135 replies to this topic

[RealRacing]

Reliability is looking bleak at the start of this season. Could the 2014 Australian GP be the one with the most cars not finishing? Will F1 fans witness just another testing session instead of a race at Melbourne? If there are a lot of reliability-related abandonments, will FIA allow more testing before the next GP? How many cars do you think will finish?

Edited by RealRacing, 21 February 2014 - 13:05.

[PayasYouRace]

I'm thinking 8 or less. There'll probably be a few eliminated at T1 as usual. Reliability will be pretty poor, but it's a tough track anyway. Malaysia will probably feature more finishers whatever happens.

 

Put it this way, not all the retirements will be reliability related.

Edited by PayasYouRace, 21 February 2014 - 13:10.

[chrcol]

Whos brainwave was it to reduce engines per year whilst introducing new more complex ones?

[OO7]

One, if we include the safety car.

[Disgrace]

If Renault's problems continue into Australia as expected, I wonder whether Ferrari and Mercedes will be able to turn their engines down more than anticipated. Obviously they're still competing with each other, but it could bolster the number of finishers.

[RealRacing]

Whos brainwave was it to reduce engines per year whilst introducing new more complex ones?

And not allowing more testing given the new regs...

[Massa]

No need to overreacting after 7 days of TESTING...

[Massa]

And not allowing more testing given the new regs...

 

This.

[RealRacing]

One, if we include the safety car.

You mean SC+1 or just the safety car?

[HuddersfieldTerrier1986]

Don't think anyone is overreacting. Even before testing, Horner said he could see Australia potentially having a retirement rate of 50% or more. First race of the season, first race of the new regs, not uncommon to have cars retiring at the start or crashing through the race, obvious reliability problems. My gut feeling, for what it's not worth haha, is we'll see 4-6 cars crashing and at least another 4-6 retiring with unreliability (or running out of fuel). It's certainly not impossible that the first race could be a case of if you finish, you'll be guaranteed to get points, and I'd say that's not completely unrealistic to be honest.

[P0inters]

Don't think anyone is overreacting. Even before testing, Horner said he could see Australia potentially having a retirement rate of 50% or more. First race of the season, first race of the new regs, not uncommon to have cars retiring at the start or crashing through the race, obvious reliability problems. My gut feeling, for what it's not worth haha, is we'll see 4-6 cars crashing and at least another 4-6 retiring with unreliability (or running out of fuel). It's certainly not impossible that the first race could be a case of if you finish, you'll be guaranteed to get points, and I'd say that's not completely unrealistic to be honest.

Caterhams first points then.  

[Szoelloe]

16-22, definitely, with all the drama on the 7th day of testing. All the teams - and renault too - will get their xxxt together for the start of the season.

[Slackbladder]

No need to overreacting after 7 days of TESTING...

 

Theres only 5 days of testing left.....

[Massa_f1]

I reckon between 10 -12 finishers in the first race. We may well also see cars rejoining the race several laps down after several laps in the pits to fix a problem.

[Nemo1965]

Another good question: how many cars will finish the race on the same lap?

 

I think that Renault, for example, if things stay as they are now, will def. be able to finish the race... if they choose not to compete with Mercedes and Ferrari. Suppose we are halfway the race... 14 cars still in the race, amongst which 2 Marussia's and 2 Caterhams. Red Bull and Renault will just up the tempo and boost enough to stay ahead of the Marussia's and Caterhams. But will finish a lap down on the winners and in the points.

 

I don't think the Renault-teams will be that stupid that they going to blow up their engines just to keep up appearances...

[RealRacing]

...We may well also see cars rejoining the race several laps down after several laps in the pits to fix a problem.

So, basically a glorified test date...

[Disgrace]

Another good question: how many cars will finish the race on the same lap?

 

I think that Renault, for example, if things stay as they are now, will def. be able to finish the race... if they choose not to compete with Mercedes and Ferrari. Suppose we are halfway the race... 14 cars still in the race, amongst which 2 Marussia's and 2 Caterhams. Red Bull and Renault will just up the tempo and boost enough to stay ahead of the Marussia's and Caterhams. But will finish a lap down on the winners and in the points.

 

I don't think the Renault-teams will be that stupid that they going to blow up their engines just to keep up appearances...

 

Totally agree, the first race at least could be a race to the bottom in terms of how much performance they can afford to leave on the table if it improves their chances of finishing. Australia is hardly representative of the rest of season at the best of times.

[mclarennut]

I can see the safety car winning both titles this year...

[alfa1]

So, basically a glorified test date...

 

Might just be that.

On sunday afternoon, see how many laps you can do in the 2 hours.

[Tenmantaylor]

Maybe not the most exciting prospect but I think it would be great to see the smaller teams getting points for coming up with a more reliable solution to the new regs than the big boys.

[apoka]

I can see the safety car winning both titles this year...

 

I can see it pulling away from Renault cars on straights.

 

(Yes, I know this is not realistic as there won't be a Renault car directly behind the SC.)

[Youichi]

Maybe not the most exciting prospect but I think it would be great to see the smaller teams getting points for coming up with a more reliable solution to the new regs than the big boys.

 

I agree, everyone remembers Mark Webber getting 5th on his debut for Minardi, that was a race of attrition, with only 7 finishers.

 

And Pedro DeLaRosa was classified 8th, 5 laps down after a lengthy stop to fix an engine problem......this could easy happen again this year.

[DutchQuicksilver]

I'm more curious about the gaps between each engine. Multiple Renault powered drivers have said they're no match for Mercedes and Ferrari. We could be looking at the Renault powered teams being 2-3 seconds off the pace. F1 being as it is these days, the last thing we need is such a gap between manufacturers.

[Bloggsworth]

I am betting that this is the race in which Chilton gets his first Championship points...

[RealRacing]

F1 being as it is these days, the last thing we need is such a gap between manufacturers.

They will find a way to try to make it interesting. Since apparently the SC periods will be long ("untouchable" cars due to ERS electrocution danger ) and frequent, they'll allow the trailing cars to unlap themselves even if more than 1 lap down. And since the first, hmmm let's say 4 GPs, are at the beginning of the year and more or less still testing dates, why not make them count half the points?  They could also give the least-ugly car finishing in the top 10 additional points and subtract points if the car is ugly. Intra-supplier championship maybe? The Flavio Cup for The Renault engine with the least DNFs, with finishes in Arabian countries counting double (when paying of course)...?

 

It's sprinkler time!

[Jon83]

Caterhams first points then.  

 

Great opportunity for them and Marussia potentially but I'm still expecting most to finish.

[stairpotato]

My best guess is - none of the Renault powered cars and a couple of dropouts from the remaining teams.  I suspect no one will push massively hard - preferring to finish in ANY position than not finish at all...

[Jon83]

My best guess is - none of the Renault powered cars and a couple of dropouts from the remaining teams.  I suspect no one will push massively hard - preferring to finish in ANY position than not finish at all...

 

Yep, it could be like Monaco 2013 (for different reasons, of course) with cars strolling round the track.

[lyubo]

I don't think Australian gp wll be so dramatic as everybody says.

[jrg19]

The top 10 will consist of 8 mercedes powered cars. 

[ConsiderAndGo]

Something similar to that of the 2008 AUS grand prix.

[PayasYouRace]

No reason to expect many SC periods unless we're expecting unreliability to result in many drivers hitting the wall and/or leaving huge rivers of oil on the track.

[KiloWatt]

I can see the safety car winning both titles this year...

 

When people predict Mercedes walking it this year, I had no idea that this is what they meant...

[Nonesuch]

Number of retirements at the first race in previous years:

 

2013: 4

2012: 9 (+2 DNQ)

2011: 5 (+2 DNQ +1 NC +2 DSQ)

2010: 9

2009: 7 (+1 DSQ)

2008: 15 (+1 DSQ) - five car pile-up at the start

2007: 5

2006: 4

2005: 3 (+2 withdrawn (Honda))

2004: 5 (+1 NC)

2003: 9

2002: 12 (+2 DSQ) - eight car pile-up at the start

2001: 9

2000: 11 (+1 DSQ + 1 withdrawn)

[OO7]

Number of retirements at the first race in previous years:

 

2013: 4

2012: 9 (+2 DNQ)

2011: 5 (+2 DNQ +1 NC +2 DSQ)

2010: 9

2009: 7 (+1 DSQ)

2008: 15 (+1 DSQ) - five car pile-up at the start

2007: 5

2006: 4

2005: 3 (+2 withdrawn (Honda))

2004: 5 (+1 NC)

2003: 9

2002: 12 (+2 DSQ) - eight car pile-up at the start

2001: 9

2000: 11 (+1 DSQ + 1 withdrawn)

Your name may prove to be prophetic.

[Hanzo]

I really have no idea of how many cars will finish the first GP. I am not even sure of how many cars will start the race from the actual grid. Some teams will work on the car on sunday to change/fix pieces, so probably a few cars will start from the pit lane...

I also don't know if the cars will lap like crazy from start to finish during the practice sessions or if we wont see much action because they want to play it safe and don't "risk" too much having the car out there more laps than they think its necessary.  A lot of things to see in Australia.

[JeePee]

The top 10 will consist of 8 mercedes powered cars. 

 

With the Ferrari's on P1 and P2?

[Massa_f1]

I think it takes the p*ss to be honest to have such little testing time after such a major revamp in the regulations. if know body finished I would laugh and laugh, because it would be the sports own fault for it's ridiculous testing rules.

 

I am used to unreliability having been a fan of F1 all of my life, but I get the feeling newcomers are going to be in for a shock after Melbourne

[Nemo1965]

I think it takes the p*ss to be honest to have such little testing time after such a major revamp in the regulations. if know body finished I would laugh and laugh, because it would be the sports own fault for it's ridiculous testing rules.

 

I am used to unreliability having been a fan of F1 all of my life, but I get the feeling newcomers are going to be in for a shock after Melbourne

 

If every race all the cars finish, THAT Is damaging for the view of F1 in the very broad superficial view of the world of sports.

 

Would it really be such a drama if only 8 cars finish the race? Are newcomers going to be schocked when many cars retire, especially if they retire in a cloud of smoke and fire (here's hoping...) Ofcourse not. It would only (re)establish motorsport as dangerous and threatening, especially with Hollywood-like retirements... Heiki's Kovalinen Caterham catching fire two years back did more for F1 than Perez suprise second place in Sepang...

 

I don't understand how seasoned F1 watchers like yourself seem to have a skewed view on how new or superficial F1 fans see motorsport. When they see Vettel winning, it's not half as bad for F1 as we, the diehard fans, think it is. What IS damning, I think, is the total lack of suprises overall. You know, the heartbraking moments of people driving in the points and then having to give it up. The driver leading the race, unexpectedly, the underdog scoring points...

[stairpotato]

I don't understand how seasoned F1 watchers like yourself seem to have a skewed view on how new or superficial F1 fans see motorsport. When they see Vettel winning, it's not half as bad for F1 as we, the diehard fans, think it is. What IS damning, I think, is the total lack of suprises overall. You know, the heartbraking moments of people driving in the points and then having to give it up. The driver leading the race, unexpectedly, the underdog scoring points...

 

Agreed.  Some of the best races I've ever witnessed have seen mechanical dramas, engines that grenade themselves, etc.  We've made F1 too reliable - and sadly once the teams have grip on the new technology - the longer engine life requirement will make it too reliable again.

 

F1 cars need to be blisteringly quick for a race distance...then fall apart as they cross the line....

[midgrid]

No reason to expect many SC periods unless we're expecting unreliability to result in many drivers hitting the wall and/or leaving huge rivers of oil on the track.

Agreed; let's not forget that the organisers routinely red-flag testing sessions whenever any car stops out on the circuit, which isn't the case at race weekends.

 

My view is that low reliability means that the teams are being challenged significantly by the new rules, which is a welcome change after many years of technical stasis.  F1 has always been about a combination of speed and reliability - if outright speed was the only thing that mattered, then the Grands Prix could be ended after qualifying.

[D.M.N.]

Number of retirements at the first race in previous years:

 

2013: 4

2012: 9 (+2 DNQ)

2011: 5 (+2 DNQ +1 NC +2 DSQ)

2010: 9

2009: 7 (+1 DSQ)

2008: 15 (+1 DSQ) - five car pile-up at the start

2007: 5

2006: 4

2005: 3 (+2 withdrawn (Honda))

2004: 5 (+1 NC)

2003: 9

2002: 12 (+2 DSQ) - eight car pile-up at the start

2001: 9

2000: 11 (+1 DSQ + 1 withdrawn)

 

Feels strange seeing that because I remember 2006 being more chaotic and dramatic than 2008, didn't 2008 only have the Glock related SC?

[David Lightman]

I think more than 8 but there will be many walking wounded running very slowly I think. I also hope Sebastian is respectful to other cars when he's being lapped.

[Longtimefan]

14++

[BullHead]

Too early to say. See how the final test session goes. Already compared to Jerez reliability overall seems to have improved massively for most teams

[steferrari]

I have another question... you think somebody won't be able to make it into the 107% ?

[Fastcake]

I don't think it will be that drastic. At worst I'll say half the grid, with reliability slowly improving throughout the season as engine issues are fixed.

[midgrid]

I have another question... you think somebody won't be able to make it into the 107% ?

Yes, but I expect the organisers to be lenient in this respect, e.g. using practice times within 107% of the pace in that session as sufficient.  

[Shiroo]

Whos brainwave was it to reduce engines per year whilst introducing new more complex ones?

 

the engines itself are great.. but limiting them to 5 per year while they are way more stressed and are brand new... well it is at least ********.

 

I bet 8 or less

[jjcale]

No way more than 8 are finishing....