48 replies to this topic

[Wes350]

 

 

The other not-quite championship that more than two drivers have the potential to win…

 

Who dares to put their stamp on the 2014 season with a distant 3^rd place to remember!?

 

The Contenders:

 

Ricciardo: Leading the pack in their quest for the much prized 3^rd place WDC spot; He’s seen more podiums this year than anyone not driving a Mercedes works car. In many ways it is turning to be kind of a breakout year for him. I think that if current form continues, taking the much coveted 3-spot away from him will be a tall order.

 

Alonso: He has been making lemonade out of a lemon. But you can only squeeze so much before you start to run out of juice. The RedBull and Williams cars appear to be getting the best of the Ferrari, so it seems Alonso will have to do something special to make a real fight for that 3^rd WDC slot. Every point counts and he can’t lose anymore 5^th place battles.

 

Bottas: Even though he has hit two podiums in a row, we shall restrain ourselves from proclaiming him the second coming of Fangio, Senna, and Schumacher all rolled into one. The Williams car seems to be on the upswing and it’ll be interesting to see how far he can take it. Is there a number 3 in his future?

 

Vettel:  Not his best year.  But he is hanging in there. It is said that we should expect a hungrier more focused Vettel in upcoming races. He is more than 20 points behind the 3^rd place WDC leader Ricciardo, but if some of his retirement blues begin to take a hold of his teammate he may be able to reach for that third rung yet.

 

With ten races left, anything can happen, who will step forward and claim that third spot in the history books…

[bourbon]

Third rung?  Forget about it - we're coming for you Mercedes - Ferrari, RBR, FI and Williams and we are going to take you down! 

[V8 Fireworks]

3rd place in WDC will be Mr Honey Badger.  No luck for Mr Fingerboy this year IMO, most likely.  Outside chance for the impressive Bottas.

[darkkis]

Bottas, if Williams keeps up on the development race. Looks good so far.

[Cesc]

Bottas is quite ok now, but I wonder if they will be able to keep the fight with the Red Bulls and Alonso in the long run.

 

I would bet for Ricciardo. Alonso can do some 'magic' from time to time and get a lot of points here and there, but he needs big numbers (podiums) to keep the fight as well, and that's gonna be difficult with the Red Bull cars and the Williams.

 

If I had to put numbers/chances, I would say

 

- Ricciardo 40%

- Alonso 25%

- Vettel 20%

- Bottas 10%

- Others...5%

[Lights]

Williams has been a great car all year but it hasn't always been utilized properly. If they can continue their more recent run of results, Bottas can take 3rd place. It has the speed to beat the Bulls, especially because there are some high speed tracks coming up where Renault could struggle. Alonso has no chance to begin with as his car is clearly slower and trickier to drive than the others.

[Anderis]

Bottas is quite ok now, but I wonder if they will be able to keep the fight with the Red Bulls and Alonso in the long run.

I have no doubt he will, but I'm not sure if Williams will. Austria and Silverstone were two tracks that suited FW36 very well. Out of the remaining 10 races, there are 2, maybe 3 that will suit it equally well, the rest should be worse.

And with Williams, you can always expect a string of strange strategies and bad pit stops more often, than from other teams on average.

[Nonesuch]

It seems Williams is inconsistent, which hampers Bottas' chances. Ferrari isn't good enough to give Alonso much of a chance.

 

Third in the WDC will probably go to the better - or more fortunate - of the Red Bull drivers. It'd be great for him if Ricciardo could take it.

[MrMan]

I'd love to see Bottas get it, I rate him higher than Ricciardo.

 

That said I do think the pecking order will start to settle soon and it'll probably end up being Alonso or Vettel.

[sopa]

It is pretty likely Ricciardo will take it. Provided he doesn't drop off in form in webber-style and lose the "lead" like happened in 2010. But of course we don't know yet and how well can Ricciardo put together a complete season. So far looking good.

 

Ricciardo has been running ahead of Alonso in most races, so unless Daniel starts suffering from retirements, he should be able to cover Alonso. Another possibility is if Ferrari suddenly finds notable amount of performance improvement, but seems somewhat unlikely.

 

Williams is looking good, but I think Bottas will remain short. Ricciardo-Red Bull are a bit too consistent and complete to overhaul them this year.

 

Vettel needs a significant turnaround and start performing majestically in the second half of the season plus a DNF from Ricciardo would help. Not impossible, but a tough task since Ricciardo seems a tougher and younger/fresher rival than Webber was.

[sabjit]

Third rung?  Forget about it - we're coming for you Mercedes - Ferrari, RBR, FI and Williams and we are going to take you down! 

 

We can't hear you, you are too far back. Speak up man.

[PayasYouRace]

Right now I can only see Bottas challenging Ricciardo and only if Williams can keep up their current form, which seems like a tough job. Alonso will score well, but Ferrari need a real turnaround too.

[Anderis]

Williams is looking good, but I think Bottas will remain short. Ricciardo-Red Bull are a bit too consistent and complete to overhaul them this year.

I don't see it that way. Red Bull seems to encounter more technical issues than other front-running teams. Williams' chance lies in Red Bull's unreliability- kind of lack of consistency in results.

 

[Jon83]

I'd like it to be Alonso but I think Vettel is going to make a comeback to take third place.

[Thomas99]

Ricciardo will take it unless he has mechanical problems. Vettel won't overhaul 29 points on performances alone.

[Sheepmachine]

Ricciardo will get it I think.
Ferrari are to inconsistent and are in the midfield to much.
Bottas is very good but I wonder if Williams can keep the form they have had of late going.
Vettel's head has dropped since Ricciardo started beating him consistently and he seems to be striggling with the red bull more than his team mate.
I don't think anyone else has a chance of third.

[Briz]

Too early for such a prediction, 10 races remaining with the last one of them giving double points and the summer break might change things a lot, who knows FRIC removal too. If technically the cars performances remained like now, Bottas with ease

[RonnyRonny]

Would be an amazing achievement for Bottas if he was to come third.

Most likely is Alonso or Ricciardo.

[joshb]

Vettel always comes good in the final 1/3 of the year.

 

Still hoping he gets 3rd, starting to think it will be almost a good an achievement as his 4 title wins

[joshb]

Vettel gets it thanks to double points!

Would laugh

[jjcale]

You missed out FM, the car is good and he could still put a late run together - esp if he is told that he has to driver for his seat....

[aguri]

This year would have been a classic if you removed Merc.

 

We would have had Redbull v Williams v Alonso keeping up.

[MetallurgicalHedonist]

Vettel always comes good in the final 1/3 of the year.

Still hoping he gets 3rd, starting to think it will be almost a good an achievement as his 4 title wins

Why is that? It is the absolute second best car with 168 points, look at the WCC table. And quite behind Red Bull, there are four teams which are within a quite narrow range of 106 and 90 points. For a driver of one of those four teams to become 3rd would be thousand times more impressive than a RedBull driver becoming third in the WDC.

[sennafan24]

Vettel gets it thanks to double points!

Would laugh

I would not. Nothing against Seb, but I do not want anyone to benefit by that stupid rule

 

Alonso is that consistent he really always be a threat. Williams have looked impressive lately, and Bottas has shown improved race craft from last year. However, I still think the RB drivers have the edge. Seb rallies in the second half of the year, and RB always develop well. Give Seb a car at its optimum potential and he seems to thrive.

 

D.R is the favorite at the moment, but I could just as easily see the above drivers ending up third.

[Rybo]

You missed out FM, the car is good and he could still put a late run together - esp if he is told that he has to driver for his seat....

 

Lets not forget about Kimi as well. Sure he has had a tough go so far, but if Ferrari get their act together he could steal points off any of driver fighting for 3rd. 

[RonnyRonny]

Kimi will finish below 10th in this years WDC

[HoldenRT]

It's wide open.

[joshb]

I would not. Nothing against Seb, but I do not want anyone to benefit by that stupid rule

 

Alonso is that consistent he really always be a threat. Williams have looked impressive lately, and Bottas has shown improved race craft from last year. However, I still think the RB drivers have the edge. Seb rallies in the second half of the year, and RB always develop well. Give Seb a car at its optimum potential and he seems to thrive.

 

D.R is the favorite at the moment, but I could just as easily see the above drivers ending up third.

It'd be the wrong result but given double points was brought in to stop Vettel winning the title in October, it would be a bit poignant if he profited from it, even if it won't be for the actual title

[sopa]

What about an outside challenge for Hulkenberg? Don't think he'd do it, but he might join the others if all comes together.

 

It doesn't look he is even remotely a contender at the moment, but consider this: he has traditionally been going better in the second half of the seasons - which is something that so far has been attributed to Vettel.

 

Force India has on occasion had the tendency to improve performance in the second half, like in 2011 and 2012. It remains to be seen, how will the car developments pan out during the rest of the year though, but can't rule the scenario out at the moment.

 

Who knows. Just two races ago Bottas didn't look like having any kind of a chance before he got two consecutive podiums.

[sabjit]

Vettel always comes good in the final 1/3 of the year.

 

Still hoping he gets 3rd, starting to think it will be almost a good an achievement as his 4 title wins

 

It wouldn't mate, he's had a shocking year.

 

I am starting to think this year will devalue his 4 title wins.

[Jimisgod]

Ricciardo is the form man. Bottas has a better car though.

Honestly it is between Dan, Bottas and Alonso. Vettel isn't up to matching Dan, Massa is his typical inconsistent self, Hulkenberg lacks the car.

[Jimisgod]

I'd love to see Bottas get it, I rate him higher than Ricciardo.

That said I do think the pecking order will start to settle soon and it'll probably end up being Alonso or Vettel.

I can't see why, Dan is more consistent in beating the 4x champion than Bottas is in beating the journeyman Massa.

Vettel is going to need a massive shift - even when he outqualifies Dan, Dan still beats him.

[Rybo]

Kimi will finish below 10th in this years WDC

Not trying to guess where he will end up, but he could make things more interesting. Just like Felipe and the McLaren boys.

[DutchQuicksilver]

I'm expecting Alonso really. He's more consistent than Ricciardo and there will be some more tracks where the Red Bull will struggle liken in Austria. Also, the removal of the FRIC won't help Red Bull either.

[Owen]

Ricciardo I reckon.

[v@sh]

Right at the moment, Bottas. I think the car is good enough for him to catch up to Ricciardo. You can see how much Williams has improved - arguably the team should have been in 2nd place given their pre season testing - by their pace around Silverstone (a RB track) + they have the power unit for the straight line speed which quite frankly the Renault PUs are rubbish.

[Jimisgod]

Williams is best at the high speed stuff. I think when Bottas overtakes Ricciardo it will be at Monza.

[xmoonrakerx]

Kimi will finish below 10th in this years WDC

 

never miss a chance to have a go?

[joshb]

It wouldn't mate, he's had a shocking year.

 

I am starting to think this year will devalue his 4 title wins.

Disagree on both counts

 

People wrote him off in 2010 and 2012, can't believe they'll make the same mistake a third time

 

I'm still optimistic

[Briz]

Why is that? It is the absolute second best car with 168 points, look at the WCC table. And quite behind Red Bull, there are four teams which are within a quite narrow range of 106 and 90 points. For a driver of one of those four teams to become 3rd would be thousand times more impressive than a RedBull driver becoming third in the WDC.

 

This result so far is just because RB have a strong driver pairing not really making costly mistakes and Williams drivers especially Massa had terrible luck and some weak strategy decisions, the Williams is a better car for sure with that engine. Red Bull drivers only have a chance against Bottas because their team will probably develop the car faster than the Williams till end of the season and because they have better track ops

[ch103]

This result so far is just because RB have a strong driver pairing not really making costly mistakes and Williams drivers especially Massa had terrible luck and some weak strategy decisions, the Williams is a better car for sure with that engine. Red Bull drivers only have a chance against Bottas because their team will probably develop the car faster than the Williams till end of the season and because they have better track ops

 

I think this is the most important part.  I think Dan will finish 3rd in the WDC over Bottas for this reason.  Red Bull have a similar advantage over the Ferrari's, but the gap is as much. 

[sennafan24]

What about an outside challenge for Hulkenberg? Don't think he'd do it, but he might join the others if all comes together.

 

He is consistent enough, but do Force India have the resources/money to keep up?

 

I expect RB will develop best. Which means a straight showdown with Danny Ric and Seb for 3rd.

[sennafan24]

Disagree on both counts

 

People wrote him off in 2010 and 2012, can't believe they'll make the same mistake a third time

 

I'm still optimistic

Difference is, D.R is beating Seb on merit a lot more often than Webber did in 2012

 

In terms of performance, I would also say that Webber and Seb were evenly matched in the first half of 2010. D.R has a modest advantage over Seb in performance so far in 2014. I am not writing Seb off from coming 3rd, but he has just a stiff a test to beat his teammate this year than he did in 2010, perhaps even stiffer.

[bourbon]

Difference is, D.R is beating Seb on merit a lot more often than Webber did in 2012

 

In terms of performance, I would also say that Webber and Seb were evenly matched in the first half of 2010. D.R has a modest advantage over Seb in performance so far in 2014. I am not writing Seb off from coming 3rd, but he has just a stiff a test to beat his teammate this year than he did in 2010, perhaps even stiffer.

 

Webber wasn't beating Seb on merit at the start of 2012?  What makes you say that?

[sennafan24]

Webber wasn't beating Seb on merit at the start of 2012?  What makes you say that?

Maybe in qualifying, but only 2 race weekends did finish ahead of Seb in 2012 when nothing went wrong, namely Silverstone and Monaco.

 

Other than that Seb had a advantage in race trim.

[Thomas99]

Maybe in qualifying, but only 2 race weekends did finish ahead of Seb in 2012 when nothing went wrong, namely Silverstone and Monaco.

 

Other than that Seb had a advantage in race trim.

 

China too.

 

But you're right, Webber's 'beating' of Vettel is historically overplayed. If you had a look at the races from the first half it would still be something like 6-3 to Vettel, something majorly different to what we're seeing at the moment.

Edited by Thomas99, 17 July 2014 - 02:08.

[George Costanza]

It wouldn't mate, he's had a shocking year.

 

I am starting to think this year will devalue his 4 title wins.

 

Just like people devalue Schumacher's 7 when he was beaten by Nico's 3 years in a row?  Yeah, right. Michael beat Ayrton in 1992, who I consider the greatest of all time, are his 3 titles devauled because he lost to Michael in only in his second season in roughly equal cars in 1992? Perhaps McLaren-Honda was slightly quicker than the Benetton, but both were way behind the super Williams Renaults.

 

Or the fact that Schumacher had a "weak era" argument? That so called "weak era" we would have had Damon Hill, who would have been a 3 time World Champion if Michael was not there. Same for Mika; he would have been a 3-4 time World Champion himself. Juan Pablo Montoya/Kimi wouldhave been champions too.

 

Is that "weak era"?

 

It's the same with Seb.... Without Seb, Fernando would have quite likely been the 2010, 2012 and 2013 World Champion for Ferrari. Would people be saying all the bad things about Ferrari had they won those titles? I don't think so.  Is this era "weak" with drivers like Fred, Lewis, Kimi, or Nico? No.

 

It's quite possibly that Michael made the field look average in his time... Which he did do that.

Edited by George Costanza, 17 July 2014 - 02:40.

[Brother Fox]

Smart money says Ricciardo as he's best placed and Red Bull seem to develop the car better than most, something I doubt Williams can do for Bottas.

But then the question is, for how long do they focus on 2014? How long before RB's resource focus shifts to 2015 as they're in it for the big prize.

[aditya-now]

Vettel gets it thanks to double points!

Would laugh

 

Man, the double points issue could well be the decider between Rosberg and Hamilton as well as for third place...

 

Would not laugh, as it could turn out to be whimsical.