82 replies to this topic

[Tsarwash]

So obviously either Lewis or Nico are going to win the WDC at the end of this year. And either of them have a fair chance of 2015 too, if they both stay with Mercedes. But which other drivers are going to win a WDC in the next say ten years, which is as far as most or all of them shall be racing in F1 ? Does anybody see Button getting another chance to be champion ? Or Alonso ? I'm sure that we're all agreed that unless Kimi pulls something very special out of the bag, his chances are nil. F1 is about marketabily as well as talent and this could well count against some drivers getting one of the prime drives, and this could count against some of the current drivers and in the favour of some others.

I see Bottas as easily talented enough to bag a WDC at some point, but for some reason, I think it might just elude him, whereas I'm sure that Riccardo will get a WDC, even though I'm not convinced that he is much better than Bottas.

[Jimisgod]

90%+ - Ricciardo

75%+ - Bottas, Rosberg, Hamilton

50%+ - Vettel, Hulkenberg, Alonso

25%+ - Bianchi, Kvyat, Magnussen (Ocon, Verstappen)

[TheNewStig]

Bottas and Magnussen.

[Jimisgod]

I don't believe Grosjean will. He's kind of missed the boat for his generation, I think guys like Bianchi and Kvyat are equally capable and will get the nod once Button, Kimi and Alonso leave.

[camberley]

My odds

 

Vettel > 90%

Alonso  > 90%

Bottas   > 60%

Rosberg > 80%

Hamilton  < 1%

 

Ricciardo < 10% 

[GoldenColt]

Vettel - never again

Alonso - never again

Hamilton - 2 more WDC

Rosberg - 1 WDC

Ricciardo - never ever

 

I don't see the likes of Ricciardo, Magnussen and Bottas ever win a WDC. It will take a more special generation of drivers, maybe starting with Max Verstappen, to become WDC-material. And hopefully those drivers will be a lot more charismatic or at least controversial.

[kraduk]

My odds

 

Vettel > 90%

Alonso  > 90%

Bottas   > 60%

Rosberg > 80%

Hamilton  < 1%

 

Ricciardo < 10% 

 

thats just trolling about hamilton 

 

Vettel - never again

Alonso - never again

Hamilton - 2 more WDC

Rosberg - 1 WDC

Ricciardo - never ever

 

I don't see the likes of Ricciardo, Magnussen and Bottas ever win a WDC. It will take a more special generation of drivers, maybe starting with Max Verstappen, to become WDC-material. And hopefully those drivers will be a lot more charismatic or at least controversial.

 

and the other 7?

 

 

Button has to be in with a chance if he stays at macca next year, and the honda is good. The odds are it will be close with kmag though, if it does pan out like that, but he has a chance.

 

I cant see Ferrari sorting their car out without revolution in their team. THat might happen but its all just hot air at the moment, so i rule out Alonso and Kimi if they stay. 

 

SB has a good chance in the next few years as does DR as red bull will sort themselves at some point. If they dont SB will get another top drive somewhere. The likes of Grosean and hulk will make a good pairing at a top team with the younger up and coming ones so will always have a chance

[sopa]

Who knows, how does the roll dice and the performance of cars swing. One thing looking at all the past champions is clear - you need to be a pretty good driver to achieve it. People sometimes discuss whether D.Hill, Villeneuve or Button are the worst champions. But even they were pretty good - certainly among top 5 drivers of their contemporary grid. So you need to be among the elite of the competitors to win it, even if you are not quite creme de la creme.

 

So who could win? Anyone, who has the ability to be a top 5 driver on the grid for some time, and the rest will be determined by cars and you need to be in the right one. In terms of ability, I think all of Ricciardo, Bottas, Hulkenberg can perform at an adequate enough level to mount a challenge. Unclear is how will the team/car performances shift around. 

 

Among already established elite - Hamilton has got a golden chance to win more. Rosberg is also very good and could nab a title too. Alonso, Raikkonen, Button - very doubtful. Vettel still has a long career, but at the moment things are not going his way and it may take time before he gets on a roll at the right place again. Magnussen, Kvyat, Verstappen, Vandoorne and others - yet unclear how good can they be.

[1Devil1]

Vettel - never again
Alonso - never again
Hamilton - 2 more WDC
Rosberg - 1 WDC
Ricciardo - never ever

I don't see the likes of Ricciardo, Magnussen and Bottas ever win a WDC. It will take a more special generation of drivers, maybe starting with Max Verstappen, to become WDC-material. And hopefully those drivers will be a lot more charismatic or at least controversial.

So, you only gave three championships to Lewis and Rosberg, vettel is relative young as ricciardo. Alonso has some years left in the tank. And ricciardo is not special enough for you, did you watch this season ?? He outshown every other driver bar Alonso, only a mad man would bet against him with the right material. Really can't understand your reasoning here. Mercedes domination and then only young guns who are not in f1 will take the crown. Very unlikely

[thiscocks]

Just realised if Alonso wins a third title it will be 10 years after his first! Who whould have thought that in 2005?! Plus I think he would hold the record for longest gap between titles. Off my head I think Lauda currently has it from '77-'84.

[zepunishment]

Never again: Button & Raikkonen (both due to retire soon), Alonso (he's good enough to do so, but Ferrari's problems won't be fixed in the short term and even if he switches to mclaren they will need a couple of years to come good).

 

Good possibility: Vettel & Hamilton (both have that killer instinct), K-Mag, Ricciardo, Bottas (best of the new era from what I've seen so far).

 

This thread is obviously massive speculation. F1 has other variables which determine success other than the driver of course. Hulk should be fighting for titles but is stuck in lesser cars due to lack of money, for instance.

[Nonesuch]

At the moment, my guess (!) would be something like:

 

90% - Hamilton. If he doesn't win it this year then I don't know what would have to happen for him to add to his 2008 title.

10% - Rosberg. This is his (perhaps only?) chance to win a title.

 

The rest is be impossible to guess or predict, especially given the changes we can expect next year. Next year is - unfortunately, due to the terrible regulations - the first moment we can expect any significant changes in the relative performances of the cars.

 

 

Just realised if Alonso wins a third title it will be 10 years after his first! Who whould have thought that in 2005?! Plus I think he would hold the record for longest gap between titles. Off my head I think Lauda currently has it from '77-'84.

 

I think so too.

 

Niki Lauda won in 1984 after last winning in 1977.

Jack Brabham won in 1966 after last winning in 1960.

Graham Hill won in 1968 after last winning in 1962.

Michael Schumacher won in 2000 after last winning in 1995.

 

Not a gap, but speaking of spreads: Schumacher's first came in 1994, his last in 2004.

Edited by Nonesuch, 06 August 2014 - 09:49.

[DavidHeath461]

Ricciardo Hamilton and Rosberg have the best chances.

Alonso is good enough but by the time Ferrari come good, he will be too old.

Vettel can only win with the EBD. I don't see that coming back any time soon.

[ANF]

They could all do it with a superior car, a bit of luck, and an inferior teammate.

[Ducks]

With RBR ability to produce a championship winning car i'd say Ricciardo would be a pretty safe bet to say he'll be a WDC at some point.

 

Both Hamilton and Rosberg have as good a chance as each other to win it this year. (both scenarios are good for f1)

[GoldenColt]

thats just trolling about hamilton 

 

 

and the other 7?

 

 

Button has to be in with a chance if he stays at macca next year, and the honda is good. The odds are it will be close with kmag though, if it does pan out like that, but he has a chance.

 

I cant see Ferrari sorting their car out without revolution in their team. THat might happen but its all just hot air at the moment, so i rule out Alonso and Kimi if they stay. 

 

SB has a good chance in the next few years as does DR as red bull will sort themselves at some point. If they dont SB will get another top drive somewhere. The likes of Grosean and hulk will make a good pairing at a top team with the younger up and coming ones so will always have a chance

 

If Button ever wins another WDC, I'll get a tattoo of his face back when he had his wild beard-phase all across my stomach, take a photo of it and put it in here.

Aw, you know what, if JB ever wins another F1-race I'll change my avatar and ask the mods to change the "Member" under my avatar to "Worlds biggest JB-fan".

 

In other words: I'm pretty sure JB won't become WDC again. I just don't see McLaren get back to winning form, even with Honda.

[garagetinkerer]

Vettel - never again

Alonso - never again

Hamilton - 2 more WDC

Rosberg - 1 WDC

Ricciardo - never ever

 

I don't see the likes of Ricciardo, Magnussen and Bottas ever win a WDC. It will take a more special generation of drivers, maybe starting with Max Verstappen, to become WDC-material. And hopefully those drivers will be a lot more charismatic or at least controversial.

Did he screw your pooch or something?

 

If Button ever wins another WDC, I'll get a tattoo of his face back when he had his wild beard-phase all across my stomach, take a photo of it and put it in here.

Aw, you know what, if JB ever wins another F1-race I'll change my avatar and ask the mods to change the "Member" under my avatar to "Worlds biggest JB-fan".

 

In other words: I'm pretty sure JB won't become WDC again. I just don't see McLaren get back to winning form, even with Honda.

Saved...

Edited by garagetinkerer, 06 August 2014 - 10:23.

[GoldenColt]

Did he screw your pooch or something?

Nah, I just have a hunch that due to the massive (and imho premature) success in his early career he will suffer in the second half of his career.

[garagetinkerer]

Ricciardo Hamilton and Rosberg have the best chances.

Alonso is good enough but by the time Ferrari come good, he will be too old.

Vettel can only win with the EBD. I don't see that coming back any time soon.

You do realise that Vettel is younger than Hamilton and will stick around as long, if not longer?

 

Agree about Alonso. He has to have some luck now with the car. He has enough talent to make use of an opportunity. Let us see if he is getting any better at closing.

[Ducks]

You do realise that Vettel is younger than Hamilton and will stick around as long, if not longer?

 

Agree about Alonso. He has to have some luck now with the car. He has enough talent to make use of an opportunity. Let us see if he is getting any better at closing.

 

Vettel has Ricciardo to beat to the title now though, which doesn't look like something he would be capable of.

[garagetinkerer]

Nah, I just have a hunch that due to the massive (and imho premature) success in his early career he will suffer in the second half of his career.

Hmm... i still think that given he will be around, it will take some bravery, like your tattoo or rineheart's xyz eating to bet against him.

 

Vettel has Ricciardo to beat to the title now though, which doesn't look like something he would be capable of.

It didn't look like that he will beat Webber of Alonso to title either in 2010, but he did. Another 5-7 years... who knows what will happen. .

[HoldenRT]

Who will build a better car?

 

Who would have predicted Button in 2009?  Who would have predicted Alonso or Kimi wouldn't win one since 2008?  The stars have to align to win WDC's.. it doesn't matter who the driver is.  Everything has to be right.

[PlatenGlass]

Obviously it's not just about skill but about opportunity. Hill and Villeneuve won in 1996 and 1997, and while some might argue that they were good drivers, I don't think they were up there with most champions. And Irvine nearly did it in 1999. Obviously that was a long time ago and maybe things have moved on, but you still had Massa in 2008 and Webber in 2010 who nearly won and they aren't generally regarded as proper top drivers.

So when you look at the likes of Bottas, Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Bianchi and Magnussen, that's a lot of people and it's unlikely they'll all do it. Ricciardo is perfectly placed though. He's at Red Bull and while they're not the best this year, I don't see them not rising to the top again. So he's likely to get a chance at some point. Also, the chances are that one or two of the promising drivers will end up not looking as good as people originally thought at some stage in their career and not make it. Lots of drivers show early promise and go on to disappoint but it's hard to predict in advance. Stick one of them alongside a top team-mate and will they sink or swim? Of those, with Bianchi and Magnussen in particular there isn't enough to go on.

With the more established drivers, Alonso's not really that old yet, so it depends on Ferrari, and if they don't get their act together it also depends on whether Alonso ever goes elsewhere. He's good enough and on balance I'd give him >50% chance.

With Vettel, although he's struggling a bit against Ricciardo, it's too early to write off his career. And he's young enough and established enough to be able to get another top drive rather than get dumped into the midfield.

Hamilton and Rosberg - one of them will do it but we don't know how dominant Mercedes will be beyond this year. I'd say even the loser this year will still have future chances though.

Button - Probably not. McLaren seem to have lost the plot recently. They might improve again, but will he be the driver to take it necessarily? He's good but I think there's a handful of better drivers out there.

Raikkonen - I'd say it's unlikely now. People say he's lost it this year, but I don't think he has ever matched his McLaren days. I think Raikkonen and Massa were a bit Ralf/Montoya (people look back and think actually the car flattered them), and at Lotus I think Grosjean's inconsistencies made him look better. There were races other drivers could have won that Raikkonen and Grosjean failed to.

[Gorma]

Nah, I just have a hunch that due to the massive (and imho premature) success in his early career he will suffer in the second half of his career.

Doesn't that apply more to Hamilton than Vettel? Hamilton got immediately into a top team and a winning car and won his WDC on his second year, where as Vettel didn't win his first WDC until his fourth year and Toro Rosso and Red Bull hadn't even won a grand prix before his arrival

[RunningMan]

It's impossible to predict really. After 2005, if you thought in 10 years Alonso would have only added 1 more title to his name you would have been laughed out the room.

 

Driver skill doesn't really play a big role if they win a title or not. It's about the car, your team-mate and how good the competition is. 

 

Both Merc guys have got a good shout for next year, but it depends on how much Renault and Ferrari can catch up PU wise. If they can put pressure on them, I can see Mercedes crumbling, particularly with the (lack of) leadership they have at the moment. 

[KavB]

I think Raikkonen and Button have near 0 chance. Just because there aren't many seasons left for them (probably one more each) and I don't think they'll have a title contending car before they retire. I also think Alonso will retire as a double world champion. He is not in the right place to win I feel.

 

Vettel and Hamilton I feel are extremely likely to win again and I think Rosberg will win this year. The remainder of champions may be drivers we haven't seen yet in F1. 

[GoldenColt]

Doesn't that apply more to Hamilton than Vettel? Hamilton got immediately into a top team and a winning car and won his WDC on his second year, where as Vettel didn't win his first WDC until his fourth year and Toro Rosso and Red Bull hadn't even won a grand prix before his arrival

 

Vettel won 4 WDC in 6 full seasons in F1.

Hamilton won 1 WDC in 7 full seasons in F1.

 

I rest my case.

[kosmos]

A lot of drivers have the talent to win a title, not only the current champions, at the end of the day is all about the car. I think is irrelevant to talk about future champions solely based on talent and we can't predict who is going to have a winning car in the coming years, maybe Mercedes has the advantage but things change quickly in F1.

[03011969]

AMong others, Ricciardo, Bottas and Kvyat are strong contendors of they find themselves in suitable machinery.

 

I particularly like Botas's attitude - seems unpeturbed by anything.

[bourbon]

Nah, I just have a hunch that due to the massive (and imho premature) success in his early career he will suffer in the second half of his career.

 

Well I think some are hoping that will be the case.  I think realistically it depends on the constructor he is with over time.  It is all about timing and having the wheels to challenge.  Hamilton the same.  The older WDCs could of course also earn more, but timing is going to be an issue.

 

I think Kvyat will put up a challenge in the future among the young set.  Of the non-rookie, non-WDC drivers, Rosberg is most likely to earn a WDC.  Then you have the Bottas, JEV, Ricciardo, Hulk, group, all capable, but again, depends on what the constructors can do.

Edited by bourbon, 06 August 2014 - 12:09.

[Gorma]

Well I think some are hoping that will be the case.  I think realistically it depends on the constructor he is with over time.  It is all about timing and having the wheels to challenge.  Hamilton the same.  The older WDCs could of course also earn more, but timing is going to be an issue.

 

I think Kvyat will put up a challenge in the future among the young set.  Of the non-rookie, non-WDC drivers, Rosberg is most likely to earn a WDC.  Then you have the Bottas, JEV, Ricciardo, Hulk, group, all capable, but again, depends on what the constructors can do.

I think Hulk and JEV have missed the boat already. They had their chances of being picked up by one of the top teams. Hulk didn't get the McLaren seat or the Ferrari seat and Ricciardo beat JEV to the RBR seat. Unless they can bring money it is unlikely they will get another chance. 

[Zoetrope]

Hamilton and Vettel already proved they are capable of wining titles and are still young. Rosberg have great chance this or next year.

Alonso, Kimi, Button - sadly can't see it.

From newer drivers it had to be Ricciardo - he is so much above all the rest.

[bub]

I would guess Hamiton will get one this year and/or next year and Bianchi, Bottas and Ricciardo will all get at least one before their careers are over.

[Burtros]

oh look a thread totally dominated by Vettel hate and Hamilton love. What a nice change for these forums.

 

Vettel and Hamilton both have plenty more time to win world titles. Anyone saying neither can ever again is dreaming, sorry, thats a fact. You just dont know.

 

Alonso deserves another title, wether or not he will be in a position to do so I dont know. I wouldn't be upset if his 2007 hissy fit ended up becoming the defining moment of his career.

 

Ricciardo/Rosberg/Bottas/Hulkenberg all have the right potential. Some will get chances, others will not.

 

Button - only if McLaren keep him next year and build an awesome car. I dont see the second thing happening.

 

Kimi - least chance of all IMHO. Slim to none.

 

Kyvat/Magnussen - I dont know. I try not to draw conclusions on drivers after just 10 races.

Edited by Burtros, 06 August 2014 - 13:44.

[Jimisgod]

Vettel - never again
Alonso - never again
Hamilton - 2 more WDC
Rosberg - 1 WDC
Ricciardo - never ever

I don't see the likes of Ricciardo, Magnussen and Bottas ever win a WDC. It will take a more special generation of drivers, maybe starting with Max Verstappen, to become WDC-material. And hopefully those drivers will be a lot more charismatic or at least controversial.

The way Max is going he's going to be the most overrated F1 driver ever, before he even sat in an F1 car. People are acting like he's already better than all the current drivers and he honestly hasn't achieved **** in the lower car classes.

My guess is he's going to absolutely flop like every other "next Senna" who gets raved about before even sniffing an F1 car.

[7MGTEsup]

I think the future is impossible to predict.

 

Case in point if you watched the first 12 races of 1990 and you said Jean Alesi will only win one grand prix in a 12 year career. You would have been laughed at and been called daft.

 

Or if at the start of 2010 you would have said Sebastian Vettle would win 4 titles back to back you would have been met with the same response.

 

I have seen a few drivers over the years that have looked like going all the way but for one reason or another have amounted to not a lot.

[GoldenColt]

The way Max is going he's going to be the most overrated F1 driver ever, before he even sat in an F1 car. People are acting like he's already better than all the current drivers and he honestly hasn't achieved **** in the lower car classes.

My guess is he's going to absolutely flop like every other "next Senna" who gets raved about before even sniffing an F1 car.

 

Could be, hence the "maybe".

[Dick Dastardly]

I feel Hamilton will win WDC again only if he is the undisputed no 1 in a front running team that is regularly winning races and even then, fate might decide if he wins it or not. Just like 2008.   

Edited by Dick Dastardly, 06 August 2014 - 15:38.

[Atreiu]

In a good enough car and enjoying superior reliability, even Rosberg appears to be WDC material after being a non-factor in title runs and barely contending for wins his entire career.

 

That leads me to honestly believe all predictions are moot.

 

For all we know, Ricciardo might be this generation's more competent Alesi.

Edited by Atreiu, 06 August 2014 - 15:54.

[skc]

Ricciardo - 80% in a Redbull

Vettel - 90% in a Merc. 80% in a RB

Hamilton - 20% I feel this year is his best chance but I think he'll just fall short. And if he leaves Merc, forget it.

Rosberg - 80%. I think he's odds on favorite to win it this year.

[motorhead]

Before joining Brawn GP Button was already considered as yesterday´s news, but look what happened. Prediction is a difficult job and miracles happens

[garagetinkerer]

oh look a thread totally dominated by Vettel hate and Hamilton love. What a nice change for these forums.

 

Vettel and Hamilton both have plenty more time to win world titles. Anyone saying neither can ever again is dreaming, sorry, thats a fact. You just dont know.

 

Alonso deserves another title, wether or not he will be in a position to do so I dont know. I wouldn't be upset if his 2007 hissy fit ended up becoming the defining moment of his career.

 

Ricciardo/Rosberg/Bottas/Hulkenberg all have the right potential. Some will get chances, others will not.

 

Button - only if McLaren keep him next year and build an awesome car. I dont see the second thing happening.

 

Kimi - least chance of all IMHO. Slim to none.

 

Kyvat/Magnussen - I dont know. I try not to draw conclusions on drivers after just 10 races.

  I agree with most of what you said... except the bit about 2007.

[George Costanza]

Seb will win one more before he retires.

 

Fred will win one more....

 

Lewis as well.

 

Nico will win 2014, IMO.

[garagetinkerer]

Before joining Brawn GP Button was already considered as yesterday´s news, but look what happened. Prediction is a difficult job and miracles happens

Fully agree... what i may have to add is perhaps sacrilege... Most of the drivers are rather close in terms of pace. It is not like before where you have one driver who was clearly that much better, and even then the teams skewed things a bit by favouring one driver over the other. So much so that most will do well given a competitive car. Some will win more dominantly and some will with less flair... but you don't win without a good to great car these days. Previously you had variables like fuel quantity, tyres etc., but now you have the same tyres for all, same/ similar fuel quantities, similar strategies for most part. So in most cases, the car ends up being the difference maker. Of course, there are some exceptional drives by a select few, but that is rare.

[emmanuelrubi]

Perez or Esteban if the rumors about Telmex buying Sauber into Scuderia Telmex F1 and bringing back BMW are true, OW never ever ever.

Edited by emmanuelrubi, 06 August 2014 - 19:37.

[Farhannn15]

Perez or Esteban if the rumors about Telmex buying Sauber into Scuderia Telmex F1 and bringing back BMW are true, OW never.

Well they'd both probably keep crashing into each other even if their car is a second faster than the rest

Edited by Farhannn15, 06 August 2014 - 19:34.

[emmanuelrubi]

Well they'd both probably keep crashing into each other even if their car is a second faster than the rest

 

LOL they should add 3 drivers per team and sign Maldonado too.

[Dick Dastardly]

Button has had his chance of winning the WDC and took it.......and he'll only win again if, say Williams, suddenly becomes the car to beat next year and he's driving for them. Stranger things have happened...

[lars75]

The way Max is going he's going to be the most overrated F1 driver ever, before he even sat in an F1 car. People are acting like he's already better than all the current drivers and he honestly hasn't achieved **** in the lower car classes.

My guess is he's going to absolutely flop like every other "next Senna" who gets raved about before even sniffing an F1 car.

 

He hasn't achieved ****??? He is more succesfull in his first year of carracing then all off the current F1 drivers combined!!!

 

Kimi achieved **** in the lower car classes as well! But still Sauber picked him up after just a few races and put him in their car. 

 

The kid is exceptional good and the best I have seen for many years. Better then Hulkenberg or Frijns as far as I see and his trackrecord now is even better then that of Vettel and Hamilton as well.

 

Let him sniff, I think he will like the smell of it!!!

 

Maybe he is overrated, but maybe he is the successor of his Father, or he is the new Kimi or even better he will be the legacy of Ayrton! Purhaps he will become the new Magnussen sr, brought like the next big thing and gone in the blink of a eye!

[lbennie]

Vettel won 4 WDC in 6 full seasons in F1.

Hamilton won 1 WDC in 7 full seasons in F1.

 

I rest my case.

 

Agreed, Vettel is pretty amazing