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For how long will Mercedes remain the (new) powerhouse of F1?


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#1 sopa

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:39

First let's recall. We have at times had some significant changes. Some new powerhouses emerging and staying there.

 

1998 saw McLaren emerge at the front with only Ferrari keeping up. McLaren stayed in title contention for three years before dropping off, leaving only Ferrari as the top team till 2004, only occasionally challenged by others (2003).

 

Then 2005 saw the rise of another top team, the Renault, who stayed there 2 years before the pullout of Michelin tyres.

 

Then for two years (2007-2008) the old lead-combo of McLaren and Ferrari stayed at the front.

 

2009 saw the emergence of new top teams. Firstly, Brawn, whose case was very unique and they didn't stay there long. But more importantly Red Bull, who stayed there all the way till the end of 2013.

 

2014 has seen the emergence of Mercedes. Now - unless the Stuttgart HQ decide that they have had enough of F1, there is no reason to think Mercedes is likely to drop off anywhere. They have got everything - advanced (hybrid) technology, relatively newly hired very talented engineering team, infrastructure, budget. They are a proper top team.

 

It doesn't mean Mercedes is going to have all smooth throughout the years. They can have some difficult periods, like Ferrari in 2003 or Red Bull in early 2012. On occasion they may be beaten others. They may not always win championships. But they are there to be at the front and at the very least fight for the title if not win it. For many years to come. Until when? Until the next big regulations change? When could that be?

 

Mercedes is dominating now. But let's take a long-term view. Is Mercedes the new F1 big powerhouse, which will go into the history like the Williams of the 90s, Ferrari of 00s, Red Bull of recent years? The important thing is - They have got the ingredients.



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#2 senna da silva

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:43

Hopefully for at least 4 years! Go Lewis!  :up:



#3 Massa_f1

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:47

3-4 years. Its how long these things normally last. I just hope it's not 2 seconds a lap faster every race. Even Red Bull only had up to around 5 to 6 tenths of a second in their seasons. 2 Seconds is just insane, and predictable.



#4 hollowstar

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:47

I would see that lasting 2 years, possibly 3.  At least I hope so.  :)   Unless of course, the FIA or rival team manages to find something "wrong" on the Mercedes car.   The team having now shown its hand is not necessarily such a good thing...



#5 Asterion

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:49

At least 4-5 years. Thanks.

#6 emmanuelrubi

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:50

Depends on the performance of Honda.



#7 Cyanide

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:50

For a long, long time. It could last more than the RBR era.

 

They simply invested a lot more resources and human capital in this for anybody to beat them over the course of next 4-5 years. As long as the regs stay as they are and we have this setup for the engines, this domination will not stop. 



#8 photon

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:50

In my opinion, a long time.  They saw what Red Bull did and have emulated it brilliantly.  Look how well that lasted and has only now finally been undone by something Red Bull couldn't control -- the engines.  While Ferrari was busy scape-goating all their most prominent figures, Mercedes was busy hiring them up.  To cap it off they've nabbed many principal names from Red Bull.  This has all only been in addition to getting easily the best engine in F1.  IMO the best chance of seeing some competition will be if Honda is able to emulate Mercedes in the engine department and bring it to Red Bull next season.  Fortunately, that could be likely -- surely Honda wouldn't come back to F1 only to field an also-ran.


Edited by photon, 06 April 2014 - 21:51.


#9 Alexandros

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:50

Mercedes domination can end right away by Pirelli bringing a much softer range of tires. They haven't actually built a car which is 2-3s faster than the others. It's just that they have a car which is actually inside the operating window of the very hard spectrum pirelli tires while most other teams are totally outside that spectrum, being unable to exploit the tires.

 

This could have easily been a disaster season for Mercedes for producing a "tire-eating" car, had the tires been more "normal" rather than so brick-hard.



#10 undersquare

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:52

Yeah hard to see an end to it at this point.  Red Bull aren't going to get hold of a Merc engine and Ferrari actually look short of resources by comparison.  The only way is if Bernie sells the series to Ferrari and Red Bull but not Mercedes; then they can ban remote turbo compressors...



#11 hollowstar

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:54

Mercedes domination can end right away by Pirelli bringing a much softer range of tires. They haven't actually built a car which is 2-3s faster than the others. It's just that they have a car which is actually inside the operating window of the very hard spectrum pirelli tires while most other teams are totally outside that spectrum, being unable to exploit the tires.

 

This could have easily been a disaster season for Mercedes for producing a "tire-eating" car, had the tires been more "normal" rather than so brick-hard.

 

This again? If they are such tyre-eating cars, how come the Mercs are the ones who can make these tyres last longer?  If there was anything true to your theory, they should still have to change them earlier than any other team...  and it's far from being the case. 



#12 Cyanide

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:54

Depends on the performance of Honda.

 

I'm sure even Honda regret their entry after watching today's race. 



#13 Alexandros

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:57

This again? If they are such tyre-eating cars, how come the Mercs are the ones who can make these tyres last longer?  If there was anything true to your theory, they should still have to change them earlier than any other team...  and it's far from being the case. 

 

The others are sliding so much that they are actually destroying the tires from sliding (or locking with no grip - creating flatspots) and not from normal abrasion due to grip.


Edited by Alexandros, 06 April 2014 - 21:57.


#14 KingTiger

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 21:59

For a long, long time. It could last more than the RBR era.

 

They simply invested a lot more resources and human capital in this for anybody to beat them over the course of next 4-5 years. As long as the regs stay as they are and we have this setup for the engines, this domination will not stop. 

 

Red Bull and Ferrari spend the most, and get the most amount of money from FOM, and heck, Ferrari don't even have to bother with sponsorship due to Marlboro. They are absolutely NOT short on cash in any way. 

 

It's not Mercedes' fault that Ferrari can't get an energy recovery system to work. 



#15 rmpugh

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:02

3-4 years. Its how long these things normally last. I just hope it's not 2 seconds a lap faster every race. Even Red Bull only had up to around 5 to 6 tenths of a second in their seasons. 2 Seconds is just insane, and predictable.

Not true. 

 

Red Bull, like Mercedes did today, only went as fast as they needed. They were only 2 seconds faster per lap at the end when the safety car brought the 2 Mercs together. Before this they only lapped as fast as they needed which once Lewis had a 9 second lead was not flat out. Red Bull in 2011 for example did the same thing. They were leaving the pack behind but only at a rate that is needed. When Lewis was under pressure from Nico at the end he went flat out. Red Bull in 2011 were at least as much faster than the rest.



#16 ForzaGTR

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:13

 F1 is now witnessing the Mercedes F1 team enjoy the engineering brilliance found in Mercedes road cars.



#17 senna da silva

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:16

And Kudos to Mercedes for letting their drivers race. Something we haven't seen much of with other teams dominating periods.



#18 Seanspeed

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:34

Hopefully not long. We've dealt with a dominating team for a while now and it's gonna be pretty awful to have more of it.

#19 itsademo

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:53

Most now know that one of the killer parts on the merc engine is the split trubo allowing for space between the hot turbine and cooler compressor which allows the intake not to heat up the air as much. However will the other teams be allowed to change such a crucial part when it can only be because of performance gains mid season or will they have to wait till the end.

That being said its clear from the fact the other 3 merc engined teams cannot keep up with the Mercedes team that its far more than just the turbo placement and the aero benefits that gives them.

F1 has always been about dominating teams there have been very few times when one team or another has not stolen a march on the other teams with one brilliant idea or another.

 

If people don't like this part of an non spec series perhaps they are following the wrong series and should consider following a formula series such as formula renault or consider single make racing instead.



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#20 RealRacing

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:55

First let's recall. We have at times had some significant changes. Some new powerhouses emerging and staying there.

 

1998 saw McLaren emerge at the front with only Ferrari keeping up. McLaren stayed in title contention for three years before dropping off, leaving only Ferrari as the top team till 2004, only occasionally challenged by others (2003).

 

Then 2005 saw the rise of another top team, the Renault, who stayed there 2 years before the pullout of Michelin tyres.

 

Then for two years (2007-2008) the old lead-combo of McLaren and Ferrari stayed at the front.

 

2009 saw the emergence of new top teams. Firstly, Brawn, whose case was very unique and they didn't stay there long. But more importantly Red Bull, who stayed there all the way till the end of 2013.

 

2014 has seen the emergence of Mercedes. Now - unless the Stuttgart HQ decide that they have had enough of F1, there is no reason to think Mercedes is likely to drop off anywhere. They have got everything - advanced (hybrid) technology, relatively newly hired very talented engineering team, infrastructure, budget. They are a proper top team.

 

It doesn't mean Mercedes is going to have all smooth throughout the years. They can have some difficult periods, like Ferrari in 2003 or Red Bull in early 2012. On occasion they may be beaten others. They may not always win championships. But they are there to be at the front and at the very least fight for the title if not win it. For many years to come. Until when? Until the next big regulations change? When could that be?

 

Mercedes is dominating now. But let's take a long-term view. Is Mercedes the new F1 big powerhouse, which will go into the history like the Williams of the 90s, Ferrari of 00s, Red Bull of recent years? The important thing is - They have got the ingredients.

See http://forums.autosp...-stop-mercedes/



#21 KingTiger

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Posted 06 April 2014 - 22:59

I think the order can change rapidly as soon as 2015. Red Bull haven't forgotten how to make a quality chassis and the Mercedes customers will have had a whole year to figure out how to best package the engine.



#22 zachary2142

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 01:08

Plus engines will be unfrozen after the season. And "reliability" fixes may remain an option...



#23 George Costanza

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 01:09

I think McLaren-Honda might stop Mercedes. But not with the drivers they have, IMO. If Fred leaves Ferrari, and goes to Honda, then I can see beating MGP. JB and Kevin aren't quite there with Nico and Lewis. No offense to JB, he's a very fine driver, but he doesn't have Lewis's sheer speed.


Edited by George Costanza, 07 April 2014 - 01:12.


#24 halifaxf1fan

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 01:22

It can be limited to just one season hopefully if the powers that be can intervene quickly enough.  The new rules are clearly not working as planned and should be tweaked to provide a level playng field, they have created a meaningless championship.  

 

Stuttgart is now calling the shots in F1,  the International Tribunal  'decision' from last seasons testing scandal showed us this.  So there is little hope for a solution.


Edited by halifaxf1fan, 07 April 2014 - 15:27.


#25 SR388

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 01:23

 F1 is now witnessing the Mercedes F1 team enjoy the engineering brilliance found in Mercedes road cars.

 

With a similar sized bill for parts and labor. :yawnface:



#26 Tropicana

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 02:37

Hopefully for another 4 years so Lewis can win a lot of WDCs. Now if only the team pairs Max Chilton with him so he can be guaranteed the WDC.



#27 eronrules

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 03:18

it'll only last this year ... renault and red bull will catch them up.

 

on odd races, RBR will give merc run for their money, a good aero chassis is always helpful on tracks like hungaroring or barca. 

 

once the manufacturers are allowed to modify the engine, the gap will close as more and more cats will go out of the bag. (i.e secrets)

 

ferrari though ... i'm not so sure.  :p



#28 Burtros

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 09:02

Until one of the other teams does a better job.

 

How long is a piece of string?

 

Another daft thread, just like the how long till JB retires thread..



#29 kimster89

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 09:09

Until the next big rules change, just like RBR did.



#30 Bartonz20let

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 09:13

Plus engines will be unfrozen after the season. And "reliability" fixes may remain an option...

 

Merc will improve too, don't forget that.

 

It can be limited to just one season hopefully if the powers that be can intervene quickly enough.  The new rules are clearly not working as planned and should be weaked to provide a level playng field, they have created a meaningless championship.  

 

Stuttgart is now calling the shots in F1,  the International Tribunal  'decision' from last seasons testing scandal showed us this.  So there is little hope for a solution.

 

Stop blaming the failure of other teams on the rules.  :wave:



#31 EthanM

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 09:15

Merc will improve too, don't forget that.

 

 

Stop blaming the failure of other teams on the rules.  :wave:

 

technically the other teams didn't fail, it was the other engine manufacturers that failed



#32 undersquare

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 10:29

technically the other teams didn't fail, it was the other engine manufacturers that failed

Well that's only true of the Renault-powered teams.  

 

Ferrari had the same opportunity to integrate their PU and chassis, and the other Merc-powered teams seem not to have tuned in to the possibilities.  I know it's been said that Mac/FI/Williams wouldn't have had the layouts until the contracts were signed, but I find it hard to believe either that they were misled about the turbo layout or that they laid out the chassis without know it.



#33 EthanM

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 10:38

Well that's only true of the Renault-powered teams.  

 

Ferrari had the same opportunity to integrate their PU and chassis, and the other Merc-powered teams seem not to have tuned in to the possibilities.  I know it's been said that Mac/FI/Williams wouldn't have had the layouts until the contracts were signed, but I find it hard to believe either that they were misled about the turbo layout or that they laid out the chassis without know it.

 

I don't want to get drawn in to speculating what the Merc customers knew or didn't know, I saw the "feature" on Sky and if you paid attention a bit they also said Ferrari is notorious for providing a crap customer experience for the people they supply. So I will say don't assume the engine makers are in any way shape or form super fair sporting. Heck Renault even brought fresh ICEs for RB/STR not for Lotus/Caterham this past race.

 

I just know Ross was talking about the 2014 car back in 2011. Which is AWESOME for Mercedes and I am not for a second arguing their 3 years of work should be nullified overnight. I am arguing the same thing I was arguing a year ago when we had no clue what the 2014 engines would perform, that it is monumentally stupid to "homologuate" immature components and lock them in for a whole season.

 

You have engines that hadn't run on track for more than a week. Boom, locked till the end of the season, come back in 2015 if you want changes. That for me was stupid irrespective of which engine turned out best and I would be saying the same thing if the Renault or Ferrari engines were head and shoulders above the the rest.



#34 GrumpyYoungMan

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 10:56

Hopefully not long. We've dealt with a dominating team for a while now and it's gonna be pretty awful to have more of it.

Not if they keep letting there drivers go wheel to wheel like Bahrain!



#35 halifaxf1fan

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 15:29

Merc will improve too, don't forget that.

 

 

Stop blaming the failure of other teams on the rules.  :wave:

 

I believe the failure of the other teams not to be on the new technical rules but on the extreme controls the FIA has implemented on the testing schedule especially in a year where there is so much to test.  They have a real mess on their hands.



#36 darkkis

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 15:36

Hopefully not longer than this year. It gets very old to see the same 1-2 every race.



#37 senna da silva

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Posted 07 April 2014 - 15:51

I believe the failure of the other teams not to be on the new technical rules but on the extreme controls the FIA has implemented on the testing schedule especially in a year where there is so much to test.  They have a real mess on their hands.

 

There's a test this week.  :wave: