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Sebastian Vettel vs Daniel Ricciardo 2014 part II


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#3701 GhostR

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:02

I agree that for both, the chances are slim.  Very, very slim...

 

However, perhaps someone here who enjoyed stats at Uni (I didn't) might care to do a proper analysis.  My "back of the envelope" calculations suggest Dan's chances are (statistically) an order of magnitude better than Seb's, so in a sport where you always run with the highest probability decisions, their argument is in fact, way more ridiculous than simply backing Dan.

 

As I said earlier, I don't want them to impose team orders, but they should at least be honest about their reasoning.

 

I haven't work out the statistical probabilities, but I have worked out what the numbers actually look like in terms of what each of them would need to do in order to get to the final race and still be in with a shot at the title. You can find it here: http://forums.autosp...matical-chance/

 

Boils down to Ricciardo needs some 'help' from the Mercedes team (in terms of both Rosberg and Hamilton having some more DNFs), but Vettel needs an outright miracle. Ricciardo needs to gain 11 points vs the WDC leader in the next 4 races, while Vettel needs to gain

 

Playing with some hypothetical scenarios that look plausible based on how the season has progressed so far, let's assume that from the next four races each driver gets:

 

Scenario 1:

(IMO the most likely, however with a strong element of chance in that it assumes the Mercs both DNF the same race - Hamilton has won the most races, while Rosberg is slightly edging Ricciardo except when DNFs come into play)

 

Hamilton - 2x wins, 1x 2nd, 1x DNF - 68 points

Rosberg - 1x win, 2x 2nd, 1x DNF - 61 points

Ricciardo - 1x win (the race the Merc boys DNF), 3x 3rd - 70 points

 

This scenario leaves Ricciardo out of the hunt for the WDC but still in with a chance at beating Rosberg to 2nd. Vettel would have been long since out. The 3 points RBR decided not to give Ricciardo at Singapore are irrelevant.

 

Scenario 2: 

(Rosberg and Hamilton straight swap)

 

Hamilton - 1x wins, 1x 2nd, 1x DNF - 61 points

Rosberg - 2x win, 2x 2nd, 1x DNF - 68 points

Ricciardo - 1x win (the race the Merc boys DNF), 3x 3rd - 70 points

 

Again, this scenario means Ricciardo can't steal the WDC as he'd be too far behind. I haven't checked precisely (not got my spreadsheet with me as I'm at work), but again I think the Singapore 3 points are irrelevant.

 

Scenario 3:

(Hamilton same as scenario 1, but this time we've got an element of Rosberg folding under the title pressure and handing some points to Ricciardo)

 

Hamilton - 2x wins, 1x 2nd, 1x DNF - 68 points

Rosberg - 1x win, 1x 3rd, 2x DNF - 68 points

Ricciardo - 1x win (the race the Merc boys DNF), 3x 2nd - 79 points

 

This scenario means Ricciardo would be 49 points behind Hamilton going into the final race. Hamilton scores no points, and Rosberg has a bad day ... Ricciardo wins the race. The world implodes. And again, the Singapore 3 points are irrelevant.

 

What this all boils done to for me is that I very much doubt Red Bull will have any regrets over the 3 points Ricciardo could have had extra out of Singapore. What they are far more likely to regret is the points they could have had out of Australia. Let's for sake of being conservative assume that Red Bull's calculations that he would not have finished 3rd but rather been a bit deeper in the pack are true. For sake of simplicity, give him 10 points for Australia. That's huge, as it makes scenario 1 above a scenario in which Ricciardo goes into the last race still with a title shot (a slim one, but a shot nevertheless).


Edited by GhostR, 25 September 2014 - 11:03.


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#3702 skc

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:10

Yeah. That Australia "result" in hindsight was a huge, huge blow to Dans title chances.

Would have been some story.

#3703 goingthedistance

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:18

Losing 10 or 12 points in Malaysia didn't help either. 



#3704 GhostR

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:19

Yeah. That Australia "result" in hindsight was a huge, huge blow to Dans title chances.

Would have been some story.

 

Throw in the Malaysia debacle (and subsequent follow-up grid penalty) and damn ... I think 25 points lost all up from the opening 3 races would be a conservative estimate, and that would put him firmly in the hunt at just 35 points behind Hamilton.


Edited by GhostR, 25 September 2014 - 11:20.


#3705 DILLIGAF

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:23

Losing 10 or 12 points in Malaysia didn't help either.


Yup. Add 18 points for Australia and 12 points for Malaysia and Dan would right in the hunt. A real pity.

#3706 MetallurgicalHedonist

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:27

Throw in the Malaysia debacle (and subsequent follow-up grid penalty) and damn ... I think 25 points lost all up from the opening 3 races would be a conservative estimate, and that would put him firmly in the hunt at just 35 points behind Hamilton.


Yes, and then throw in the 70-80 points Hamilton lost in Australia and Montreal and Spa and Hungary and Hockenheim because of starting from the last grid position.

#3707 goingthedistance

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:32

Yes, and then throw in the 70-80 points Hamilton lost in Australia and Montreal and Spa and Hungary and Hockenheim because of starting from the last grid position.

 


Those were reliability issues weren't they? We're talking about a highly dubious FIA disqualification in Melbourne and a team pit-stop error in Malaysia, not to mention a highly controversial 10 place grid penalty in Bahrain (I believe they have or are going to change the rule on the way retirements and pit-lane related penalties interact). 



#3708 Thomas99

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:43

Yes, and then throw in the 70-80 points Hamilton lost in Australia and Montreal and Spa and Hungary and Hockenheim because of starting from the last grid position.


Well of course the dominant car will win minutes reliablity gremlins

#3709 GhostR

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:43

 

Those were reliability issues weren't they? We're talking about a highly dubious FIA disqualification in Melbourne and a team pit-stop error in Malaysia, not to mention a highly controversial 10 place grid penalty in Bahrain (I believe they have or are going to change the rule on the way retirements and pit-lane related penalties interact). 

 

 

Ricciardo was the first driver to be hit with the "tyre not fitted" double-whammy penalties, and Gutierrez should be the second and last. From memory after Gutierrez copped it it was announced that the follow up grid penalty would be removed for future.

 

Looking back at it all, the DSQ in Australia I think was fair. Red Bull played a risky game assuming they were unlikely to be in a position to fight for a WDC/WCC given the situation with the Renault engine. At the time they would have been thinking along the lines of Benefit = getting an early jump in points that could prove important for the WCC, Risk = losing a few points but knowing it would be unlikely to affect WDC chances. Part of that thinking will have included that they were not expecting Ricciardo to be so consistently better than Vettel this year, and that therefore the risk to Dan's WDC hopes was minimal. How wrong that turned out in hindsight.

 

For Malaysia, I think it's fair to call that as being a reliability thing. However, I wouldn't call it a 100% reliability thing. It's unfortunate that the FIA painted themselves into a corner with regards penalising that incident as a result of hard-coding the penalty into the rulebook. Realistically, by the letter of the rulebook the stewards made the right decision. But any reasonable person would have given a far more lenient decision on penalty given the choice to do so, given that Ricciardo pulled the car up so quickly that there was never any real danger. It's plausible that in previous years he could have rejoined and been in a position to score points from that race, rather than being retired to save the power unit components.



#3710 goingthedistance

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:47

Ricciardo was the first driver to be hit with the "tyre not fitted" double-whammy penalties, and Gutierrez should be the second and last. From memory after Gutierrez copped it it was announced that the follow up grid penalty would be removed for future.

 

Looking back at it all, the DSQ in Australia I think was fair. Red Bull played a risky game assuming they were unlikely to be in a position to fight for a WDC/WCC given the situation with the Renault engine. At the time they would have been thinking along the lines of Benefit = getting an early jump in points that could prove important for the WCC, Risk = losing a few points but knowing it would be unlikely to affect WDC chances. Part of that thinking will have included that they were not expecting Ricciardo to be so consistently better than Vettel this year, and that therefore the risk to Dan's WDC hopes was minimal. How wrong that turned out in hindsight.

 

For Malaysia, I think it's fair to call that as being a reliability thing. However, I wouldn't call it a 100% reliability thing. It's unfortunate that the FIA painted themselves into a corner with regards penalising that incident as a result of hard-coding the penalty into the rulebook. Realistically, by the letter of the rulebook the stewards made the right decision. But any reasonable person would have given a far more lenient decision on penalty given the choice to do so, given that Ricciardo pulled the car up so quickly that there was never any real danger. It's plausible that in previous years he could have rejoined and been in a position to score points from that race, rather than being retired to save the power unit components.

 

I'm not sure I'd call incorrectly fitting a tyre a reliability issue, more of a team error, but the subsequent front wing failure perhaps so. Those early results with Dan all felt very avoidable to me compared to worn out components, but perhaps that's just my bias leaking through. 



#3711 bub

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 12:35

I don't care about the team orders thing, but I'm amazed people think Dan has hardly a chance at the title. With the double points, mercs reliability and the infighting he has more than a slender chance!

 

I expect Ricciardo will be mathematically out of it before Abu Dhabi which is a shame as he has driven really well. If only Renault (and Ferrari) hadn't done such an inferior job on the PU...



#3712 HoldenRT

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 09:35

Yup. Add 18 points for Australia and 12 points for Malaysia and Dan would right in the hunt. A real pity.

 

Mercedes fought really hard for Dan to get that penalty too, they went to court and seemed most concerned of all parties in terms of wanting RBR/Dan to be penalised.  It would have seemed crazy at the time, to suggest that it could have been a role in the championship and Merc being worried.. given their cars pace since the winter.  I find this quite ironic in the last few months as the points gap as drawn closer.  Dan has as many wins as Nico.  And (while unlikely) if Dan finishes within 10 points of the WDC for example.. it'll be a very bittersweet thing.

 

People said some silly things at the time, but looking back in hindsight it's pretty obvious to see he wouldn't have gained much advantage.  The car was still quick in the following races despite no longer "cheating", and it always seemed at the time to me to be more about Horner and Redbull being stubborn about the "principle of the thing" rather than any big advantage.  How could it be a big advantage if using more fuel flow will mean that you have less fuel, with the limited fuel loads?  Crazy.  To gain in one moment of the race (boosting) you lose in another (fuel saving).  The more you boost in one part, the more you lose in another.  There was no key moment of the race where he suddenly needed purple sectors to maintain position (that I can remember).  You'd probably gain more by straight lining chicanes, sort of like Alonso did in turn 1 at Singapore in terms of maintaining position.

 

Anyways.. as the later part of the season showed, it wasn't like he had a dog car and suddenly boosted more and got a lucky podium.  It was one of many, and then later race wins.  And that was the first race, no one could have imagined that the points could be so close at this time.. but I always wondered why Redbull were so stubborn or eager to fight it.  But it's done now.

 

It just find it all so ironic given how the season has turned out.  Those points probably won't matter anyway but if they do.. it'll be a bit strange.  I also find it strange for Horner to say that thinking of the WDC is "wishful thinking".  Because you would have thought that in the winter.. to have the points as they are right now.. yet.. hear we are.  It probably is wishful thinking, but I don't understand downplaying it.  The aim should be to try to be within 50 points into the final race, and then just hope for some luck.  I guess all of this.. I can conclude by saying that if Redbull thought more longterm in that first place.. and could see being in this position, they might not have wanted to take that chance in Melbourne by thumbing their nose at the fuel regs and being stubborn about it.  It's bugged me all season, but always forget to mention it.  Someone else mentioned it, giving a chance to whinge about it.

 

None of this has anything to do with team orders btw.  Just with valuing every point and thinking that you have a chance (even if it's small).  You'd feel stupid if those points you didn't value end up being the ones that you lose by.



#3713 tghik

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 09:45

Joke about it all you like, Helmut was running around with Vettel back when he was 15, that relationship matters.

 

I'm sure Dan is getting technical parity, but as with Webber all of the emotional support remains with Vettel, based on recent comments from Marko and Horner. One wonders how Helmut will cope when Seb decides to move to a new team, as he will eventually.  :lol:

For moi the real question is how Vettel will cope when he loses his back. Marko is one of the top influential people on the high decision making level, for example playing with so many chassis would not be possible without Helmut



#3714 skc

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 09:49

For moi the real question is how Vettel will cope when he loses his back. Marko is one of the top influential people on the high decision making level, for example playing with so many chassis would not be possible without Helmut

 

I suspect Seb would cope just fine without Helmut...at another team  :cool:



#3715 bonjon1979a

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 09:54

Mercedes fought really hard for Dan to get that penalty too, they went to court and seemed most concerned of all parties in terms of wanting RBR/Dan to be penalised.  It would have seemed crazy at the time, to suggest that it could have been a role in the championship and Merc being worried.. given their cars pace since the winter.  I find this quite ironic in the last few months as the points gap as drawn closer.  Dan has as many wins as Nico.  And (while unlikely) if Dan finishes within 10 points of the WDC for example.. it'll be a very bittersweet thing.

 

People said some silly things at the time, but looking back in hindsight it's pretty obvious to see he wouldn't have gained much advantage.  The car was still quick in the following races despite no longer "cheating", and it always seemed at the time to me to be more about Horner and Redbull being stubborn about the "principle of the thing" rather than any big advantage.  How could it be a big advantage if using more fuel flow will mean that you have less fuel, with the limited fuel loads?  Crazy.  To gain in one moment of the race (boosting) you lose in another (fuel saving).  The more you boost in one part, the more you lose in another.  There was no key moment of the race where he suddenly needed purple sectors to maintain position (that I can remember).  You'd probably gain more by straight lining chicanes, sort of like Alonso did in turn 1 at Singapore in terms of maintaining position.

 

Anyways.. as the later part of the season showed, it wasn't like he had a dog car and suddenly boosted more and got a lucky podium.  It was one of many, and then later race wins.  And that was the first race, no one could have imagined that the points could be so close at this time.. but I always wondered why Redbull were so stubborn or eager to fight it.  But it's done now.

 

It just find it all so ironic given how the season has turned out.  Those points probably won't matter anyway but if they do.. it'll be a bit strange.  I also find it strange for Horner to say that thinking of the WDC is "wishful thinking".  Because you would have thought that in the winter.. to have the points as they are right now.. yet.. hear we are.  It probably is wishful thinking, but I don't understand downplaying it.  The aim should be to try to be within 50 points into the final race, and then just hope for some luck.  I guess all of this.. I can conclude by saying that if Redbull thought more longterm in that first place.. and could see being in this position, they might not have wanted to take that chance in Melbourne by thumbing their nose at the fuel regs and being stubborn about it.  It's bugged me all season, but always forget to mention it.  Someone else mentioned it, giving a chance to whinge about it.

 

None of this has anything to do with team orders btw.  Just with valuing every point and thinking that you have a chance (even if it's small).  You'd feel stupid if those points you didn't value end up being the ones that you lose by.

Well, Daniel's scored one less win than Rosberg. And I think Merc were so keen to have Daniel lose points primarily as they saw it as a major problem moving forwards. If teams are able to cheat the fuel flow then their in built advantage of the power unit will be diminished. I also think that it was a bit of payback for Red Bull's attitude at the tyre test case but there you go. I agree that it was strategically very strange of them to ignore the advice from the FIA to reduce the fuel flow, they were never going to get away with it.



#3716 grichka

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 09:58

I suspect Seb would cope just fine without Helmut...at another team  :cool:

Helmut doesn't care. He is in love with Verstappen now ;)



#3717 skc

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 10:01

Well, Daniel's scored one less win than Rosberg. And I think Merc were so keen to have Daniel lose points primarily as they saw it as a major problem moving forwards. If teams are able to cheat the fuel flow then their in built advantage of the power unit will be diminished. I also think that it was a bit of payback for Red Bull's attitude at the tyre test case but there you go. I agree that it was strategically very strange of them to ignore the advice from the FIA to reduce the fuel flow, they were never going to get away with it.

 

Redbull were coming off an utterly dominant last half decade, so their arrogance was off the charts at the time. In hindsight, this is what may have cost them a title challenge this year.



#3718 skc

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 10:02

Helmut doesn't care. He is in love with Verstappen now ;)

 

Yes, I think I saw him claiming Max reminds him of Senna. High, high praise indeed. I'll be following this kid.



#3719 bonjon1979a

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 10:12

Redbull were coming off an utterly dominant last half decade, so their arrogance was off the charts at the time. In hindsight, this is what may have cost them a title challenge this year.

I think this is a little deluded. They were never going to challenge for the title this year. Fifty points with a quarter of the season to go is a huge margin and that's only going to grow over the next few races. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner of the WDC finishes over a hundred points ahead of Daniel. They were never going to be able to challenge this year, even with MErc's reliability meltdowns, they're still over fifty points behind.



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#3720 skc

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 10:17

I think this is a little deluded. They were never going to challenge for the title this year. Fifty points with a quarter of the season to go is a huge margin and that's only going to grow over the next few races. I wouldn't be surprised if the winner of the WDC finishes over a hundred points ahead of Daniel. They were never going to be able to challenge this year, even with MErc's reliability meltdowns, they're still over fifty points behind.

 

What I mean is that those points lost would have have given Merc something to think about out. Right now Dan is almost completely out of the running, but add the points lost due to Redbull arrogance and I think he would have been less of a long shot.



#3721 bonjon1979a

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 10:23

What I mean is that those points lost would have have given Merc something to think about out. Right now Dan is almost completely out of the running, but add the points lost due to Redbull arrogance and I think he would have been less of a long shot.

Ah, clearly. That's true. It'd be just over one race win  behind, wouldn't it.



#3722 Jimisgod

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 10:38

Helmut doesn't care. He is in love with Verstappen now ;)

 

There's a joke in there about Helmet and his ever changing young male objects of affection...

 

...but I'm not going to get banned for it.



#3723 apoka

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 11:38

Helmut doesn't care. He is in love with Verstappen now ;)

 

+1 

 

It will be difficult for both Vettel and Ricciardo to be in a team with Verstappen & Helmut if that should happen at any point in the future.



#3724 Thomas99

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 11:57

What I mean is that those points lost would have have given Merc something to think about out. Right now Dan is almost completely out of the running, but add the points lost due to Redbull arrogance and I think he would have been less of a long shot.

 

Do you think Seb would prefer to see Dan win or the Merc pair? While everyone hates losing to their team mate, the title of him going against a world champion would kind of level that out.



#3725 skc

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Posted 26 September 2014 - 12:12

Do you think Seb would prefer to see Dan win or the Merc pair? While everyone hates losing to their team mate, the title of him going against a world champion would kind of level that out.

 

I think Seb has proven time and again this year that he has a fondness and genuine respect for Daniel Ricciardo.

 

Also, Dan winning in that car would mean that the car is still capable of great things, which would fill Seb with confidence for next season as well.

 

In a nutshell, I think it would be a little bittersweet for Seb to see Dan lift the championship trophy, but I doubt very much he would ever begrudge Dan his first ever WDC. Afterall, he himself was Dan once.


Edited by skc, 26 September 2014 - 12:13.


#3726 bourbon

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Posted 28 September 2014 - 02:49

Sebastian telling it like it is in his conversation with Martin

 



#3727 skc

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Posted 28 September 2014 - 07:47

That's a brilliant interview. Thanks for the link

#3728 Obi Offiah

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Posted 28 September 2014 - 08:33

Sebastian telling it like it is in his conversation with Martin

 

Fantastic interview, the best I can recall in a very very long time!  No fluff, no talking about what Seb did in his spare time after Monza, no talking about how he feels about life or his impressions about Singapore and its night life, just pure unadulterated Formula One.

 

Cheers bourbon.



#3729 lbennie

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Posted 28 September 2014 - 10:38

that ferrari nod at 0:25



#3730 NoDivergence

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Posted 28 September 2014 - 14:12

Hey Sebastian, you don't have the downforce you had for the rest of the years.  You need to learn with that.  Take a look around at some of the other drivers.  



#3731 DILLIGAF

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Posted 28 September 2014 - 16:51

People said some silly things at the time, but looking back in hindsight it's pretty obvious to see he wouldn't have gained much advantage.  The car was still quick in the following races despite no longer "cheating", and it always seemed at the time to me to be more about Horner and Redbull being stubborn about the "principle of the thing" rather than any big advantage.


I agree. Horner and RBR's stubbornness and arrogant behaviour over the full flow metre at Melbourne might, just might, come back to haunt them.

#3732 Brazzers

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Posted Yesterday, 06:46

Hey Sebastian, you don't have the downforce you had for the rest of the years.  You need to learn with that.  Take a look around at some of the other drivers.  

 

This.  :up:

 

This season hasn't done much for his reputation. The car not suiting me and all that nonsense is just pure excuses, no one in F1 always has the best and dominant car.  I think this season has it made it clear Vettel isn't as good as he was made out to be nor is he potentially as good as some of the other current WDCs. 



#3733 Fontainebleau

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Posted Yesterday, 08:18

This.  :up:

 

This season hasn't done much for his reputation. The car not suiting me and all that nonsense is just pure excuses, no one in F1 always has the best and dominant car.  I think this season has it made it clear Vettel isn't as good as he was made out to be nor is he potentially as good as some of the other current WDCs. 

 

Everybody is entitled to a year off. I agree that this season hasn't been the most flattering for Vettel's reputation, but let's wait before we pass any permanent judgement on both Vettel and his teammate (if Ricciardo turns out to be an extraordinary talent in F1, Vettel's performance this season will be seen in a different light, don't you think?).



#3734 skc

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Posted Yesterday, 08:21

The irony of it all is that Ricciardo might just be a boon to Sebs reputation if Seb gets it together for next season.

 

Because then the "hasn't faced a strong teammate" criticism would have to be put to bed.

 

But that's if and only if Seb manages to improve next season.



#3735 Fontainebleau

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Posted Yesterday, 08:33

That is also true. Let's wait and see, this year's titles are all but decided in Mercedes's favour so, in a sense and given how strong MERC has been, no harm done (in terms of titles) by having this season not being a particularly strong one.  



#3736 gruntguru

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Posted Today, 00:42

People said some silly things at the time, but looking back in hindsight it's pretty obvious to see he wouldn't have gained much advantage.  The car was still quick in the following races despite no longer "cheating". . . .

Which points to the probability that they weren't "cheating" in the sense of exceeding the 100 l/hr peak fuel flow. There was no point to their stubbornness unless they actually believed the flow meter was giving high readings.

 

My take on the technical side of that dispute - there should be a means of confirming the FFM readings. Wy not integrate the readings over the entire race to calculate the total fuel used and compare that to an accurately weighed "actual fuel used"?



#3737 Afterburner

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Posted Today, 02:17

My take on the technical side of that dispute - there should be a means of confirming the FFM readings. Wy not integrate the readings over the entire race to calculate the total fuel used and compare that to an accurately weighed "actual fuel used"?

Because the FIA is full of lawyers, not engineers. :p

#3738 Brazzers

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Posted Today, 02:21

The irony of it all is that Ricciardo might just be a boon to Sebs reputation if Seb gets it together for next season.

 

Because then the "hasn't faced a strong teammate" criticism would have to be put to bed.

 

But that's if and only if Seb manages to improve next season.

 

Ricciardo might be the Hamilton that was to Alonso. Alonso's reputation i think gained after that as Lewis went onto win the championship. 

 

Same might happen to Vettel too.



#3739 Fontainebleau

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Posted Today, 07:53

Dear all, no baiting, please - I removed a couple of posts that were clearly rubbing salt in some wounds. No need for that if we are to have a constructive and amicable discussion, don't you think?



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#3740 Avastrol

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Posted Today, 09:20

:rotfl: at 15:03 in bourbon's link. He is disrespectful of his elders



#3741 Brother Fox

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Posted Today, 09:24

Dear all, no baiting, please - I removed a couple of posts that were clearly rubbing salt in some wounds. No need for that if we are to have a constructive and amicable discussion, don't you think?


Although it's a question and I should comment, I am not allowed to comment on moderation, so my official comment is 'no comment' :)

#3742 Fontainebleau

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Posted Today, 09:47

Although it's a question and I should comment, I am not allowed to comment on moderation, so my official comment is 'no comment' :)

 

You can always PM us, we don't allow commenting on moderation in the forum so that threads are not hijacked, not because we are closed to comments :)



#3743 HoldenRT

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Posted Today, 11:02

Enjoyed that video. :up:



#3744 goingthedistance

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Posted Today, 11:38

The irony of it all is that Ricciardo might just be a boon to Sebs reputation if Seb gets it together for next season.

 

Because then the "hasn't faced a strong teammate" criticism would have to be put to bed.

 

But that's if and only if Seb manages to improve next season.

 

I'm not so sure. If Dan had been paired with a known entity rather than another Red Bull junior previously than maybe. As it is if Seb starts beating Dan next year I don't think it will change many peoples view of Seb's level. They will say that Seb simply had an awful year in 2014 and now he's back to being good but still not stellar like an Alonso or Hamilton. For the record I don't agree, but that's where I see things heading. Even worse if Red Bull has a dominant car in 2015 (unlikely) because that will just solidify views that Vettel needs a perfect car to do his thing. 

 

Realistically the "hasn't faced a strong team-mate" criticism will only go away when he goes up directly against Alonso or Hamilton...or someone like Button who has a known level against one of them. 



#3745 skc

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Posted Today, 12:16

Except that would necessitate dropping Ricciardo from a great driver to an average one. After the accolades he's received this season, that would be very disingenuous.

#3746 goingthedistance

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Posted Today, 12:29

Except that would necessitate dropping Ricciardo from a great driver to an average one. After the accolades he's received this season, that would be very disingenuous.


I haven't seen many people elevating Ricciardo to "greatness" just yet (except for the Aussie press perhaps!). He's surprised many by picking up a couple of wins, but has yet to even contest a WDC properly. We have not seen how he will cope with that sort of pressure. I'm confident he'll do well, but he still has a lot to prove objectively.

One swallow does not a Spring make.

Beating Dan next year would be nothing like beating Alonso or Hamilton for Seb.

#3747 learningtobelost

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Posted Today, 12:33

Except that would necessitate dropping Ricciardo from a great driver to an average one. After the accolades he's received this season, that would be very disingenuous.

 

Ricciardo is clearly a talent, but to call him great at this stage would be disingenuous.  He's doing a good job, but there's just not enough data yet to call him great. Similarly, there's not enough data to suggest that Seb is overrated.  Time will tell on both of these.



#3748 HoldenRT

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Posted Today, 14:48

Seb is already improving and it's getting harder and harder for people to criticise him, compared to early in the season.  There is a general upwards trend.

 

For me Ricciardo has exceeded all expectations and it's hard to say a bad word about him.  Not just in race pace or qualifying pace or racecraft, but everything.  And it was like that from the first sessions of Melbourne and the first wet qualifying.  Very solid.  Even to see a stint where is off the pace is surprising, there's only been a couple.  Sepang there was one, Singapore there was one, first stint of Hungary, Monza etc.  It's usually the first or middle stint, and even then he's not exactly slow.. just average.  That's about all I can think of all season.  Hard to compare to other drivers or other situations, it's hard to talk of WDC's or other things.  These things rely on outside factors but after each race he's seemed to prove it's no fluke and get better not worse.  Singapore was a bit of a poor race for him compared to most and it was still a pretty solid result, especially towards the end of the race.  To be truly great it needs time, time reveals all.  Because to be at a high level for years is different to only half a season, but the signs are there.