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Who or what is the dark horse for 2014?


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#1 Owen

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 09:07

Which driver or team could spring a surprise this year and put in a giant killing performance? Will this next test in Bahrain give us any hints?

Your inside tips for success appreciated ...

 

 

A dark horse is a little-known person or thing that emerges to prominence, especially in a competition of some sort[1] or a contestant that seems unlikely to succeed.

 



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#2 Anderis

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 09:15

I think anybody could be a dark horse, as it often happens after big rule changes.



#3 JohnDoe

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 09:30

Force India - Hulkenberg



#4 Shiroo

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 09:37

I would go with Force India, Williams and Lotus.



#5 vista

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 09:54

Altough not quite a dark horse I think Magnussen could surprise. The Jerez test was obviously mildly impressive but he is working very hard in the factory every day with both the simulator and his fitness. I believe he lives in Woking. His working ethic is impressive and it reminds a bit like vettel. On track his feedback has also been good and he has natural speed.

Consistency and race craft are unknowns to me but we will know soon enough. I am very excited to see the Magnussen vs. button battle.

#6 Maustinsj

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 09:59

There is a dark horse on Vista's avatar.

 

Not sure if that's helpful or not.  :cat:



#7 danmills

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 10:13

Not specifically a dark horse, but a non-expected 'killer' in Nico Rosberg may emerge.



#8 Markn93

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 10:53

I think Ricciardo has a chance.  Certainly to give Vettel a run for his money and perhaps a shot at a WDC if the car is there. Didn't want to say Lotus as it's well documented and almost clichéd to call them the dark horse being the no. 4 team in recent years. 



#9 SpeedRacer`

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 10:55

I would say Williams and Magnussen, expecting big things from him



#10 SealTheDiffuser

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 10:58

with a working Renault engine my complete dark horse list:

 

Magnu'ssen (not a real dark horse, he will soundly beat Button), Bottas, Maldonado, Hülkenberg, Kvyat, maybe Massa will shine like some anticipate, but I doubt it, and when he does its only down to his weight advantage... :smoking:



#11 BullHead

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 11:17

The Force India car and driver pairing.

Kevin Magnussen

Kvyat in the Toro Rosso



#12 CoolBreeze

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 11:36

Force India. 



#13 Seanspeed

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 11:39

Should probably ask this question after the next, or even better, the last round of testing.

EDIT: I'm still unclear where this fuss over Magnussen is coming from.

Edited by Seanspeed, 17 February 2014 - 11:41.


#14 Jon83

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 11:40

Williams sprung to mind at first but in reality, anything is guesswork. I find it hard to say X will be a dark horse as right now, I have no idea how things are going to play out. The established front runners of the last years don't exist in my mind right now, if you know what I mean.

 

So many TV pundits have assumed that Mercedes will have the best car and best engine. I presume they base this on Lewis Hamilton leaving McLaren at the end of 2012 with 2014 noted as a key reason for the move. But I have no reason to think at this stage that Mercedes holds an advantage over Ferrari, McLaren or a few of the others.

 

The comments above are a little off-topic (apologies) but I have found it a little annoying that Mercedes have been considered the best before a lap in testing was even complete.



#15 vista

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 12:43

Should probably ask this question after the next, or even better, the last round of testing.EDIT: I'm still unclear where this fuss over Magnussen is coming from.


Last time mclaren hired a rookie it was Hamilton.. They have information from various tests regarding the speed and feedback from Magnussen. He has been a mclaren development driver for years. He won wsr.3.5 with a fairly large gap. He mildly impressed in Jerez although he did made a few mistakes but in general he made a positive impression to everyone even though 'times means nothing'. He said in a interview to a Danish newspaper that when the team put a low amount of fuel in his car for the next run, he knew what was expected of him.

To me, he seems much more promising than Perez did last year; especially because they know him from inside. And Perez wasn't that much slower than button.

Of course, we don't know how it will turn out. But a rookie driver in a top team is always an exciting prospect. He really earned his way to this seat and he has a fairly impressive track record.

#16 Imateria

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 13:13

Far too early to be talking about Dark Horses and favorites at this point I feel.



#17 eronrules

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 13:14

pastor maldonado might trump Gro Gro.

 

lotus car has always been the dark horse for deus knows how long.

 

williams will be the blue horse. 


Edited by eronrules, 17 February 2014 - 13:15.


#18 sopa

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 13:15

So looking at the past seasons, who have been the dark horses to somewhat unexpectedly threaten the front?

 

2012 - Raikkonen & Lotus

2009 - Brawn and Red Bull teams

2008 - Kubica and BMW Sauber

2007 - Hamilton

2004 - Button

1999 - Irvine and Frentzen

 

In other seasons there was no major surprise/dark horse among frontrunners.

 

2003 and 2005 are up to definition.

 

Raikkonen and Montoya emerged as title threats in 2003, but at the time they were expected to be the next big things after Schumi anyway. So they were going to be up there any time Ferrari lost ground.

Alonso in 2005. I think Renault was coming along well into turning a top team.

 

So based on this evidence, can we realistically expect anyone to threaten/beat the established WDCs and Rosberg in 2014? 

Magnussen may have a rather remote chance of doing anything we saw in 2007.

Ricciardo is an option, but if the RBR is very good, he is expected to be somewhere up there anyway like Webber was in 2009-2013. What would make Ric a dark horse is if he genuinely gives Vettel a run for his money, because not many expect that.

 

Anyone else would bank on some midfield teams (Force India, Williams, et al), outdeveloping front-runners, which is hard to see. 2009 was a unique case and even based on that Jerez test it is hard to see this coming to fruition again.

 

For Lotus it is a shame there are rule changes and they have big financial issues, because without these if they had some genuine continuity in every form into 2014, I'd think many would label Grosjean as a dark horse on the back of late 2013 form.


Edited by sopa, 17 February 2014 - 13:16.


#19 Seanspeed

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 13:27

Last time mclaren hired a rookie it was Hamilton.. They have information from various tests regarding the speed and feedback from Magnussen. He has been a mclaren development driver for years. He won wsr.3.5 with a fairly large gap. He mildly impressed in Jerez although he did made a few mistakes but in general he made a positive impression to everyone even though 'times means nothing'. He said in a interview to a Danish newspaper that when the team put a low amount of fuel in his car for the next run, he knew what was expected of him.

To me, he seems much more promising than Perez did last year; especially because they know him from inside. And Perez wasn't that much slower than button.

Of course, we don't know how it will turn out. But a rookie driver in a top team is always an exciting prospect. He really earned his way to this seat and he has a fairly impressive track record.

It will be exciting to see how he does of course, but I've noticed that most of this hype has come after he topped the testing day.

I have no idea how he'll do. His junior record is pretty good, but nothing to be wow'd by. Lots of years in top teams, yet only one title that came in his 2nd year in WSBR(admittedly against good competition, though). I just think some people cant help but get overexcited about testing results sometimes.

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#20 vista

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 14:16

It will be exciting to see how he does of course, but I've noticed that most of this hype has come after he topped the testing day.

I have no idea how he'll do. His junior record is pretty good, but nothing to be wow'd by. Lots of years in top teams, yet only one title that came in his 2nd year in WSBR(admittedly against good competition, though). I just think some people cant help but get overexcited about testing results sometimes.


Agreed. Many people and media put too much emphasis on testing times which is quite natural. But regardless of Jerez, I think he is a dark horse for 2014.

#21 Dunc

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 14:26

I'm not sure Magnussen is a dark horse exactly but I do expect him to get some good results, maybe even a win.

 

I think Bottas and Massa will surprise as will (expecting the haters to come) Perez, who I think will edge it over the Hulk and make a bid for the front.



#22 Buttoneer

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 15:30

I think that for a team or driver to be a 'dark horse' then they will need to be doing particularly well against expectation or the established norm.  That means because the new regs are so wide ranging and different, there is no expected norm against which they could be judged, or rather, the basis of the judgement will need to be pretty superficial.

 

I can only really look at budgets which means Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes ought to lock out the top four WCC places between them.  Anyone who does better will be a nice surprise.  I would like it to be Massa in a Williams for 'Fernando is faster than you's sake, and Hulkenberg for 'you should have picked me' sake, but it's all wishful thinking.  We'll have a better view of things after the next test,



#23 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 17:18

Massa in the Williams. I expect him to give the Lotus drivers a good run for their money and perhaps finish 9th in the championship.



#24 RAGE12463

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 17:23

Max Chilton 2014!

 

 

 

to beat Marcus Ericcson


Edited by RAGE12463, 17 February 2014 - 17:24.


#25 emmanuelrubi

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 17:25

To be a dark horse in F1 you need a good budget (Red Bull) or a mastermind (Brawn GP) I see the top 4 teams dominating this year mostly Merc AMG and Ferrari, Probably a set of nice surprises by Force India line up but nothing to be particularly amazed of, Lotus don't think so, they don't have a health financial situation and a lot of his staff has leave them if they want to be a competitive dark horse they need to stay developing their car during at least half the season, so my point here is that the dark horse will be found in the 5th place in the WDC could be Williams, Force India or Lotus.



#26 olliek88

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 17:38

The Force India car and driver pairing.

Kevin Magnussen

Kvyat in the Toro Rosso

 

You stole my idea.   ;)

 

Kvyat especially so IMHO.



#27 RockBrocaine

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 17:46

Caterham and Koba. They'll have the last laugh when their nose emerges as next big technical development. Much to our suprise, the other teams will have a hard time copying it. Only because they don't have humungous side pods orginally factored in their designs. You wait and see...

_72578945_caterhamafp.jpg

 



#28 Kingshark

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 21:46

I would say that most seasons have had at least one dark horse (a team, which surprisingly threatened the front);

 

2001 - BMW Williams

 

2003 - Renault

2004 - BAR Honda

2005 - Toyota

 

2007 - BMW

2010 - Renault

2012 - Lotus

 

For 2014, I am going to guess either Williams or Force India. Both have Mercedes engines and quite a good drivers' line-up.


Edited by Kingshark, 17 February 2014 - 21:46.


#29 TomNokoe

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 21:51

Honestly think Bottas could win the championship.

#30 ElDictatore

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 22:01

Doesn't trying to guess the dark horse before the first race kinda defeat the purpose of a dark horse?



#31 V8 Fireworks

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 22:12

Williams-Mercedes !!!

 

Not backmarkers anymore IMO...



#32 jjcale

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Posted 17 February 2014 - 22:15

No dark horse this year .... 



#33 charly0418

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 00:28

KVYAT!

 

(I love pronouncing and shouting his name)



#34 sennafan24

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 00:42

Honestly think Bottas could win the championship.

I am not 100% sold on Bottas. In races last year, Pastor beat him 9-5 when both finished. Bottas did pull out the more notable performances out of the Williams, and did win the qualifying battle, but during races he did seem to struggle in relation to Pastor.

 

I would say Williams is a dark horse, as is Force India. I might speculate that Hulk is the biggest dark horse out of the 4 drivers who belong to those 2 teams. On current form, Bottas is unproven, Perez could not cut it with an elite driver in 2013, and Massa has just coming off being a number 2 driver for 4 years (and is aging)

 

You could argue Hulk is unproven, but then again he has not shown any real weaknesses (at least lately) whilst the rest have.

 

All depends on how Renault's problems develop. D.R could be a dark horse is qualifying, if he got multiple pole positions I would not shocked, if he beat Seb in race trim though I would be amazed. Rosberg is a dark horse according to the bookies, as I said in another thread he was something like 16-1 with some bookmakers to be WDC, I think those odds are more than generous.

 

McLaren are no longer dark horses, as people are now giving them a decent chance, and Magnum Kev is being hyped already.. Same with Lewis. Vettel will never be a dark horse, because of who he is, same rule applies to Alonso/Kimi.



#35 MikeV1987

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 00:47

Bottas & Williams, he's quick and he can race wheel to wheel very well, all he needs is a good car.


Edited by MikeV1987, 18 February 2014 - 00:49.


#36 Spillage

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 00:55

I think anybody could be a dark horse, as it often happens after big rule changes.

This  :up:

 

At this stage they're all potential dark horses except for the favourites, who seem to be Mercedes, Mclaren and Ferrari - since they can't really be dark horses. It's almost impossible to predict which teams are going to fair well at this stage, but I think Maldonado might just have the better of Grosjean and Perez to be better than people are expecting, although that to be rather masked by his having such a high-quality teammate. 



#37 bourbon

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:10

daniil



#38 Jimisgod

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:30

Who:

 

Magnussen, Hulkenberg, Bottas.

 

What:

 

Force India & Williams. McLaren just had an unnaturally poor 2013 so they aren't really dark horses.



#39 EarnardBeccelstone

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:36

Whoever emerges as the dark horse for the season will do so for two reasons beyond their own skills: car performance and reliability.

 

I’d qualify a ‘dark horse’ performance as more than just a one off success – a la Force India in 2009, Williams in 2012. They need to consistently perform at levels we’d consider above and beyond their normal levels.

 

The experienced Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull drivers can be immediately discounted counted out as possible ‘dark horses’, so that eliminates Alonso, Kimi, Jenson, Hamilton, Rosberg and Vettel.

 

I think its pretty far fetched to think that the smallest teams – Torro Rosso, Caterham, Marussia – could have the necessary combination of car performance and reliability, as well as developmental resources, to consistently surprise. I think they might get lucky in a race or two this year, but won’t consistently surprise. So, that rules out Ericsson, Kobayashi, Chilton, Bianchi, Vergne and Kyvat.

 

This leaves, for me at least, the mid-field runners of Sauber, Force India, Williams and Lotus and their drivers, as well as Magnussen and Ricciardo in the top teams as possible surprises.

 

I don’t think Ricciardo will do that well against Vettel. Magnussen I know less about and his junior record is very solid, so he could surprise. Chalk him up as a possibility.

 

Sauber and Force India are solid mid-field runners, but I don’t feel that they have the capability to consistently perform over a season. Force India has, I feel, the stronger driver line up, but I can’t seen either team scoring much beyond the occasional podium. Nothing likely here.

 

Lotus is capable of building a car that can win races, or at least consistently finish on the podium. This means that they have the distinct possibility of surprising their more fancied competition on a regular basis. While both of their drivers have speed, my gut feeling is that Grosjean, who has partnered Kimi and Alonso, has matured more and is a more consistent performer. If he has the car under him, I would not be surprised to see Grosejean collect his first win this year and really threaten in many races.

 

My other suspicion is that the Massa/Williams combination could surprise. Williams is a team with a strong engineering base, a lot of experience and some very good people entering the right positions. In Massa, it has a driver that has learned from the best in the business and experienced something of a renaissance over the second half of the previous season. They are another possibility.

 

So my potential dark horses for 2014 would be:

Williams with Massa

Lotus with Grosjean.

McLaren with Magnussen


Edited by EarnardBeccelstone, 18 February 2014 - 02:37.


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#40 boldhakka

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 05:36

EDIT: I'm still unclear where this fuss over Magnussen is coming from.

 

A good chunk of that is because people like his name. 



#41 george1981

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:11

I'd say Magnussen. He's got the speed and the attitude to do well. The McLaren looks to be a very good car. I wouldn't be surprised if Magnussen is in the title challenge this year.



#42 sopa

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 08:57

Realistically I think McLaren + Button sound a bit of a dark horse. I know everyone talks about Magnussen and that McLaren had an "unnaturally" poor 2013, but how many people REALLY think Button would be going for the WDC this year? Or that the "non-works" McLaren is really going to challenge now? Not many. All the talk is about Vettel, Hamilton, Alonso, perhaps Rosberg and Raikkonen as well, and the three factory teams with works engines. In predictions standings Button isn't really put higher than 6th or 7th, and higher only if people believe Mercedes has such a good engine they'd beat Ferrari and Red Bull.

 

If McLaren hit the ground running like Brawn did in 2009, Button could be the dark horse. Well, for me he would be a dark horse anyway, because a fair few other drivers are expected to have a better shot at the title.


Edited by sopa, 18 February 2014 - 09:00.


#43 Brandz07

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 09:01

Kvyat.

 

Vergne will not have a happy year.



#44 Rinehart

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 09:11

I think Magnussen, Rosberg and Massa could all impress this year.



#45 charly0418

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 09:24

I'm dissapointed people are calling McLaren a darkhorse. Like, we all know they're gonna be good



#46 Jimisgod

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 13:24

Should probably ask this question after the next, or even better, the last round of testing.

EDIT: I'm still unclear where this fuss over Magnussen is coming from.

 

1. He's at McLaren.

2. The 2014 McLaren looks fast.

3. People expect another Hamilton-like performance because Kevin is the first McLaren junior given a chance since Lewis.



#47 Rinehart

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 13:35

I'm still unclear where this fuss over Magnussen is coming from.

 

 

It will be exciting to see how he does of course, but I've noticed that most of this hype has come after he topped the testing day.
 

 

Hopefully not, but your second comment looks designed to insult those who think Magnum might be quite good. 

 

My rationale is simple. McLaren dropped Perez for him. Given the competitive nature of F1 and the information McLaren has at its disposal, I think this alone speaks volumes. 


Edited by Rinehart, 18 February 2014 - 13:36.


#48 TheUltimateWorrier

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 13:55

A good chunk of that is because people like his name. 

 

And bloody Nordic noir!



#49 Seanspeed

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 14:58

Hopefully not, but your second comment looks designed to insult those who think Magnum might be quite good. 
 
My rationale is simple. McLaren dropped Perez for him. Given the competitive nature of F1 and the information McLaren has at its disposal, I think this alone speaks volumes.

I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. I couldn't make it anymore clear who I was talking about. If you're not one of them, I'm not sure what you're bothered about.

And yes, McLaren dropped Perez for a guy that was in the McLaren development program and had basically gone as high as he could in the junior categories. It wasn't actually much of a shock and Perez is hardly some irreplaceable superstar.

Edited by Seanspeed, 18 February 2014 - 15:00.


#50 Atreiu

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 15:10

Ferrari.

 

Everyone is going on about Mercedes apparent good start and Renault/Red Bull's tragic start. While Ferrari has been totally forgotten in most conversations and discussions.

 

It just about the perfect scenario for them to come out gunning and suddenly leap to a good start to the season.