82 replies to this topic

[Jimisgod]

He hasn't achieved ****??? He is more succesfull in his first year of carracing then all off the current F1 drivers combined!!!

I'm sure many of the current drivers managed to lead their first car championship, which 'super mega heroic prodigy new Senna' isn't doing.

He's doing about the same in F3 as Marciello did in 2012, and no one jerked off about how he is going to be the greatest F1 driver of all time.

[George Costanza]

I think the future is impossible to predict.

 

Case in point if you watched the first 12 races of 1990 and you said Jean Alesi will only win one grand prix in a 12 year career. You would have been laughed at and been called daft.

 

Or if at the start of 2010 you would have said Sebastian Vettle would win 4 titles back to back you would have been met with the same response.

 

I have seen a few drivers over the years that have looked like going all the way but for one reason or another have amounted to not a lot.

 

Jean's mistake was Ferrari.... If he could go back in time, I'd be sure he'd pick Williams 1991.... Imagine Jean in 1992-1993 Williams? World Champion....

[PlatenGlass]

Jean's mistake was Ferrari.... If he could go back in time, I'd be sure he'd pick Williams 1991.... Imagine Jean in 1992-1993 Williams? World Champion....

Who's his team-mate? He could have been world champion, but would he have beaten Mansell or Prost in those years? Or is he against Patrese and Hill?

[turssi]

Ricciardo, Vettel, Kvyat, Rosberg, Hamilton and one of Bottas/Magnussen/Bianchi is my say for the next ten years !

[George Costanza]

Who's his team-mate? He could have been world champion, but would he have beaten Mansell or Prost in those years? Or is he against Patrese and Hill?

I don't think Frank Williams would have gotten Nigel or Alain if Jean was there. So Hill and Patrese it is...

[garagetinkerer]

Who's his team-mate? He could have been world champion, but would he have beaten Mansell or Prost in those years? Or is he against Patrese and Hill?

Having read Brawn's assessment in short of Alesi, i would reckon he would certainly not have beaten Prost, but would have been rather embarrassing potentially. Hill, it becomes a bit of a question mark... who knows, which one of the two would have come out on top.

[George Costanza]

Having read Brawn's assessment in short of Alesi, i would reckon he would certainly not have beaten Prost, but would have been rather embarrassing potentially. Hill, it becomes a bit of a question mark... who knows, which one of the two would have come out on top.

 

What did Ross say about Jean?

[PayasYouRace]

In the categories of Very Unlikely, Unlikely, Maybe, Likely to Very Likely: (This year is included)

 

Very Likely: I see these guys as winning one almost inevitably.

Ricciardo

Vettel

Rosberg

Hamilton

 

Likely:

Alonso - Turns out he's the only one I place here, simply because I don't know if he'll hang around long enough and make the right team choices.

 

Maybe: These guys probably would be able to do it if they end up in the right car.

Grosjean

Perez

Bianchi

Magnussen

Button

Kvyat

Hulkenberg

Bottas

 

Unlikely: Mostly because I just don't see them being around for long enough or to get into a car good enough to do it.

Raikkonen

Kobayashi

Massa

Vergne

 

Very Unlikely: A minor miracle, or horrible tragedy would be required.

Chilton

Ericsson

Maldonado

Gutierrez

Sutil

 

This is a "gut feeling" list. I can't really comment on up and coming junior drivers. Though there are plenty of talents out there that I'd like to see have a crack at F1.

 

[sopa]

As we see there are quite a few young drivers, who appear to be consistent and fast enough to mount a challenge, but really we don't know the circumstances yet. If even someone like Alonso hasn't managed to win one since 2006, then nobody is safe or "secure". Hence I am sceptical about claims that "Ricciardo surely will win". Let's see, how the car performances swing in the next 5-10 years, and who happens to be in the right cars. One thing seems pretty certain/likely - Mercedes is in great form with great foundations and should continue to mount title challenges at least for a couple of next seasons. So Hamilton and/or Rosberg should stand a good chance. What happens beyond that who knows? McLaren? Williams? Resurgent another team? Will Red Bull become a "runner-up" team like McLaren/Ferrari were in early 2010-s? Bottas, Hulkenberg, Grosjean, Ricciardo, Magnussen, and others will need to play their cards right. Or hope that their team finally comes truly good. Sometimes loyalty pays off (Hakkinen late 1990s), sometimes not (Alonso now).

[farsailor]

Obviously it's not just about skill but about opportunity. Hill and Villeneuve won in 1996 and 1997, and while some might argue that they were good drivers, I don't think they were up there with most champions.

 

I think it was clear for everyone who watched F1 back then that JV was right up there with MS and MH. And considering he wins in pretty much every kind of car he drives, yeah i argue he is a good driver. (still is btw finished 14th at this years Indy 500 in his first open wheel race since 2006). Besides, his personality alone earns him a title!

 

My money is on Lewis this year. And i think Alonso still is the best driver out there. He and Vettel will win more titles. Bottas and Riccardo look strong this year and might win titles in the future as well (altough Massa and Vettel has had bad luck this year which makes them look worse than they are compared to their team mates).

[M2000-5]

F1 (and motorsport in general) is a sport based hugely on two factors: driver and car (a third one: politics intra-team or powers beyond that I will not try to analyse, check Hamilton-Alonso at Macca).

 

Driver: form, mental status, motivation, racecraft, talent, decision making (on track, off track), driving style etc contribute on how good a driver is. Lots of factors here to determine how good a driver is. One maybe be the best in all these areas but... can be shadowed by a mediocre car. Or one can be rather good or even average and can have a great car, for example Eddie almost won it with Ferrari in '99.

 

Car: aero efficiency, power unit, reliability, speed, etc. Yet, you can have a great car for one driver and lousy for another, Ricciardo and Vettel, Alonso and Raikkonen come to mind this season. So give a fast-reliable car matching a drivers style and he might excel (if he is a good one) or he might crack somewhere (for example having a good adversary in the team). Give a slow car or one that breaks apart every now and then and even the best driver in the world cannot do much about it in the long run. He might be lucky and win 1-2 races (that first lap at rainy Donigton Park comes to mind) but that will be the most of it. Numerous examples of good drivers in slower or unreliable cars come to mind (Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Vettel this year,  and the list can go on).

 

So I will base my prediction only on car performance and current form.

 

Merc is good and might be good a la Schumacher Ferrari in the next 3-4-5 years. Leaving intrateam politics out, I'd say that both of them have an equal chance to win the next championships. It could be Hamilton it could be Rosberg, both seem to exploit what is given at the fullest. Hamilton might have the edge in racecraft but it seems that mentally he is struggling a bit (the mental part is my own personal opinion). That could cost him dearly. If any of those two leave the team then the replacement could possibly have a winning material in hand but also a strong adversary in Hamilton or Rosberg. Could it be Vettel, Alonso, Ricciardo? Who knows (here comes the decision making part of the driver)...

 

Further than 4-5 years is impossible to predict. You cannot imagine which car will be the best, Merc dominance, Williams resurrection, Red Bull coming back around or Ferrari pulling a rabbit from a hat and taking all by surprise. And who knows which driver will be around and how well he will have predicted where to go. So 4-5 years from now is impossible. Even a year is impossible, afterall who was to say in 2010 that Red Bull and Vettel would dominate the sport for 4 years and even more so that they are quite far back this year.

[Jimisgod]

10 years ago Ferrari was on top of the world, Renault was on the brink of success, Williams was having a bit of a dud year but no one thought they'd only get one win in the next 10. Only Mclaren is close to where they were back then (but worse).

Now Renault has long left the sport as a works team after two titles, RBR came out of nowhere from the remains of Jaguar to take four, Mercedes dumped Mclaren and bought out the ex Honda team - of all things - and looks like scoring one.

[Dick Dastardly]

Probably more relevant....who is the next Adrian Newey?  Given that Adrian is moving to pastures new, Red Bull may suffer from car aero / handling problems lets say, as opposed to engine down-on-power issues in the next couple of years.  Who, after Adrian, amongst all the teams is currently the best designer?  

[OSX]

Never again: Button & Raikkonen (both due to retire soon)

Agree on Button but I think it's too early to write Raikkonen off. If Ferrari manages to produce a car to his liking he'll most certainly be back in the hunt next year.

[William Hunt]

Rosberg, Bianchi and Hamilton one more. Possibly Ricciardo.

[travbrad]

Probably more relevant....who is the next Adrian Newey?  Given that Adrian is moving to pastures new, Red Bull may suffer from car aero / handling problems lets say, as opposed to engine down-on-power issues in the next couple of years.  Who, after Adrian, amongst all the teams is currently the best designer?  

 

Indeed.  This could actually make F1 a closer competition in the coming years, because I can't see anyone who can change the fortunes of a team so dramatically as Adrian Newey.  Even the car he built this year is great.  With a better engine they'd probably be right there with Mercedes.  It will also depend on how much Ferrari and Renault can catch up on engine performance, and how strong the Honda is.

 

Hamilton and Rosberg obviously have good chances of winning.  It seems like Hamilton has a small edge over Rosberg though, so it will take some luck for Rosberg to win (as we are seeing this year).

 

Ricciardo and Vettel obviously have a good chance too.  They are both young and should have a long time in F1 and are already in a good position for next year if Renault can close the gap to Mercedes.

 

Alonso obviously could win one even without the best car, but he needs to at least have something competitive to have a chance.  If he only ends up with 2 WDCs it would be a huge under-representation of his talent, but he is running out of years in F1.

 

Then there are a bunch of drivers who could easily win if they get a good car.  Bottas and Hulkenberg especially I think would be formidable in a top car.   Button, Magnussen, Grosjean, Bianchi, Raikkonen, etc could also win if they get a great car.  Raikkonen not very likely though since he is teamed up against Alonso and likely to retire.  Button also probably reaching the end of his career in the not to distant future.

Edited by travbrad, 07 August 2014 - 14:47.

[sopa]

Agree on Button but I think it's too early to write Raikkonen off. If Ferrari manages to produce a car to his liking he'll most certainly be back in the hunt next year.

 

What if McLaren manages to build a car, which is to Button's liking?   ;)

[Jimisgod]

Honestly, Kimi or Button? Neither has many years left and there are drivers in much better form than Kimi. Alonso would beat him in the same car. So to Hamilton, Rosberg, Vettel, Ricciardo, Bottas and probably Hulkenberg.

Kimi has been gradually losing pace from the middle of 2013 and I think the thumping this year has ruined his mental state once and for all.

[PlatenGlass]

What if McLaren manages to build a car, which is to Button's liking?   ;)

And without having Alonso as his team-mate, you'd have to say that Button is in a better position than Raikkonen.

[Gyno]

It all comes down to the car and who are lucky enough to sit in that car.

[TomNokoe]

Hamilton will win this year and next.

[Doughnut King]

The "won't win a race, never mind a championship" drivers:

 

Ericsson, Kobayashi, Chilton, Gutierrez, Sutil, Vergne, Grosjean, Perez and Hulkenberg.

 

The "won't win a race again, never mind a championship" drivers:

 

Raikkonen, Maldonado, Button, Massa.

 

The rest either have a championship winning car or have enough talent to stay around until they can get a such a car (back), though I think Alonso will probably see out his career with Ferrari regardless of their chamipnship potential.

[GoldenColt]

Hamilton will win this year and next.

 

I feel like it's not meant to be for 2014 but we'll see.

[Nemo1965]

Such predictions are so hard... At the end of 1982 it seemed inevitable Michele Alboreto was going to be worldchampion. Well...

 

For a long time I believed I thought Alain Prost was just too unlucky to become worldchampion, and for a long time I seemed right: after 1981 (led most GP's), 1982 (led most GP'), 1983 (lost to Piquet), 1984 (Lost to Lauda who he destroyed pace-wise the whole year). Okay, and then he finally clinched it in 1985, and suddenly starting winning even with luck (1986).

 

Then there was 1990, with Jean Alesi, scoring a second place in Phoenix. That race with Senna... Alesi had to become world champion. We all know what happened there.

 

Heinz-Harald Frentzen was rated higher than Schumacher when they came in the direction of F1, just as Carl Wendlinger. Well, Schumacher...

 

Bottas, Ricciardo, they are good enough to become world champion. But you need a lot of luck, and you need to develop as a driver as a person to land yourself in the right circumstances.

Edited by Nemo1965, 08 August 2014 - 16:47.

[Jimisgod]

Perez just seems to be fortunate, don't think he'd be a champion, but a race winner ala Trulli or Fisi.

If I had to guess, Ricciardo and Bottas are the only likely WDC from the latest crop. Kvyat will be overshadowed by Dan, KMag seems as though he'd be a #2 to an Alonso if he arrives at Mclaren. Bianchi is still impossible to tell after all this time, could he be another Alonso building from a true backmarker team?

I have faith Hulk could do what Rosberg is doing if given the chance - big if.

[eronrules]

i can safely say who won't win another one title bar miracles ... 

 

1. Button

2. kimi

3, Alonso

 

the 30s club

[Dick Dastardly]

I thought the Gods had decided Mansell  wouldn't win the WDC....he'd have won 1986 until that tyre blowout in OZ  14 [?] laps from the finish......and his practice crash in Japan '87 ruled him out that year as well. But they relented in '92...  

[RSNS]

We just don't know. Judging by speed and mental stability, and given a good car, my suggestions would be:

 

Alonso

Vettel

Hamilton

 

And, of course, Ricciardo has been hugely impressive.

 

Raikkonen, Button, Massa, etc. are not very impressive at the moment, and I believe something really surprising would have to happen for them to win a championship.

[bourbon]

A lot of drivers have the talent to win a title, not only the current champions, at the end of the day is all about the car. I think is irrelevant to talk about future champions solely based on talent and we can't predict who is going to have a winning car in the coming years, maybe Mercedes has the advantage but things change quickly in F1.

 

This is true, but the opposite is true also.  Whether its 2 cars challenging for the title like this season or 5 like in 2010, it is also all about the driver because when it is close, driver error can be a huge separator.  Car + Driver - lack in either department is a recipe for failure. But I agree with you that it is not possible to know who will combine with the cars in the future for WDC.

[DutchQuicksilver]

Honestly, Kimi or Button? Neither has many years left and there are drivers in much better form than Kimi. Alonso would beat him in the same car. So to Hamilton, Rosberg, Vettel, Ricciardo, Bottas and probably Hulkenberg.

Kimi has been gradually losing pace from the middle of 2013 and I think the thumping this year has ruined his mental state once and for all.

[kaisellgren]

Kimi has been gradually losing pace from the middle of 2013 and I think the thumping this year has ruined his mental state once and for all.

 

I don't think his mental state can be affected. I have always found him a very sensitive driver. When he gets the car he wants, he's the best on the grid. When he does not, he's the opposite.

[PayasYouRace]

Every decade has its surprise champions. I mean, how many were writing Jenson Button off about 10 years ago? "He'd never win a race, let alone a championship," they said. Then let's not forget the Montoyas and Kubicas who were expected to win the championship, and then for one reason or another never did.

[HamiltonFanboy]

More than likely to win one

Vettel is virtually guaranteed another one whether at Red Bull or elsewhere

Alonso is likely to get one just because Ferrari have to get it right at some point

Rosberg is likely due to him probably being at Mercedes longer than Hamilton

Hamilton should get a couple on pure speed but he always seems to make it harder for himself than it should be in championship situations. If he does win one this year or in the next few years its going to be in a massive battle with his team-mate which makes it harder.

 

Probably

Ricciardo is in the next tier as he is completely unproven in a championship battle. He has the pace and racing ability but you just never know until a driver has the championship pressure on his back.

 

In the right situation

Button could take a championship in a dominant car. In this years Mercedes for example I would say he would have a great chance.

Hulkenburg I put on the same level as Button. Consistent, reliable but the peaks are just not there.

Bottas with a good team. Whether he ever moves up to a top team is a big question here.

Magnussen seems to be fast enough. Very raw though so he could go either way.

 

 

Dont see anyone else really having a chance. Kimi is past his best, Perez is all over the place consistency wise, Grosjean probably wont get the car but I also think he wont have the speed at the top level. All the others are journeymen(Sutil, Massa) or completely unproven(Bianchi, Kvyat)

 

So in 10 years I will go with

Vettel 6x WDC

Alonso 3x WDC

Hamilton 3x WDC

Rosberg 1x WDC

Ricciardo 1x WDC

 

That leaves 3 for newcomers or long shots. All fantasy though, nobody can predict even a year ahead never mind 10.