The standings after Abu Dhabi:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) scheivlak 1559 43 2) Apex 1541 35 3) AcuraF1 1527 47 4) KWSN-DSM 1526 31 5) Makarias 1515 38 6) Fisichella_2001 1511 47 7) mark f1 1510 47 8) DutchQuicksilver 1508 35 9) Grayson 1504 30 10) noikeee 1502 33 = Wander 1502 43 12) skylark68 1485 47 13) Kalmake 1481 46 = wattoroos 1481 47 15) Estwald 1478 55 16) an1res 1475 47 17) Anderis 1467 46 18) Iscurrega 1458 26 19) Bleu 1453 35 20) Wlleiotl 1450 39 21) Costaz 1437 46 22) kismet 1434 39 23) Fastcake 1425 31 24) August 1420 19 25) M2000-5 1406 32 26) Brawn BGP 001 1393 26 27) Barty 1356 29
A mighty 55 points for Estwald. Increased lead for scheivlak.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Rosb 148,9 103,9 27 diRe 137,9 78,7 22 Vett 137,8 123,5 27 Ricc 137,2 70,4 21 Hami 126,7 85,8 25 Räik 100,3 66,3 17 Gros 99,5 68,7 12 Verg 98,0 44,8 14 Webb 96,1 68,3 11 Alon 91,0 77,0 3 Mass 78,7 50,2 4 Suti 78,5 45,3 8 Hülk 65,4 45,9 1 Butt 32,9 24,1 0 Pere 28,6 17,3 0 Guti 21,6 13,6 0 Mald 2,0 1,1 0
Nico Rosberg becomes the second 100% surprise of the season! Well done!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2012 this is 28.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Webber Rosberg Grosjean Alonso * Potential 397 Barty 242 * Potential 209 Estwald 165 skylark68 281 * Forecast 388 Anderis 225 * Forecast 178 * Potential 164 Bleu 275 * Current 347 * Potential 216 * Current 159 an1res 150 * Potential 267 Anderis 280 Costaz 200 scheivlak 152 noikeee 148 August 262 Makarias 276 kismet 200 an1res 140 Anderis 142 KWSN-DSM 260 kismet 274 Fastcake 198 AcuraF1 139 Makarias 142 Iscurrega 254 Bleu 272 * Forecast 186 KWSN-DSM 138 scheivlak 141 M2000-5 251 noikeee 272 DutchQuicksilver181 Kalmake 130 Kalmake 134 an1res 250 Apex 270 an1res 180 Grayson 125 AcuraF1 131 Costaz 250 August 267 Apex 180 DutchQuicksilver124 * Forecast 127 kismet 250 wattoroos 263 Estwald 180 Makarias 118 Wander 124 Kalmake 249 Iscurrega 260 mark f1 180 Fastcake 117 skylark68 122 AcuraF1 245 scheivlak 260 Wlleiotl 180 Estwald 115 M2000-5 121 Anderis 245 KWSN-DSM 259 Fisichella_2001 175 Fisichella_2001 112 mark f1 120 * Forecast 243 Costaz 254 Bleu 173 Brawn BGP 001 111 wattoroos 118 Wlleiotl 240 Fisichella_2001 252 Kalmake 173 noikeee 105 Costaz 114 DutchQuicksilver236 Wander 251 skylark68 169 Wander 105 Fisichella_2001 114 noikeee 236 mark f1 250 AcuraF1 168 skylark68 104 * Current 114 scheivlak 235 skylark68 250 * Current 166 Anderis 100 Brawn BGP 001 113 Estwald 230 Wlleiotl 250 Wander 162 Apex 100 Grayson 110 mark f1 230 DutchQuicksilver247 KWSN-DSM 160 mark f1 100 KWSN-DSM 105 Fisichella_2001 229 Fastcake 247 Iscurrega 158 Wlleiotl 100 Apex 100 Fastcake 227 Barty 241 Makarias 158 Iscurrega 94 DutchQuicksilver100 Makarias 227 Kalmake 239 wattoroos 158 August 88 Iscurrega 100 wattoroos 223 M2000-5 236 Grayson 155 wattoroos 88 kismet 99 Wander 222 Estwald 235 noikeee 153 Bleu 79 Barty 89 Apex 220 AcuraF1 230 M2000-5 152 M2000-5 78 Wlleiotl 80 * Current 217 Grayson 230 scheivlak 145 Barty 77 Bleu 76 Grayson 210 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 144 Costaz 77 Fastcake 72 Brawn BGP 001 207 Brawn BGP 001 211 August 116 kismet 67 August 63 Barty 192
Grosjean is clearly on form, so his forecast feels a bit pessimistic. Webber's prospects seem dependent on reliability, as usual.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Di Resta Hamilton Massa Perez Sutil * Potential 98 * Potential 225 an1res 210 Brawn BGP 001 201 * Potential 79 Wlleiotl 60 scheivlak 203 M2000-5 199 August 170 wattoroos 63 Barty 55 * Forecast 196 Kalmake 192 Fastcake 161 Wlleiotl 60 * Forecast 54 August 181 kismet 175 Kalmake 154 Barty 55 wattoroos 53 * Current 175 Anderis 170 Costaz 141 kismet 51 Brawn BGP 001 51 Grayson 165 * Potential 156 Fisichella_2001 141 Grayson 50 Estwald 50 Apex 160 Estwald 155 Grayson 140 Estwald 45 * Current 48 KWSN-DSM 159 noikeee 150 wattoroos 133 August 44 Grayson 45 Makarias 158 skylark68 144 Iscurrega 132 DutchQuicksilver 42 kismet 44 Fastcake 157 Bleu 140 Makarias 129 Apex 40 Apex 40 DutchQuicksilver156 Makarias 139 DutchQuicksilver128 AcuraF1 39 Fastcake 40 noikeee 152 DutchQuicksilver135 KWSN-DSM 125 Fastcake 39 Fisichella_2001 39 mark f1 150 Wander 134 Wander 122 Bleu 36 skylark68 39 AcuraF1 145 wattoroos 133 Barty 121 Fisichella_2001 36 Wander 39 Fisichella_2001 138 Costaz 132 Wlleiotl 120 mark f1 35 mark f1 35 wattoroos 138 Fisichella_2001 130 skylark68 116 skylark68 35 AcuraF1 33 Wander 136 Iscurrega 130 Anderis 114 scheivlak 34 scheivlak 32 Brawn BGP 001 133 mark f1 130 Apex 110 Wander 34 DutchQuicksilver 31 Bleu 129 AcuraF1 121 mark f1 104 Brawn BGP 001 33 an1res 30 Iscurrega 128 Apex 120 Bleu 103 * Forecast 32 August 29 Estwald 124 Grayson 120 kismet 101 an1res 30 Bleu 28 Costaz 122 * Forecast 118 Estwald 100 * Current 29 KWSN-DSM 26 skylark68 120 KWSN-DSM 115 noikeee 98 Iscurrega 27 Iscurrega 25 Wlleiotl 120 Brawn BGP 001 111 an1res 90 Costaz 26 M2000-5 22 kismet 118 scheivlak 110 scheivlak 88 Kalmake 26 Costaz 21 Kalmake 115 * Current 106 * Potential 85 KWSN-DSM 25 Kalmake 19 an1res 110 Wlleiotl 100 AcuraF1 84 Makarias 25 Makarias 19 Anderis 105 August 91 M2000-5 82 M2000-5 24 noikeee 18 Barty 105 Fastcake 91 * Forecast 39 noikeee 22 Anderis 17 M2000-5 101 Barty 60 * Current 35 Anderis 21
Both di Resta and Hamilton can still reach 100% surprise, but they both need strong results to do that. Perez, or rather McLaren, is bound to be a 100% disappointment with not a single guess beaten between the two drivers.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- scheivlak 1636,5 -7,6 AcuraF1 1601,9 -7,9 Apex 1594,2 -7,4 noikeee 1585,0 -16,6 KWSN-DSM 1580,9 -13,0 mark f1 1579,2 -9,0 DutchQuicksilver 1575,5 -5,7 Makarias 1567,5 -3,8 Fisichella_2001 1566,0 -11,4 Wander 1562,5 -8,1 Anderis 1559,5 3,5 Kalmake 1556,0 -5,8 an1res 1555,9 -1,1 skylark68 1555,5 -14,3 Estwald 1554,9 2,1 Grayson 1538,0 -10,3 Iscurrega 1534,1 -26,2 Costaz 1532,1 -13,7 wattoroos 1528,5 -5,5 Bleu 1519,5 -15,2 Wlleiotl 1512,6 2,1 kismet 1511,5 -4,5 M2000-5 1492,9 -28,4 Fastcake 1474,5 1,5 August 1471,5 -11,6 Barty 1424,2 -6,1 Brawn BGP 001 1421,0 -4,6
Forecasts generally lower; scheivlak looks safe.
