231 replies to this topic

[garoidb]

Has Ricciardo any chance in the WDC? He is 60 points behind Lewis, and 71 behind Nico. He has the potential to win races if the Merc cars explode or if they indulge too much infighting between their drivers. 

[bauss]

Nein

[TurboF1]

The thought entered my mind, but Spa and Monza, with strong Mercs, Williams and Ferraris may halt his momentum a bit

[Borko]

Wow.. No, just no. Although he drove a fantastic race, this was not a regular race.

Edited by BorkoF2012, 27 July 2014 - 15:44.

[Cyanide]

Unfortunately I can't see this happening. 

 

We have Spa and Monza coming up, not to mention Suzuka and Austin. Almost all high-speed and long circuits where engine power is everything. And Mercedes will not explode at every race. 

 

The only track where Red Bull could win is Singapore. 

[Ev0d3vil]

Last year, when Lewis won Hungary, people thought he would be WDC. But lets look what happened after Spa.

[HamiltonFanboy]

It all depends on Red Bulls form. If they can improve the car by even a few tenths then he has a very very small chance. Red Bull will only have 1 horse to back whilst Mercedes will surely be in an all out war by the time we get to the final few races. I think we will see him sneak a few more wins but I think a significant title challenge is a long shot.

[masa90]

No, unless Mercedes goes and self destructs.

[garoidb]

Wow.. No, just no. Although he drove a fantastic race, this was not a regular race.

 

To put it another way, if he could hover about 50 points back then it may affect the way Mercedes approach the last few races. They couldn't treat it as an internal world championship.

[payinkind]

No. 

 

RBR, unless Renault improves the PU massively, has only two other shots at a win, Singapore and Brazil.

[Jimisgod]

No. Spa and Monza will be Williams territory. I expect Bottas might nab a win.

He may be looking like Kubica in 2008, but unless it rains every race he has no hope of overhauling Merc.

[HoldenRT]

No, but if the car was faster.. you do wonder sometimes.  He seems to deliver big performances on a regular basis.

[HoldenRT]

No. Spa and Monza will be Williams territory. I expect Bottas might nab a win.

He may be looking like Kubica in 2008, but unless it rains every race he has no hope of overhauling Merc.

 

Bottas can win but only if the Mercs get in each others way and make mistakes like they did today.  Otherwise, even race is by default a Merc win.

[TheUltimateWorrier]

So you're saying there's a chance?

 

[garoidb]

The gap to Lewis would only be 42 points if he had not been disqualified in Oz.

 

Anyway, if by some miracle he reels them in enough to make it interesting I will be bumping this thread as evidence of my prescience. If not, I guess it will sink without trace. 

[Oho]

Bottas can win but only if the Mercs get in each others way and make mistakes like they did today.  Otherwise, even race is by default a Merc win.

 

So basically Bottas can win the same way Daniel Ricciardo can and has won twice....

[jestaudio]

No, unless Mercedes goes and self destructs.

More likely than DR winning, 

[engineblock1]

Unfortunately no. RBR would lose quite some ground in next two races due to its weaker PU. I expect Ferrari, even McLaren to be stronger in Spa & Monza compared to RBR. Riccardo can finish 3rd at best in WDC. That would still be quite an achievement

[Szoelloe]

LOL to the OP

[HuddersfieldTerrier1986]

Only if any car with a Merc and Ferrari engine blows up every weekend and the PU suddenly becomes amazing compared to the rest. In other words, more chance of me buying an envelope and being able to post doughnuts to the owner of a Greek football club.

Edited by HuddersfieldTerrier1986, 27 July 2014 - 17:07.

[tommi34]

No, but he would be surprisingly close without that DQ in Australia.

[chrcol]

I think is possible he may get second but I dont think he will beat both merc's.

[garoidb]

No, but he would be surprisingly close without that DQ in Australia.

 

That is what struck me. I basically dismissed the possibility of a non-Merc WDC very early on, so the new WDC table surprised me. I thought they would be further ahead by now, but it is the old effect of splitting the points quite equally within a team.

 

Edit: the double points for the last race also plays into this.

Edited by garoidb, 27 July 2014 - 17:11.

[fpbecker]

Not in 2014. Daniel Ricciardo can be a title contender in future seasons though, depending on the car at his disposal. He sure makes Vettel look slow in the RBR...

[skc]

Maybe if it rains and there's a safety car or two at every race.

 

Yeah, maybe.

[Longtimefan]

Not this year, but next.. Yes!

[Riverside]

Sure if it rains every race day and  Safety cars Mercedes has hiccups ... sure he'll surely be in it .

[Briz]

I think this matter is in Vettel's hands. If he decides to abandon any hope of winning the title and if he accepts the role of being a team player, they'll have a chance to bring Dan closer to the Mercedes guys.

 

Imagine Dan in the form he is and an improving Vettel without any pressure on him, being 100% committed to ruin the races of Rosberg and Hamilton by using set up and strategy to gain track position on them at the right time and then block them, always letting Dan through when needed. There is nothing in the rules against this as far as I know. Ferrari tried at the end of 2012 and even a driver of Massa's ability was enough to make a difference. Imagine a driver with Vettel's racecraft and speed and the experience of 4 titles being in a situation where he doesn't care about his own race at all and everything he wants to do is ensure better position for Ricciardo. That could be epic.

 

8 races, practically 9 because of the double points, he can do massive damage and this is a strategy that is completely plausible, RBR have always thought out of the box and they might consider that idea.

[paipa]

Yes he does, 100/1 according to the bookies

[Imateria]

Not a chance. This was the race that everyone thought Red Bull might be able to close up on and attack Merc, and they were still 0.5s away in qualy. If this was a standard dry race they would have been fighting Bottas and Alonso for 2nd and hoping that Hamilton didn't come flying past late on. I expect the next 2 races to be a Williams vs Merc fight with everything else a straight Merc victory with Williams and Red Bull fighting for the bottom step of the podium and Alonso pulling his usual heroics to get in amongst them.

[Otaku]

Zero

[aditya-now]

To put it another way, if he could hover about 50 points back then it may affect the way Mercedes approach the last few races. They couldn't treat it as an internal world championship.

 

With Red Bull always coming back much stronger after the summer break, who knows?

 

Of course, the straight line deficit of the Renault engine will kill the Red Bulls in Spa and Monza, but if the technical troubles of Mercedes continue and Daniel continues so strongly, the last race could throw up the surprise of surprise. There is 50 points on offer in the last race.

 

A lot of ifs, I know.... 

[aditya-now]

No, but he would be surprisingly close without that DQ in Australia.

 

1 Nico Rosberg  202

2 Lewis Hamilton  191

3 Daniel Ricciardo  149

 

in that alternate reality....

 

Still a long shot, yet - see above.

Edited by aditya-now, 27 July 2014 - 17:54.

[bourbon]

I think this matter is in Vettel's hands. If he decides to abandon any hope of winning the title and if he accepts the role of being a team player, they'll have a chance to bring Dan closer to the Mercedes guys.

 

Not a chance.  This isn't Ferrari.

[Briz]

Not a chance.  This isn't Ferrari.

 

What do you mean? Why not

[SealTheDiffuser]

Even ALO can be WDC with 50 points in ABuDouble and some Mercedes bad luck / self destruct / intrateam crash

its still a long way and PU penalty points also will play a role...

[garoidb]

1 Nico Rosberg  202

2 Lewis Hamilton  191

3 Daniel Ricciardo  149

 

in that alternate reality....

 

Still a long shot, yet - see above.

 

How close do people think he needs to be before Merc would start to think the unthinkable?

[Bleu]

 

With the speed advantage Mercedes has, it needs 3-4 DNFs for both including Abu Dhabi. But I'm certain that Ricciardo will have some bad races so I can't see it happening. But anyway here's one scenario how it could happen.

        BEL  ITA  SIN  JPN  RUS  USA  BRA  ABD 
ROS 202  25        25   18        25            295
HAM 191  18   25        25        18   25       302
RIC 131  15   18   18   15   25   15   18   50  305

Edited by Bleu, 27 July 2014 - 18:52.

[pingu666]

it really needs merc to drop the ball repeatidly.

 

and didnt dan win canada (merc walkover track) and here, where lewis is just a little bit good

[Coral]

I doubt it, Mercedes are just too strong, and Spa and Monza will not suit the Red Bulls. Ricciardo needs Mercedes to really stuff up in order to be in contention for the WDC, and I don't think they will.

 

Ricciardo has an excellent chance of getting third place though.

[Jon83]

Only if Rosberg and Hamilton both retire from every race. 

[garoidb]

Only if Rosberg and Hamilton both retire from every race. 

 

They are not that far ahead, you know. If we knew now that they would both retire from the last race, that would account for most of their current lead.

[Ferrari_F1_fan_2001]

If both Mercedes DNF at the next 3 races then he is in the WDC hunt.

 

That, or he has to take 7-8 points off each Merc driver from now till the end.

 

 

We have some power circuits like Monza and Spa coming up, as well as Suzuka, Brazil and Austin. All are power tracks and the Mercs and Williams will have an edge.

 

Conclusion = tiny chance.

[Risil]

Ricciardo's probably close enough to make Lewis's torpedoing of Rosberg a bit of an issue for Mercedes management.

 

He's had a stunning year.

[JHSingo]

As much as I'd love it - it'd be pretty hilarious if he did somehow win the championship instead of one of the Mercs - I can't see it happening unless some major shenanigans take place. 

[garoidb]

Ricciardo's probably close enough to make Lewis's torpedoing of Rosberg a bit of an issue for Mercedes management.

 

He's had a stunning year.

 

My question is not just will he win the WDC, which is admittedly unlikely as per the consensus here, but will his lurking presence affect it?  

[Risil]

My question is not just will he win the WDC, which is admittedly unlikely as per the consensus here, but will his lurking presence affect it?  

 

That's a very good question. Hopefully he can keep his performances up for the sake of us neutrals.

[Vesuvius]

In recent years, RBR and Vettel has been stunning after summer breaks...so there is still a little chance for that, but realisticly, I think this year it will be between Nico and Lewis.

[Cesc]

no

[SamH123]

After Monza and Spa we'll probably be asking if Bottas has a chance