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Driver of the Weekend Round 6 and 7 - Monaco - Romain Grosjean and Nico Rosberg


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#1 Apex

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Posted 16 May 2014 - 15:08

It's time for the Monaco GP and that means we have the first double round of the season and it also means that the deadline is on Thursday. The drivers of the weekend in Monaco are Romain Grosjean and Nico Rosberg. Grosjean and Lotus have had more than their fair share of problems earlier in the season, but last race looked a lot better for them. Will this trend continue, or will the Ghost of Crashes Past come back to haunt him. This is Monaco, after all.

 

Nico Rosberg and Mercedes, as you may have noticed, have had an excellent start to the season. And he won here last year as well. Will his success continue?

 

Questions

  1. How many laps will Romain complete in all the practice sessions combined?
  2. What will be Romain's qualifying position (before any penalties are applied)?
  3. What will be Romain's gap to to the fastest time in the last qualifying session he takes part in (rounded up to the nearest 0.1 second. If you think Romain will take pole, indicate the gap to second place as a negative value)?
  4. What will be Romain's finishing position in the race or, if you think he will retire from the race, how many laps will he complete (choose either finish or retirement, being classified counts as finishing the race)?
  5. How much slower than the outright fastest lap of the race will Romain's fastest lap be (rounded up to the nearest 0.1 second. If you think Romain will set the fastest lap, indicate the gap to second fastest as a negative value)?
  6. How many times will Romain visit the pit lane for any reason (tire change, penalty, driving into the pit to retire, etc.) during the race?

 

  1. How many laps will Nico complete in all the practice sessions combined?
  2. What will be Nico's qualifying position (before any penalties are applied)?
  3. What will be Nico's gap to to the fastest time in the last qualifying session he takes part in (rounded up to the nearest 0.1 second. If you think Nico will take pole, indicate the gap to second place as a negative value)?
  4. What will be Nico's finishing position in the race or, if you think he will retire from the race, how many laps will he complete (choose either finish or retirement, being classified counts as finishing the race)?
  5. How much slower than the outright fastest lap of the race will Nico's fastest lap be (rounded up to the nearest 0.1 second. If you think Nico will set the fastest lap, indicate the gap to second fastest as a negative value)?
  6. How many times will Nico visit the pit lane for any reason (tire change, penalty, driving into the pit to retire, etc.) during the race?

A small clarification about the rounding of times might be in order. Negative numbers are still rounded up, which means that e.g. -0.055 s becomes 0.0 s and -0.489 s becomes -0.4 s.

 

 

Scoring
 

A correct guess is worth 20 points and the minimum is 0 points. Fractional scores are rounded up. For incorrect guesses points are deducted in the following way:

 

Instead of the old system with predetermined deductions, I now calculate the deductions afterwards based on the standard deviations of our guesses and the difference between our averages and the correct results. I use the following formula:

 

H9RfHJL.png

 

What this means is that the deductions gets smaller when there is a big spread among the guesses and they are further reduced when the average is far away (more than 3.57 standard deviations) from the correct result. I'll still use the old system for the retirement alternative on question 4 (10 points if the driver actually retires, 10 points for correct lap, -0.5 points/lap, 0 points if the driver finishes the race), since that tends to attract few guesses and calculating the standard deviation for small samples can give undesirable results. This should result in a slightly more even points distribution between the questions.

 

Needless to say, you don't need to concern yourself about this formula, you can just keep playing as usual.
 

'And where, pray tell, do the numbers 17.5 and 3.57 come from?', I hear you ask. Well, I took all the data from the first four races and used this formula to calculate points deductions for them. Then I minimized the relative difference between the old and the new values by adjusting these two parameters and these were the values I came up with. 

 

 

Deadline

Before the first practice session. Late entries are now accepted but points will only be awarded for questions that are not related to sessions that have already begun when you submit your entry. So, for instance, submitting your entry after FP1 has started means an automatic 0 points on question 1.


Schedule

    Australian GP - Daniel Ricciardo
    Malaysian GP - Kevin Magnussen
    Bahrain GP - Nico Hülkenberg
    Chinese GP - Marcus Ericsson

    Spanish GP - Fernando Alonso
    Monaco GP - Romain Grosjean, Nico Rosberg
    Canadian GP - Esteban Gutierrez
    Austrian GP - Max Chilton
    British GP - Jenson Button
    German GP - Sebastian Vettel
    Hungarian GP - Valtteri Bottas
    Belgian GP - Adrian Suti
    Italian GP - Kimi Räikkönen
    Singapore GP - Jules Bianchi
    Japanese GP - Kamui Kobayashi
    Russian GP - Daniil Kvyat
    United States GP - Sergio Perez
    Brazilian GP - Felipe Massa, Pastor Maldonado
    Abu Dhabi GP - Lewis Hamilton, Jean-Eric Vergne


Entry Format

Please make your guesses look something like this (this is my entry for this round) and make sure that in question 4 you indicate clearly whether you think he will finish the race or retire. I will interpret any unclear submissions on question 4 as to mean the driver will finish the race whenever such an interpretation is possible.

 

Grosjean:

 

63

9th

1.7

8th

1.9

2

 

Rosberg:

 

81

2nd

0.2

2nd

-0.1

2



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#2 LB

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 19:14

Gros

64

7th

1.8

6th 

1.3

2

 

Rosb

75

2nd

0.2

2nd

0.1

2



#3 scheivlak

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 14:48

Gros

45

8th

1.3

RET lap 34

1.8

1

 

Rosb

56

1st

0.0

1st

0.2

2



#4 Wlleiotl

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 21:19

Grosjean

75

11th

+2.5s

12th

+3.0s

3

 

Rosberg

75

2nd

+0.2s

2nd

+0.4s

3

 



#5 Mekola

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 01:13

Grosjean:

 

62

10th

1.5

10th

1.8

2

 

Rosberg:

 

79

1st

0.1

1st

-0.2

2



#6 wattoroos

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 08:24

Gro

1. 65

2. 9

3. 1.8

4. 8

5. 1.5

6. 2

 

Ros

1. 75

2. 2

3. 0.2

4. 2

5. 0.1

6. 2



#7 Costaz

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 11:00

Grosjean

    1. 71
    2. 12
    3. 1.3
    4. 11
    5. 2.9
    6. 3
 

Rosberg

    1. 66
    2. 3
    3. 0.4
    4. 2
    5. -0.1
    6. 3



#8 mark f1

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 11:35

The only bit of the above I understood Apex was 

 

Needless to say, you don't need to concern yourself about this formula, you can just keep playing as usual.

 

So, thats what I do....

 

Grosjean

74

8

1.9

6

2.4

2

 

Rosberg

78

2

0.3

2

0.6

2



#9 Makarias

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 17:23

Grosjean

54

11

1.5 s

9th

1.8 s

2

 

Rosberg

49

2

0.2 s

2nd

0.1 s

2



#10 2aron

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 18:15

Grosjean

58

6

2.1

retire 30 laps

2.9

1

 

Rosberg

69

3

0.2

2

-0.1

2



#11 Barty

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 19:38

Grosjean

72

12th

2,2 secs

55 laps

1,9 secs

2 times

 

Rosberg

82

1st

-0,2 secs

1st

-0,1 secs

3 times



#12 Sheepmachine

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 21:11

Grosjean
54
12th
1.2 secs
45 laps
+1.1 secs
2 stops

Rosberg
78
1st
-0.1sec
2nd
+0.1secs
2 times

Edited by Sheepmachine, 21 May 2014 - 21:14.


#13 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 01:32

Romain Grosjean

  1. 62
  2. 7th
  3. 1.2 secs
  4. 8th
  5. 1.4 secs
  6. 1 time

Nico Rosberg

  1. 71
  2. 2nd
  3. 0.3 secs
  4. 2nd
  5. - 0.2 secs
  6. twice


#14 Estwald

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 02:02

Grosjean

1. 50

2. 13

3. 1.4

4. 11

5. 1.5

6. 2

 

Rosberg

1. 58

2. 1

3. -0.1

4. 1

5. -0.2

6. 2



#15 kismet

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 04:33

Grosjean:

  1. 70
  2. 8
  3. 1.7
  4. 9
  5. 1.7
  6. 2

 

Rosberg:

  1. 70
  2. 1
  3. 0
  4. 1
  5. 0.2
  6. 2


#16 M2000-5

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 05:34

Romain:

  1. 63
  2. 12
  3. +2.4
  4. 10
  5. +1.9
  6. 3

Rosberg:

  1. 72
  2. 2
  3. +0.1
  4. 2
  5. -0.1
  6. 2


#17 Bleu

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 07:07

RoGro

  1. 62
  2. 9th
  3. 1,9 seconds
  4. 8th
  5. 2,3 seconds
  6. Two

 

Nico

  1. 76
  2. 2nd
  3. 0,4 seconds
  4. 2nd
  5. 0,3 seconds
  6. Two

Edited by Bleu, 22 May 2014 - 07:09.


#18 Grayson

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 07:42

Grosjean

1. 60

2. 9th

3. 1.1

4. 9th

5. 1.8

6. 2

 

Rosberg

1. 75

2. 2nd

3. 0.3

4. 2nd

5. 0.2

6. 2