231 replies to this topic

[MetallurgicalHedonist]

If in terms of performance Red Bull was a match to Mercedes, I could see Ricciardo having a remote shot, but not currently.

 

E: Even the 1999 Jordan was closer to McLaren/Ferrari in performance than current Red Bull. Jordan could qualify on the front row and challenge for poles. And in fact get a pole at Nurburgring. Even the 2008 BMW Sauber with Kubica had a better chance. I think people have forgotten the car performance handicap Ricciardo has to deal with. The car is more than 1s per lap slower, clearly!

 

First, I doubt that, like Jordan compared to McLaren/Ferrari in 1999, RedBull will have only half of the points of AMG by the end of 2014 (more like two/third of AMGs points maybe).

 

Furthermore, one of the two RedBull drivers have been more often second or third in qualifying within only the first seven GPs of 2014 than a Jordan in the entire season of 1999.

 

And finally, all the races Frentzen won were also "not normal" races (France 1999, Monza 1999 or even Europe 1999 (if he'd won it). So, Jordan was not less dependent on chaos back then like RedBull now.

 

Irrespective of who wins this year, if Dan comes second, by 17 points or less, I think we might see the smile disappear for the first time this year !

 

Au contraire, if he loses only by 17 points and gets even runner-up, his smile will be so big as never seen before (and that seems impossible to imagine) because that would be like 1993 where Senna ended a season although a dominant team was the competitor. Besides, the 18 points' loss must be weighed against the at least 18-25 points' loss of Rosberg or the 30-40 points' loss of Hamilton.

 

Jordan in 1999 was something else. A real one trick pony that year; HHF would have pulled it off if he won the European GP of 1999. IF he won it, I'd rate it as the most unlikely champion ever; and probably one of the finest.

 

And so well deserved because from their mutual early motorsport days on, not few people said or even insisted that Frentzen was probably more gifted and faster than Schumacher. And that 1999 season would've underlined that.

 

Anyway, it was still a more than convincing season. He was fast, Frentzen, but in the end probably didn't use his elbows too much in his career, I guess. Otherwise, he wouldn't have been so da.n loyal to fulfill his contract at Sauber... and went straight to Williams in 1994 or 1995 like MSC did after one race going from Jordan to the better Benetton team.

 

Besides: Senna himself is said to have told SFW that he should consider Frentzen as his successor when he retires...

Edited by MetallurgicalHedonist, 28 August 2014 - 15:32.

[George Costanza]

Yeah, I think Heinz career would be a hell of lot different if he went to Williams earlier; 1994 to replace Senna after he died, and 1995-1996, which all had great cars. It would have been a great battle with Schumacher.

 

By the way did Senna really say that? He often was worried about Schumacher.

Edited by George Costanza, 28 August 2014 - 16:06.

[MetallurgicalHedonist]

I don't have an official statement or serious link to post where he says that but I've heard and read that very often...

In 1992, it maybe looked like he could be worried about Schumacher, but in 1993 that "problem" was solved. Didn't Briatore say after the first four or five races that it was not McLaren who were better then them but Senna.

[garoidb]

Before Singapore, Daniel was 72 points off the WDC lead. Now it is 60 points.

[Mediansoft]

Before Singapore, Daniel was 72 points off the WDC lead. Now it is 60 points.

And that is still a 13 point loss as there are 25 points less to earn since before singapore.

[garoidb]

And that is still a 13 point loss as there are 25 points less to earn since before singapore.

 

Well, he woudn't need to close the gap at a rate of 25 points per race if that is what you are getting at.

 

Discussions in this thread have shown that few believe he will overhaul his full points deficit over the remaining races to Abu Dhabi. The interesting question, to me anyway, is whether he could be less than 50 points behind the WDC leader going into Abu Dhabi. That would make it a three way fight. 

[ch103]

Well, he woudn't need to close the gap at a rate of 25 points per race if that is what you are getting at.

 

Discussions in this thread have shown that few believe he will overhaul his full points deficit over the remaining races to Abu Dhabi. The interesting question, to me anyway, is whether he could be less than 50 points behind the WDC leader going into Abu Dhabi. That would make it a three way fight. 

 

I agree - as long as Dan is within 50 points before Abu Dhabi, we would have a 3 way battle for the WDC.  In order for that to happen, there would be some very rewarding races for Dan's fans leading up to Abu Dhabi.

[Risil]

Geeeetting clooooserrrr.

[lbennie]

On target...

[Brother Fox]

I think the answer to the thread title has gone from

 

"Don't be a d!ckhead"

 

to

 

"Very slim"

[Thomas99]

The Red Bull doesn't have the ultimate pace yet he keeps hanging around. 

[stobiesaur]

He keeps hanging in there thats for sure. A 2nd place in Singapore would have definitely helped.  Still need a few more Mercedes reliability woes for sure

[Redback]

And that is still a 13 point loss as there are 25 points less to earn since before singapore.

...and apparently Llamas are larger than Frogs.

Edited by Redback, 22 September 2014 - 07:43.

[ForzaGTR]

I think RIC is out of it now, Merc appear to have fixed the HAM/ROS relationship, and HAM is back on form. Even at a Red Bull special track the Merc was considerably faster on race day. RIC would require an incredible amount of luck to win it now.

[gruntguru]

He keeps hanging in there thats for sure. A 2nd place in Singapore would have definitely helped.  Still need a few more Mercedes reliability woes for sure

 

 

The Singapore result was a great argument for team orders at RBR.

 

Ricciardo would be 57 points behind - sounds a lot less than 60 doesn't it?

[RubalSher]

The Singapore result was a great argument for team orders at RBR.

 

Ricciardo would be 57 points behind - sounds a lot less than 60 doesn't it?

 

Alonso would have been 4xWDC if he had 5 more points in 2010 and 4 more points in 2012. 

[Nonesuch]

Alonso would have been 4xWDC if he had 5 more points in 2010 and 4 more points in 2012. 

 

Indeed. Every point matters, even - or perhaps especially -, in this age of inflated points.

 

Come to think of it, it's quite extraordinary how close Alonso came in 2007, 2010, and 2012. Ten points in all that made the difference between two and five titles.

[Lee Nicolle]

Unlikely, but the Mercedes may take each other out. Or break down. Daniel has been the most consistent of the rest. And remember the AGP points he lost, it would be a lot closer. IF he had them he would be a fair chance. Though the Renaults may break down too. If they do he has NO chance!

[mgs315]

If Kimi managed to win the 2007 title, Dan can still win this title in 2014.

[Nonesuch]

If Kimi managed to win the 2007 title, Dan can still win this title in 2014.

 

Perhaps, but Räikkönen was never as far behind as Ricciardo is this year.

 

The Ferrari was also much more of a match for the McLaren than this year's Red Bull is for the Mercedes.

 

After all, only Hamilton had problems in Brazil - and Massa and Räikkönen still had to beat Alonso. Had Alonso been able to beat Massa for second, he would have been the champion that year.

[sopa]

I think RIC is out of it now, Merc appear to have fixed the HAM/ROS relationship, and HAM is back on form. Even at a Red Bull special track the Merc was considerably faster on race day. RIC would require an incredible amount of luck to win it now.

 

Yeah to close the gap further Ricciardo basically needs a Mercedes DNF on every circuit now. And that is just for "staying within a chance before season finale". To really win it he needs Mercedes to DNF from the majority of the races with both cars...

[Mauseri]

Alonso would have been 4xWDC if he had 5 more points in 2010 and 4 more points in 2012. 

 

And without teamorders and nr. 1 status, as it should be, he would not have had a chance.

[TopDog85]

If Daniel is within 50 points at Abu Dhabi he has a good chance of wining the title given how close Lewis and Nico are, there's a real risk of them taking each other out.

[travbrad]

Perhaps, but Räikkönen was never as far behind as Ricciardo is this year.

 

The Ferrari was also much more of a match for the McLaren than this year's Red Bull is for the Mercedes.

 

After all, only Hamilton had problems in Brazil - and Massa and Räikkönen still had to beat Alonso. Had Alonso been able to beat Massa for second, he would have been the champion that year.

 

That middle part is really the key.  It's one thing to come from behind like Raikkonen did when you have a car that is equal-best or even superior on some circuits, it's quite another thing to come from behind with a car that is inferior even at tracks that suit your car.

[krapmeister]

If Daniel is within 50 points at Abu Dhabi he has a good chance of wining the title given how close Lewis and Nico are, there's a real risk of them taking each other out.

Us Aussies love the Bradbury strategy for success!

Edited by krapmeister, 22 September 2014 - 12:57.

[F1ultimate]

That middle part is really the key.  It's one thing to come from behind like Raikkonen did when you have a car that is equal-best or even superior on some circuits, it's quite another thing to come from behind with a car that is inferior even at tracks that suit your car.

 

Daniel's car being inferior is irrelevant when the final race is a double pointer. If Daniel finish on the podium in Abu Dhabi while either of the Mercs don't then he could leap get danerously close in points to one of them.

 

I bet that Dieter Zetsche will soon have a word with Toto Wolf to ensure that the team doesn't repeat Mclaren's mess of 2007 where the team entertained the F1 crowd with a thrilling title battle but walked away without the WDC. In fact, it would be an embarrassment for Mercedes if both drivers don't comfortably finish 1-2 in the drivers standings. 

[travbrad]

Daniel's car being inferior is irrelevant when the final race is a double pointer. If Daniel finish on the podium in Abu Dhabi while either of the Mercs don't then he could leap get danerously close in points to one of them.

 

 

He'll have to be within 50 points going into Abu Dhabi to have a mathematical chance though, which seems very unlikely unless the Mercs start crashing into each other a lot, and considering he's already more than 50 points behind.

[TimTams]

He'll have to be within 50 points going into Abu Dhabi to have a mathematical chance though, which seems very unlikely unless the Mercs start crashing into each other a lot, and considering he's already more than 50 points behind.

Daniel's progression towards the championship leading points has been on an upwards trend as of late bar the Monza result. His chances are remote, but if you take into account that some of his best results as of late have come at the hands of a Mercedes blunder (in one way or another), it wouldn't be right to rule it out as happening again.

And just because it feels more real when you write it down...

Singapore - Rosberg's wiring loom
Spa - Rosberg and Hamilton's little shenanigans on lap 1
Hungary - Hamilton's qualifying fire
Germany - Hamilton's qualifying brake failure
Silverstone - Rosberg's car death (gearbox?)
Austria - Hamilton's qualifying spin

6 issues in the last 7 race weekends. Hamilton did well to bounce back from his three qualifying issues, but I think Red Bull are much closer in pace now than they were back then. I think things will be interesting.

[Retrofly]

You have to remember that although Ric has caught up points wise, the mercs are so close now, that he essentially needs 2 drivers to fall off a cliff, rather than just one of them.

 

The chances of both merc cars having multiple failures are lower than just one.

[sv401]

but I think Red Bull are much closer in pace now than they were back then.

 

Still not really on pace yet, though, as even at Singapore (a track that presumably suits the RB10) the W05 was faster both in qualifying and the race. Ricciardo faces a combination of three major problems to become WDC:

- the car is simply not fast enough. I do not recall the RB10 outpacing the W05 on merit in any competitive session (qualifying or race) so far. The difference ranges from "slightly slower" (Monaco, Hungary, Singapore) to "much slower" (Austria, Monza), but it is always in favor of the silver cars. For comparison, even Alonso/Ferrari in 2012 was able to outpace Vettel/Red Bull on merit sometimes, like at Barcelona or Monza

- the leader is too far ahead. 60 points is almost 2.5 races (comparable to Raikkonen vs. Alonso in most of 2005), and that is bad even with a car that can win without relying on luck

- there are two rivals with a large gap to overhaul. Even if we generously give Ricciardo a 10% chance of beating one Mercedes driver, it would statistically become 1% to beat both (not to mention when one of them has problems, the other tends to benefit)

 

While it is mathematically possible, his chances are definitely slim, and worse than Raikkonen's in 2007, for example, who had a competent car, a relatively smaller gap to one of the McLaren drivers (Alonso), and still needed a run of perfect final races with the rivals stumbling over their feet to barely win in the end.

[TimTams]

I think to a degree you're right in regards to the RB10 struggling to outpace the W05, however the Mercedes runs in clear air more often than the Red Bull does and it's difficult to match the leading team's car in those circumstances. Vettel was actually matching Hamilton's pace in the first stint of the Singapore GP, and Ricciardo was matching or near-matching Hamilton's pace towards the back end of the Italian GP.

I think there's promise there, and like I said the chances of Ricciardo being able to muster a challenge is very slim, but by the same stretch I don't think it's entirely dismissable. That being said, if Ricciardo wishes to mount a challenge I think he and/or Red Bull need to do something about their one-lap pace and the race starts.

[GhostR]

A couple of races ago I made a post in the Ricciardo vs Vettel thread (here: http://forums.autosp...39#entry6835054) where I ran down the numbers of whether or not Ricciardo had a realistic chance of still being in the title fight when we get to Abu Dhoubli. As it stood then, Rosberg was the leader in the WDC fight and the analysis said that Ricciardo needed to average 3 points/race more than Rosberg (to be within mathematical shooting distance) or 9 points/race (rounded up) to be close enough that winning the race would win the title.

 

I did something similar again earlier this week, but looked at all the drivers still "in with a mathematical chance" to win the title. I chucked it in this thread: http://forums.autosp...matical-chance/ . Interestingly enough, the outcome there is that Ricciardo now needs to score an average of 3 points/race more than Hamilton (to be within mathematical shooting distance) or 12 points/race (rounded up) for a race win to be a title win automatically. The former hasn't changed, but the latter is becoming more difficult.

 

The big change is with Vettel's chances ... 2 races ago he needed to gain 10 points/race (rounded up) just to be within 50 points, now he needs a whopping 17 points/race. Alonso and Bottas are the other two (besides the obvious two) who can still theoretically stay in the hunt. I expect we'll lose at least two of Bottas, Vettel, and Alonso out of the title fight after Japan (unless both Mercs have a bad run).

 

Anyway, getting back to Ricciardo - even though he's not had any spectacular results the last two races (in terms of beating both Mercs home), he has actually done just enough to be on track to keep himself within a realistic range. He'll need repeated bad luck for the Merc drivers, but for him that bad luck only needs to strike one of them each race (as long as they alternate as they have been of late). Everyone else is reliant on both Merc drivers hitting trouble, and doing so repeatedly.

 

Anyway, using that favourite phrase of the Red Bull folks: yes, he has "a mathematical chance". And it's a pretty good one as far as mathematical chances go (it's far, far better than what Bottas, Vettel, and Alonso have). Is it realistic? At the moment, I'd say yes. But it could slip away rapidly if/when Merc get on top of their reliability issues.

Edited by GhostR, 24 September 2014 - 12:09.