Whoever emerges as the dark horse for the season will do so for two reasons beyond their own skills: car performance and reliability.
I’d qualify a ‘dark horse’ performance as more than just a one off success – a la Force India in 2009, Williams in 2012. They need to consistently perform at levels we’d consider above and beyond their normal levels.
The experienced Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull drivers can be immediately discounted counted out as possible ‘dark horses’, so that eliminates Alonso, Kimi, Jenson, Hamilton, Rosberg and Vettel.
I think its pretty far fetched to think that the smallest teams – Torro Rosso, Caterham, Marussia – could have the necessary combination of car performance and reliability, as well as developmental resources, to consistently surprise. I think they might get lucky in a race or two this year, but won’t consistently surprise. So, that rules out Ericsson, Kobayashi, Chilton, Bianchi, Vergne and Kyvat.
This leaves, for me at least, the mid-field runners of Sauber, Force India, Williams and Lotus and their drivers, as well as Magnussen and Ricciardo in the top teams as possible surprises.
I don’t think Ricciardo will do that well against Vettel. Magnussen I know less about and his junior record is very solid, so he could surprise. Chalk him up as a possibility.
Sauber and Force India are solid mid-field runners, but I don’t feel that they have the capability to consistently perform over a season. Force India has, I feel, the stronger driver line up, but I can’t seen either team scoring much beyond the occasional podium. Nothing likely here.
Lotus is capable of building a car that can win races, or at least consistently finish on the podium. This means that they have the distinct possibility of surprising their more fancied competition on a regular basis. While both of their drivers have speed, my gut feeling is that Grosjean, who has partnered Kimi and Alonso, has matured more and is a more consistent performer. If he has the car under him, I would not be surprised to see Grosejean collect his first win this year and really threaten in many races.
My other suspicion is that the Massa/Williams combination could surprise. Williams is a team with a strong engineering base, a lot of experience and some very good people entering the right positions. In Massa, it has a driver that has learned from the best in the business and experienced something of a renaissance over the second half of the previous season. They are another possibility.
So my potential dark horses for 2014 would be:
Williams with Massa
Lotus with Grosjean.
McLaren with Magnussen
Edited by EarnardBeccelstone, 18 February 2014 - 02:37.