The standings after Japan:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Apex 1461 72 2) scheivlak 1451 63 3) KWSN-DSM 1445 66 4) Makarias 1440 66 5) DutchQuicksilver 1436 64 6) Grayson 1427 65 7) noikeee 1426 72 8) AcuraF1 1425 76 9) mark f1 1423 65 10) Fisichella_2001 1421 62 11) Wander 1411 72 12) skylark68 1396 71 13) wattoroos 1391 62 14) Iscurrega 1390 72 15) Bleu 1388 61 = Kalmake 1388 76 17) Wlleiotl 1382 65 18) Anderis 1378 80 = August 1378 39 20) Fastcake 1377 47 21) an1res 1374 65 = Estwald 1374 72 23) kismet 1355 64 24) Costaz 1348 72 25) M2000-5 1330 72 26) Brawn BGP 001 1324 58 27) Barty 1303 59
Hurrah! Nobody got anywhere near 101 points!
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 129,9 66,7 21 Rosb 118,0 82,4 22 Vett 117,9 105,7 27 Hami 116,6 78,9 24 diRe 103,4 59,0 15 Verg 98,0 44,8 14 Räik 97,0 64,1 13 Alon 86,8 73,4 1 Webb 85,7 60,9 3 Gros 75,9 52,4 4 Suti 70,4 40,6 5 Mass 66,8 42,7 1 Hülk 65,4 45,9 1 Butt 32,9 24,1 0 Guti 21,6 13,6 0 Pere 18,8 11,4 0 Mald 2,0 1,1 0
Sebastian Vettel becomes the first, and potentially only, 100% surprise of the season! Congratulations, we all underrated you!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Webber Grosjean Alonso Räikkönen * Potential 397 * Potential 248 * Potential 187 * Potential 307 * Potential 277 * Forecast 376 Barty 242 Estwald 165 skylark68 281 M2000-5 275 * Current 297 Anderis 225 an1res 150 Bleu 275 Iscurrega 251 Anderis 280 Costaz 200 noikeee 148 * Forecast 262 noikeee 242 Makarias 276 kismet 200 Anderis 142 August 262 * Forecast 224 kismet 274 Fastcake 198 Makarias 142 KWSN-DSM 260 Barty 222 Bleu 272 * Forecast 187 scheivlak 141 Iscurrega 254 Costaz 221 noikeee 272 DutchQuicksilver181 Kalmake 134 M2000-5 251 Wander 196 Apex 270 an1res 180 AcuraF1 131 an1res 250 Anderis 188 August 267 Apex 180 Wander 124 Costaz 250 Estwald 185 wattoroos 263 Estwald 180 skylark68 122 kismet 250 Bleu 183 Iscurrega 260 mark f1 180 M2000-5 121 Kalmake 249 Kalmake 183 scheivlak 260 Wlleiotl 180 mark f1 120 AcuraF1 245 AcuraF1 180 KWSN-DSM 259 Fisichella_2001 175 wattoroos 118 Anderis 245 Apex 180 Costaz 254 Bleu 173 Costaz 114 Wlleiotl 240 Wlleiotl 180 Fisichella_2001 252 Kalmake 173 Fisichella_2001 114 DutchQuicksilver236 August 179 Wander 251 skylark68 169 Brawn BGP 001 113 noikeee 236 * Current 177 mark f1 250 AcuraF1 168 Grayson 110 scheivlak 235 skylark68 176 skylark68 250 Wander 162 * Forecast 110 Estwald 230 an1res 174 Wlleiotl 250 KWSN-DSM 160 KWSN-DSM 105 mark f1 230 mark f1 170 DutchQuicksilver247 Iscurrega 158 Apex 100 Fisichella_2001 229 DutchQuicksilver167 Fastcake 247 Makarias 158 DutchQuicksilver100 Fastcake 227 Makarias 166 Barty 241 wattoroos 158 Iscurrega 100 Makarias 227 Fisichella_2001 165 Kalmake 239 Grayson 155 kismet 99 wattoroos 223 scheivlak 163 M2000-5 236 noikeee 153 Barty 89 Wander 222 wattoroos 163 Estwald 235 M2000-5 152 * Current 87 Apex 220 Grayson 160 AcuraF1 230 * Current 148 Wlleiotl 80 Grayson 210 KWSN-DSM 158 Grayson 230 scheivlak 145 Bleu 76 Brawn BGP 001 207 kismet 147 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 144 Fastcake 72 * Current 207 Fastcake 128 Brawn BGP 001 211 August 116 August 63 Barty 192 Brawn BGP 001 123
Grosjean's recent progress has improved his forecast and he just might cause the odd surprise in this game over the final races.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Hülkenberg Gutierrez Rosberg Button Massa * Potential 139 * Potential 106 * Potential 226 Costaz 248 an1res 210 Bleu 84 August 43 * Forecast 160 Fastcake 241 M2000-5 199 Wlleiotl 80 Barty 40 scheivlak 152 Brawn BGP 001 222 Kalmake 192 wattoroos 78 Wlleiotl 40 an1res 140 Barty 209 * Potential 190 Estwald 70 Iscurrega 36 AcuraF1 139 wattoroos 208 kismet 175 KWSN-DSM 69 Brawn BGP 001 32 KWSN-DSM 138 Iscurrega 201 Anderis 170 Makarias 69 Fisichella_2001 32 Kalmake 130 Wlleiotl 200 Estwald 155 Wander 67 Wander 31 * Current 126 kismet 199 noikeee 150 Brawn BGP 001 66 an1res 30 Grayson 125 August 197 skylark68 144 AcuraF1 65 Grayson 30 DutchQuicksilver124 AcuraF1 195 Bleu 140 Apex 65 Kalmake 30 Makarias 118 Bleu 190 Makarias 139 Grayson 65 M2000-5 30 Fastcake 117 DutchQuicksilver190 DutchQuicksilver135 skylark68 63 Fastcake 29 Estwald 115 Wander 185 Wander 134 scheivlak 62 KWSN-DSM 28 Fisichella_2001 112 Fisichella_2001 182 wattoroos 133 August 60 Makarias 28 Brawn BGP 001 111 Apex 180 Costaz 132 mark f1 60 Bleu 27 noikeee 105 Grayson 175 Fisichella_2001 130 M2000-5 57 kismet 27 Wander 105 mark f1 170 Iscurrega 130 Fisichella_2001 56 skylark68 26 skylark68 104 skylark68 170 mark f1 130 Barty 55 mark f1 25 Anderis 100 Makarias 164 AcuraF1 121 Fastcake 54 DutchQuicksilver 24 Apex 100 scheivlak 164 Apex 120 Anderis 50 AcuraF1 23 mark f1 100 * Potential 160 Grayson 120 Iscurrega 50 scheivlak 22 Wlleiotl 100 KWSN-DSM 157 KWSN-DSM 115 noikeee 50 noikeee 21 Iscurrega 94 M2000-5 157 * Forecast 114 DutchQuicksilver 49 Apex 20 August 88 noikeee 151 Brawn BGP 001 111 kismet 49 Costaz 20 wattoroos 88 an1res 150 scheivlak 110 * Forecast 49 Estwald 20 Bleu 79 Estwald 145 Wlleiotl 100 Kalmake 45 Anderis 18 M2000-5 78 Kalmake 145 August 91 Costaz 43 wattoroos 18 Barty 77 Anderis 127 Fastcake 91 * Current 39 * Forecast 8 Costaz 77 * Forecast 76 * Current 90 an1res 30 * Current 6 kismet 67 * Current 60 Barty 60
Expect the resurgent Saubers to cause some upsets as well in the end! Rosberg has a decent chance to join Vettel as a 100% surprise; not many others do.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- scheivlak 1633,5 21,5 KWSN-DSM 1606,7 14,0 Apex 1598,1 6,3 AcuraF1 1591,0 12,2 noikeee 1588,8 13,3 DutchQuicksilver 1576,9 7,4 mark f1 1574,8 14,4 skylark68 1566,7 11,2 Iscurrega 1566,6 3,1 Fisichella_2001 1564,5 13,4 Makarias 1551,6 15,7 Wander 1550,5 14,7 Costaz 1549,7 20,4 Anderis 1548,1 26,8 an1res 1543,7 10,8 Bleu 1543,0 -2,7 Kalmake 1542,2 11,3 Grayson 1540,3 14,0 Estwald 1535,1 13,7 kismet 1522,4 12,8 wattoroos 1515,1 10,1 M2000-5 1515,1 10,5 Wlleiotl 1510,9 8,0 August 1497,3 7,7 Fastcake 1482,8 18,7 Barty 1443,9 14,3 Brawn BGP 001 1419,1 19,2
Grosjean, Hülkenberg and Gutierrez aided the forecasts up. Pretty promising for scheivlak it seems...
