The standings after China:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) an1res 404 101 = Anderis 404 101 = Apex 404 101 = aray 404 101 = Bleu 404 101 = Brawn BGP 001 404 101 = Costaz 404 101 = DutchQuicksilver 404 101 = Estwald 404 101 = Fastcake 404 101 = fisichella_2001 404 101 = Grayson 404 101 = Kingshark 404 101 = kismet 404 101 = KWSN-DSM 404 101 = LB 404 101 = Makarias 404 101 = mark f1 404 101 = noikeee 404 101 = scheivlak 404 101 = Wander 404 101 = wattoroos 404 101 = Wlleiotl 404 101 24) HeidfeldsBeard 403 100 25) Barty 401 100 = Iranie 401 101 27) AcuraF1 400 100 = d_view7 400 100 = skylark68 400 100 30) M2000-5 381 88
Ricciardo and Kvyat cost some points again.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Hülk 42,7 29,3 0 Kvya 35,8 11,1 6 Rosb 32,0 26,6 0 Pere 29,4 17,8 0 Hami 29,1 20,8 0 Ricc 28,8 17,6 1 Verg 27,8 9,8 1 Vett 22,3 16,1 0 Bott 20,9 14,0 0 Alon 20,3 14,7 0 Magn 16,8 11,5 0 Butt 15,0 9,6 0 Mass 9,7 5,9 0 Räik 6,4 4,1 0
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Rosberg Alonso Ricciardo Vettel * Potential 450 * Potential 454 * Potential 416 * Potential 399 * Potential 408 M2000-5 360 * Forecast 375 M2000-5 278 kismet 135 fisichella_2001 204 * Forecast 356 M2000-5 296 HeidfeldsBeard 256 aray 132 kismet 200 Apex 324 Barty 292 aray 252 Makarias 131 aray 194 LB 320 noikeee 271 AcuraF1 235 mark f1 125 skylark68 189 noikeee 298 Apex 270 an1res 225 d_view7 124 AcuraF1 188 Brawn BGP 001 284 Wlleiotl 270 d_view7 222 * Forecast 114 scheivlak 186 Bleu 280 HeidfeldsBeard 268 fisichella_2001 217 AcuraF1 111 Makarias 184 AcuraF1 275 Estwald 266 LB 215 DutchQuicksilver102 DutchQuicksilver181 fisichella_2001 275 skylark68 265 Costaz 210 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Bleu 180 kismet 270 Bleu 255 Fastcake 209 Barty 92 HeidfeldsBeard 172 Anderis 268 Makarias 255 Barty 204 skylark68 89 LB 170 skylark68 268 Anderis 254 Anderis 201 Brawn BGP 001 88 d_view7 168 Wander 265 scheivlak 254 DutchQuicksilver201 Bleu 87 mark f1 160 scheivlak 258 LB 250 Iranie 200 noikeee 87 Kingshark 159 wattoroos 255 Kingshark 248 kismet 200 Estwald 84 * Forecast 157 Fastcake 252 Fastcake 246 wattoroos 196 fisichella_2001 83 Wander 150 Wlleiotl 250 d_view7 245 Wander 195 wattoroos 82 Costaz 148 DutchQuicksilver248 mark f1 245 * Forecast 195 Kingshark 81 Grayson 145 Makarias 248 AcuraF1 242 Bleu 194 Grayson 80 Iranie 145 Kingshark 247 fisichella_2001 242 Brawn BGP 001 194 Iranie 80 Barty 138 Grayson 245 kismet 240 skylark68 192 Wander 78 noikeee 136 Estwald 242 Brawn BGP 001 236 Apex 190 an1res 75 wattoroos 133 HeidfeldsBeard 240 DutchQuicksilver234 KWSN-DSM 190 Anderis 67 Brawn BGP 001 131 Barty 239 Wander 233 Grayson 184 Fastcake 66 an1res 130 aray 238 Costaz 229 scheivlak 184 Apex 60 Apex 110 KWSN-DSM 238 Iranie 227 Makarias 183 Costaz 57 Estwald 106 Costaz 237 KWSN-DSM 225 Kingshark 178 LB 55 Anderis 104 Iranie 227 Grayson 220 mark f1 175 Wlleiotl 50 Fastcake 98 mark f1 225 wattoroos 219 Wlleiotl 170 scheivlak 49 KWSN-DSM 80 d_view7 203 aray 206 Estwald 162 KWSN-DSM 40 Wlleiotl 80 an1res 160 an1res 200 noikeee 162 * Current 24 M2000-5 76 * Current 75 * Current 79 * Current 41 M2000-5 6 * Current 33
I think Ricciardo has a great chance at a 100% surprise along with the Merc drivers. Hamilton of course has to beat M2000-5's guess, which I suppose will compensate a bit for the low Ricciardo guess...
Guesses on P6-P10:
Hülkenberg Bottas Räikkönen Perez Kvyat * Potential 411 * Potential 399 * Potential 386 * Potential 393 * Potential 379 * Forecast 171 Wlleiotl 170 M2000-5 267 an1res 100 an1res 35 skylark68 122 KWSN-DSM 168 d_view7 258 skylark68 91 mark f1 25 KWSN-DSM 110 noikeee 160 AcuraF1 215 KWSN-DSM 90 Iranie 23 Makarias 110 Barty 145 Barty 204 Costaz 87 KWSN-DSM 20 Costaz 109 AcuraF1 144 Costaz 203 * Forecast 86 * Forecast 19 Kingshark 102 Iranie 140 Iranie 200 Wlleiotl 80 Anderis 19 an1res 100 Anderis 137 Wander 192 Makarias 77 Bleu 19 Estwald 98 Makarias 132 Fastcake 188 Iranie 75 Fastcake 18 scheivlak 96 d_view7 130 DutchQuicksilver179 Grayson 70 fisichella_2001 18 Anderis 94 wattoroos 130 HeidfeldsBeard 178 Kingshark 70 scheivlak 18 Brawn BGP 001 92 Estwald 121 Kingshark 177 mark f1 70 noikeee 17 fisichella_2001 92 fisichella_2001 121 wattoroos 177 Anderis 68 wattoroos 16 Grayson 92 an1res 120 an1res 175 Brawn BGP 001 66 Brawn BGP 001 15 aray 90 LB 120 Bleu 171 DutchQuicksilver 66 Grayson 14 HeidfeldsBeard 88 Brawn BGP 001 118 LB 165 fisichella_2001 66 aray 10 d_view7 85 scheivlak 116 Anderis 164 scheivlak 64 Wlleiotl 10 mark f1 85 * Forecast 114 KWSN-DSM 163 d_view7 63 Kingshark 9 Fastcake 83 Grayson 110 Apex 160 Estwald 61 kismet 9 Wander 82 Wander 107 aray 160 kismet 60 Makarias 6 Wlleiotl 80 M2000-5 106 Grayson 155 Wander 58 Apex 5 Iranie 75 Fastcake 101 Makarias 153 wattoroos 56 Costaz 5 kismet 75 Bleu 100 scheivlak 152 Bleu 52 DutchQuicksilver 5 DutchQuicksilver 71 kismet 100 mark f1 150 HeidfeldsBeard 50 Estwald 5 Apex 70 DutchQuicksilver 96 Wlleiotl 150 Apex 45 LB 5 wattoroos 68 Kingshark 96 fisichella_2001 148 AcuraF1 44 Wander 5 M2000-5 67 aray 95 skylark68 148 Fastcake 44 * Current 4 noikeee 65 mark f1 90 kismet 145 M2000-5 43 HeidfeldsBeard 3 Bleu 63 skylark68 89 Estwald 135 noikeee 43 Barty 1 AcuraF1 61 Apex 70 noikeee 121 aray 30 AcuraF1 0 LB 60 HeidfeldsBeard 62 Brawn BGP 001 111 LB 25 d_view7 0 Barty 42 Costaz 46 * Forecast 52 Barty 24 M2000-5 0 * Current 36 * Current 24 * Current 11 * Current 18 skylark68 0
The Force India blokes will cost people points in a not too distant future. Phenomenal consistency from the Hülk!
The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.