39 replies to this topic

[DrivenF1]

I keep track of data (as part of my prediction league) that I thought would be interesting to share. This is a measure of how dominant a driver is over their teammate:

 

Vettel (89%)

Hulkenberg (86%)

Bianchi (82%)

Alonso (74%)

Raikkönen (66%)

Pic (63%)

Button (62%)

Di Resta (60%)

Ricciardo (58%)

Maldonado (55%)

Hamilton (51%)

 

It's based on who beats who in a session, it doesn't take into account relative position or time. Sessions where one or both of the drivers don't set times or races where they don't finish don't count.

 

I've put a relative weighting on the four different aspects:

 

The three practice sessions - 15%

Qualifying - 40%

Race - 40%

Fastest Lap - 5%

 

This clearly weights it towards qualifying and race with P1, P2, P3 and fastest lap only accounting for 5% each.

 

Comparison across sessions

Vettel/Webber - Practice (34-13), Qualifying (15-2), Race (12-0), Fastest Lap (10-7)

Hulkenberg/Gutierrez - Practice (37-11), Qualifying (16-1), Race (10-2), Fastest Lap (10-2)

Bianchi/Chilton - Practice (31-11), Qualifying (15-2), Race (12-3), Fastest Lap (11-5)

Alonso/Massa - Practice (35-11), Qualifying (9-8), Race (14-1), Fastest Lap (13-3)

Raikkönen/Grosjean - Practice (23-24), Qualifying (11-6), Race (9-3), Fastest Lap (9-6)

Pic/Van der Garde - Practice (22-17), Qualifying (10-7), Race (9-4), Fastest Lap (10-5)

Button/Perez - Practice (35-12), Qualifying (9-8), Race (11-5), Fastest Lap (7-10)

Di Resta/Sutil - Practice (21-22), Qualifying (10-7), Race (7-3), Fastest Lap (3-13)

Ricciardo/Vergne - Practice (21-27), Qualifying (13-4), Race (4-5), Fastest Lap (9-8)

Maldonado/Bottas - Practice (33-15), Qualifying (7-10), Race (9-5), Fastest Lap (8-9)

Hamilton/Rosberg - Practice (22-25), Qualifying (10-7), Race (6-7), Fastest Lap (8-9)

 

Are there any results which surprised you? Also are there better ways to easily measure teammates against each other?

[baddog]

Qualifying should get a lot lot less (being very generous, half) the weight of the race.. it is just a pre-race way of setting start positions, and people actually take a dive in qualy to help the race because the race is the only thing that really matters.

 

try that change and see what you get?

[Zoetrope]

I don't think Practice session has any meaning, even those 15%. Also the fastest lap if drivers are on different strategies.

But good job on your hard work, it's pretty much what we see on TV. Vettel, Hulk and Bianchi dominating their team mates. I expected more from Hamilton and Maldonado prior to the season.

[Melchiot]

Rosberg beat Hamilton in races more often then not, but at the end of the season you'll still have ppl. say Hamilton had Rosberg firm in his grips all season long.

[DrivenF1]

Qualifying should get a lot lot less (being very generous, half) the weight of the race.. it is just a pre-race way of setting start positions, and people actually take a dive in qualy to help the race because the race is the only thing that really matters.

 

try that change and see what you get?

 

Qualifying isn't as important as the race by any means but it's also a purer form of competition. Any number of things could go wrong in the race which are no reflection of someone's skill level.

 

Perhaps you're right that qualifying should have less weighting though.

 

I don't think Practice session has any meaning, even those 15%. Also the fastest lap if drivers are on different strategies.

But good job on your hard work, it's pretty much what we see on TV. Vettel, Hulk and Bianchi dominating their team mates. I expected more from Hamilton and Maldonado prior to the season.

 

Practice sessions have some meaning (psychological, better in low grip conditions, better at getting the car set-up initally) but arguably it could be toned down even further than 15%.

 

You're definitely right about fastest laps - it has little relevance e.g. Di Resta has beaten Sutil in 70% of races they've both finished however Sutil has set faster laps in 81% of races.

Edited by Cult, 05 November 2013 - 10:31.

[TomNokoe]

Rosberg beat Hamilton in races more often then not, but at the end of the season you'll still have ppl. say Hamilton had Rosberg firm in his grips all season long.

Over the whole season, Hamilton has beaten Rosberg in more races. Memories in F1 are very short and it seems the deduction of Hamilton's overall performance this season has been dramatically reduced in the past few races, which I find somewhat unfair. They have been a good pairing this year and will be even better next year. Hamilton is just about getting the job done but Rosberg is finally confirming his status as a very good racecar driver. 

[DrivenF1]

Rosberg is highly rated in the paddock -

 

He beat Schumacher over three years and is matching Hamilton this year.

 

Both Hulk and Perez said Rosberg is the fastest German: http://m.bbc.co.uk/s...rmula1/21015802 (Only Perez - can't find source for Hulk but remember seeing it in a FIA transcript because I was surprised at the time seeing as he's German)

Edited by Cult, 05 November 2013 - 11:00.

[Borko]

For me the only thing that really matters is who is faster in the race trim.

[TomNokoe]

"Matching" be honest with yourself... Do you think Rosberg has been 100% definitely on a par with Lewis Hamilton, or because he has exceeded expectations and come very close to Hamilton, do you give Rosberg an allowance and say he has matched Hamilton?

[Lights]

Should be more like:

 

The three practice sessions - 0%

Qualifying - 10%

Race - 90%

Fastest Lap - 0%

[Bloggsworth]

"Matching" be honest with yourself... Do you think Rosberg has been 100% definitely on a par with Lewis Hamilton, or because he has exceeded expectations and come very close to Hamilton, do you give Rosberg an allowance and say he has matched Hamilton?

 

I would say Rosberg is ahead of Hamilton, much to my, and everyone else's surprise.

[Raven8]

I would say Rosberg is ahead of Hamilton, much to my, and everyone else's surprise.

Wouldn't say that

[Gilles4Ever]

Great contributions, very detailed, well argued, really good for encouraging discussion. 

 

There are 10 other teams, don't get stuck on Hamilton vs Rosberg, there is a separate thread for that.

[DrivenF1]

"Matching" be honest with yourself... Do you think Rosberg has been 100% definitely on a par with Lewis Hamilton, or because he has exceeded expectations and come very close to Hamilton, do you give Rosberg an allowance and say he has matched Hamilton?

 

Definitely, I corrected my post immediately.

 

Race head-to-head is the best way to measure driver performance in some respects (especially if you take out retirements from the mix) - there is an argument that retirements are caused by drivers but a lot are caused by mechanical issues.

[Raven8]

Should be more like:

 

The three practice sessions - 0%

Qualifying - 10%

Race - 90%

Fastest Lap - 0%

Not really qualifying has a huge impact on races as we see every race.

[DrivenF1]

I'd be happy with:

 

Practice - 5% 

Qualifying - 35%

Race - 60%

Fastest lap - 0%

 

I think fastest laps mean pretty much nothing although they're also a measure of performance.

 

I think it's unfair to strip qualifying down to 10%, if Ricciardo dominates Vergne all weekend but Vergne retires then we'll get a zero score for race and qualifying will be weighted insignificantly.

[Exb]

Maldonado/Bottas is interesting. Much closer than I thought it would be considering Bottas is a rookie, and in the breakdown in individual sessions Maldonado is ahead by a large amount in the practise sessions (33-15) but then Bottas is fairly close on the other sessions, maybe showing his improvement through the weekends - hopefully he will keep his seat for next year, with the lack of testing it takes rookies so much longer to get up to speed than it used too.

[Seanspeed]

Practices - 0%

Qualifying - 30%

Races - 70%

Fastest Laps - 0%

 

And even then, you still need to take a lot of things into consideration when ruling who did better in a race.  Its sometimes easy, often times not.  Go into any 'VS' thread and see the endless bickering about who did better in a non-straightforward race. 

 

Its worthwhile to just ignore all this and just consider who finished in front of who, as statistics are interesting, but it should come with a warning that 'numbers don't mean everything'.  That may be common sense for a lot of people, but not enough. 

[skywing]

Maldonado/Bottas is interesting. Much closer than I thought it would be considering Bottas is a rookie, and in the breakdown in individual sessions Maldonado is ahead by a large amount in the practise sessions (33-15) but then Bottas is fairly close on the other sessions, maybe showing his improvement through the weekends - hopefully he will keep his seat for next year, with the lack of testing it takes rookies so much longer to get up to speed than it used too.

The use of practice sessions in the comparison is flawed instantly when a team runs different configurations in the same session. For example in Abu Dhabi when Maldonado got the better exhaust solution and was much faster with it.

[Lights]

I'd be happy with:

 

Practice - 5% 

Qualifying - 35%

Race - 60%

Fastest lap - 0%

 

I think fastest laps mean pretty much nothing although they're also a measure of performance.

 

I think it's unfair to strip qualifying down to 10%, if Ricciardo dominates Vergne all weekend but Vergne retires then we'll get a zero score for race and qualifying will be weighted insignificantly.

That's external stuff that should be taken into account anyway. If a driver retires for example. But that's a different discussion.

 

And I still think qualifying shouldn't deserve a lot. Else we can just as well hand over 10% for the start and first corner too as that often proves to be as important as the actual starting position.

 

In the end it's about scoring as much points as possible in the race.

Edited by Lights, 05 November 2013 - 14:37.

[Lamag]

Over the whole season, Hamilton has beaten Rosberg in more races. Memories in F1 are very short and it seems the deduction of Hamilton's overall performance this season has been dramatically reduced in the past few races, which I find somewhat unfair. They have been a good pairing this year and will be even better next year. Hamilton is just about getting the job done but Rosberg is finally confirming his status as a very good racecar driver. 

 

8-9 according to the cold numbers.

 

Source: Clip The Apex

[Jimisgod]

Rosberg beat Hamilton in races more often then not, but at the end of the season you'll still have ppl. say Hamilton had Rosberg firm in his grips all season long.

Ah, I see you studied the revisionist history of Mclaren in 2011.

[MikeTekRacing]

Rosberg is finally confirming his status as a very good racecar driver. 

he has done that for the last few years but people just said Michael was slow. it looks like he wasn't

[Watkins74]

What I have learned is that there are no losing drivers in teammate battles but excuses  context of why they were slower.

[Kyo]

I'd be happy with:

 

Practice - 5% 

Qualifying - 35%

Race - 60%

Fastest lap - 0%

 

I think fastest laps mean pretty much nothing although they're also a measure of performance.

 

I think it's unfair to strip qualifying down to 10%, if Ricciardo dominates Vergne all weekend but Vergne retires then we'll get a zero score for race and qualifying will be weighted insignificantly.

Could you post the results considering

 

Practice - 5% 

Qualifying - 25%

Race - 70%

Fastest lap - 0%

 

It would be how I would do it. Obviously it is not perfect (you would need to go race by race and still there are some drivers that from time to time manage some spectacular drives worth more than a single point, and others more often than not responsible for their retirements) but I do think thats a good way to measure the performance of drivers against their teammates.

[Kyo]

I would also discard the races where a driver retired but was also classified in the end.

[Gorma]

For me the only thing that really matters is who is faster in the race trim.

Exactly. Practice sessions don't matter at all. At times drivers are testing totally different things and many times drivers run into traffic during qualifying simulations. This season people are saving tyres in the qualifying. So it is really not a good comparison. Fastest laps depend so much on strategy or even the failure of a strategy like with Kimi in India.

 

I'd weight it like this

 

0-5 % Practice sessions

30-40 % Qualy

60 % Race

0-5 % Fastest lap

[coppilcus]

Finding setup on fp should also be an important percentage to take into consideration... Though, it has different impact on each driver depending on which car team proves x or y parts or setup.

It definitely shows a near image of the general perception that everyone has on each teammates battles...

Interesting comparison cult, thanks!

[Thomas99]

Its hard to compare situations. In the front car only 1 driver can lead by pole, thus creating a situation in which Vettel and Webber have markedly different races. 

[Jimisgod]

Unsurprising Hamilton and Pastor have the smallest gap. Bottas and Rosberg have been pretty impressive. As have Bianchi and Hulkenberg.

[boldhakka]

It's pretty clear that a surprisingly large number of drivers can beat each other under varying circumstances. For me the gap between the so-called "top" drivers and the others has reduced considerably and uniformly. 

[Cesc]

We all know that Alonso is not a qualifier, but from 9-8 in quali to 14-1 in race...isn't that surprising? well, not really, but still it takes the statement "Alonso is a race driver" to the extreme. I have the feeling the guy is giving up on Saturdays, he doesn't really care to start 6th, 7th or 8th...

For most the team mates, the proportion is more or less similar between quali and race...

Edited by Cesc, 06 November 2013 - 13:55.

[ArkZ]

We all know that Alonso is not a qualifier, but from 9-8 in quali to 14-1 in race...isn't that surprising? well, not really, but still it takes the statement "Alonso is a race driver" to the extreme. I have the feeling the guy is giving up on Saturdays, he doesn't really care to start 6th, 7th or 8th...

For most the team mates, the proportion is more or less similar between quali and race...

Massa has often setup towards qualy, thus disappears in the race.

Edited by ArkZ, 06 November 2013 - 14:00.

[SanDiegoGo]

8-9 according to the cold numbers.

 

Source: Clip The Apex

 

Rosberg is closing out strong and Hamilton is waning. Maybe the fight is gone from Hamilton as it was over for him a long time ago and Rosberg is just getting on with it. I see Hamilton as a better racer, bur maybe Rosberg is a better driver. A season is a long haul and you need your driver to be 100% every race.

[Cesc]

Massa has often setup towards qualy, thus disappears in the race.

How do you know that?. If he knows that he's going to be slower in the race and end uo behind, why does he setup the car for quali?

Well, you may be right.

[mardmarium]

How do you know that?. If he knows that he's going to be slower in the race and end uo behind, why does he setup the car for quali?

Well, you may be right.

 

I don´t know if he setup the car for quali but there is a reason why he could be focused on quali performance instead of race performance. Being able to beat his teammate helps in order to have a seat in F1 and he probably thinks his options on race day are minimal so his focus could be on beating Alonso in quali.

[sv401]

he probably thinks his options on race day are minimal so his focus could be on beating Alonso in quali.

 

And to keep him behind in the race for as long as possible with defensive driving.

[mardmarium]

And to keep him behind in the race for as long as possible with defensive driving.

 

[PNSD]

Nico has been impressive. I'm quite the fan of his, but I expected Lewis to destroy him massively. Lewis has indeed struggled, but still Rosberg has put up a strong fight.

 

I expect next year to be just as close. Like Lewis with Button, Lewis seems to be getting more out of Nico. Lewis IMO really is making people raise their game. 

It's an exciting line up.

 

No surprises in that list except just how dominant Seb is!

[kosmos]

How do you know that?. If he knows that he's going to be slower in the race and end uo behind, why does he setup the car for quali?

Well, you may be right.

 

Because if Alonso qualify behind him, he has more chances to beat him in the race than if Alonso qualify in front of him, that's probably his mentality but at the end of the day, the data shows that is irrelevant.