23 replies to this topic

[Kristian]

Who do you think will win for the first time this year? 

 

From the likely contenders, I think Red Bull are going to have a season like McLaren in 2009 - thus maybe able to get a couple of wins later on after a hopeless start, but I think Vettel will get these. So I don't think Dan will get any victories this year. 

 

Also I cannot see Renault getting it together to win this year, so Romain will have to wait. 

 

Kevin Magnussen will get a couple if McLaren keep up their testing pace and reliability - in fact I would put a cheeky £5 on him winning his first race, given how chaotic it could be. 

 

And in the early season chaos I think Force India or Williams might sneak something; I think I'd put money on Hulkenberg getting a win say in a wet Malaysia or China. 

 

What's everyone else's thoughts? 

Edited by Kristian, 23 February 2014 - 12:50.

[Anderis]

I think many drivers stand a good chance of their first win in 2014. Pecking order might be changed compared to last couple of years, and worse reliability might give a chance to win a race in not a very top car. It's hard to predict who might it be, but I think it's more than 50% of chance we will have a new winner in 2014.

 

Magnussen looks like a good bet due to the team he is driving for.

 

Grosjean would look like a good bet if Renault is able to solve their problem. The same goes for Ricciardo.

 

I think Hulkenberg can even win in a midfield car if there's a damp race or so.

 

Bottas may surprise many this year, I feel.

 

But option "nobody" should also be included in poll.

[Longtimefan]

Obviously RBR won't let their #2 win unless golden boy is DNF, I think if the McLaren is remotely competitive, then Magnussen will certainly be up there. As for the others.. I'm not sure

[tmzxaar]

Magnussen for sure. Hulkenberg and Bo77as could also get a win.

[SpartanChas]

Obviously RBR won't let their #2 win unless golden boy is DNF, I think if the McLaren is remotely competitive, then Magnussen will certainly be up there. As for the others.. I'm not sure

since when?

I'd put money on Kev winning, and Hulk and Valtteri getting podiums at least.

[DutchQuicksilver]

Only Magnussen really. People expected midfield teams to win back in 2009 as well, and see what happened then. So no, I don't expect Hulkenberg or Bottas win a race really.

 

I don't see anything spectacular in Ricciardo as well, so unless Red Bull suddenly have the fastest car again, I don't see him winning a race this season either.

[Jimisgod]

From most to least likely...

 

1st group: in with a good shot

 

MAG

 

2nd group: in with a reasonable shot

 

HUL

BOT

RIC

PER

GRO

 

3rd group: need something truly incredible to happen

 

SUT

VER

KVY

GUT

 

4th group: the universe will end before these guys ever win in those cars

 

KOB

BIA

CHI

ERI

Edited by Jimisgod, 23 February 2014 - 12:20.

[Kristian]

 

 

 

 

But option "nobody" should also be included in poll.

Good point! DOne

[Zoetrope]

Vettel won 29 out of 32 Red Bull victories of last 3 years. Don't really see much hope for Ricciardo unless they produce a car of similar caliber to last year...which is unlikely when people are doubting they will even fight for podiums.

I voted Magnussen and that's about it. But Hulkenberg and Bottas surely are in a good position for podiums.

At the same time, I would be very cautious about expecting huge chaos at the beginning of the season. It very well may turn out to have, for example, Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari being miles away from competition and locking podiums at every Grand Prix. Also remember possibility of Red Bull and Lotus being no slouch either making it extremely competitive for teams like Williams or Force India to reach the podium.

[Dauemannen]

Before testing started I would say probably Ricciardo and very possibly Magnussen, with the Force India and Sauber guys, as well as Bottas being remote possibilities.

Now Magnussen is the only one I would take a one-to-one bet on and hence the only one I voted on. But if Red Bull get their **** together Ricciardo could easily win one, and the Mercedes engine looks like a winner, so Forci India or Williams could surprise.

[SpartanChas]

Quite surprised at how many drivers on the grid haven't won a race. In 2012 we had six champions and eighteen non-champions, now we have eight winners and 14 others.

[Risil]

And five champions.

[MoebiusPT]

Only Magnussen really. People expected midfield teams to win back in 2009 as well, and see what happened then. So no, I don't expect Hulkenberg or Bottas win a race really.

 

I don't see anything spectacular in Ricciardo as well, so unless Red Bull suddenly have the fastest car again, I don't see him winning a race this season either.

 

Let's see... first two teams in the WCC in 2009

 

Red-Bull: 7th in 2008, 5th in 2007, 7th in 2006

Honda (Brawn in 2009): 9th in 2008, 8th in 2007, 4th in 2006

 

 

Rule changes have impact, major changes have even more impact, like 2009, 1998, 1994, 1988 just to name some "recent" examples.

[emmanuelrubi]

I would love to see Perez or Hulk having their first win.

[vas04614]

Being Force India fan, i am with @emmanuelrubi ^^^. But genuinely looks like MAG (at start of season) and Ricciardo (probably at end of season) have good chance.

[KWSN - DSM]

Nothing is certain, I voted Magnussen and Hulkenberg. Magnussen since the McLaren really looks as a serious contender, that McLaren obviously see a lot of upside in him, and being Danish then for purely nationalistic reasons as well.

 

If Hulkenberg is to win a race this season, I think it has to be in the early part, I expect the development of Mercedes and McLaren to outspend and outspeed Force India so that later in the season they will not be as competitive. Initially I had Williams as a semi-dark horse for everything, I am sort of dialing that down and can not see a race where they will win without Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari having problems.

 

I think the 2014 season will be a lost season for Red Bull, right now I do not expect them to win any races, and if they do it will be Vettel.

 

[HuddersfieldTerrier1986]

For me I'd say Magnussen definitely with Hulkenberg possibly, more so in the early part of the season and maybe in dodgy coditions. Only other ones I'd even consider are Perez and Bottas (same criteria as Hulkenberg). Magnussen for me though will, subject to reliability, absolutely get his first win this year.

[billm99uk]

Tricky one this year, as it's as much about who has a vaguely competitive engine as the driver talent and team. Before we started testing Grosjean and Ricciardo would have been the obvious ones. Now....

[dimoose]

I think Ricciardo has a better shot at stealing a win / beating Vettal, in a non-dominate Red Bull than a Bullet Proof Red Bull.

[noikeee]

I think Magnussen will grab at least one, even if it's Kovalainen style (ie, everyone else in decent cars retires). Which with the current state of reliability is fairly possible.

 

The rest is fairly unlikely. Ricciardo and Grosjean would have a very good chance if they actually had a working engine, and they could still have it at some point of the season but it's just one obstacle too many, they'll still have to outperform the other good drivers and cars. Hulk/Pérez/Bottas do have an engine but I seriously doubt the FI and the Williams can outperform the Mac, Merc and Ferrari on pace and/or make it to the end all in the same race.

[Brandz07]

Ricciardo & Magnussen

[taz]

So who's next?

 

if there's another Canada-like race i'm guessing one the Force India boys

[Jimisgod]

Wow, Mclaren sure has underperformed their testing speed.

[aguri]

Hulk or Bottas. But I doubt either will win this season.