228 replies to this topic

[surbjits]

I think too many people who would like to see Red Bull struggle a bit for once are getting their hopes up. There are still 2 weeks of testing to go and Renault has time to come up with a better solution for their current problems. Brawn GP missed several weeks of testing in 2009. As long as Red Bull produced a solid car with great aero and mech grip, they can still top the timesheets next month. 

 

This is a different situation, entirely.
 

[Disgrace]

I think too many people who would like to see Red Bull struggle a bit for once are getting their hopes up. There are still 2 weeks of testing to go and Renault has time to come up with a better solution for their current problems. Brawn GP missed several weeks of testing in 2009. As long as Red Bull produced a solid car with great aero and mech grip, they can still top the timesheets next month. 

 

Perhaps, but this is possibly the only chance Red Bull will be knocked from dominance whilst their spending is uninhibited. I think there is some wishful thinking, for instance my prediction is somewhat wishful but at the same time, I assume Red Bull will be back to winning races before the end of the season. This is a unique situation, so I say let people have their day in the sun.

[Jvr]

With all respect Jvr, are you not going a bit ahead of yourself here?
I suppose to be able to make such a statement with any degree of certainty, one would need to know, which HW changes are required.
Two weeks is ample time, for quite a few HW changes.

Not every HW change has the same magnitude as needing a new crank shaft or engine block etc. - if this is the case, then I would agree with you, that 2 weeks is a rather tight time frame.
But on the other hand, two weeks in ample time - IMHO - to for example build a new / different loom in order to place some control(er) boxes slightly different &/or to design and manufacturer some heat &/or EMS shielding and internal ducting.
So, until more (reliable) informations about the nature and magnitude of their ( Renaults & RBR's) problems surface, me may don't need to jump to conclusions and trying to predict the future.

I know, that you seem to be in favor of the faulty crank shaft theories, bandied around in some parts of the Internet, and they may very well be true, but perhaps just keep an open mind, the problems could be less serve then this. May still require some HW changes, but doable in 2 weeks time.
I suppose we will see/learn this soon enough, come the Bahrain test, and then also have a second reference in form of the Lotus car.
This could/should shed some light, as to where the majority of the problems originate.

I simply think the performance issues with Renault powered teams cannot be corrected by moving two fuses in a fuse box and drilling a new cooling hole or taping a new duct. The magnitude of the problems is in my opinion just too much and Renault themselves admitted they have HW problems.

What I am used to after observing this kind of problems in engineering in my work life are followed by:
1. Analyse, locate and verify the root cause of the problem(s) in testing for each one of the potentially interrelated problems
2. Design a change that will correct the root cause
3. Make a prototype of a changed part or test in simulation (which is a problem if the original problem was not revealed on simulation)
4. Verify in real testing that root cause has been corrected by the new design.
5. Design and tool real part manufacturing in racing quality.
6. Manufacture new part.
7. QA that part was manufactured correctly
8. Assy of new engine.
9. Ship it to the destination
10. Assy to the car
11. go round the track to check did it work.

Two weeks? Good luck. You may get close to the step number 4.

Edited by Jvr, 05 February 2014 - 20:33.

[sennafan24]

This is a different situation, entirely.
 

Very true, but the point is that you cannot write off teams based on early testing.

 

I still think RB can develop and fix their issues, it may take a good 5 races, but I think they can win races and challenge in 2014.

[jjcale]

JVR....What if you had "unlimited resources" - not just money but also people to work round the clock - could you speed up the process... and would the speeding up be proportionate to the resources thrown at the problem.

 

 

... I only ask because I dont want to have to change my new sig before Australia

[Jvr]

JVR....What if you had "unlimited resources" - not just money but also people to work round the clock - could you speed up the process... and would the speeding up be proportionate to the resources thrown at the problem.


... I only ask because I dont want to have to change my new sig before Australia

Lol!

I also think TC3000 is correct that it all depends upon the real root cause and how complex the part to be changed is.

However, usually in engineering, if symptoms are bad, you also need badly a redesign. Now it depends what you need to redesign and manufacture. Let's say you need a new aerodynamical fairing surface. You cannot really make ten designers to make the design faster than one other than having two or three to continue where one left the surface before the one is hitting the bed. Even then you need mechanical designers who are accustomed to work like that and you need to reserve some time for the briefing at the change of the shifts.

Now to manufacture that part. You need the moldmakers and again you cannot really make the molding faster by throwing an army against that but having a team that can work in unison. Then the actual lamination again takes a few guys but the rest of your unlimited army can really make the coffee for the workers.

If you are not sure what will work, then the unlimited resources will help you to make unlimited amount of different options to test, but then you need unlimited amount of time to test what works and what does not. Not really worth the effort.

I suppose my rants originate from the sheer frustration about the number of the views where it is trusted that RBR and Renault will redesign and manufacture anything in the whole product in two weeks without any idea about the challenge, complexity and lead times really related.

I also acknowledge it is possible they can come up with the fixes before Bahrain that work, but I am sure they will be needing both design shortcuts as well a lot of luck to succeed in that.

Personally I would like both Renault and RBR (as well as other Renault customer teams) to come up to the season start with competitive designs. However, I think Jerez has proven they are a lot behind the learning curve when compared to Merc and Ferrari powered teams.

End of Rant.

Edited by Jvr, 05 February 2014 - 21:41.

[Ian G]

Well, if you consider Renault's press release on the matter a rumour...

OK,i didn't see it,just going on Tweets & comments from Journo's that claim to be in the know.

[oetzi]

It's not scientific, no. 

 

Then again, they might just get lucky. 

 

Not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility. 

 

There was a mega cult book around the 1960s by a professor called Edward de Bono - A Five Day Course In Thinking 

 

It demonstrated how we apply many different kinds of reasoning to solve problems, and trial and error can often play a large part. 

Very true, but a seriously limited number of things and time makes that a pretty tricky route.

[Jvr]

It's all good, we (at least I) will just wait and see (with interest) how the situation will develop.
I'm not saying that Renault (and RBR) have no problems, and this will very likely involve new HW, and not just some lines of code or a filter on a sensor signal.
I just wanted to point out, that not every HW change, has the same lead times, and that you can do quite a bit of HW changes in two weeks.
 
I'm not disagreeing with your list in general, but one thing to keep in mind is, that motor racing and F1 specifically is to an large extent a "prototype" race series.
With this I mean, you can't really compare it to any form of "industrial production", so due to the rather fast development cycle, you effectively end up racing some "prototype solutions", and me talk about quantities in the order of 10th not millions of parts.
Therefore your point 5 does not always apply on the same scale as it does for "serial industrial production", if you have your "fix" (new part) designed and being able to build a prototype for testing (either dyno or track) you are pretty much there as far as design goes (if the part works as intended). Then depending on what it is, you may just go and machine xxx more of it.
If it is a CNC-machined part, and you have the tool path anyway from yoru prototype, it's just a question of "pressing a button".
 
Yes, there are still parts, that require tooling, and if they really need to manufacturer a new crank, then they are up sh.... creek without a paddle - no doubt about it, I just wouldn't bet the farm on this, just yet.
Let's see how things look in Bahrain, and how many armaments both parties have made until then. 
Looks like a interesting season is shaping up, one way or the other.

I think we are in agreement in general. You have been pointing out exactly correct things which is appreciated much. There are HW problems and there are HW problems and solving them depends on what is needed to design and manufacture the part.

As I said in other comment, my frustration was mainly originated from some other poster's views, where they simply were believing RBR and Renault are capable of completely redesigning and manufacturing anything before Bahrain and were making the blogger's view of possible 20 week recovery leadtime tantamount of finding life on Mars.

Let's indeed wait for Bahrain or any other piece of news before that and see where the teams are standing in reliability and performance.

[oetzi]

for "blibbering idiots." Although as has already been explained, RBR weren't blibbering

Bet they are now 

[oetzi]

Lol!

I also think TC3000 is correct that it all depends upon the real root cause and how complex the part to be changed is.

However, usually in engineering, if symptoms are bad, you also need badly a redesign. Now it depends what you need to redesign and manufacture. Let's say you need a new aerodynamical fairing surface. You cannot really make ten designers to make the design faster than one other than having two or three to continue where one left the surface before the one is hitting the bed. Even then you need mechanical designers who are accustomed to work like that and you need to reserve some time for the briefing at the change of the shifts.

Now to manufacture that part. You need the moldmakers and again you cannot really make the molding faster by throwing an army against that but having a team that can work in unison. Then the actual lamination again takes a few guys but the rest of your unlimited army can really make the coffee for the workers.

If you are not sure what will work, then the unlimited resources will help you to make unlimited amount of different options to test, but then you need unlimited amount of time to test what works and what does not. Not really worth the effort.

I suppose my rants originate from the sheer frustration about the number of the views where it is trusted that RBR and Renault will redesign and manufacture anything in the whole product in two weeks without any idea about the challenge, complexity and lead times really related.

I also acknowledge it is possible they can come up with the fixes before Bahrain that work, but I am sure they will be needing both design shortcuts as well a lot of luck to succeed in that.

Personally I would like both Renault and RBR (as well as other Renault customer teams) to come up to the season start with competitive designs. However, I think Jerez has proven they are a lot behind the learning curve when compared to Merc and Ferrari powered teams.

End of Rant.

People would do well to read this properly. Basic good sense.

[Jvr]

I actually realized Renault problems could relate to the fact Remi Taffin confirmed that the Renault PU is designed to not fire on all cylinders...

Edited by Jvr, 05 February 2014 - 23:37.

[oetzi]

Surely all the manufacturers will have looked at that? It's not rocket science.

 

Although maybe they decided not to.

 

Anyway, if that was the problem, how did Caterham get in more laps than RB an STR combined?

 

Or were they poor enough to be paid to run 1990s sidepods?

[fabr68]

I actually realized Renault problems could relate to the fact Remi Taffin confirmed that the Renault PU is designed to not fire on all cylinders...

 

Fuel economy and traction control.  

[chrcol]

I think its overhyped, redbull be 1st WCC/WDC again.

[stairpotato]

I think a lot of people are missing the point here.  You can't see Red Bull in isolation of their competitors. Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren etc are currently working on developments off the back of a successful test.  You have to assume that there will be steps forward in terms of performance in each of the next two tests...

 

...Red Bull will need to develop their car at a significantly faster rate than the other teams just to catch up.  At the moment they are focussing on being able to string laps together - while the other teams can focus attention on performance.

 

Put simply - by the time Red Bull get on top of the car - they will have lost weeks of development time - whilst the other teams are spending those weeks productively.  I can't see them recovering from that in a way that will see them challenging for anything other than the top of the midfield. 

[Rybo]

I think a lot of people are missing the point here.  You can't see Red Bull in isolation of their competitors. Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren etc are currently working on developments off the back of a successful test.  You have to assume that there will be steps forward in terms of performance in each of the next two tests...
 
...Red Bull will need to develop their car at a significantly faster rate than the other teams just to catch up.  At the moment they are focussing on being able to string laps together - while the other teams can focus attention on performance.
 
Put simply - by the time Red Bull get on top of the car - they will have lost weeks of development time - whilst the other teams are spending those weeks productively.  I can't see them recovering from that in a way that will see them challenging for anything other than the top of the midfield.

This. While Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes can pound around lap after lap perfecting their upgrade packages. Red Bull will desperately be hoping that they found a solution to their woes. Of course no one is saying that anyone else with have a set back, but they are very much on the back foot.

[wonk123]

JVR....What if you had "unlimited resources" - not just money but also people to work round the clock - could you speed up the process... and would the speeding up be proportionate to the resources thrown at the problem.

 

 

... I only ask because I dont want to have to change my new sig before Australia

It is amazing what can be done with even limited resources these days with cnc and rapid prototyping equipment. I have worked in a small race shop where friday afternoon of practice everyone thinks it is time to give up, but the pizzas come out and we program the cnc's and the parts are finished at 2am, then the boys bolt it all back together: Pole Saturday, Win Sunday. I have experienced that exact scenario about 6 times, with only 3 or four guys working.

The dedication and work ethic of most people in F1 has to be seen to be believed, combine that with the vast amount or resources and experience and almost anything is possible.

Crankshaft-smankshaft, make some new forgings or machine some billets, all too easy!  The only way this will take 20 weeks is if they have no clue as to what is happening or why!

[study]

Is this correct?

 

 

 

 

toleman fan Reply:
February 8th, 2014 at 11:57 am

OK, James. Friday has come and gone. What happened?

[Reply]

James Allen Reply:
February 8th, 2014 at 11:04 pm

They managed one lap

 

http://www.jamesalle...-powered-teams/

[Richard T]

Is this correct?




toleman fan Reply:
February 8th, 2014 at 11:57 am
OK, James. Friday has come and gone. What happened?
[Reply]

James Allen Reply:
February 8th, 2014 at 11:04 pm
They managed one lap

http://www.jamesalle...-powered-teams/

Wow...

[Hanzo]

"Estimates of how far Renault are behind range from two months to six months"

 

 

[P0inters]

"Estimates of how far Renault are behind range from two months to six months"

 

 

Where's that coming from ?

[showtime]

Where's that coming from ?

"Journalism" in preseason mode.

[Hanzo]

Where's that coming from ?

 

From the James Allen article posted above: http://www.jamesalle...-powered-teams/

[Gorma]

"Estimates of how far Renault are behind range from two months to six months"

 

 

At which point did an estimate start to mean "a number pulled out of your ass"?

[oetzi]

Isn't that the colloquial meaning of 'estimate'?

[lbennie]

At which point did an estimate start to mean "a number pulled out of your ass"?

 

They already have it sorted, so yes, "pulled out of your ass" would apply here. 

[oetzi]

Who already has what sorted?

[Owen]

I reckon they'll get much more laps in at the next test.

It wouldn't surprise me if the media then go from talking of a 'crisis' to then swing the opposite way and say they are 'back' and they will be installed as favourites again!

The reality is probably that they are somewhere in between those two ends of the spectrum.