal tyres and even try to get rid of EBD mid-season at what would've cost a fortune.

The FIA are in a desperate situation, short of giving RB/Vettel a GP2 car to work with, they've tried every other way to stop them

 

Which is my point.  For half-a-decade, every time McLaren stole a technical leap on Ferrari, the FIA let McLaren get to the point of almost debuting it, and then banned it.  Tens of millions of development wasted.  And then there's the 2003 tyre bullshit which handed Ferrari the 2004 title as well.



#24 Buttoneer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 09:09

So anyway, Vettel.

 

He came into F1 younger and in an era where there are more races per season than in Schumies heyday, so as long as the team he drives for continues to provide a car capable of running in the top three, then he ought to be able to do.

 

The bit in bold means I had to vote 'how the hell do I know and I suggest the poll is, for that reason, a waste of time.  Though I will say it's nice that bourbon didn't feel the need to click the option to list all voter details when he set it up.



#25 tifosiMac

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 09:13

My answer would have been 'I hope not' lol.

 

I don't think he'll beat Schumacher, and if the regs change next season, lets hope another team(s) start bringing something better to halt his dominance for a season or two. It would be nice to have a different winner for a change. :)



#26 Sin

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:19

Voted no, because I like to be skeptical and then be surprised positively... that's why I betted Rosberg to win the WDC and Merc the WCC this year

also I think Merc will be strongest team next season...


Edited by Sin, 24 September 2013 - 10:20.


#27 Jackmancer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:32

No.

What Michael did was exceptional, over such a long period of time, and the chance of it repeating is very small.



#28 OvDrone

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:39

Yes, he will. Unfortunately time is on his side and he has the skills.



#29 1Devil1

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 10:54

Just imagine how many wins better drivers like Alonso, Hamilton or Raikkonen would have had they lucked into such cars as Red Bull in 2009. 

Not many because Vettel would have driven the other RedBull



#30 Fastcake

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:04

"Winningest" is not a word.

#31 Nonesuch

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:19

After Japan 2004, would anyone have doubted that Michael Schumacher would reach a 100 wins? I suspect few would have bet against him. Yet he did not.

 

In Australia 2007, how many people would have believed that reigning world champion Alonso would only win six races in the next three years? That's exactly what happened.

 

After Brazil 2008, how many people would have accepted the suggestion that Felipe Massa would never win another race? Yet now it seems like that is becoming a reality.

 

In other words - of course Vettel could reach 91 wins. He's a young guy and he's certainly on top of his game, but you can't just project past results into the future. For all we know, Singapore 2013 will end up being his last win.



#32 KavB

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:28

I honestly think Vettel will retire early. He's achieved so much success already that I can't see him going on until his late 30s like Michael did. So due to that, I don't think he will beat his victory tally. 

 

Vettel would need another dominant season like 2004 and on top of that he would need a few seasons where he scores at least 9 wins (Michael won 9 races in 3 seasons) and for every other season, Vettel would need around 5-7 wins. Vettel would need to be in a car that can fight for victories every season which would be pretty rare. Only Hamilton has been in a winning car every season out of the active drivers. 

 

But Seb is well on his way though. He's already had a dominant season so far in his career and I think he will definitely win at least 10 races this year so who knows. I think Vettel will beat Schumacher's title record but his win tally is even harder to achieve. 



#33 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:37

Not sure on this one. It's certainly possible, but.........if you say he gets to the end of this season on maybe 37 wins, if he's around for another 10 years (maybe pushing it a bit I reckon) that's between 5-6 wins a season, so roughly 1/4 of races every year for the next 10 years which isn't impossible, then he could, but with big regulation changes next season and no doubt at least 1 other big regulation change before he retires (plus he may not always stay at RBR, plus Newey won't be around forever) then I don't think he'll manage it. Think he'll end up with something like 75-80 wins unless he has a couple of seasons like 2011 where he wins 10+ races



#34 sennafan24

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:43

The new regs next year should decide this, it all depends on if the Red Bull are as strong as they are now. Beyond that it depends on how strong Ferrari are if Seb moves there in a few years. Vettel can get the job done if given the right car, I think he would also collect a lot of wins in cars that are 2nd or 3rd best on the grid but not as much. Its all dependent on what car he is given, same with the rest if we are honest.

 

What quality of teammate is another variable.

 

So I remain undecided, he is still very young though and he may top 7 titles.



#35 Afterburner

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:44

Not going to happen. He's more likely to beat the records for most titles and poles than he will wins, I think.



#36 sennafan24

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:44

Just imagine how many wins better drivers like Alonso, Hamilton or Raikkonen would have had they lucked into such cars as Red Bull in 2009. 

Come on now, no need to take pot shots like that.

 

Seb is a great driver and in the same league as those 3 you mentioned, not saying he is the outright best, but he has matured into a terrific all round racer this year.



#37 Racer3

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:45

Looking at it from a mathematical point of view: Vettel has won 29% of his races so far. If he keeps this up, he would need 200 more races to achieve 91 wins. Assuming there will be 20 race seasons in the future, that would be 10 years in which he needs to have similar success to what he had so far. Btw. Alonso has 15% win percentage and Hamilton 18%, which would result in 387 more races needed (20 years) and 323 more races needed (17 years). So, it is not completely impossible for him to race 10 more years with 6 wins per season on average, but very challenging.

 

:up:

 

 

(And I don't even want to imagine the forum threads in 10 years if that actually happens ...)

 

:lol:



#38 SanDiegoGo

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:45

It's less likely that Vettel will have the benefit of the rules being bent in favour of his team all the time.

 

Yes, like Ferrari the rule makers have seen what allowing Red Bull the benefit of the doubt and who knows what else has seen the sport become a bore fest. I wouldn't be surprised to learn of a Red Bull veto of sorts, in the future, like Ferrari. Politics gets you a very long way in F1 and Red Bull have certainly exploited that. I hope Bernie won't be so quick to pick up the phone from his friend Christian in the future as this kind of domination is bad for the sport.



#39 noikeee

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:51

He's in an incredibly unique position of being able to attack these records so early in his career, there's never been any driver with this kind of record before, or anywhere near, at his age.
 
That being said, whilst he has a better chance than anyone else had, I don't think he's gonna do it. I sure as hell wouldn't bank on Red Bull remaining this competitive for the next 10 years and a lot of things can happen in a career. He could get bored. He could be unexpectedly shown up by a team-mate. He could make a bad move between teams. His team could suddenly fall into a slump. He could - knock wood - get injured. Domination, when it is as overwhelming as it is at the moment, looks like it's not gonna end any time soon, but it often does.
 
2014's big roll of the dice will give us a big hint on whether he's on the right track or not. If Red Bull stays upfront without a sweat, then I would be a lot more inclined to vote "yes".


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#40 bourbon

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 11:55

 

He's in an incredibly unique position of being able to attack these records so early in his career, there's never been any driver with this kind of record before, or anywhere near, at his age.
 
That being said, whilst he has a better chance than anyone else had, I don't think he's gonna do it. I sure as hell wouldn't bank on Red Bull remaining this competitive for the next 10 years and a lot of things can happen in a career. He could get bored. He could be unexpectedly shown up by a team-mate. He could make a bad move between teams. His team could suddenly fall into a slump. He could - knock wood - get injured. Domination, when it is as overwhelming as it is at the moment, looks like it's not gonna end any time soon, but it often does.
 
2014's big roll of the dice will give us a big hint on whether he's on the right track or not. If Red Bull stays upfront without a sweat, then I would be a lot more inclined to vote "yes".

 

 

Yup, all the what if factors make it a difficult guess.  I think reg changes will see others finding more success, so my best guess would be that it remains a possibility.


Edited by bourbon, 24 September 2013 - 12:03.


#41 Maustinsj

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 12:00

"Winningest" is not a word.


At last - a native English speaker.

"Most successful" I think is the required phrase.

#42 BenettonB192

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 12:04

I'm confident he will overtake Prost on that stat but 91 wins that is still a very long way to go. It will be "easier" to equal Michaels number of titles.

Also i expect him to go to Ferrari eventualy and that is no guarantee to win a lot of races and championships as can be seen on Alonso's example.

It's the nature of F1 that every couple years a new force emerges or a new talent pops up who starts winning a lot.

Seb needs to be involved in whatever the next big thing is after RB. Maybe he's able to influence and inspire that himself like Michael did at Ferrari. Only then he can get close to such a number of wins.



#43 Winter98

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 13:04

...

Looking at it from a mathematical point of view: Vettel has won 29% of his races so far. If he keeps this up, he would need 200 more races to achieve 91 wins. Assuming there will be 20 race seasons in the future, that would be 10 years in which he needs to have similar success to what he had so far. Btw. Alonso has 15% win percentage and Hamilton 18%, which would result in 387 more races needed (20 years) and 323 more races needed (17 years). So, it is not completely impossible for him to race 10 more years with 6 wins per season on average, but very challenging. (And I don't even want to imagine the forum threads in 10 years if that actually happens ...)

Thank you for doing the calcs apoka.

 

I voted "I don't know" because it is possible, but I would think the odds are well under 50%.



#44 Kyo

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 16:11

If he will or not I don't know but he is obviously the one that has the higher chance. He is only 26 and has open doors in all the big teams, so if Newey retires he can go to the next best team.



#45 Ferrari_F1_fan_2001

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 16:12

If he does, will he finally get the respect he deserves?

 

Statistically speaking, it's virtually impossible he'll be driving the best car all his career. He'll therefore have to rely on his talent and confidence to get the job done. Then we can establish his legacy.

 

I'm going to stick my neck out and say he'll never win another WDC again but will carry on collecting 'records' and establish himself as an All Time Great ala Schumacher-Senna-Prost ilk.



#46 Baddoer

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 17:34

Just some stupid math. It took Seb 7 years to reach 32 wins. To reach 91 he will need another 12-14 years, which is unlikely.



#47 Gorma

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 17:36

Just some stupid math. It took Seb 7 years to reach 32 wins. To reach 91 he will need another 12-14 years, which is unlikely.

No... Actually it took Seb 26 years to reach 32 wins... So he'll need 50 years to reach 91. 



#48 sennafan24

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 17:39

If he does, will he finally get the respect he deserves?

 

 

Probably not from some, as a fan who does not live and breath on stats and is more interested in statistical analysis, relative performance and what you do with what you got, Vettel has done enough for myself to consider him a great driver. The raw stats are impressive at face value, but they are not the reasons I rate Vettel so highly, Schumi neither.

 

Some no matter what will look at the most contradictory evidence to their subjective interpretations and always find holes and flaws in what Vettel does. The same happened with Schumacher, to myself there is no going back from Germany 2013 with Seb, that race was what confirmed to me I was watching a great driver apply his trade, his consistency in 2013 is another tribute that confirms his talents further. But some will just dismiss his efforts as "car enhanced" no matter the circumstance or situation.

 

Its absolute, one-sided and blinkered thinking, that is commonplace mainly towards Vettel and Hamilton sadly. Some peoples brains and attitudes are not developed to appreciate both sides of the argument and see strengths and weaknesses, which is why we get so much absolute opinions about.


Edited by sennafan24, 24 September 2013 - 17:40.


#49 Gorma

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 17:41

I think Vettel is going to win at least four more races this season. 



#50 apoka

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Posted 24 September 2013 - 18:25

Just some stupid math. It took Seb 7 years to reach 32 wins. To reach 91 he will need another 12-14 years, which is unlikely.

 

It's more 6 years than 7. 2007 he did only 8 races and 2013 there are 6 races left in 2013. He needs around 10 years at that winning rate (29%).