The standings after Monaco:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) an1res 606 101 = Anderis 606 101 = Apex 606 101 = Bleu 606 101 = Brawn BGP 001 606 101 = DutchQuicksilver 606 101 = Estwald 606 101 = Fastcake 606 101 = fisichella_2001 606 101 = Grayson 606 101 = Kingshark 606 101 = LB 606 101 = mark f1 606 101 = noikeee 606 101 = wattoroos 606 101 16) Wander 605 100 17) aray 604 99 = Costaz 604 99 = kismet 604 99 = Makarias 604 99 21) HeidfeldsBeard 603 99 = Iranie 603 101 23) Wlleiotl 602 97 24) d_view7 601 100 = scheivlak 601 96 26) AcuraF1 600 99 = skylark68 600 99 28) Barty 596 94 29) KWSN-DSM 592 87 30) M2000-5 546 81
Thanks to Bianchi the number of perfect scores dropped by one third! Yeehaa!
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 64,9 39,7 4 Hülk 55,8 38,2 1 Rosb 49,4 41,1 0 Hami 45,7 32,7 0 Bian 45,1 7,7 11 Kvya 35,8 11,1 6 Pere 32,6 19,8 0 Vett 30,4 22,0 0 Alon 30,1 21,9 0 Bott 29,7 19,9 0 Verg 27,8 9,8 1 Butt 20,2 13,0 0 Magn 17,7 12,1 0 Gros 17,6 8,8 1 Mass 14,5 8,8 0 Räik 9,9 6,3 0
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Rosberg Hamilton Ricciardo Alonso Hülkenberg * Potential 447 * Potential 443 * Potential 379 * Potential 386 * Potential 372 * Forecast 386 * Forecast 374 * Forecast 171 M2000-5 278 * Forecast 149 M2000-5 296 M2000-5 360 kismet 135 HeidfeldsBeard 256 skylark68 122 Barty 292 Apex 324 aray 132 aray 252 KWSN-DSM 110 noikeee 271 LB 320 Makarias 131 AcuraF1 235 Makarias 110 Apex 270 noikeee 298 mark f1 125 an1res 225 Costaz 109 Wlleiotl 270 Brawn BGP 001 284 d_view7 124 d_view7 222 Kingshark 102 HeidfeldsBeard 268 Bleu 280 AcuraF1 111 fisichella_2001 217 an1res 100 Estwald 266 AcuraF1 275 DutchQuicksilver102 LB 215 Estwald 98 skylark68 265 fisichella_2001 275 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Costaz 210 scheivlak 96 Bleu 255 kismet 270 Barty 92 Fastcake 209 Anderis 94 Makarias 255 Anderis 268 skylark68 89 Barty 204 Brawn BGP 001 92 Anderis 254 skylark68 268 Brawn BGP 001 88 Anderis 201 fisichella_2001 92 scheivlak 254 Wander 265 Bleu 87 DutchQuicksilver201 Grayson 92 LB 250 scheivlak 258 noikeee 87 Iranie 200 aray 90 Kingshark 248 wattoroos 255 Estwald 84 kismet 200 HeidfeldsBeard 88 Fastcake 246 Fastcake 252 fisichella_2001 83 wattoroos 196 d_view7 85 d_view7 245 Wlleiotl 250 wattoroos 82 Wander 195 mark f1 85 mark f1 245 DutchQuicksilver248 Kingshark 81 Bleu 194 Fastcake 83 AcuraF1 242 Makarias 248 Grayson 80 Brawn BGP 001 194 Wander 82 fisichella_2001 242 Kingshark 247 Iranie 80 * Forecast 193 Wlleiotl 80 kismet 240 Grayson 245 Wander 78 skylark68 192 Iranie 75 Brawn BGP 001 236 Estwald 242 an1res 75 Apex 190 kismet 75 DutchQuicksilver234 HeidfeldsBeard 240 Anderis 67 KWSN-DSM 190 DutchQuicksilver 71 Wander 233 Barty 239 Fastcake 66 Grayson 184 Apex 70 Costaz 229 aray 238 Apex 60 scheivlak 184 wattoroos 68 Iranie 227 KWSN-DSM 238 Costaz 57 Makarias 183 M2000-5 67 KWSN-DSM 225 Costaz 237 LB 55 Kingshark 178 noikeee 65 Grayson 220 Iranie 227 * Current 54 mark f1 175 Bleu 63 wattoroos 219 mark f1 225 Wlleiotl 50 Wlleiotl 170 AcuraF1 61 aray 206 d_view7 203 scheivlak 49 Estwald 162 LB 60 an1res 200 an1res 160 KWSN-DSM 40 noikeee 162 * Current 47 * Current 122 * Current 118 M2000-5 6 * Current 61 Barty 42
Ricciardo takes a few more names and Hülk beats his first one.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Button Massa Grosjean Bianchi Magnussen * Potential 356 * Potential 343 * Potential 333 * Potential 327 * Potential 346 Costaz 238 M2000-5 203 mark f1 90 Wlleiotl 25 Kingshark 173 Barty 237 Wlleiotl 200 Grayson 77 KWSN-DSM 19 Wander 165 Apex 230 Estwald 180 Bleu 73 an1res 10 KWSN-DSM 160 Brawn BGP 001 224 KWSN-DSM 169 wattoroos 71 mark f1 10 Brawn BGP 001 154 Fastcake 221 noikeee 169 aray 67 scheivlak 9 Costaz 154 LB 200 wattoroos 153 AcuraF1 64 Bleu 8 Apex 150 Estwald 177 DutchQuicksilver142 Anderis 63 wattoroos 7 scheivlak 149 Wander 171 Iranie 140 Estwald 62 * Forecast 6 Fastcake 147 scheivlak 162 kismet 140 an1res 60 Anderis 6 Estwald 146 KWSN-DSM 160 LB 140 HeidfeldsBeard 58 Grayson 6 Barty 135 noikeee 155 AcuraF1 133 d_view7 55 Apex 5 HeidfeldsBeard 132 Kingshark 151 aray 130 Wander 55 fisichella_2001 4 Wlleiotl 120 Wlleiotl 150 Makarias 126 fisichella_2001 50 Iranie 4 noikeee 119 skylark68 149 Fastcake 121 Iranie 50 Kingshark 4 DutchQuicksilver118 DutchQuicksilver146 an1res 120 Brawn BGP 001 47 DutchQuicksilver 3 aray 115 Makarias 146 Anderis 119 scheivlak 45 * Current 2 Makarias 114 HeidfeldsBeard 145 Costaz 119 DutchQuicksilver 44 Brawn BGP 001 2 Anderis 112 kismet 145 mark f1 115 Fastcake 43 Estwald 2 kismet 110 aray 140 scheivlak 113 noikeee 42 Fastcake 2 LB 110 M2000-5 140 Grayson 105 Apex 40 LB 2 Bleu 107 Grayson 125 skylark68 102 kismet 40 noikeee 2 fisichella_2001 102 Iranie 125 Brawn BGP 001 100 Kingshark 33 d_view7 1 wattoroos 102 wattoroos 119 fisichella_2001 100 Barty 30 M2000-5 1 d_view7 101 mark f1 115 Kingshark 94 skylark68 28 Wander 1 an1res 100 fisichella_2001 113 Apex 90 * Forecast 25 AcuraF1 0 Grayson 100 Anderis 112 d_view7 85 Makarias 21 aray 0 skylark68 100 Bleu 110 Wander 82 Wlleiotl 20 Barty 0 Iranie 80 d_view7 110 Bleu 80 Costaz 17 Costaz 0 mark f1 75 an1res 100 HeidfeldsBeard 76 KWSN-DSM 10 HeidfeldsBeard 0 * Forecast 67 * Forecast 98 Barty 70 LB 10 kismet 0 AcuraF1 62 AcuraF1 79 * Forecast 57 * Current 8 Makarias 0 M2000-5 55 * Current 31 * Current 18 M2000-5 2 skylark68 0 * Current 21
Jules will have a hard time to reach a 100% surprise at 26 points. The McLarens have been disappointing after Melbourne. Grosjean's form curve is improving and interesting.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Makarias 1549,0 -55,0 skylark68 1539,7 -23,3 kismet 1532,5 -9,5 fisichella_2001 1528,8 -26,6 Brawn BGP 001 1523,3 5,3 Bleu 1504,5 -5,7 noikeee 1497,8 -12,6 scheivlak 1486,3 -21,7 Kingshark 1483,7 -7,1 Anderis 1483,3 -6,3 mark f1 1483,3 -9,9 d_view7 1475,2 -27,0 DutchQuicksilver 1471,5 -10,5 Wander 1470,5 12,5 Grayson 1466,7 2,9 AcuraF1 1466,2 -32,6 Apex 1459,8 20,8 HeidfeldsBeard 1456,5 -9,5 LB 1453,8 -29,0 aray 1450,2 -11,8 wattoroos 1446,3 -1,3 Iranie 1442,8 -17,8 Barty 1442,3 -3,9 Estwald 1441,5 0,7 M2000-5 1417,2 19,4 Fastcake 1409,7 18,5 Wlleiotl 1392,8 -21,2 Costaz 1380,5 -7,5 KWSN-DSM 1371,2 -27,2 an1res 1361,7 -4,7
Largely negative trend. I'm not quite sure how I could lose so much ground...