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Blind Projections for 2014


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#101 Anderis

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:00

Good list in general, but this one made me scratch my head. Lewis was stunning at Austin in 2012, and pretty good in 2013. I would say in equal machinery, he holds an edge over Nico at that track.

The fact that someone is very good around one circuit doesn't have to mean he will win that race against his team-mate. There are many variables in and outside the control of each driver which may change the actual outcome.


 



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#102 jjcale

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:05

My blind prediction is this.

 

For the WDC my head is firmly in 3 minds. I see a decent argument for Lewis and Nico, but I also find it hard to totally discount Vettel/RB. My heart is firmly hoping Lewis pulls it together and secures his long awaited 2nd WDC.

 

I will go with my heart, and say Lewis win be WDC, as there is no fun is sitting on the fence all the time.

 

WCC? I will go with Mercedes, as 2 of their drivers make up the 3 drivers I think have the best chance of becoming WDC.

 

As at this moment there is no reason to think SV has a shot at retaining his title.... 



#103 jjcale

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:07

 

I'll cheat and modify my list:

 

March 16: Australia - Hamilton
March 30: Malaysia - Bottas
April 6: Bahrain - Hamilton
April 20: China - Rosberg
May 11: Spain - Alonso
May 25: Monaco - Rosberg
June 8: Canada - Hamilton
June 22: Austria - Rosberg
July 6: Great Britain - Alonso
July 20: Germany - Hamilton
July 27: Hungary - Hamilton
August 24: Belgium - Raikkonen
September 7: Italy - Button
September 21: Singapore - Alonso
October 5: Japan - Button
October 12: Russia - Alonso
November 2: USA - Rosberg
November 9: Brazil - Magnussen
November 23: Abu Dhabi - Hamilton

 

1. Hamilton - 6 wins

2. Alonso - 4 wins

3. Rosberg - 4 wins

4. Button - 2 wins

5. Raikkonen - 1 win

6. Magnussen - 1 win

7. Hulkenberg

8. Bottas - 1 win

9. Massa

10. Vettel

 

 

IMHO if things stay like this for the whole season, LH will do at least 8 wins ... and being LH, you cant predict where they will come. 



#104 sennafan24

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:16

The fact that someone is very good around one circuit doesn't have to mean he will win that race against his team-mate. There are many variables in and outside the control of each driver which may change the actual outcome.

 

Yes, but these are "blind projections"

 

Given past form, I cannot see a reason why anyone would project Nico to beat Lewis at Austin this year.



#105 Anderis

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:22

Yes, but these are "blind projections"

 

Given past form, I cannot see a reason why anyone would project Nico to beat Lewis at Austin this year.

Someone can project Lewis will have a car failure in that race and here we go...

 

I also remember last year. The track on which Rosberg was outperformed by the biggest margin of all races by Lewis was considered his best circuit until that point (Shanghai), and then he outperformed Lewis by the biggest margin on Barcelona, which seemed to be a below average track for him.



#106 sennafan24

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:28

Someone can project Lewis will have a car failure in that race and here we go...

 

I also remember last year. The track on which Rosberg was outperformed by the biggest margin of all races by Lewis was considered his best circuit until that point (Shanghai), and then he outperformed Lewis by the biggest margin on Barcelona, which seemed to be a below average track for him.

I find it a bit odd people would try and predict when car failures will happen, it is a random event at this stage in my opinion. Fair play, if people want to try and predict them, but it just seems like predicting Saturday's Lottery Numbers.


Edited by sennafan24, 04 March 2014 - 09:28.


#107 Anderis

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:33

but it just seems like predicting Saturday's Lottery Numbers.

Trying to predict who would win a certain race is not much different from that. Things we don't know yet, like what circuits will match the strengths of what cars, and what random events will hapen during those races, will definetely outweight the previous record of each driver on particular track.



#108 string158

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:35

Bottas will win more that one race



#109 sennafan24

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:37

Trying to predict who would win a certain race is not much different from that. 

Yes, but at least then you can take into consideration past form and what we have seen in testing. They are not always accurate measurements, but they are informed by valid information and not complete randomness.

 

Predicting that one driver will get a DNF at one track, and another will not is purely random.



#110 Anderis

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:46

Predicting that one driver will get a DNF at one track, and another will not is purely random.

Not really. You can take into the account things like reliability of given car during testing etc. etc.

 

If there's no dominant car over a season, I'm fairly sure nobody will guess accurately more than around 1/3 of winners in races. And the probability says you would guess some winners even putting driver randomly, excluding obvious drivers who don't stand a chance, like Caterham and Marussia drivers. So there is not that much diffference, really.



#111 sennafan24

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 09:53

Not really. You can take into the account things like reliability of given car during testing etc. etc.

 

Sorry, I should have clarified

 

I meant predicting one teammate will suffer a mechanical failure at one track, whilst his teammate will not.



#112 PayasYouRace

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 10:09

The great thing is how I genuinely have no idea what to expect. I remember how badly wrong I got my 2009 predictions (I had a bet with my friends and we were all pretty far off) and that was after testing. So here goes.

 

1. Ferrari

2. Mercedes

3. McLaren

4. Red Bull

5. Lotus

6. Williams

7. Sauber

8. Force India

9. Toro Rosso

10. Caterham

11. Marussia

 

I feel like I've already got it seriously wrong. Haha!



#113 doc83

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 10:50

People seriously underestimate Redbull. That’s a huge mistake. They might start at the back but as soon as Renault will sort out their problems  they will be up there. 



#114 PayasYouRace

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 11:36

Let's see how well we did as a group. Averaging our predicted positions for each team, I proudly present, the Wisdom of the Autosport Crowds.

 

Pre-Testing:

 

1 - Mercedes

2 - Ferrari

3 - Red Bull

4 - McLaren

5 - Force India

6 - Williams

7 - Lotus

8 - Sauber

9 - Toro Rosso

10- Caterham

11- Marussia

 

Since testing started:

 

1 - Mercedes

2 - Ferrari

3 - McLaren

4 - Red Bull

5 - Williams

6 - Force India

7 - Sauber

8 - Lotus

9 - Toro Rosso

10- Marussia

11- Caterham



#115 BullHead

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 12:17

Looks about right to me that. I would put 7 Toro Rosso 8 Lotus 9 Sauber though.

#116 SealTheDiffuser

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 13:44

Australia:

 

1.Wiliams

2.Ferrari

3.Mercedes

4.Red Bull

5. Force India

6. McLaren

7.Toro Rosso

8. Sauber

9. Lotus

10. Marussia

11. Caterham



#117 Tsarwash

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 13:58

People seriously underestimate Redbull. That’s a huge mistake. They might start at the back but as soon as Renault will sort out their problems  they will be up there.

At the minute it seems as though both Red Bull and Renault have some serious problems. I have no doubt that by the time the European circuit comes around these will be ironed out somewhat, but by then I think they will be a long way behind.
I think that there is a fair chance that before Spain they could be a hundred points behind three teams, and that's quite a lot to make up, if the season is as unpredictable as people think it will be.

#118 doc83

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Posted 04 March 2014 - 16:12

At the minute it seems as though both Red Bull and Renault have some serious problems. I have no doubt that by the time the European circuit comes around these will be ironed out somewhat, but by then I think they will be a long way behind.
I think that there is a fair chance that before Spain they could be a hundred points behind three teams, and that's quite a lot to make up, if the season is as unpredictable as people think it will be.

 

Serious for the moment - yes. But remember that journalists and even Button were surprised by RB’s traction in high speed corners.  It may as well take 4-5 races to fix the engine (or even more), but after that they might be on top again. I’m not saying that will happen but people predicting RB 0 wins and being one of the worst teams in 2014 imho is a huge underestimation.



#119 Hamm

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 04:56

Australia:

 

1.Mercedes

2.Wiliams

3.McLaren

4.Ferrari

5.Force India

6.Toro Rosso

7.Lotus

8.Red Bull

9.Sauber

10.Marussia

11.Caterham



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#120 Zoetrope

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 08:52

I doubt Williams is really that good. I would still put my money on McLaren and Ferrari to be ahead of them. It's been a bit too long since Williams produced a top car and not much have changed within factory and engineering side of the team. And I also don't believe they can keep up with the development throughout the year. 

Australia:
1. Merc
2. McLaren
3. Ferrari (results might be flattered by two great drivers)
4. Williams
= Red Bull (expecting them to run into problems later in the race and forced to retire or back off)
6. Force India
= Lotus
8. Sauber
= Caterham
10. Torro Rosso
11. Marussia