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Driver Progression Ranking (DPR)


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#1 gluon

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 19:43

I decided to create what I call the Driver Progression Ranking (DPR). This isn't about who's the best driver but rather an attempt to answer a question I often ask myself: Which driver entertained me the most this weekend? By this I mean a good qualifying performance but mostly a notable progression during the race.

Thus I'm using a very simple formula to calculate the DPR of each driver during the weekend:

DPR = (Q_WEIGHT * (NUM_DRIVERS - Q_POS)) + (R_WEIGHT * (Q_POS - R_POS))

This gives a point for each position a driver conquers during qualifying and the race but since I find it more difficult and entertaining to progress on Sunday I'm using Q_WEIGHT = 1 and R_WEIGHT = 2.

This is obviously subjective and prone to many errors like for instance when a driver has a very negative progress because he DNFs due to mechanical issues, nevertheless I can say that with a few exceptions the results are more or less what I expected from watching the races.

 

I guess considering the current position of the driver before the mechanical DNF would be the best shot, but there are two problems: first I guess the only place where this info can be found is in the race footage (or maybe using the F1LT software) and second we'd never know how fair it would be since we can't say where the driver in question would finish without the problem. Anyway, suggestions are more than welcome.

 

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Edited by gluon, 21 October 2013 - 19:43.


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#2 wrcva

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 00:57

thanks for the effort and sharing  :up:    Since you have the data in place, here are some ideas;   I guess it is possible to define progression or position gain as having two components;   1) Driver against other drivers. 2) Driver against his teammate.   Then, a possible simple enhancement to your model could be;   For each race;

1) Against all other drivers; 

  Q Position / 22 = Q

  R Position / 22 = R

2) Against his teammate; 

  Q Position / Teammate Q Position = QT

  R Position / Teammate R Position = RT

Then, Q+R+QT+ RT = Total demerit points for a race... and when you sum up all races for the season the lowest score should account for the best quantitative progression without complicating the model (and doable in excel)...  You may still use the weights, and/or possibly normalize for dnf by re-indexing everything by the # of races completed but dnf (self or team induced) is a part of life in any case ...  


Edited by wrcva, 23 October 2013 - 00:59.


#3 gluon

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 22:26

Sorry for the late reply but my post got lost and I've only seen your comment today. Thanks for your input, it makes a lot of sense to also rank the driver in direct comparison with his teammate. I'll tweak the ranking with some ideas I've had meanwhile and possibly include your suggestion too after this weekend's race.



#4 f1RacingForever

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 01:55

i do not understand the chart (maybe im just dumb :lol:) but i like the idea for this thread. Im going to guess that kimi wins this weekends ranking as he seems to be underperforming in Q lately but always has strong races. :up:



#5 Nustang70

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 06:56

Interesting.  What are the results for the other drivers?



#6 sopa

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:09



 Which driver entertained me the most this weekend? 

 

Umm, I think the question you'd like to answer with this data is a bit different. Perez for example was perhaps the most entertaining driver at Monaco, yet scored -3 with this system.

 

Maybe for "entertainment" the count the amount of passes and on-track battles can be counted in some ways.



#7 DrivenF1

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:24

What about including driver preference? You love Raikkonen so each pass/place gained = more points, you hate Alonso so each place lost from his qualifying place equals more points.

 

I'm not being entirely serious but surely a better way to do this is to rate each driver on their entertainment value straight after the race. Fresh in the mind, can crunch complex situations and pick out the truly outstanding entertainment moments - you can even ask others to vote. You can't measure this with an objective easy-to-find set of numbers, just not that easy.



#8 Lights

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:55

I decided to create what I call the Driver Progression Ranking (DPR). This isn't about who's the best driver but rather an attempt to answer a question I often ask myself: Which driver entertained me the most this weekend? By this I mean a good qualifying performance but mostly a notable progression during the race.

 

 

Button in 4th means there has to be some flaw somewhere.

 

Well, one of them that mechanicals have too much effect, but you already figured that out. For the rest it's hard to say from here.



#9 gluon

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 10:42

i do not understand the chart (maybe im just dumb :lol:) but i like the idea for this thread. Im going to guess that kimi wins this weekends ranking as he seems to be underperforming in Q lately but always has strong races. :up:

I guess I didn't explain the chart as well as I could.

 

For each race and driver I'm listing their qualifying [Q] and race [R] positions, then below in bold it's the driver progression ranking (DPR) calculated for that particular weekend given by the formula at the top of the chart. The points column is the total DPR for each driver. Now, the way I'm currently calculating the DPR for each weekend is simply a sum of qualifying progression with race progression. Qualifying progression for a given driver is defined as number_of_drivers - qualifying_position_of_the_driver. So for instance if Vettel qualifies 1st he gets 22 - 1 = 21 points (maximum), whereas if Max Chilton qualifies last he gets 22 - 22 = 0 points (minimum). Race progression for a given driver is defined as qualifying_position_of_the_driver - race_position_of_the_driver. So for instance if Räikkönen qualifies 10th and finishes the race in 2nd he gets 10 - 2 = 8 points (good progression), whereas if Vettel qualifies 1st and finishes 1st he gets 1 - 1 = 0 points (no progression). Then I finally multiply both qualifying and race by weights to give more relevance to one or the other.


Edited by gluon, 26 October 2013 - 10:44.


#10 gluon

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 10:47

Interesting.  What are the results for the other drivers?

Thanks. I'll post a complete chart after the Indian GP.



#11 gluon

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 10:57

 

Umm, I think the question you'd like to answer with this data is a bit different. Perez for example was perhaps the most entertaining driver at Monaco, yet scored -3 with this system.

 

Maybe for "entertainment" the count the amount of passes and on-track battles can be counted in some ways.

Yes, it's far from perfect and probably it's more about driver progression at the end of the race, which might not represent the whole picture. The example you mentioned is about the major flaw of this ranking so far, which as I said on the opening message does not exclude mechanical failures (like Sergio's brake problems at Monaco).

 

Anyway, it's difficult to find a perfect formula for something as subjective as this. My goal is rather to give it a try and improve as much as possible.



#12 gluon

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 11:02

What about including driver preference? You love Raikkonen so each pass/place gained = more points, you hate Alonso so each place lost from his qualifying place equals more points.

 

I'm not being entirely serious but surely a better way to do this is to rate each driver on their entertainment value straight after the race. Fresh in the mind, can crunch complex situations and pick out the truly outstanding entertainment moments - you can even ask others to vote. You can't measure this with an objective easy-to-find set of numbers, just not that easy.

Yes, just like I said previously I agree that "entertainment" isn't the best word. Moreover, it's indeed difficult to measure something subjective with a formula, nevertheless if we stick with my original name for the ranking (driver progression ranking) it makes some sense.



#13 gluon

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 11:06

Button in 4th means there has to be some flaw somewhere.

 

Well, one of them that mechanicals have too much effect, but you already figured that out. For the rest it's hard to say from here.

I had that same reaction about Button initially. But I guess it means Jenson has been having some nice midfield battles and constantly recovering positions during the race (albeit not always seen on TV). On the other hand, with no DNFs Button and Perez are the exception to the 2 DNFs on average by most other drivers, which is also a factor.



#14 wrcva

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 11:12

What about including driver preference? You love Raikkonen so each pass/place gained = more points, you hate Alonso so each place lost from his qualifying place equals more points.

 

I'm not being entirely serious but surely a better way to do this is to rate each driver on their entertainment value straight after the race. Fresh in the mind, can crunch complex situations and pick out the truly outstanding entertainment moments - you can even ask others to vote. You can't measure this with an objective easy-to-find set of numbers, just not that easy.

 

as you introduce subjective or qualitative factors this can turn into yet another my driver vs. your driver mess...  

 

What @Gluon is trying to do is to capture position gain/loss (usually is a good proxy for racing entertainment, and strategy) which are not necessarily reflected in the usual points table.  Doing that objectively - based on real Q and R numbers -  is a good idea, I think.   



#15 gluon

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 19:48

Here's the Driver Progression Ranking (DPR) after the Indian Grand Prix.

I tweaked the formula a little bit (inspired by wrcva), now I also include the progression relative to the teammate's position. Essentially this gives a bonus for drivers beating their respective teammates and conversely penalises the drivers beaten by their teammates.

It was interesting to see Hulkenberg, Ricciardo, Sutil and Di Resta mixing up with the top guys and Webber falling off the top 14 after this change.

Regarding the DNF issue, I still didn't find a solution which doesn't affect other drivers, nevertheless as the season approaches the end the total number of DNFs tends to average out.

 

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