The standings after Australia:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) an1res 101 101 = Anderis 101 101 = Apex 101 101 = aray 101 101 = Barty 101 101 = Bleu 101 101 = Brawn BGP 001 101 101 = Costaz 101 101 = DutchQuicksilver 101 101 = Estwald 101 101 = Fastcake 101 101 = fisichella_2001 101 101 = Grayson 101 101 = HeidfeldsBeard 101 101 = Kingshark 101 101 = kismet 101 101 = KWSN-DSM 101 101 = LB 101 101 = Makarias 101 101 = mark f1 101 101 = noikeee 101 101 = scheivlak 101 101 = Wander 101 101 = wattoroos 101 101 = Wlleiotl 101 101 26) AcuraF1 100 100 = d_view7 100 100 = skylark68 100 100 29) Iranie 98 101 30) M2000-5 88 88
Some carnage already at the season opener, whahey! Iranie overspent by three points in a late edit that I didn't get to check and starts off with a penalty.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. In order to make the Popularity Poll 1919 points, the values for Alonso and Bianchi were rounded off down instead of up, as it otherwise would have been. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2013.
Name Max Pop Min Diff Hami 360 258 160 +120 Rosb 296 247 200 +140 Alon 278 203 162 - 35 Räik 267 172 111 - 10 Butt 238 153 79 - 29 Vett 204 148 76 -104 Mass 203 124 70 - 11 Magn 173 119 55 +119 Bott 170 115 46 + 77 Hülk 122 84 42 + 24 Ricc 135 83 6 + 69 Pere 100 61 24 - 61 Gros 90 46 2 - 69 Mald 72 29 0 - 21 Suti 60 27 8 - 10 Guti 40 15 2 - 13 Verg 40 14 3 + 1 Kvya 35 11 0 + 11 Bian 25 5 0 + 5 Koba 14 2 0 + 2 Chil 20 2 0 + 2 Eric 10 1 0 + 1
Some massive changes this year...
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff Merc 505 +260 Ferr 375 + 2 McLa 272 - 32 Will 239 +151 RBR 231 -194 FoIn 145 + 73 Lotu 75 -222 Saub 42 - 46 STR 25 - 2 Maru 7 + 7 Cate 3 + 3
* Mercedes and Williams hyped up.
* Woes expected for RBR; Lotus even more so.
* Marussia and Caterham at least give a blip on the seismograph.
If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction, the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot 1) DutchQuicksilver 1834 2) Wander 1808 3) scheivlak 1806 4) fisichella_2001 1798 5) Anderis 1796 6) Kingshark 1793 7) wattoroos 1788 8) kismet 1787 9) Fastcake 1785 10) Iranie 1779 11) Grayson 1766 = Makarias 1766 13) Brawn BGP 001 1761 = skylark68 1761 15) Bleu 1759 16) Estwald 1752 17) HeidfeldsBeard 1749 18) aray 1741 19) LB 1740 20) noikeee 1736 21) d_view7 1723 22) mark f1 1718 23) AcuraF1 1703 = Apex 1703 = Costaz 1703 26) Wlleiotl 1691 27) Barty 1684 28) KWSN-DSM 1681 29) an1res 1672 30) M2000-5 1519
M2000-5's entry does stand out a lot, with the highest of all guesses for the Mercedes and Ferrari drivers and the lowest for the RBR and Lotus drivers!
How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver Players Hami 19 Rosb 8 Alon 2 Butt 1 Räik 1
Not a single vote for Vettel! The only draw came from Iranie who placed Lewis and Nico equal in points.
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned <- = -> Vett 30 0 0 Ricc Gros 27 3 0 Mald Hülk 27 3 0 Pere Alon 27 2 1 Räik Suti 27 2 1 Guti Butt 26 3 1 Magn Bian 21 8 1 Chil Hami 20 1 9 Rosb Verg 18 5 7 Kvya Mass 16 2 12 Bott Koba 12 16 2 Eric
Tough showdown expected at Williams! Mercedes isn't clear cut either, which is nice. Most teams have a very clear expected lead driver though.
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 21,6 13,2 1 Verg 13,9 4,9 0 Magn 12,6 8,6 0 Rosb 10,1 8,4 0 Kvya 9,0 2,8 4 Butt 7,8 5,0 0 Hülk 7,1 4,9 0 Bott 7,0 4,7 0 Alon 4,9 3,6 0 Räik 2,3 1,5 0
This list displays a big grin.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Rosberg Ricciardo Magnussen Button Alonso * Forecast 475 * Potential 468 * Potential 465 * Potential 462 * Potential 460 * Potential 475 * Forecast 342 * Forecast 285 Costaz 238 M2000-5 278 M2000-5 296 kismet 135 Kingshark 173 Barty 237 HeidfeldsBeard 256 Barty 292 aray 132 Wander 165 Apex 230 aray 252 noikeee 271 Makarias 131 KWSN-DSM 160 * Forecast 228 AcuraF1 235 Apex 270 mark f1 125 Brawn BGP 001 154 Brawn BGP 001 224 an1res 225 Wlleiotl 270 d_view7 124 Costaz 154 Fastcake 221 d_view7 222 HeidfeldsBeard 268 AcuraF1 111 Apex 150 LB 200 fisichella_2001 217 Estwald 266 DutchQuicksilver102 scheivlak 149 Estwald 177 LB 215 skylark68 265 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Fastcake 147 Wander 171 Costaz 210 Bleu 255 Barty 92 Estwald 146 scheivlak 162 Fastcake 209 Makarias 255 skylark68 89 Barty 135 KWSN-DSM 160 Barty 204 Anderis 254 Brawn BGP 001 88 HeidfeldsBeard 132 noikeee 155 Anderis 201 scheivlak 254 Bleu 87 Wlleiotl 120 Kingshark 151 DutchQuicksilver201 LB 250 noikeee 87 noikeee 119 Wlleiotl 150 Iranie 200 Kingshark 248 Estwald 84 DutchQuicksilver118 skylark68 149 kismet 200 Fastcake 246 fisichella_2001 83 aray 115 DutchQuicksilver146 wattoroos 196 d_view7 245 wattoroos 82 Makarias 114 Makarias 146 Wander 195 mark f1 245 Kingshark 81 Anderis 112 HeidfeldsBeard 145 Bleu 194 AcuraF1 242 Grayson 80 kismet 110 kismet 145 Brawn BGP 001 194 fisichella_2001 242 Iranie 80 LB 110 aray 140 skylark68 192 kismet 240 Wander 78 Bleu 107 M2000-5 140 * Forecast 190 Brawn BGP 001 236 an1res 75 fisichella_2001 102 Grayson 125 Apex 190 DutchQuicksilver234 Anderis 67 wattoroos 102 Iranie 125 KWSN-DSM 190 Wander 233 Fastcake 66 d_view7 101 wattoroos 119 Grayson 184 Costaz 229 Apex 60 an1res 100 mark f1 115 scheivlak 184 Iranie 227 Costaz 57 Grayson 100 fisichella_2001 113 Makarias 183 KWSN-DSM 225 LB 55 skylark68 100 Anderis 112 Kingshark 178 Grayson 220 Wlleiotl 50 Iranie 80 Bleu 110 mark f1 175 wattoroos 219 scheivlak 49 mark f1 75 d_view7 110 Wlleiotl 170 aray 206 KWSN-DSM 40 AcuraF1 62 an1res 100 Estwald 162 an1res 200 * Current 18 M2000-5 55 AcuraF1 79 noikeee 162 * Current 25 M2000-5 6 * Current 15 * Current 12 * Current 10
You could easily foresee the bottom end of Ricciardo's list to become quite a disaster zone. M2000-5 is already in the muck.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Bottas Hülkenberg Räikkönen Vergne Kvyat * Potential 458 * Potential 456 * Potential 454 * Potential 452 * Potential 451 Wlleiotl 170 skylark68 122 M2000-5 267 mark f1 40 an1res 35 KWSN-DSM 168 * Forecast 114 d_view7 258 * Forecast 38 mark f1 25 noikeee 160 KWSN-DSM 110 AcuraF1 215 an1res 35 Iranie 23 * Forecast 152 Makarias 110 Barty 204 noikeee 27 KWSN-DSM 20 Barty 145 Costaz 109 Costaz 203 wattoroos 27 * Forecast 19 AcuraF1 144 Kingshark 102 Iranie 200 Anderis 26 Anderis 19 Iranie 140 an1res 100 Wander 192 Iranie 22 Bleu 19 Anderis 137 Estwald 98 Fastcake 188 KWSN-DSM 20 Fastcake 18 Makarias 132 scheivlak 96 DutchQuicksilver179 fisichella_2001 16 fisichella_2001 18 d_view7 130 Anderis 94 HeidfeldsBeard 178 aray 15 scheivlak 18 wattoroos 130 Brawn BGP 001 92 Kingshark 177 Grayson 15 noikeee 17 Estwald 121 fisichella_2001 92 wattoroos 177 Barty 14 wattoroos 16 fisichella_2001 121 Grayson 92 an1res 175 DutchQuicksilver 14 Brawn BGP 001 15 an1res 120 aray 90 Bleu 171 AcuraF1 13 Grayson 14 LB 120 HeidfeldsBeard 88 LB 165 Brawn BGP 001 13 aray 10 Brawn BGP 001 118 d_view7 85 Anderis 164 Bleu 12 Wlleiotl 10 scheivlak 116 mark f1 85 KWSN-DSM 163 Kingshark 12 Kingshark 9 Grayson 110 Fastcake 83 Apex 160 scheivlak 12 kismet 9 Wander 107 Wander 82 aray 160 Fastcake 11 Makarias 6 M2000-5 106 Wlleiotl 80 Grayson 155 Apex 10 Apex 5 Fastcake 101 Iranie 75 Makarias 153 d_view7 10 Costaz 5 Bleu 100 kismet 75 scheivlak 152 Wlleiotl 10 DutchQuicksilver 5 kismet 100 DutchQuicksilver 71 mark f1 150 LB 8 Estwald 5 DutchQuicksilver 96 Apex 70 Wlleiotl 150 skylark68 8 LB 5 Kingshark 96 wattoroos 68 fisichella_2001 148 Estwald 7 Wander 5 aray 95 M2000-5 67 skylark68 148 HeidfeldsBeard 7 HeidfeldsBeard 3 mark f1 90 noikeee 65 kismet 145 kismet 7 * Current 1 skylark68 89 Bleu 63 Estwald 135 Costaz 6 Barty 1 Apex 70 AcuraF1 61 noikeee 121 Makarias 6 AcuraF1 0 HeidfeldsBeard 62 LB 60 Brawn BGP 001 111 Wander 5 d_view7 0 Costaz 46 Barty 42 * Forecast 76 M2000-5 3 M2000-5 0 * Current 8 * Current 6 * Current 4 * Current 2 skylark68 0
Kvyat already beats a few pessimists, and Vergne isn't far off the lowest of his guesses.
The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP. You can use the time not spent on reading the forecast by banging your head against the wall, as the PTPC tradition is after the season opener.
