The standings after Spain:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) an1res 505 101 = Anderis 505 101 = Apex 505 101 = aray 505 101 = Bleu 505 101 = Brawn BGP 001 505 101 = Costaz 505 101 = DutchQuicksilver 505 101 = Estwald 505 101 = Fastcake 505 101 = fisichella_2001 505 101 = Grayson 505 101 = Kingshark 505 101 = kismet 505 101 = KWSN-DSM 505 101 = LB 505 101 = Makarias 505 101 = mark f1 505 101 = noikeee 505 101 = scheivlak 505 101 = Wander 505 101 = wattoroos 505 101 = Wlleiotl 505 101 24) HeidfeldsBeard 504 101 25) Barty 502 101 = Iranie 502 101 27) AcuraF1 501 101 = d_view7 501 101 = skylark68 501 101 30) M2000-5 465 84
M2000-5 missed out from Ricciardo again, and now also Grosjean.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 46,8 28,7 1 Hülk 43,9 30,1 0 Rosb 39,3 32,7 0 Hami 38,8 27,7 0 Kvya 35,8 11,1 6 Pere 32,6 19,8 0 Vett 30,4 22,0 0 Bott 29,7 19,9 0 Verg 27,8 9,8 1 Alon 24,2 17,6 0 Magn 16,8 11,5 0 Butt 15,0 9,6 0 Räik 9,9 6,3 0 Mass 9,7 5,9 0 Gros 8,8 4,4 1
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Rosberg Ricciardo Vettel Bottas * Potential 450 * Potential 447 * Potential 389 * Potential 395 * Potential 384 * Forecast 380 * Forecast 369 * Forecast 148 fisichella_2001 204 Wlleiotl 170 M2000-5 360 M2000-5 296 kismet 135 kismet 200 KWSN-DSM 168 Apex 324 Barty 292 aray 132 aray 194 noikeee 160 LB 320 noikeee 271 Makarias 131 skylark68 189 Barty 145 noikeee 298 Apex 270 mark f1 125 AcuraF1 188 AcuraF1 144 Brawn BGP 001 284 Wlleiotl 270 d_view7 124 scheivlak 186 Iranie 140 Bleu 280 HeidfeldsBeard 268 AcuraF1 111 Makarias 184 Anderis 137 AcuraF1 275 Estwald 266 DutchQuicksilver102 DutchQuicksilver181 Makarias 132 fisichella_2001 275 skylark68 265 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Bleu 180 d_view7 130 kismet 270 Bleu 255 Barty 92 HeidfeldsBeard 172 wattoroos 130 Anderis 268 Makarias 255 skylark68 89 * Forecast 171 * Forecast 129 skylark68 268 Anderis 254 Brawn BGP 001 88 LB 170 Estwald 121 Wander 265 scheivlak 254 Bleu 87 d_view7 168 fisichella_2001 121 scheivlak 258 LB 250 noikeee 87 mark f1 160 an1res 120 wattoroos 255 Kingshark 248 Estwald 84 Kingshark 159 LB 120 Fastcake 252 Fastcake 246 fisichella_2001 83 Wander 150 Brawn BGP 001 118 Wlleiotl 250 d_view7 245 wattoroos 82 Costaz 148 scheivlak 116 DutchQuicksilver248 mark f1 245 Kingshark 81 Grayson 145 Grayson 110 Makarias 248 AcuraF1 242 Grayson 80 Iranie 145 Wander 107 Kingshark 247 fisichella_2001 242 Iranie 80 Barty 138 M2000-5 106 Grayson 245 kismet 240 Wander 78 noikeee 136 Fastcake 101 Estwald 242 Brawn BGP 001 236 an1res 75 wattoroos 133 Bleu 100 HeidfeldsBeard 240 DutchQuicksilver234 Anderis 67 Brawn BGP 001 131 kismet 100 Barty 239 Wander 233 Fastcake 66 an1res 130 DutchQuicksilver 96 aray 238 Costaz 229 Apex 60 Apex 110 Kingshark 96 KWSN-DSM 238 Iranie 227 Costaz 57 Estwald 106 aray 95 Costaz 237 KWSN-DSM 225 LB 55 Anderis 104 mark f1 90 Iranie 227 Grayson 220 Wlleiotl 50 Fastcake 98 skylark68 89 mark f1 225 wattoroos 219 scheivlak 49 KWSN-DSM 80 Apex 70 d_view7 203 aray 206 KWSN-DSM 40 Wlleiotl 80 HeidfeldsBeard 62 an1res 160 an1res 200 * Current 39 M2000-5 76 Costaz 46 * Current 100 * Current 97 M2000-5 6 * Current 45 * Current 34
Ricciardo looks more and more a lock for a 100% surprise. We shoulda known RBR are too solid to stay on their preaseason form that was so worrying.
Nice race for Bottas!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Alonso Räikkönen Grosjean Perez Hülkenberg * Potential 399 * Potential 367 * Potential 354 * Potential 370 * Potential 387 M2000-5 278 M2000-5 267 mark f1 90 an1res 100 * Forecast 141 HeidfeldsBeard 256 d_view7 258 Grayson 77 skylark68 91 skylark68 122 aray 252 AcuraF1 215 Bleu 73 KWSN-DSM 90 KWSN-DSM 110 AcuraF1 235 Barty 204 wattoroos 71 Costaz 87 Makarias 110 an1res 225 Costaz 203 aray 67 Wlleiotl 80 Costaz 109 d_view7 222 Iranie 200 AcuraF1 64 Makarias 77 Kingshark 102 fisichella_2001 217 Wander 192 Anderis 63 * Forecast 76 an1res 100 LB 215 Fastcake 188 Estwald 62 Iranie 75 Estwald 98 Costaz 210 DutchQuicksilver179 an1res 60 Grayson 70 scheivlak 96 Fastcake 209 HeidfeldsBeard 178 HeidfeldsBeard 58 Kingshark 70 Anderis 94 Barty 204 Kingshark 177 d_view7 55 mark f1 70 Brawn BGP 001 92 Anderis 201 wattoroos 177 Wander 55 Anderis 68 fisichella_2001 92 DutchQuicksilver201 an1res 175 fisichella_2001 50 Brawn BGP 001 66 Grayson 92 Iranie 200 Bleu 171 Iranie 50 DutchQuicksilver 66 aray 90 kismet 200 LB 165 Brawn BGP 001 47 fisichella_2001 66 HeidfeldsBeard 88 wattoroos 196 Anderis 164 scheivlak 45 scheivlak 64 d_view7 85 Wander 195 KWSN-DSM 163 DutchQuicksilver 44 d_view7 63 mark f1 85 Bleu 194 Apex 160 Fastcake 43 Estwald 61 Fastcake 83 Brawn BGP 001 194 aray 160 noikeee 42 kismet 60 Wander 82 skylark68 192 Grayson 155 Apex 40 Wander 58 Wlleiotl 80 Apex 190 Makarias 153 kismet 40 wattoroos 56 Iranie 75 KWSN-DSM 190 scheivlak 152 Kingshark 33 Bleu 52 kismet 75 * Forecast 186 mark f1 150 Barty 30 HeidfeldsBeard 50 DutchQuicksilver 71 Grayson 184 Wlleiotl 150 skylark68 28 Apex 45 Apex 70 scheivlak 184 fisichella_2001 148 Makarias 21 AcuraF1 44 wattoroos 68 Makarias 183 skylark68 148 Wlleiotl 20 Fastcake 44 M2000-5 67 Kingshark 178 kismet 145 Costaz 17 M2000-5 43 noikeee 65 mark f1 175 Estwald 135 * Forecast 15 noikeee 43 Bleu 63 Wlleiotl 170 noikeee 121 KWSN-DSM 10 aray 30 AcuraF1 61 Estwald 162 Brawn BGP 001 111 LB 10 LB 25 LB 60 noikeee 162 * Forecast 65 * Current 4 Barty 24 Barty 42 * Current 49 * Current 17 M2000-5 2 * Current 20 * Current 37
Points at last for Grosjean! The Lotus season is bound to be a disappointment, but hopefully Romain can come away with it with his dignity intact.
Some encouraging signs from Kimi too.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Makarias 1604,0 20,8 skylark68 1563,0 -25,8 fisichella_2001 1555,4 -15,6 kismet 1542,0 2,0 Brawn BGP 001 1518,0 -28,5 noikeee 1510,4 -15,1 Bleu 1510,2 -22,1 scheivlak 1508,0 -11,3 d_view7 1502,2 3,2 AcuraF1 1498,8 37,1 mark f1 1493,2 1,0 Kingshark 1490,8 -22,5 Anderis 1489,6 -25,6 LB 1482,8 -19,2 DutchQuicksilver 1482,0 -19,0 HeidfeldsBeard 1466,0 -19,0 Grayson 1463,8 -24,7 aray 1462,0 -1,0 Iranie 1460,6 -10,6 Wander 1458,0 -33,3 wattoroos 1447,6 -22,6 Barty 1446,2 -18,1 Estwald 1440,8 -17,7 Apex 1439,0 -28,5 Wlleiotl 1414,0 -13,5 KWSN-DSM 1398,4 -35,6 M2000-5 1397,8 -23,7 Fastcake 1391,2 -36,1 Costaz 1388,0 -42,8 an1res 1366,4 -35,1
W00t!