40 replies to this topic

[schuey91]

It's clear to see that Mercedes are currently lightyears ahead of the competition, though Red Bull are rapidly on the improve.

 

I wouldn't bet against a Merc triumph at Bahrain and China, but a Red Bull or even a Williams victory at Barcelona seems like a realistic timeframe for another outfit to taste success.

 

When do you expect we can see the finger saluting again, or perhaps Massa enjoying his first victory since that infamous day at Interlagos in 2008?

 

Or Ricciardo finally enjoying some luck and seeing how much wider his grin can get?

[Zava]

I'd guess red bull could pull it off in monaco.

[Goron3]

Monaco. Top speed isn't important there; it's all about low speed downforce and traction.

[EthanM]

Monaco. Top speed isn't important there; it's all about low speed downforce and traction.

 

which are about driveability, which is about the PU and well the ICE and the electric motor mesh, which is currently Merc's strength

[Thomas99]

Catalunya.

 

The Red Bull has supreme downforce and this has always been their stomping ground. If Merc can beat Red Bull here then its going to look like a season thats already over.

[schuey91]

I'd say Merc will dominate Monaco given their form in recent seasons,

 

Schuey would have won easily in 2012 if he didn't have his penalty and fuel problems.

 

Rosberg won last season, chances are he'll do the same again...

[LeMans86]

From Hungary / the summer break onwards it might be "First race won in the second half of 2014 by a car other than a Red Bull" again

[PNSD]

Monaco and Canada, anything can happen in those races. So even if not on pace I think another team will win one of those racess

[Jerem]

I expect Red Bull to win in Spain.

[ReeVe]

I expect Red Bull to win in Spain.

 

unless Renault and Ferrari fix their engines all bar the Mercedes powered cars will be gimped in Barcelona, from memory it's the highest fuel consumption track of the season. So they will have to run a combination of lower drag (less downforce) and or leaner maps

[sopa]

Red Bull at Monaco seems like a decent guesstimate in terms of someone finally fighting for a race win on merit. But who knows, maybe there is a race, where both Mercedes hit trouble, then any of the chasers, be it Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, Williams or even Force India, may capitalize.

[Lights]

Catalunya.

 

The Red Bull has supreme downforce and this has always been their stomping ground. If Merc can beat Red Bull here then its going to look like a season thats already over.

Red Bull were nowhere at Catalunya for the past two years.

[Jon83]

Red Bull most likely, Ferrari if the Mercedes cars run into trouble.

 

In a normal race, I don't see anyone getting near Mercedes right now.

[Zoetrope]

Damn title topic spoiled my chance to write Australia 

[slmk]

Potentially Spain if RBR's RB10v2 is an improvement.

 

If not, then after the summer break. Just don't see anyone beating Mercedes around Monaco, Canada and Austria, all 3 of which are mechanical-grip dependent tracks and 2 of which are power tracks.

[noikeee]

Barcelona should be close but I'm gonna bet Silverstone.

[Tenmantaylor]

I'd guess red bull could pull it off in monaco.

 

Or maybe Spain. Straight isn't that long and the rest is totally aero or low speed dependent.

 

Edit: I'm assuming everyone knows which team...

Edited by Tenmantaylor, 01 April 2014 - 11:31.

[Wander]

My guesstimate is that we'll see a first non-Merc victory only when the leading Merc car runs into trouble. Vettel has the best shot. Ferrari if they improve massively. Others will need lots of luck.

[Cesc]

I only see Red Bull and maybe (but with very low probabilities) Alonso-Ferrari.

The track? Barcelona due to the aero demanding config. Maybe Silverstone and Monaco.

But currently Mercedes is on another planet in almost all aspects: power, consumption and flexibility. Wait to Monza, Q3 could be top10 mercedes engine teams.

[darkkis]

Williams should be good in Bahrain, as  they seem to be good under braking and Bahrain has lots of stop & go.

[slmk]

I only see Red Bull and maybe (but with very low probabilities) Alonso-Ferrari.

The track? Barcelona due to the aero demanding config. Maybe Silverstone and Monaco.

But currently Mercedes is on another planet in almost all aspects: power, consumption and flexibility. Wait to Monza, Q3 could be top10 mercedes engine teams.

 

Mercedes/RBR are joint best teams in aero. So, technically Barcelona will be a tight affair aside from Mercedes pulling away on the straights, unless Renault completely fixes its issues, which is not the expectation (they expect many fixes throughout the year).

[Jerem]

unless Renault and Ferrari fix their engines all bar the Mercedes powered cars will be gimped in Barcelona, from memory it's the highest fuel consumption track of the season. So they will have to run a combination of lower drag (less downforce) and or leaner maps

Wouldn't that be Montreal or Singapore?

 

Anyway, Barcelona is a pretty high downforce track and also tough on tyres (4 stops in 2013), and Red Bull has been pretty good at tyre management since Hungary 2013. It's also the place where teams bring many updates and RBR has often proved they can develop the car better than others. So overall I expect them to be closer to Merc, and at a track that would suit their package, hence the possible win.

[Cozzie]

Red Bull - Monaco

[LuckyStrike1]

I suppose Red Bull will win a race at some point this year, maybe a few more than one. And Fernando should be able pull off a victory at some point. 

Other than that it doesn't look that likely. 

McLaren? They seem to struggle a bit despite having a Mercedes. 

Williams? They seem to be too busy creating driver controversies within the team all by themselves. 

[MaxisOne]

If Red Bull has the Aero superiority that is claimed then the most logical tracks that they would be able to show that would be Catalunya and to a lesser extent Silverstone. Catalunya's high speed corners are the benchmark for measuring Aero performance.

 

Monaco is High downforce but its also high traction and acceleration so in my opinion that track is a tossup.

[Burtros]

I dont personally feel Mercedes have an advantage so large as to warrant this kind of thread. Im pretty sure Red Bull are at least on a par with them with their car, and being let down by Renault. That wont last forever.

 

So, I think confidence like this is misplaced.

 

And anyway, they could both break down in Bahrain......

[SPBHM]

Barcelona!?

[Tommay]

Double post

Edited by Tommay, 01 April 2014 - 15:16.

[Tommay]

I think Monaco due to the way Redbull have set up their gears

[Afterburner]

If reliability is as big a factor as everyone would have us believe, then this isn't nearly as open as most seem to think it is. Reliability out of it, though, and I'd say it's probably Red Bull. No telling where, though-- but certainly not Catalunya. They usually aren't that great around there. In 2011, McLaren was quicker, and in 2012 and 2013 they were nowhere close to being in the running for the win behind Ferrari and Williams. If history is any indicator, I give Ferrari better odds than them around Catalunya.

[Disgrace]

Red Bull were nowhere at Catalunya for the past two years.

 

Likewise Mercedes to be fair, albeit more to do with the mouldy cheese wheels.

[Farhannn15]

The Merc drivers are supreme at Monaco. Wouldn't be surprised if Vettel takes it though

[sennafan24]

Red Bull - Monaco

Only if they can get the undercut

 

I see Lewis and Nico being on pole, and we all know how hard it is to overtake at Monaco.

[ollebompa]

Bahrain is Seb-City so i would not bet against at least one of the Mercs having to give way for him there.

[Spillage]

My guesstimate is that we'll see a first non-Merc victory only when the leading Merc car runs into trouble. Vettel has the best shot. Ferrari if they improve massively. Others will need lots of luck.

This. We may not have long to wait, perhaps the beginning of the European season in Spain. But I'd expect it to be a long while before both Mercedes are beaten on pace in a dry race.

[Farhannn15]

Bahrain is Seb-City so i would not bet against at least one of the Mercs having to give way for him there.

If the Renault PU were working perfectly fine then I'd agree but the deficiency on the straights makes it hard to believe that it's not going to be a Mercedes powered podium lockout

[ollebompa]

If the Renault PU were working perfectly fine then I'd agree but the deficiency on the straights makes it hard to believe that it's not going to be a Mercedes powered podium lockout

Well they do have a SW upgrade for Bahrain+RB are bringing upgrades. I'm hoping for the best!

[Jackmancer]

Ferrari in China.

[Mauseri]

Williams should be good in Bahrain, as  they seem to be good under braking and Bahrain has lots of stop & go.

Yes yes but I don't really see any Mercedes team beating Mercedes-Mercedes anywhere. Red Bull might be good in Monaco or in a wet race. I don't know if Ferrari has special characteristics to be fastest anywhere, although they have the chance to be number 2 in WDC.

[sopa]

I just forgot that it has been raining a lot at the Chinese Grands Prix. Many of the races held there have been wet races as far as I remember. 

Considering Red Bull Renault goes well in the wet, a possibly wet Chinese GP could be their first realistic chance before the Monaco GP.

 

People say that Monaco suits Mercedes due to traction, etc. But Monaco is always a unique circuit, which can provide a different order. In both 2002 and 2004 Ferrari were chasers instead of leaders at Monaco, despite dominating the rest of the season. And Monaco certainly eliminates far more Renault PU weaknesses than it plays on any possible Mercedes PU strengths. Sheer horsepower simply doesn't count there that much. Like it doesn't count in the wet and that's why Red Bull has been so competitive there in relation to Mercedes.

 

The 1998 comparison is very interesting. McLaren dominated the first two races, but as far as I remember, Argentine GP was pretty much a twisty circuit, like a Monaco without walls, and it was slightly drizziling at some parts during the race too. So Schumacher got one back and beat the McLaren. In similar conditions Vettel can beat the Mercedes - on a twisty stuff and in drizzly conditions, further playing on the strengths of the Bulls.

 

Then in 1998 McLaren continued to dominate until Canada, where they would have likely won, but got double DNF. Again something, which may happen to Merc too. And then Schumacher won on merit in France by brilliant strategy together with Irvine. And UK was again wet. And Schumi was within striking distance of WDC lead.

 

What I am saying, with the help of circumstances, good development pace and some luck Vettel can stay within striking distance. Remember, in Malaysia he wasn't far behind Rosberg. Imagine if some time again one Mercedes has a bad race, he can capitalize and beat that car. And the other Mercedes retires. And it's the win.

 

But one thing is sure, Vettel can't afford any DNF-s. From now onwards he must finish very consistently. Which I am quite doubtful about to be honest. And this can cost him the WDC challenge this year.

Edited by sopa, 01 April 2014 - 19:01.

[KingTiger]

A wet win by Alonso looks like the most likely thing in the next few races. Mercedes can't stretch out it's legs when it's wet and knowing their and Alonso's luck, they'll probably get some type of mechanical failure with Alonso profiting from it like usual. 

 

Catalunya.

 

The Red Bull has supreme downforce and this has always been their stomping ground. If Merc can beat Red Bull here then its going to look like a season thats already over.

 

Sepang is one of the highest downforce tracks on the calendar.