228 replies to this topic

[Crossmax]

Out of curiosity, I wonder how grave you all think the Red Bull situation is (or, how well they will be able to recover, and how far they can get). Please vote what you believe, not what you hope, will happen. 

[PayasYouRace]

I think their problems have been exaggerated. They'll probably be up and running OK by the end of testing, getting in the points at Melbourne and by Silverstone challenging for he podium. They've obviously had a major setback but they're too good a team to be running round at the back all year. I'd expect them to be around 4th in the WCC by season end.

[Bartonz20let]

4 - 1 - 3 for me.

[Kerch]

I think by the first race Renault will have the engine running reasonably reliably, but at a performance hit (both in the engine and the RB packaging) that will cost something like 0.5-1.0 seconds a lap. That would see them contesting around 6-8th place at Melbourne. 

 

By Silverstone I think the FIA will have allowed Renault to make more complete updates to the engine, and they'll be competing for podiums or wins.

[Tombstone]

There's no selection for 'up sh*t creek without a paddle', so I'll not vote.

[sopa]

They may have double DNF in Australia, but ultimately it depends, how much speed potential does the car have and how quickly can they solve reliability issues.

 

Let's remember McLaren back in 2000, when they got zero points from the first two races. In fact in both 1999 and 2000 McLaren retired with both cars in Australia. Yet their speed was so good that after solving issues they were easily back in title contention.

 

Flip side is McLaren of 2004, who is not only unreliable, but lacked speed too. Though they still came good from Silverstone onwards, even if not able to really match Ferrari.

[BullHead]

I'll wait for the Bahrain tests. We simply haven't seen the car go yet. We will. The few laps that the Toro Rosso did on day one of Jerez seemed pretty good. When the car actually works I bet it'll it be good.

[Victor_RO]

I don't think they'll be able to mount a serious challenge for the titles this year. However, even if their start to the season turns out to be an unmitigated disaster, I can't see them going the whole season without a win if we take into account their development pace in seasons like 2010 and 2012. So... slow and unreliable in Melbourne, top 5 by mid-season, 4th in the WCC by the end of it and a few wins in the last third of the season.

[study]

To Quote a TV character

 

 

I believe the appropriate metaphor here involves a river of excrement and a Native American water vessel without any means of propulsion.

 

[study]

I'll wait for the Bahrain tests. We simply haven't seen the car go yet. We will. The few laps that the Toro Rosso did on day one of Jerez seemed pretty good. When the car actually works I bet it'll it be good.

 

It sounded like it was carry a bag of pebbles with the rattle it was producing

[Nonesuch]

It's too early to count any of the top teams of recent years out just yet. The start to Red Bull's 2014 season wasn't what anybody expected, but these are crafty folks and the first race is still a few weeks away.

 

If the problem is with Renault rather than with Red Bull it could be more worrying for them, but as of now I still expect them to be right up there.

Edited by Nonesuch, 31 January 2014 - 21:32.

[study]

Either way, the body work of the redbull is either going to have to be increased in size or have gills in them.

All these changes to get it working actually take away from adding performance changes

 

But Merc cars or Ferrari will have to make the most of it.

[crespo]

They may have double DNF in Australia, but ultimately it depends, how much speed potential does the car have and how quickly can they solve reliability issues.

 

Let's remember McLaren back in 2000, when they got zero points from the first two races. In fact in both 1999 and 2000 McLaren retired with both cars in Australia. Yet their speed was so good that after solving issues they were easily back in title contention.

 

Flip side is McLaren of 2004, who is not only unreliable, but lacked speed too. Though they still came good from Silverstone onwards, even if not able to really match Ferrari.

I think it's a mistake to look back at any of the previous examples to set a precedent. These drivetrains are the most complicated bits of kit to probably ever power an F1 car, and if the engine manufacturer is so woefully unprepared to give them at least a working unit less than a month before they're homologated, I think they'll be stinking up the place for the first few races. Heck, just the fact that Caterham was the only team to be able to use the drivetrain somewhat reliably speaks loads. It's not just Renault that needs to go back to the drawing board, it's Red Bull as well. If they come up with anything that can run full tilt in a month for the first race, it will probably be a very compromised design. If not, I'll be even more in awe of their technical prowess than I already am.

 

Anyway, I voted 5-3-5. Depending on the compromises they make, maybe they can eek out a few 4-7 places starting from Silverstone, but I think they'll count their blessings to finish a race in the top 10. By the end of the season, I'll be surprised if they haven't worked out most of the kinks.

 

I think they're in a genuinely dire situation, but seeing what they've been able to do these past few years, I'm prepared to be wrong. Only time will tell.

[Andrew Hope]

Both complete failure to win anything and utter dominance would be amusing for different reasons. I guess you could say that I don't care..

 

(•_•)

( •_•)>⌐■-■

(⌐■_■)

 

..Webber they win or lose.

[sopa]

It is a bit difficult to assess the situation if we haven't got even a vague idea, how fast this car could be. Though if they have way too many reliability issues, then even being very fast won't help them out in winning titles. Like the Renaults of early 80s or Brabham-BMW of 1984.

 

Also we don't know if Renault really is down on power which would cost Red Bull 1s per lap or their BHP is absolutely fine, just that they have a major reliability issue.

 

If the 20-week engine fix rumour by some insider guy is true, then obviously it is bye-bye for championship titles unless... yeah, unless the double points truly help them out. In 2009 McLaren started becoming a front-runner only from Hungary onwards, but by that time it was obviously way too late.

 

If RBR is struggling for 1/5th of the season (i.e early flyaway races), then return to winning ways from European season onwards with a reliable package, they still have a shot, esp with double points.

[study]

This is why I'm surprised no Merc or Ferrari team were allowed to turn up the wick on their powertrain.

 

How do they know they won't get similar issues when running at full power or at the very least I'd have thought they'd have wanted the data and heat readings.

Edited by study, 31 January 2014 - 21:45.

[FranDaMan]

There's always a niggling thought at the back of my mind that however bad it looks, they'll still turn up in Aus and stomp everyone. If anyone can turn round a bad situation in record time, it's RB.

And in any case and as eluded to by others - those double points are looming at the end of the season to help out any slow-starters.

[Bloggsworth]

Where's the "Hilarious" option?

Edited by Bloggsworth, 31 January 2014 - 21:50.

[JimiKart]

Seems like they're in a world of trouble, good thing there's no resource restrictions and they have a mountain of cash to throw at it, because of this they'll probably be fine.

[mclarennut]

 I think the bag of tricks is empty, but I guess once they have a good engine then the trick will start to come out again, but for now I think they are in trouble and will be playing the catch up game for half of the season. 

[bourbon]

They will be there or there abouts by Silverstone, like last year - or perhaps like 2009 which included the reliability problems.  I still think it is possible they will earn a podium here and there or at least bag good points, even with aggressive problems. 

 

I have never thought RBR would take the WCC due to the more experienced teammate pairings of Merc and Ferrari.  However, depends on how fasts Danny catches on.  But all bets for the WDC are still on of course.

 

That said, Everything that concerns RBR, good or bad F1 is always   around here, so it is hard to take comments seriously anymore.  However, they have admitted that they have a number of design and build issues to deal with, so we may indeed see a slow start.  I expect they'll improve as the season progresses, the only question is the starting point - 2009, 2012 or 2011? 

Edited by bourbon, 31 January 2014 - 22:13.

[swerved]

Cloudy, with a chance of meatballs, I voted 1, 1, and 2

 

I think the situation as its stands is serious, but they've beaten everything everyone has thrown at them for the past 4 years and i dont think they're ready to roll over and relinquish just yet, I know we can only guess but imo anyone who rules them out is being extremely short sighted, or hopeful, or both.

[bogi]

No king rules forever.

[Peter Perfect]

With the combined rumours of not just power train problems but cooling problems too I think they'll spend too much time at the start of the season fighting fires (literally) and lose the development race. Merc/Ferrari/McLaren(hopefully)/... won't stand still after the first few races patting themselves on the back. I just can't see them losing say 3 months development time and being able to fight back.

[MP422]

Bottom 5

[MP422]

It's funny when i read they have started behind before.... What's behind ? Maybe 2009 they were behind Brawn but that's it. Those other years they were contenders just not all out domination which they have been doing by the end of the year. 2010 saw them face unreliability but other then that they have always been on the leading edge since mid 2009.

[jonpollak]

Jp

[icecream_man]

Interesting that some think the problems have been exaggerated, I'm inclined to think the opposite. Ever since KERS was introduced they have had issues with it as a result of the excessively tight packaging and overheating/reliability issues, but because the car was so fast anyway they got away with it. This year the ERS system has been massively beefed up meaning it needs more cooling, and RB are cooking components within 1 lap of Jerez in winter, there seems to be a major lack of understanding of electrical/electronic cooling requirements to have got the calculations so drastically wrong. How can they possibly expect to complete a race distance in somewhere like Bahrain if they're going up in smoke after 1 lap with the ambient temp at 14 degrees or less ??!!

Thing is, this year an ERS failure will lose them 2-3s a lap so they simply won't get away with the sort of reliability problems they had in the past with the KERS let alone the more serious issues being experienced with the new systems. Newey never really seemed to get on top of their KERS problems so I see no reason why he's suddenly going to master it now, I don't know whether they're lacking the technical expertise in this area altogether, or whether it's a case of they have the expertise but Newey is ignoring it, either way it's a major issue and I think they're going to continue to have big problems....

[redbarron]

If you look at Ferrari and McLaren when they have started testing with an inherently bad car, it generally meant a tough year on the track (F2012 as a possible exception). The difference between the past cars and Red Bulls current issues, is that the other cars still did a hell of a lot of running in testing. I think Red Bulls situation is worse, especially this year when mileage in testing matters so much. The other manufacturers seem to have made great starts to the year, so its going to be very tough for Red Bull.

 

If the issues get sorted by Bahrain, then they will probably still be front runners, but if these issues are still around by the fly away races then it will take them the year to recoup.

[Bloggsworth]

A lack of battery power won't cost 2 or 3 seconds a lap, it will mean running out of fuel long before the finish line unless they run at about 10 seconds a lap slower carrying all that dead-weight while trying to go the distance.

[MrAerodynamicist]

The next two weeks are pretty vital for all of the Renault teams. If they can turn up at the first Bahrain test and pound out the miles, then they won't find themselves too far behind. If they happen to have an inherently good chassis/aero, they could still manage to be at the sharp end of the grid. However, if Bahrain is also marked with limited running, I think the Merc/Ferrari powered teams are going to have too much of a head start in optimising the cars for RBR and co to have much hope early on.

[DanardiF1]

Interesting that some think the problems have been exaggerated, I'm inclined to think the opposite. Ever since KERS was introduced they have had issues with it as a result of the excessively tight packaging and overheating/reliability issues, but because the car was so fast anyway they got away with it. This year the ERS system has been massively beefed up meaning it needs more cooling, and RB are cooking components within 1 lap of Jerez in winter, there seems to be a major lack of understanding of electrical/electronic cooling requirements to have got the calculations so drastically wrong. How can they possibly expect to complete a race distance in somewhere like Bahrain if they're going up in smoke after 1 lap with the ambient temp at 14 degrees or less ??!!

Thing is, this year an ERS failure will lose them 2-3s a lap so they simply won't get away with the sort of reliability problems they had in the past with the KERS let alone the more serious issues being experienced with the new systems. Newey never really seemed to get on top of their KERS problems so I see no reason why he's suddenly going to master it now, I don't know whether they're lacking the technical expertise in this area altogether, or whether it's a case of they have the expertise but Newey is ignoring it, either way it's a major issue and I think they're going to continue to have big problems....

 

I've been thinking this since the engine regs were announced. It's always been suggested that RBR ran a very small KERS unit on the last iteration of cars because for their aero needs the extra bulk wasn't worth the full power compliment... now they've got a system that 1. is built by Renault as a complete package that all it's teams use the same of, and 2. the power figures as a percentage of total performance is way higher than before. Basically they need a fully functioning ERS to even consider competing for points nevermind wins.

 

I know that most of us have our schadenfreude knives out for RBR given their recent successes, and perhaps it may be the case that it's actually something that can be fixed in a decent amount of time, but I think it's a big problem and perhaps it's because they worked on last year's car too long (though I don't why they needed to given the advantage they had), or Renault really just have made a dud. I think it's a combination of both... the car looks very slim compared to the only Renault car that is working (somewhat) right now which is the Caterham, and they haven't even got Toro Rosso to pinch solutions from as they can hardly get a stint out of their car.

 

For the 4-time reigning champions, this is a big problem. Whatever the lead time was on the car, they've come to this test expecting to get miles on the car. Over 4 days they didn't even crack 100km. That's terrible. As a small comparison, in 2011 when they were trying to get their notorious 'octopus' exhaust to work, McLaren still got 1,031.7 km of running under their belts at Jerez. Red Bull have less than a tenth of that WITH a completely new powertrain system to work on...

[MP422]

A lack of battery power won't cost 2 or 3 seconds a lap, it will mean running out of fuel long before the finish line unless they run at about 10 seconds a lap slower carrying all that dead-weight while trying to go the distance.

 

so you are saying 10 seconds a lap slower ? I don't understand your post. Do you understand how these new setups work ? 

[DanardiF1]

so you are saying 10 seconds a lap slower ? I don't understand your post. Do you understand how these new setups work ? 

 

What they mean is that if your ERS unit fails but you can still carry on, it's not just a case of the extra power that's lost is 2-3 seconds in laptime, it's also a big hit on your fuel economy, as you are relying solely on the ICE for propelling the car, which is going to result in even slower laptimes because the driver will have to turn the fuel way down to even make the finish.

Edited by DanardiF1, 01 February 2014 - 00:12.

[Disgrace]

Red Bull have all the money in the world to solve their installation issues, so that should be solved immediately. Newey will simply have to compromise aero, which is strike one.

 

I'm not convinced the engine issues can be overstated enough, as their press release concedes that:

 

1. They do not know what the root causes of the issues are.

2. Their dyno running is not correlating to the circuit.

 

How are they even supposed to run a serious diagnosis? Ferrari and Mercedes will be able to work to an extent on performance. That is a killer strike two. I'll stick my neck out and predict the four Renault teams will be the bottom four in the WCC by the European season.

Edited by Disgrace, 01 February 2014 - 00:43.

[DanardiF1]

Red Bull have all the money in the world to solve their installation issues, so that should be solved immediately. Newey will simply have to compromise aero, which is strike one.

 

I'm not convinced the engine issues can be overstated enough, as their press release concedes that:

 

1. They do not know what the root causes of the issues are

2. Their dyno running is not correlating to the circuit.

 

How are they even supposed to run a serious diagnosis? Ferrari and Mercedes will be able to work to an extent on performance. That is a killer strike two. I'll stick my neck out and predict the four Renault teams will be the bottom four in the WCC by the European season.

 

I don't even think that's sticking your neck out... I'm with you on that. Some have 'claimed' that Renault have told their teams they'll be lucky to get 250kms out of an engine... with only 5 to be used before penalties kick I wonder if we'll see our first grid penalty before Spain?

[Ali_G]

F1 is very lucky Honda is entering next year. This whole debacle, if it plays out as expected could seriously hurt Renaults position in F1. The board could easily pull the plug on their engine programme if the whole season goes down the drain for Renault teams.

[sennafan24]

If you look at Ferrari and McLaren when they have started testing with an inherently bad car, it generally meant a tough year on the track (F2012 as a possible exception). The difference between the past cars and Red Bulls current issues, is that the other cars still did a hell of a lot of running in testing. I think Red Bulls situation is worse, especially this year when mileage in testing matters so much. The other manufacturers seem to have made great starts to the year, so its going to be very tough for Red Bull.

 

If the issues get sorted by Bahrain, then they will probably still be front runners, but if these issues are still around by the fly away races then it will take them the year to recoup.

I pretty much agree with this 

[Thomas99]

We can't really say anything yet, the car itself may be deadly quick when it starts actually running. All we've seen them do is breaking down so far

 

having said that if they are overheating at Jerez they're going to not be in for a good time at Bahrain

[Thomas99]

If you look at Ferrari and McLaren when they have started testing with an inherently bad car, it generally meant a tough year on the track (F2012 as a possible exception). The difference between the past cars and Red Bulls current issues, is that the other cars still did a hell of a lot of running in testing. I think Red Bulls situation is worse, especially this year when mileage in testing matters so much. The other manufacturers seem to have made great starts to the year, so its going to be very tough for Red Bull.

 

If the issues get sorted by Bahrain, then they will probably still be front runners, but if these issues are still around by the fly away races then it will take them the year to recoup.

 

The difference for me was that the McLaren and Ferrari had fundamental pace problems. Being that their design at large was simply not fast. The Red Bull doesn't necessarily have pace problems, it has cooling problems.

 

The RB10 itself could be a very very fast car once they fix the overheating.

[Disgrace]

I don't even think that's sticking your neck out... I'm with you on that. Some have 'claimed' that Renault have told their teams they'll be lucky to get 250kms out of an engine... with only 5 to be used before penalties kick I wonder if we'll see our first grid penalty before Spain?

 

I think it is. Caterham managed 50 laps with the Renault today, suggesting the motor in the back of the Red Bull can do the same. If the packaging is the main inhibition to significant running, Red Bull have the resources to solve that very quickly as I mentioned.

[Jimisgod]

See McLaren 2004.

I agree with some other posters, the RBR will probably be moderately fast plagued with unreliability like it was in 09/10 and will be fortunate to finish 4th in the WCC.

I expect Magnussen to win before Dan.

[DanardiF1]

See McLaren 2004.

I agree with some other posters, the RBR will probably be moderately fast plagued with unreliability like it was in 09/10 and will be fortunate to finish 4th in the WCC.

I expect Magnussen to win before Dan.

 

How about Dan before Seb?

[MP422]

How about Dan before Seb?

 

Why not, he's a good qualifier and talented.

[DanardiF1]

Why not, he's a good qualifier and talented.

 

I agree... I'd like to see a fair fight between the pair as I really think Dan's got talent and that Seb may have had a little easy with an ageing Webber beside him, but it may initially be out of their hands if either or both cars go boom with much regularity.

[Pingu Pi]

People are forgetting the knock on effect of the chassis problems, even if it was that simple (though it's not, the Renault engine can't run at full power apparently and not for very long at that)

Changing the internal composition to create room, changes the aero completely. They'd need to learn and understand the newly developed chassis before they could consider adding parts on.

Any parts that were in development for Melbourne, you can say goodbye to them too.

Newey is a fantastic aero specialist, easily the best around as the last 4 years show, but he has a very fine margin when it comes to reliability, just look at all the kers problems (which now seem amplified due to the massive integration ERS now has within the V6).

They have an aero philosophy that is very apparent across the past 4 years, the cars have all had a similar look, that stood out from the rest of the field. This year again the car had that DNA, however to now have to compromise and change that for the new engine, well it's unexplored territory and a lot to learn throughout the season.

I think they're in for a tough year, I'm looking forward to seeing them truly have to get gritty and work for their points, because they've had it easy (due to their deserved brilliance and the others lack there of).

[sennafan24]

I agree... I'd like to see a fair fight between the pair as I really think Dan's got talent and that Seb may have had a little easy with an ageing Webber beside him, but it may initially be out of their hands if either or both cars go boom with much regularity.

I think Seb's race pace and consistency will be too much for Dan. Dan has a chance to shine in qualifying, but come race day I do not think he will finish ahead of Seb often.

 

Webber had more success in qualifying against Seb, than he did in race trim in 2013. In the latter stages Webber was pretty close to Seb in most qualifying sessions, but come race day he was a good few leagues away from Seb. To underline this Webber never finished ahead of Seb in 2013 when both men finished, and Seb still managed to finish ahead of Webber in the 2 weekends he was out-qualified!

 

D,R did show better race trim in 2013 than 2012, beating JEV 6-3 in races finished ahead when both finished, so I could be underrating him. But it is a tall ask.

[chumma]

Bleak 

[slideways]

I agree the car is car is probably fast. RBR can probably win a development race from their side (chances on them having 'blockers' by the next test anyone?), but the question mark is the power unit and so far it's not looking great. 

 

I have been missing engine failures in F1, and was looking forward to Honda's return next year but a kimiesque Vettel blowing up from the lead would be fun. 

[Atreiu]

It seems like McLaren with the MP4-18 and their subsequent start to 2004. That bad, maybe worse. Any other team would have hit the panic button, but I think they have enough depth and leadership to turn it around before the season is lost.