The standings after Belgium:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Makarias 1178 74 2) kismet 1175 70 3) d_view7 1170 74 4) mark f1 1161 61 5) aray 1154 45 6) AcuraF1 1148 73 7) Brawn BGP 001 1144 76 8) DutchQuicksilver 1141 60 9) fisichella_2001 1139 76 10) noikeee 1138 75 11) Grayson 1136 76 12) wattoroos 1135 74 13) Estwald 1133 74 = Iranie 1133 76 15) Bleu 1126 65 16) Anderis 1123 76 = Kingshark 1123 62 18) Wander 1121 71 19) Fastcake 1113 67 20) skylark68 1111 59 21) scheivlak 1105 76 22) Barty 1102 69 23) HeidfeldsBeard 1099 59 24) LB 1087 69 = Wlleiotl 1087 66 26) an1res 1080 58 27) KWSN-DSM 1078 66 28) Apex 1072 59 29) Costaz 1039 59 30) M2000-5 1010 59
This is just beautiful.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 187,4 114,7 30 Bott 95,9 64,3 13 Rosb 89,2 74,1 3 Hülk 83,1 56,9 7 Verg 76,6 26,8 12 Hami 74,0 52,9 1 Kvya 71,6 22,2 13 Vett 66,1 47,8 3 Alon 59,8 43,4 0 Pere 53,9 32,7 3 Bian 45,1 7,7 11 Butt 44,4 28,5 0 Mass 32,3 19,6 0 Magn 31,1 21,3 0 Räik 22,7 14,6 0 Gros 17,6 8,8 1
Daniel Ricciardo becomes the first 100% surprise driver of 2014! Congratulations!
No other driver has even reached their expectation mark yet, but Bottas is almost there and may also pass his 100% surprise mark later, just like a few others.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Ricciardo Rosberg Bottas Räikkönen Vettel * Potential 331 * Potential 395 * Potential 285 M2000-5 267 * Potential 273 * Forecast 247 * Forecast 348 * Forecast 174 d_view7 258 fisichella_2001 204 * Current 156 M2000-5 296 Wlleiotl 170 AcuraF1 215 kismet 200 kismet 135 Barty 292 KWSN-DSM 168 * Potential 214 aray 194 aray 132 noikeee 271 noikeee 160 Barty 204 skylark68 189 Makarias 131 Apex 270 Barty 145 Costaz 203 AcuraF1 188 mark f1 125 Wlleiotl 270 AcuraF1 144 Iranie 200 scheivlak 186 d_view7 124 HeidfeldsBeard 268 Iranie 140 Wander 192 Makarias 184 AcuraF1 111 Estwald 266 Anderis 137 Fastcake 188 DutchQuicksilver181 DutchQuicksilver102 skylark68 265 Makarias 132 DutchQuicksilver179 Bleu 180 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Bleu 255 d_view7 130 HeidfeldsBeard 178 HeidfeldsBeard 172 Barty 92 Makarias 255 wattoroos 130 Kingshark 177 LB 170 skylark68 89 Anderis 254 Estwald 121 wattoroos 177 d_view7 168 Brawn BGP 001 88 scheivlak 254 fisichella_2001 121 an1res 175 mark f1 160 Bleu 87 LB 250 an1res 120 Bleu 171 Kingshark 159 noikeee 87 Kingshark 248 LB 120 LB 165 * Forecast 155 Estwald 84 Fastcake 246 Brawn BGP 001 118 Anderis 164 Wander 150 fisichella_2001 83 d_view7 245 scheivlak 116 KWSN-DSM 163 Costaz 148 wattoroos 82 mark f1 245 Grayson 110 Apex 160 Grayson 145 Kingshark 81 AcuraF1 242 * Current 110 aray 160 Iranie 145 Grayson 80 fisichella_2001 242 Wander 107 Grayson 155 Barty 138 Iranie 80 kismet 240 M2000-5 106 Makarias 153 noikeee 136 Wander 78 Brawn BGP 001 236 Fastcake 101 scheivlak 152 wattoroos 133 an1res 75 DutchQuicksilver234 Bleu 100 mark f1 150 Brawn BGP 001 131 Anderis 67 Wander 233 kismet 100 Wlleiotl 150 an1res 130 Fastcake 66 Costaz 229 DutchQuicksilver 96 fisichella_2001 148 Apex 110 Apex 60 Iranie 227 Kingshark 96 skylark68 148 Estwald 106 Costaz 57 KWSN-DSM 225 aray 95 kismet 145 Anderis 104 LB 55 Grayson 220 mark f1 90 Estwald 135 Fastcake 98 Wlleiotl 50 * Current 220 skylark68 89 noikeee 121 * Current 98 scheivlak 49 wattoroos 219 Apex 70 Brawn BGP 001 111 KWSN-DSM 80 KWSN-DSM 40 aray 206 HeidfeldsBeard 62 * Forecast 62 Wlleiotl 80 M2000-5 6 an1res 200 Costaz 46 * Current 39 M2000-5 76
Let's spend the rest of the season cursing the missed opportunity to score heaps of points from Dan the Man.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Button Alonso Perez Kvyat Hülkenberg * Potential 243 * Potential 296 * Potential 208 * Potential 183 * Potential 245 Costaz 238 M2000-5 278 an1res 100 an1res 35 skylark68 122 Barty 237 HeidfeldsBeard 256 skylark68 91 mark f1 25 * Forecast 111 Apex 230 aray 252 KWSN-DSM 90 Iranie 23 KWSN-DSM 110 Brawn BGP 001 224 AcuraF1 235 Costaz 87 KWSN-DSM 20 Makarias 110 Fastcake 221 an1res 225 Wlleiotl 80 Anderis 19 Costaz 109 LB 200 d_view7 222 Makarias 77 Bleu 19 Kingshark 102 Estwald 177 fisichella_2001 217 Iranie 75 Fastcake 18 an1res 100 Wander 171 LB 215 Grayson 70 fisichella_2001 18 Estwald 98 scheivlak 162 Costaz 210 Kingshark 70 scheivlak 18 scheivlak 96 KWSN-DSM 160 Fastcake 209 mark f1 70 noikeee 17 Anderis 94 noikeee 155 Barty 204 Anderis 68 wattoroos 16 Brawn BGP 001 92 Kingshark 151 Anderis 201 Brawn BGP 001 66 Brawn BGP 001 15 fisichella_2001 92 Wlleiotl 150 DutchQuicksilver201 DutchQuicksilver 66 Grayson 14 Grayson 92 skylark68 149 Iranie 200 fisichella_2001 66 * Forecast 13 aray 90 DutchQuicksilver146 kismet 200 scheivlak 64 aray 10 HeidfeldsBeard 88 Makarias 146 wattoroos 196 d_view7 63 Wlleiotl 10 d_view7 85 HeidfeldsBeard 145 Wander 195 Estwald 61 Kingshark 9 mark f1 85 kismet 145 Bleu 194 kismet 60 kismet 9 Fastcake 83 aray 140 Brawn BGP 001 194 Wander 58 * Current 8 Wander 82 M2000-5 140 * Forecast 192 wattoroos 56 Makarias 6 Wlleiotl 80 Grayson 125 skylark68 192 * Forecast 52 Apex 5 Iranie 75 Iranie 125 Apex 190 Bleu 52 Costaz 5 kismet 75 wattoroos 119 KWSN-DSM 190 HeidfeldsBeard 50 DutchQuicksilver 5 DutchQuicksilver 71 mark f1 115 Grayson 184 Apex 45 Estwald 5 Apex 70 fisichella_2001 113 scheivlak 184 AcuraF1 44 LB 5 * Current 70 Anderis 112 Makarias 183 Fastcake 44 Wander 5 wattoroos 68 Bleu 110 Kingshark 178 M2000-5 43 HeidfeldsBeard 3 M2000-5 67 d_view7 110 mark f1 175 noikeee 43 Barty 1 noikeee 65 * Forecast 108 Wlleiotl 170 * Current 33 AcuraF1 0 Bleu 63 an1res 100 Estwald 162 aray 30 d_view7 0 AcuraF1 61 AcuraF1 79 noikeee 162 LB 25 M2000-5 0 LB 60 * Current 68 * Current 121 Barty 24 skylark68 0 Barty 42
Hülkenberg's points scoring pace has taken a dip lately...
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Makarias 1582,4 12,2 noikeee 1558,1 7,6 fisichella_2001 1547,8 7,2 kismet 1539,0 5,2 skylark68 1532,8 3,5 Brawn BGP 001 1524,5 9,0 Bleu 1515,6 11,6 AcuraF1 1512,1 0,9 Anderis 1505,1 2,4 d_view7 1501,0 5,2 scheivlak 1496,3 14,3 mark f1 1489,7 12,7 Kingshark 1487,6 11,9 Barty 1482,6 -0,1 DutchQuicksilver 1476,0 5,2 LB 1475,5 -13,4 Wander 1473,8 5,7 Iranie 1472,1 2,4 HeidfeldsBeard 1470,8 3,0 wattoroos 1468,1 5,1 aray 1466,8 3,0 Grayson 1463,1 11,1 Wlleiotl 1449,4 14,7 Estwald 1449,3 9,1 Apex 1439,6 -15,0 KWSN-DSM 1437,8 14,6 Fastcake 1411,3 2,2 Costaz 1384,8 2,0 M2000-5 1381,8 -21,2 an1res 1358,4 -1,6
Print it and frame it! I did!
