The standings after Hungary:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) aray 1109 101 2) kismet 1105 99 3) Makarias 1104 99 4) mark f1 1100 91 5) d_view7 1096 93 6) DutchQuicksilver 1081 76 7) AcuraF1 1075 81 8) Brawn BGP 001 1068 76 9) fisichella_2001 1063 76 = noikeee 1063 76 11) Bleu 1061 76 = Kingshark 1061 76 = wattoroos 1061 76 14) Grayson 1060 76 15) Estwald 1059 74 16) Iranie 1057 76 17) skylark68 1052 70 18) Wander 1050 74 19) Anderis 1047 76 20) Fastcake 1046 76 21) HeidfeldsBeard 1040 70 22) Barty 1033 76 23) scheivlak 1029 76 24) an1res 1022 59 25) Wlleiotl 1021 69 26) LB 1018 74 27) Apex 1013 71 28) KWSN-DSM 1012 70 29) Costaz 980 70 30) M2000-5 951 68All sorts of gaps building up now as most players have run out of Ricciardo points to score. Etcetera.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 157,3 96,3 27 Bott 82,9 55,6 5 Hülk 81,9 56,1 7 Rosb 81,9 68,0 1 Verg 76,6 26,8 12 Hami 74,0 52,9 1 Vett 59,4 42,9 3 Alon 56,8 41,2 0 Kvya 53,7 16,7 12 Pere 47,3 28,7 2 Bian 45,1 7,7 11 Butt 39,2 25,1 0 Mass 32,3 19,6 0 Magn 31,1 21,3 0 Gros 17,6 8,8 1 Räik 15,7 10,1 0Ricciardo edging very close to a rather early 100% surprise. Hülkenberg missed points for a change but is still looking good expectations wise.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Ricciardo Alonso Hamilton Rosberg Massa * Potential 331 * Potential 315 * Potential 391 * Potential 402 * Potential 240 * Forecast 226 M2000-5 278 M2000-5 360 * Forecast 349 M2000-5 203 kismet 135 HeidfeldsBeard 256 * Forecast 330 M2000-5 296 Wlleiotl 200 aray 132 aray 252 Apex 324 Barty 292 Estwald 180 Makarias 131 AcuraF1 235 LB 320 noikeee 271 KWSN-DSM 169 * Current 131 an1res 225 noikeee 298 Apex 270 noikeee 169 mark f1 125 d_view7 222 Brawn BGP 001 284 Wlleiotl 270 wattoroos 153 d_view7 124 fisichella_2001 217 Bleu 280 HeidfeldsBeard 268 DutchQuicksilver142 AcuraF1 111 LB 215 AcuraF1 275 Estwald 266 Iranie 140 DutchQuicksilver102 Costaz 210 fisichella_2001 275 skylark68 265 kismet 140 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Fastcake 209 kismet 270 Bleu 255 LB 140 Barty 92 Barty 204 Anderis 268 Makarias 255 AcuraF1 133 skylark68 89 Anderis 201 skylark68 268 Anderis 254 aray 130 Brawn BGP 001 88 DutchQuicksilver201 Wander 265 scheivlak 254 Makarias 126 Bleu 87 Iranie 200 scheivlak 258 LB 250 Fastcake 121 noikeee 87 kismet 200 wattoroos 255 Kingshark 248 an1res 120 Estwald 84 * Forecast 199 Fastcake 252 Fastcake 246 Anderis 119 fisichella_2001 83 wattoroos 196 Wlleiotl 250 d_view7 245 Costaz 119 wattoroos 82 Wander 195 DutchQuicksilver248 mark f1 245 mark f1 115 Kingshark 81 Bleu 194 Makarias 248 AcuraF1 242 scheivlak 113 Grayson 80 Brawn BGP 001 194 Kingshark 247 fisichella_2001 242 Grayson 105 Iranie 80 skylark68 192 Grayson 245 kismet 240 skylark68 102 Wander 78 Apex 190 Estwald 242 Brawn BGP 001 236 Brawn BGP 001 100 an1res 75 KWSN-DSM 190 HeidfeldsBeard 240 DutchQuicksilver234 fisichella_2001 100 Anderis 67 Grayson 184 Barty 239 Wander 233 Kingshark 94 Fastcake 66 scheivlak 184 aray 238 Costaz 229 Apex 90 Apex 60 Makarias 183 KWSN-DSM 238 Iranie 227 d_view7 85 Costaz 57 Kingshark 178 Costaz 237 KWSN-DSM 225 Wander 82 LB 55 mark f1 175 Iranie 227 Grayson 220 Bleu 80 Wlleiotl 50 Wlleiotl 170 mark f1 225 wattoroos 219 HeidfeldsBeard 76 scheivlak 49 Estwald 162 d_view7 203 aray 206 Barty 70 KWSN-DSM 40 noikeee 162 * Current 191 * Current 202 * Forecast 69 M2000-5 6 * Current 115 an1res 160 an1res 200 * Current 40Ricciardo only needs a top 7 finish to make the 100% surprise, so he won't make much of a difference hereafter. Rosberg claims his first scalp!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Räikkönen Vettel Bottas Vergne Button M2000-5 267 * Potential 288 * Potential 295 * Potential 211 * Potential 260 d_view7 258 fisichella_2001 204 Wlleiotl 170 mark f1 40 Costaz 238 * Potential 227 kismet 200 KWSN-DSM 168 an1res 35 Barty 237 AcuraF1 215 aray 194 * Forecast 164 noikeee 27 Apex 230 Barty 204 skylark68 189 noikeee 160 wattoroos 27 Brawn BGP 001 224 Costaz 203 AcuraF1 188 Barty 145 Anderis 26 Fastcake 221 Iranie 200 scheivlak 186 AcuraF1 144 Iranie 22 LB 200 Wander 192 Makarias 184 Iranie 140 KWSN-DSM 20 Estwald 177 Fastcake 188 DutchQuicksilver181 Anderis 137 * Forecast 19 Wander 171 DutchQuicksilver179 Bleu 180 Makarias 132 fisichella_2001 16 scheivlak 162 HeidfeldsBeard 178 HeidfeldsBeard 172 d_view7 130 aray 15 KWSN-DSM 160 Kingshark 177 LB 170 wattoroos 130 Grayson 15 noikeee 155 wattoroos 177 d_view7 168 Estwald 121 Barty 14 Kingshark 151 an1res 175 mark f1 160 fisichella_2001 121 DutchQuicksilver 14 Wlleiotl 150 Bleu 171 Kingshark 159 an1res 120 AcuraF1 13 skylark68 149 LB 165 * Forecast 152 LB 120 Brawn BGP 001 13 DutchQuicksilver146 Anderis 164 Wander 150 Brawn BGP 001 118 Bleu 12 Makarias 146 KWSN-DSM 163 Costaz 148 scheivlak 116 Kingshark 12 HeidfeldsBeard 145 Apex 160 Grayson 145 Grayson 110 scheivlak 12 kismet 145 aray 160 Iranie 145 Wander 107 Fastcake 11 aray 140 Grayson 155 Barty 138 M2000-5 106 * Current 11 M2000-5 140 Makarias 153 noikeee 136 Fastcake 101 Apex 10 Grayson 125 scheivlak 152 wattoroos 133 Bleu 100 d_view7 10 Iranie 125 mark f1 150 Brawn BGP 001 131 kismet 100 Wlleiotl 10 wattoroos 119 Wlleiotl 150 an1res 130 DutchQuicksilver 96 LB 8 mark f1 115 fisichella_2001 148 Apex 110 Kingshark 96 skylark68 8 fisichella_2001 113 skylark68 148 Estwald 106 aray 95 Estwald 7 Anderis 112 kismet 145 Anderis 104 * Current 95 HeidfeldsBeard 7 Bleu 110 Estwald 135 Fastcake 98 mark f1 90 kismet 7 d_view7 110 noikeee 121 * Current 88 skylark68 89 Costaz 6 * Forecast 104 Brawn BGP 001 111 KWSN-DSM 80 Apex 70 Makarias 6 an1res 100 * Forecast 47 Wlleiotl 80 HeidfeldsBeard 62 Wander 5 AcuraF1 79 * Current 27 M2000-5 76 Costaz 46 M2000-5 3 * Current 60Kimi's chances to score a 100% surprise are already down to zero. Brawn's guess sure seems to be the best one there.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Makarias 1570,2 -2,4 noikeee 1550,5 7,3 fisichella_2001 1540,6 10,5 kismet 1533,8 11,9 skylark68 1529,4 2,5 Brawn BGP 001 1515,5 10,0 AcuraF1 1511,2 31,8 Bleu 1504,0 11,1 Anderis 1502,6 16,3 d_view7 1495,8 14,0 LB 1488,9 18,3 Barty 1482,7 20,7 scheivlak 1482,0 -3,8 mark f1 1477,0 -1,9 Kingshark 1475,6 -2,8 DutchQuicksilver 1470,8 11,9 Iranie 1469,6 16,2 Wander 1468,2 12,1 HeidfeldsBeard 1467,7 16,9 aray 1463,7 16,9 wattoroos 1463,0 13,6 Apex 1454,5 11,7 Grayson 1452,0 0,0 Estwald 1440,2 1,4 Wlleiotl 1434,7 -4,9 KWSN-DSM 1423,3 5,1 Fastcake 1409,1 19,7 M2000-5 1402,9 24,0 Costaz 1382,8 15,7 an1res 1360,0 24,7I'm not so sure that I approve of these silly forecast changes that add to the excitement, surely we've already had enough of that?
