71 replies to this topic

[PayasYouRace]

I think a couple of weeks of us bickering and complaining until Melbourne, followed by even more bickering and complaining when the Grand Prix turns out to be not exactly what many of have arbitrarily defined as what F1 is.

 

Though personally I'm far more excited about this season that any time in the past few years, with the possible exception of 2009. The likelihood of Grands Prix being true challenges to complete combined with a major shakeup of the pecking order means I can't wait.

 

I genuinely have no idea who could win in Australia. Sure Mercedes looks fast, but Williams are also fast and reliable. Red Bull will probably be super fast when they actually run, and there's a massive question mark over Ferrari. Plus even the tail enders will have chances to impress with solid performances and possible points finishes. Bring it on! 

[noikeee]

James Allen seems to think Ferrari's on par with Williams, though I'm not sure where he got that vibe from... interesting. Have not heard much positive noises about the Ferrari before.

[taran]

Totally agree, I think scale of Renualt and RB problems sort of kept everyone's attention away from the fact all teams still have issues.

 

Guess I am feeling my age but I remember similar times....

 

Back in 1984, people were worried no car would finish because of the 220l fuel limit.

Then it was the new atmo engines in 1989 which were shaking cars apart in preseason testing.

The Ferrari driven by Gerhard and Nigel hardly completed a lap during testing but then won the opening round!

 

And so it has gone on and on and on. Fans & journo's get their knickers in a twist but in the end, the teams somehow always manage and the stories of doomsday races inevitably proven to be very false.

 

And so it will likely be again....

[ExFlagMan]

Guess I am feeling my age but I remember similar times....
 
Back in 1984, people were worried no car would finish because of the 220l fuel limit.
Then it was the new atmo engines in 1989 which were shaking cars apart in preseason testing.

The Ferrari driven by Gerhard and Nigel hardly completed a lap during testing but then won the opening round!.

And so it has gone on and on and on. Fans & journo's get their knickers in a twist but in the end, the teams somehow always manage and the stories of doomsday races inevitably proven to be very false.
 
And so it will likely be again....

Could this be put down to umpteen laps round their own test track in the gap between pre-season testing and the first race?

Edited by ExFlagMan, 03 March 2014 - 12:20.

[TheSpecialOne]

What about Nico and Lewis falling out so spectacularly due to each being the others only competition for the championship, that Nico goes to RB and replaces a frustrated Vettel due to Renault not getting their act together, and moves to Ferrari? You heard it here first...

[showtime]

James Allen seems to think Ferrari's on par with Williams, though I'm not sure where he got that vibe from... interesting. Have not heard much positive noises about the Ferrari before.

He's not the only one http://www.f1times.c...s/display/08570

[Coops3]

The only thing I'm even slightly confident of is that there'll be some unexpected surprises in Melbourne.

[taran]

Could this be put down to umpteen laps round their own test track in the gap between pre-season testing and the first race?

 

 

No. Ferrari introduced the flappy paddle gearbox and it was so unreliable, they were convinced the car wouldn't last the whole race. I believe the team booked a return flight early (to escape traffic congestion) and the team manager (under pressure from the Italian press) asked a glory run with reduced fuel in the tank. The designer (Barnard) threw a fit and had the car fueled properly and to everyone's surprise, Mansell went on to win the race. And then cut his hands on the winner's trophy....Ah, happy times....

[PayasYouRace]

 

Then it was the new atmo engines in 1989 which were shaking cars apart in preseason testing.

 

 

That can't have been that much of a worry given that many teams had already built up 1 or 2 years of experience using those engines. I doubt Benetton in particular were all that worried.

[taran]

That can't have been that much of a worry given that many teams had already built up 1 or 2 years of experience using those engines. I doubt Benetton in particular were all that worried.

 

You'd be wrong.

 

When F1 allowed atmos to run alongside the turbos, teams (and these were initially all poor teams) just dusted off old cossies and gave them a quick increase to 3.5L. These were then steadily massaged so power and especially revs increased. Which caused the problems as turbos had run at much lower revs. So a 1987 cossie would not require the same structural bracing as a 1989 cossie. Even Benetton had this problem. They ran updated cossies in 1988 before swithing to a new design V8 in 1989.

 

Now I don't want to overstate the issue just clarify that the teams encountered a lot more problems than expected when running atmo engines. Which was considered strange at the time as less than a decade ago, they all ran atmo engines....

But they all overcame the problems, it just took some time.

[Mercedestorque1]

......now we wait to crown Hamilton the 2014 WDC

[Retrofly]

I've got a feeling that for the first few races no team will finish with 100% reliability.

 

I think a lot will come down to luck, who's car finishes not nessiarily which car is fastest.

 

You could quite easily see a situation where 1 member of a team gets 4 wins and the other gets 4 DNF's. Its wide open.

[GlenP]

......now we wait to crown Hamilton the 2014 WDC

Or… his team-mate!

[pingu666]

i wouldnt write off ferrari as sooner or later they pull something out of the hat. and alonso and kimi... you just expect them to get results and fairly often do something remarkable.

[noikeee]

He's not the only one http://www.f1times.c...s/display/08570

 

"Gillan, speaking to James Allen on F1,"

 

That one is just quoting the James Allen blog article.

[Jerem]

I don't really know where to post this, but I just wanted to remind you of the results of testing last year in Barcelona:

http://www.formula1....13/3/14310.html

 

Mercedes, Ferrari were on top. Lotus, which won Australia, was further back, behind some McLaren, Sauber, Force India (the latter was the only one to be good at the beginning of the season).

RBR was even further back.

Reliability was not really an issue back then, but Lotus after missing part of the first test in Barcelona, was quite far behind in terms of mileage. We all know the reliability record they achieved later. Sauber, Mercedes and Ferrari had the most laps, but Rosberg and Hulkenberg were among the three mechanical DNFs in Melbourne, together with Ricciardo.

 

TL;DR: As a reminder, don't believe everything testing seems to say, and don't believe the pundits who say they know.

[Anderis]

Last year you could see Red Bull wouldn't push for quick lap, but their long run pace was as good as anyone's as I seem to recall. Lotus also looked strong. And Williams looked poorly. All of that was confirmed later in the season. The only team really looking worse in testing than in races early in the season was Force India.

[noikeee]

Yeah any conclusions we're trying to get from testing isn't just looking at the laptimes table and expecting the results to mimic that, that obviously never works. It's more like a combination of top laptimes, long run pace times, quotes and analysis from several sources, trackside observations, recent history of the teams and informed estimations/guesses.

[Toxicant]

My guess is less then six cars finish, with only three on the lead lap.

[Tapz63]

My guess is less then six cars finish, with only three on the lead lap.

You really have such little faith in the teams? There will be at least 12 finishers I would say.

[Kingshark]

Who looks good? Mercedes powered teams

 

Who looks bad? Renault powered teams.

 

What should we expect for the first races, the first and second half of the season? Mercedes to dominate the 1st half of the season, closely followed by Williams and McLaren. Ferrari and Red Bull to make a comeback later on the year.

 

Who will win the WDC and WCC? Nico Rosberg and Mercedes.

[Jerem]

Last year you could see Red Bull wouldn't push for quick lap, but their long run pace was as good as anyone's as I seem to recall. Lotus also looked strong. And Williams looked poorly. All of that was confirmed later in the season. The only team really looking worse in testing than in races early in the season was Force India.

I agree with everything you said. However, Red Bull for example never looked as good as it eventually became. McLaren and Ferrari looked better than what they actually did.

Another parameter that did not really show up in testing (and it is the same this year) is how the tyres were behaving. All drivers were reporting that the degradation was extreme (I remember the McLaren drivers in particular mentioning that), but we could never know to what extent it affected either car. As it turned out, degradation was bad on the Mercedes, whereas Lotus and FI managed it OK. This year, we know even less about tyres because teams have worse problems, but they will still be critical...