40 replies to this topic

[Peter Perfect]

Given that Caterham and Marussia in their different guises have been lagging behind the midfield for the last few years, 2014 is a huge chance to leap up the grid. Various people up and down the grid have suggested that the first few races could well be an attrition-fest with those finishing virtually guaranteed to score, which could well give the 2 teams a good headstart. But is there a chance either team could crack the midfield? 

Edited by Peter Perfect, 25 January 2014 - 18:02.

[MirNyet]

The new rules could see a closing of the field - stable rules tend to turn into a spending spree of refinements and tweaks - all of which burn money and tend to be quite hard to catch up on (look at Red Bull pre-2009) - a rules shuffle should reset that trend (for the moment at least) and pull both teams closer to the rest. However - that said, it depends on why they were a second off the pace of the midfield to start with...

Edited by MirNyet, 25 January 2014 - 18:15.

[dau]

Can't see Marussia joining the midfield, but i'm hoping for Caterham. They have the facilities, they have the money, they have the people and they have at least one pretty experienced driver. Also i was hoping for them to get points since 2011 or so, i'm not going to give up on them now. Maybe after two races.

[Disgrace]

Their budgets are still the lowest in F1. The especially intense development race will work against them, even if a superhuman effort meant that they had midfield pace in Australia.

[george1981]

If as some people expect the power train is the crucial component this year then we could see some changes in the order this year. Also the lack of the exhaust blown diffuser should help them. I think Caterham and Marussia will still lag behind in aero though. These two will be the slowest of the Renault and Ferrari powered teams. If the Ferrari engine is a lot better than the Renault then maybe Marussia might get ahead of Toro Rosso etc.

Whether they would be considered the midfield is another matter.

[Peter Perfect]

Their budgets are still the lowest in F1. The especially intense development race will work against them, even if a superhuman effort meant that they had midfield pace in Australia.

 

Yep, I think what I'm hoping for is for one of them to have been inspired and start the season with a car that bumps them up significantly, even if they're out-developed for the rest of the season. Like George says, the power train will be decisive this year and if one of the manufacturers endures significant reliability problems it may well shuffle the grid more than would normally be possible.

 

I guess it's more hope that one of them jump up this year than for any specific reason, but if they don't when there's the most significant rules change in 20 years then when else will they?

[MirNyet]

I don't think its going to be the engine as such that resets the field, its the clean sheet design that almost everyone is having to do. Not much will have been carried over and a lot of the expensive and difficult stuff (blown floors, trick exhausts) is gone. 

[billm99uk]

I think they certainly have a chance for some unusually good results at the start of the year, before the larger teams get there cars sorted and developed. In the long run I expect budget will prevail though.

[andysaint]

For them to join the midfield a team needs to drop back. Williams and Force India have strengthened, Red Bull, Ferrari, Mc!aren, Mercedes should have too many resources to drop back that far. Sauber and Torro Rosso have not strengthened their line up and have regressed in my opinion so they could take on those two. Lotus if things are that bad will regress but surely not that far? I think if they have the reliability they have a good chance to move up but will struggle in the second half due to the greater development of others.

[Regiotap]

If they had beter drivers, they had a chance. Not now.

[LuckyStrike1]

None what so ever. Especially not now with new regulations. 

[Crossmax]

No chances, but I do believe at least one of these teams will collect their first points at the expense of other teams' reliability.

[rjsports]

I doubt it, but Caterham have been working on the 2014 car since mid 2012. They got it wrong with the blown diffuser in 2011, and haven't made any progress since. If it doesn't happen this year, it won't happen at all. I just think that there line-up isn't good. You can't tell if Kobayashi still has the speed, he only drove at Sauber (and a couple of races with Toyota) he did some very good things but I have never seen him as a leading man and develope a car. This year he will have to do that given the fact his team mate has zero expierence. I don't know if Marussia still has the technical support from McLaren, but that might help them. Bianchi is a good driver, but also still inexpierenced. Atleast this year he will get more winter testing with the team. Chilton, well. Not much to say since he is just financing the team.

[Longtimefan]

No chance whatsoever.

[P123]

I doubt either will, but there is a greater chance this season than ever before that one of them may be able to sneak a points finish or two due to the expected levels of unreliability throughout the field.

[Molo19]

Depends on what is meant by "joining midfield". I believe Caterham would have already had the chance for points, if they hadn't wasted resources on a failed blown diffuser technology. I fully expect them to score points in 2014. Probably no more than one or two, tho.

 

Meanwhile, I can't think of a compelling reason to expect Marussia to do the same, unless the Ferrari engine proves to be the class of the field. But that's speculation, and even if it does, Marussia will still have to be lucky - which is not an improbable concept next year, mind you.

[sopa]

So we have got two modern-day Minardis? Regardless of what is going to happen, you always know, who brings up the rear.

[CatInTheBag]

       To be honest, nobody knows, but I'm confident Caterham will be able to at least compete with the midfield teams, beat Marussia, and not fall 2s/lap behind.

 

       Team morale is high according to KK.

Edited by CatInTheBag, 26 January 2014 - 13:00.

[KWSN - DSM]

They both have a chance for occasional points, I do not see them overtaking any of the other teams and shuffle one of them downwards. The new engine and all that goes with it, should narrow the gap to the teams in front of them. As teams with stated ambitions they have not been very ambitious on the driver side, that more than anything will hamper them as the season progress. 5 drivers employed, 2 'belong' in F1 and have race seats, 2 does not 'belong' in F1 and have raceseats, last one have credentials and should be in F1, but are in a 3rd driver seat.

 

I hope both of them score some points, I do think it will be more to attrition than them suddenly being competitive.

 

[rmac923]

I think both teams will score a few lucky points early on. 

 

Once all the cars are reliable though, they'll return to back marker status.

[Jackmancer]

I don't think either of them can do a 'BrawnGP', but I think that resurrection of Honda showed what little budget can do when the rules are rewritten.

[Shiroo]

well well. If they won't join now midfield... then they won't join it ever.

So now or leave F1. IT is simply as that. Unless they love to be lagging 1sec behind the closest midfield team

[Jackmancer]

well well. If they won't join now midfield... then they won't join it ever.

So now or leave F1. IT is simply as that. Unless they love to be lagging 1sec behind the closest midfield team

 

I think you can still make a business of racing at the back; Minardi did that for many years.

 

But yes, Tony Fernandes already said that if another dissapointing season comes, they'll probably leave the sport.

[Gorma]

I don't think either of them can do a 'BrawnGP', but I think that resurrection of Honda showed what little budget can do when the rules are rewritten.

Well Brawn's car was by all accounts the most expensive F1 car ever built. One wonders what more it could have done with Honda's engine and backing.

[Rinehart]

Well Brawn's car was by all accounts the most expensive F1 car ever built. 

Imaginative!

 

I'm pretty sure that the have-nots will be further behind on pace this year, but I think at least one of these teams will points this season due to the combined effects of reliability and strategy.

[onemoresolo]

I don't think either of them can do a 'BrawnGP', but I think that resurrection of Honda showed what little budget can do when the rules are rewritten.

 

It didn't show anything of the sort, considering how many resources were poured into it before Honda pulled out.

[fluffy38]

It's hard to put an answer to that question until we know exactly how big the powertrain differences are.

The budgets havent changed though so if they are fairly even, there wont be that much difference with previous years ( thats where reliability issues could be handy)

[Peter Perfect]

Yep, I think what I'm hoping for is for one of them to have been inspired and start the season with a car that bumps them up significantly, even if they're out-developed for the rest of the season. Like George says, the power train will be decisive this year and if one of the manufacturers endures significant reliability problems it may well shuffle the grid more than would normally be possible.

 

I guess it's more hope that one of them jump up this year than for any specific reason, but if they don't when there's the most significant rules change in 20 years then when else will they?

 

In light of Renaults recent issues would anyone change their mind?

[KWSN - DSM]

I have changed my mind to the extent I can see Marussia grap some points in the first 3 races, possibly all 3. Permitting they finish the races obviously, I do not think they have build a worldbeater but they have Red Bull, Toro Rosso, Caterham and Lotus with a very suspect engine situation.

 

[AlexS]

Reliability and consumption can change everything. Specially Marussia if the Ferrari engine is much better. They are only competing directly with Sauber and Ferrari proper. While Caterham is competing with Red Bull, Toro Rosso, Lotus. So that is 6 cars instead of 4.

[Jimisgod]

Maybe if they steal some Mercedes engines from somewhere?

Marussia might leapfrog TR, Lotus and Caterham if the Renault-pocalypse is real.

[Morbus]

For them to join the midfield a team needs to drop back. Williams and Force India have strengthened, Red Bull, Ferrari, Mc!aren, Mercedes should have too many resources to drop back that far. Sauber and Torro Rosso have not strengthened their line up and have regressed in my opinion so they could take on those two. Lotus if things are that bad will regress but surely not that far? I think if they have the reliability they have a good chance to move up but will struggle in the second half due to the greater development of others.

It wasn't too long ago that Lotus (then Renault) was running right at the back of the field, behind everyone else. I can see Lotus dropping back that far, but I don't think they will. If they do, though, they won't be racing by next year's time.

[Knot]

But yes, Tony Fernandes already said that if another dissapointing season comes, they'll probably leave the sport.

 

More room for my US based F1 team.

 

I've secured sponsorship from ski maker Head.

 

The team will be called Knot Head Racing.

Edited by Knot, 01 February 2014 - 02:15.

[Petroltorque]

I don't think either of them can do a 'BrawnGP', but I think that resurrection of Honda showed what little budget can do when the rules are rewritten.

I think you'll find that Honda ploughed £200 million into the project that became Brawn. Having looked the Jerez test there is a possibility of disrupting the established order. I feel STR are vulnerable given the with the power train. Ironically it looks like Marussia has the best shot at getting on the back of the mid field. Caterham not only have to resolve the problems with the power unit, there also remains whether their front end design will actually work.

[turssi]

A few years back I had some faith in Caterham and no faith in Marussia. Today it's the opposite. Marussia is trying, does partnerships and is quick in its moves, while Caterham is re-lauching the same shoebox every year while giving out ambitious goals and generally talking big.

Really the Caterham packaging is not improving and this makes me wonder if they have the best in class CDF softwares with all the possible modules and integration to the best 3D product development suite. I believe that they are technologically challenged in this aerodynamics aspect.

[Timstr11]

Caterham join midfield?

 

Not with this scary tank they created....

 

[DutchQuicksilver]

And they appear dead slow as well. Marussia might have a slim chance at the first fly away races if they have good reliability.

[Spillage]

Let's not forget that at the last major rule change in 2009, Force India propelled themselves from a bunch of no-hopers (0pts in 2008) to an outfit that nearly won the Belgian GP. Sure, they still finished ninth out of ten in the WCC, but 2009 was so close I don't really think there was a rear-grid team. I don't really see any reason why either Caterham or Marussia shouldn't be able to make that jump. Such technical changes as these are era-defining moments.

Edited by Spillage, 01 February 2014 - 12:48.

[Petroltorque]

Let's not forget that at the last major rule change in 2009, Force India propelled themselves from a bunch of no-hopers (0pts in 2008) to an outfit that nearly won the Belgian GP. Sure, they still finished ninth out of ten in the WCC, but 2009 was so close I don't really think there was a rear-grid team. I don't really see any reason why either Caterham or Marussia should be able to make that jump. Such technical changes as these are era-defining moments.

Yes but FI had spent a mother load of money investing in a technology transfer with McLaren Apllied Technologies. Simon Roberts was seconded to the team with kickass results. Any shakeup will be as a result of established teams dropping the ball. I think STR is a candidate since they are the smallest outfit of that Cohort.

 I do think we need to reserve judgement on Caterham till the Renault power train is sorted.

[Bloggsworth]

Given that Marussia only signified on the last day, and then ran very few laps, I would say that to get within 3.9 seconds of that day's* fastest time augers well for early season pace; the question is whether a) these times can be reliably achieved, and b) whether Marussia can keep up producing updates to keep them there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* We are here referring to relative times, not absolutes, no attempt has been made to compare the actual pace achieved with that registered by Red Bull or any others in previous tests at the same circuit.

Edited by Bloggsworth, 01 February 2014 - 12:34.

[olliek88]

The Caterham might look a bit of a tubby Tina but that's not necessarily a bad thing. It might not be a coincidence they ran more laps than any other Renault engined team in Jerez, being conservative with their cooling might pay off early in the season with reliability and, as time goes on and they gain confidence with the amount of cooling required they can start shrinking the bodywork down a bit more and, hopefully, gain some performance. 

 

With that said they, the Marussia does look a little more developed and refined than the Caterham so if i had to bet on who'd be quicker right now it'd be the MR03 and not the CT04 but that's a bit of a shot in the dark at this stage. All i hope is that they both score some points this season, i do love a god underdog.