The standings after Britain:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) mark f1 909 101 2) DutchQuicksilver 908 100 3) aray 907 101 4) kismet 905 100 5) Makarias 904 100 6) d_view7 902 99 7) AcuraF1 899 97 = Brawn BGP 001 899 91 9) Bleu 898 90 = noikeee 898 90 11) fisichella_2001 894 86 12) wattoroos 893 86 13) Estwald 892 85 = Kingshark 892 86 15) Grayson 891 86 = HeidfeldsBeard 891 87 = skylark68 891 89 18) Iranie 888 86 19) an1res 885 85 20) Wander 883 84 21) Anderis 878 86 22) Fastcake 877 86 23) Barty 871 89 24) Apex 867 82 25) Wlleiotl 861 86 26) scheivlak 860 86 27) LB 858 81 28) KWSN-DSM 851 86 29) Costaz 835 66 30) M2000-5 798 83
Well that resolved the question about who would last the longest with a perfect score! Well done, mark f1!
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 117,7 72,1 22 Hülk 74,8 51,2 3 Rosb 66,9 55,6 0 Bott 63,7 42,7 3 Verg 62,6 22,0 9 Hami 62,4 44,6 1 Kvya 53,7 16,7 12 Vett 47,2 34,1 0 Pere 45,7 27,7 2 Bian 45,1 7,7 11 Alon 43,0 31,2 0 Butt 35,9 23,0 0 Magn 29,4 20,1 0 Mass 24,2 14,7 0 Gros 17,6 8,8 1 Räik 11,0 7,1 0
Daniel Ricciardo becomes the first driver of 2014 to make it past his 100% expectation mark, and that before the halfway mark of the season! Congratulations! A 100% surprise looks to be his next project.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Bottas Ricciardo Button Vettel * Potential 411 * Potential 323 * Potential 348 * Potential 305 * Potential 320 M2000-5 360 Wlleiotl 170 * Forecast 207 Costaz 238 fisichella_2001 204 * Forecast 340 KWSN-DSM 168 kismet 135 Barty 237 kismet 200 Apex 324 noikeee 160 aray 132 Apex 230 aray 194 LB 320 * Forecast 154 Makarias 131 Brawn BGP 001 224 skylark68 189 noikeee 298 Barty 145 mark f1 125 Fastcake 221 AcuraF1 188 Brawn BGP 001 284 AcuraF1 144 d_view7 124 LB 200 scheivlak 186 Bleu 280 Iranie 140 AcuraF1 111 Estwald 177 Makarias 184 AcuraF1 275 Anderis 137 DutchQuicksilver102 Wander 171 DutchQuicksilver181 fisichella_2001 275 Makarias 132 HeidfeldsBeard 102 scheivlak 162 Bleu 180 kismet 270 d_view7 130 * Current 98 KWSN-DSM 160 HeidfeldsBeard 172 Anderis 268 wattoroos 130 Barty 92 noikeee 155 LB 170 skylark68 268 Estwald 121 skylark68 89 Kingshark 151 d_view7 168 Wander 265 fisichella_2001 121 Brawn BGP 001 88 Wlleiotl 150 mark f1 160 scheivlak 258 an1res 120 Bleu 87 skylark68 149 Kingshark 159 wattoroos 255 LB 120 noikeee 87 DutchQuicksilver146 Wander 150 Fastcake 252 Brawn BGP 001 118 Estwald 84 Makarias 146 * Forecast 148 Wlleiotl 250 scheivlak 116 fisichella_2001 83 HeidfeldsBeard 145 Costaz 148 DutchQuicksilver248 Grayson 110 wattoroos 82 kismet 145 Grayson 145 Makarias 248 Wander 107 Kingshark 81 aray 140 Iranie 145 Kingshark 247 M2000-5 106 Grayson 80 M2000-5 140 Barty 138 Grayson 245 Fastcake 101 Iranie 80 Grayson 125 noikeee 136 Estwald 242 Bleu 100 Wander 78 Iranie 125 wattoroos 133 HeidfeldsBeard 240 kismet 100 an1res 75 wattoroos 119 Brawn BGP 001 131 Barty 239 DutchQuicksilver 96 Anderis 67 * Forecast 116 an1res 130 aray 238 Kingshark 96 Fastcake 66 mark f1 115 Apex 110 KWSN-DSM 238 aray 95 Apex 60 fisichella_2001 113 Estwald 106 Costaz 237 mark f1 90 Costaz 57 Anderis 112 Anderis 104 Iranie 227 skylark68 89 LB 55 Bleu 110 Fastcake 98 mark f1 225 * Current 73 Wlleiotl 50 d_view7 110 KWSN-DSM 80 d_view7 203 Apex 70 scheivlak 49 an1res 100 Wlleiotl 80 * Current 161 HeidfeldsBeard 62 KWSN-DSM 40 AcuraF1 79 M2000-5 76 an1res 160 Costaz 46 M2000-5 6 * Current 55 * Current 70
Hamilton beats an1res' guess! Vettel is getting close to climbing up his list.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Alonso Magnussen Hülkenberg Kvyat Vergne * Potential 337 * Potential 285 * Potential 313 * Potential 256 * Potential 259 M2000-5 278 Kingshark 173 * Forecast 133 an1res 35 mark f1 40 HeidfeldsBeard 256 Wander 165 skylark68 122 mark f1 25 an1res 35 aray 252 KWSN-DSM 160 KWSN-DSM 110 Iranie 23 noikeee 27 AcuraF1 235 Brawn BGP 001 154 Makarias 110 KWSN-DSM 20 wattoroos 27 an1res 225 Costaz 154 Costaz 109 Anderis 19 Anderis 26 d_view7 222 Apex 150 Kingshark 102 Bleu 19 Iranie 22 fisichella_2001 217 scheivlak 149 an1res 100 Fastcake 18 KWSN-DSM 20 LB 215 Fastcake 147 Estwald 98 fisichella_2001 18 * Forecast 19 Costaz 210 Estwald 146 scheivlak 96 scheivlak 18 fisichella_2001 16 Fastcake 209 Barty 135 Anderis 94 noikeee 17 aray 15 Barty 204 HeidfeldsBeard 132 Brawn BGP 001 92 wattoroos 16 Grayson 15 Anderis 201 Wlleiotl 120 fisichella_2001 92 Brawn BGP 001 15 Barty 14 DutchQuicksilver201 noikeee 119 Grayson 92 Grayson 14 DutchQuicksilver 14 Iranie 200 DutchQuicksilver118 aray 90 * Forecast 13 AcuraF1 13 kismet 200 aray 115 HeidfeldsBeard 88 aray 10 Brawn BGP 001 13 wattoroos 196 Makarias 114 d_view7 85 Wlleiotl 10 Bleu 12 Wander 195 Anderis 112 mark f1 85 Kingshark 9 Kingshark 12 Bleu 194 kismet 110 Fastcake 83 kismet 9 scheivlak 12 Brawn BGP 001 194 LB 110 Wander 82 Makarias 6 Fastcake 11 skylark68 192 Bleu 107 Wlleiotl 80 * Current 6 Apex 10 Apex 190 fisichella_2001 102 Iranie 75 Apex 5 d_view7 10 KWSN-DSM 190 wattoroos 102 kismet 75 Costaz 5 Wlleiotl 10 * Forecast 184 d_view7 101 DutchQuicksilver 71 DutchQuicksilver 5 * Current 9 Grayson 184 an1res 100 Apex 70 Estwald 5 LB 8 scheivlak 184 Grayson 100 wattoroos 68 LB 5 skylark68 8 Makarias 183 skylark68 100 M2000-5 67 Wander 5 Estwald 7 Kingshark 178 Iranie 80 noikeee 65 HeidfeldsBeard 3 HeidfeldsBeard 7 mark f1 175 mark f1 75 Bleu 63 Barty 1 kismet 7 Wlleiotl 170 * Forecast 74 * Current 63 AcuraF1 0 Costaz 6 Estwald 162 AcuraF1 62 AcuraF1 61 d_view7 0 Makarias 6 noikeee 162 M2000-5 55 LB 60 M2000-5 0 Wander 5 * Current 87 * Current 35 Barty 42 skylark68 0 M2000-5 3
McLaren have been showing some decent form recently, so Magnussen might still do a bit better than what the forecast suggests. Is it the other way around for Hülkenberg?
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Makarias 1588,2 3,2 noikeee 1560,1 30,6 fisichella_2001 1543,4 -1,6 skylark68 1541,9 -2,1 kismet 1536,9 4,4 Brawn BGP 001 1529,8 -3,7 Anderis 1508,9 -2,5 scheivlak 1502,8 6,7 Bleu 1501,6 1,8 mark f1 1497,0 3,4 Kingshark 1494,2 1,8 d_view7 1492,8 -4,7 AcuraF1 1482,8 -0,3 Barty 1481,0 15,6 LB 1479,9 7,4 Iranie 1479,8 7,7 Grayson 1477,0 1,4 Wander 1475,8 5,3 DutchQuicksilver 1473,9 -1,6 wattoroos 1472,9 2,6 Estwald 1462,4 2,1 Apex 1462,2 0,5 HeidfeldsBeard 1461,8 5,3 aray 1457,8 5,8 Wlleiotl 1447,8 20,0 KWSN-DSM 1429,2 20,8 Fastcake 1409,7 3,2 M2000-5 1398,1 14,0 Costaz 1389,9 -0,1 an1res 1357,9 -18,7
Rosberg's DNF wasn't as positive for forecasts as I expected; the points instead went to other nasty overachievers like Hamilton, Bottas and Ricciardo. At least the McLarens got a boost. And more importantly, I'm still leading this list!
