Interesting topic. My gut reaction is maybe, but only in extraordinary circumstances. Really, both should have won a race in 2012, but in both cases the teams' lead drivers made mistakes that spoiled what were otherwise (and in any case) outstanding performances. My guess is that if either team does win a race it'll be a similar story; a young driver brilliantly sticking it to the big boys in a semi-competitive car in wet or otherwise unusual conditions. For that reason I find it very difficult to say whether or not either team will ever win a race - FI look like they have the better chance this year but I'd still be surprised and impressed to see them nick a win. Impossible to look any further ahead than this season, really.
A young talented driver having a very good setup going surprisingly well in the wet and making a name for himself has indeed been the case for a midfield team on multiple occasions, either culminating with a win or not:
2008 Italy Vettel
2012 Malaysia Perez
2012 Brazil Hulkenberg
However, we have had a few odd cases, where a normally midfield team has an extraordinarily fast car even in the dry:
2009 Belgium Fisichella
2012 Spain Maldonado
2012 Italy Perez
2009 and 2012 situations can arise only if none of the teams understand the new complicated rules properly, so that some underdog teams can get an advantage and genuinely run at the front if they get some developments right. Another such season was 1997, when Bridgestone got its development right, which helped Prost, Stewart and Arrows massively.
However, 2014 doesn't seem like such season, because Mercedes is comfortably running at the front and Red Bull is coming up nicely too despite PU deficit. But who knows, what's gonna happen in subsequent seasons. Maybe Mercedes' domination will put so many people off in 2014 that Pirelli will introduce again some weird tyres next year, so that we will get some strange results. Who knows. Like we saw an unusual 2012 after the domination of Red Bull in 2011.
Edited by sopa, 03 April 2014 - 20:04.