The standings after Italy:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Makarias 1269 91 2) kismet 1254 79 3) d_view7 1248 78 4) mark f1 1240 79 5) AcuraF1 1239 91 6) Brawn BGP 001 1229 85 = fisichella_2001 1229 90 = noikeee 1229 91 9) Estwald 1223 90 10) DutchQuicksilver 1216 75 11) Iranie 1213 80 12) Anderis 1212 89 13) aray 1209 55 14) wattoroos 1208 73 15) Bleu 1205 79 16) Kingshark 1202 79 17) Grayson 1197 61 18) Wander 1195 74 19) scheivlak 1190 85 = skylark68 1190 79 21) Barty 1187 85 22) Fastcake 1184 71 23) HeidfeldsBeard 1178 79 24) LB 1170 83 = Wlleiotl 1170 83 26) Apex 1151 79 27) KWSN-DSM 1148 70 28) an1res 1126 46 29) Costaz 1109 70 30) M2000-5 1081 71
A few extremely talented players got a 91 score this round, missing points only for Ricciardo's P5 finish.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 199,4 122,1 30 Bott 106,4 71,3 20 Rosb 96,5 80,1 10 Hami 83,7 59,8 2 Hülk 83,1 56,9 7 Verg 76,6 26,8 12 Kvya 71,6 22,2 13 Vett 71,5 51,7 5 Pere 63,7 38,6 3 Alon 59,8 43,4 0 Butt 47,0 30,1 0 Bian 45,1 7,7 11 Mass 44,4 27,0 0 Magn 32,0 21,8 0 Räik 23,8 15,3 0 Gros 17,6 8,8 1
Valtteri Bottas beats his expectation mark! Nico Rosberg is one top five finish away from his own mark, so that would be next race then?
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Rosberg Massa Bottas Ricciardo * Potential 366 * Potential 388 * Potential 205 * Potential 272 * Potential 316 M2000-5 360 * Forecast 348 M2000-5 203 * Forecast 178 * Forecast 243 Apex 324 M2000-5 296 Wlleiotl 200 Wlleiotl 170 * Current 166 LB 320 Barty 292 Estwald 180 KWSN-DSM 168 kismet 135 * Forecast 316 noikeee 271 KWSN-DSM 169 noikeee 160 aray 132 noikeee 298 Apex 270 noikeee 169 Barty 145 Makarias 131 Brawn BGP 001 284 Wlleiotl 270 wattoroos 153 AcuraF1 144 mark f1 125 Bleu 280 HeidfeldsBeard 268 DutchQuicksilver142 Iranie 140 d_view7 124 AcuraF1 275 Estwald 266 Iranie 140 Anderis 137 AcuraF1 111 fisichella_2001 275 skylark68 265 kismet 140 Makarias 132 DutchQuicksilver102 kismet 270 Bleu 255 LB 140 d_view7 130 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Anderis 268 Makarias 255 AcuraF1 133 wattoroos 130 Barty 92 skylark68 268 Anderis 254 aray 130 * Current 122 skylark68 89 Wander 265 scheivlak 254 Makarias 126 Estwald 121 Brawn BGP 001 88 scheivlak 258 LB 250 Fastcake 121 fisichella_2001 121 Bleu 87 wattoroos 255 Kingshark 248 an1res 120 an1res 120 noikeee 87 Fastcake 252 Fastcake 246 Anderis 119 LB 120 Estwald 84 Wlleiotl 250 d_view7 245 Costaz 119 Brawn BGP 001 118 fisichella_2001 83 DutchQuicksilver248 mark f1 245 mark f1 115 scheivlak 116 wattoroos 82 Makarias 248 AcuraF1 242 scheivlak 113 Grayson 110 Kingshark 81 Kingshark 247 fisichella_2001 242 Grayson 105 Wander 107 Grayson 80 Grayson 245 kismet 240 skylark68 102 M2000-5 106 Iranie 80 Estwald 242 * Current 238 Brawn BGP 001 100 Fastcake 101 Wander 78 HeidfeldsBeard 240 Brawn BGP 001 236 fisichella_2001 100 Bleu 100 an1res 75 Barty 239 DutchQuicksilver234 Kingshark 94 kismet 100 Anderis 67 aray 238 Wander 233 Apex 90 DutchQuicksilver 96 Fastcake 66 KWSN-DSM 238 Costaz 229 d_view7 85 Kingshark 96 Apex 60 Costaz 237 Iranie 227 Wander 82 aray 95 Costaz 57 Iranie 227 KWSN-DSM 225 Bleu 80 mark f1 90 LB 55 mark f1 225 Grayson 220 * Forecast 80 skylark68 89 Wlleiotl 50 * Current 216 wattoroos 219 HeidfeldsBeard 76 Apex 70 scheivlak 49 d_view7 203 aray 206 Barty 70 HeidfeldsBeard 62 KWSN-DSM 40 an1res 160 an1res 200 * Current 55 Costaz 46 M2000-5 6
People are quickly running out of points to score from Rosberg and Bottas, but there are still a few drops left to squeeze out. 100% surprises are on the cards.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Vettel Perez Button Räikkönen Magnussen * Potential 256 * Potential 189 Costaz 238 M2000-5 267 * Potential 188 fisichella_2001 204 an1res 100 Barty 237 d_view7 258 Kingshark 173 kismet 200 skylark68 91 Apex 230 AcuraF1 215 Wander 165 aray 194 KWSN-DSM 90 Brawn BGP 001 224 Barty 204 KWSN-DSM 160 skylark68 189 Costaz 87 * Potential 222 Costaz 203 Brawn BGP 001 154 AcuraF1 188 Wlleiotl 80 Fastcake 221 Iranie 200 Costaz 154 scheivlak 186 Makarias 77 LB 200 Wander 192 Apex 150 Makarias 184 Iranie 75 Estwald 177 * Potential 191 scheivlak 149 DutchQuicksilver181 Grayson 70 Wander 171 Fastcake 188 Fastcake 147 Bleu 180 Kingshark 70 scheivlak 162 DutchQuicksilver179 Estwald 146 HeidfeldsBeard 172 mark f1 70 KWSN-DSM 160 HeidfeldsBeard 178 Barty 135 LB 170 Anderis 68 noikeee 155 Kingshark 177 HeidfeldsBeard 132 d_view7 168 Brawn BGP 001 66 Kingshark 151 wattoroos 177 Wlleiotl 120 mark f1 160 DutchQuicksilver 66 Wlleiotl 150 an1res 175 noikeee 119 Kingshark 159 fisichella_2001 66 skylark68 149 Bleu 171 DutchQuicksilver118 * Forecast 155 scheivlak 64 DutchQuicksilver146 LB 165 aray 115 Wander 150 d_view7 63 Makarias 146 Anderis 164 Makarias 114 Costaz 148 Estwald 61 HeidfeldsBeard 145 KWSN-DSM 163 Anderis 112 Grayson 145 kismet 60 kismet 145 Apex 160 kismet 110 Iranie 145 Wander 58 aray 140 aray 160 LB 110 Barty 138 * Forecast 57 M2000-5 140 Grayson 155 Bleu 107 noikeee 136 wattoroos 56 Grayson 125 Makarias 153 fisichella_2001 102 wattoroos 133 Bleu 52 Iranie 125 scheivlak 152 wattoroos 102 Brawn BGP 001 131 HeidfeldsBeard 50 wattoroos 119 mark f1 150 d_view7 101 an1res 130 Apex 45 mark f1 115 Wlleiotl 150 an1res 100 Apex 110 AcuraF1 44 fisichella_2001 113 fisichella_2001 148 Grayson 100 Estwald 106 Fastcake 44 Anderis 112 skylark68 148 skylark68 100 * Current 106 M2000-5 43 Bleu 110 kismet 145 Iranie 80 Anderis 104 noikeee 43 d_view7 110 Estwald 135 mark f1 75 Fastcake 98 * Current 39 * Forecast 105 noikeee 121 AcuraF1 62 KWSN-DSM 80 aray 30 an1res 100 Brawn BGP 001 111 * Forecast 56 Wlleiotl 80 LB 25 AcuraF1 79 * Forecast 60 M2000-5 55 M2000-5 76 Barty 24 * Current 72 * Current 41 * Current 38
Button too has dropped out of surprise contention.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Makarias 1581,8 -0,6 noikeee 1564,5 6,5 fisichella_2001 1545,2 -2,7 kismet 1537,5 -1,5 skylark68 1522,8 -10,0 Brawn BGP 001 1522,3 -2,2 AcuraF1 1508,3 -3,8 Bleu 1507,8 -7,8 Anderis 1501,3 -3,8 scheivlak 1501,2 4,9 mark f1 1500,4 10,7 d_view7 1499,5 -1,5 Kingshark 1499,5 11,9 LB 1483,5 8,0 DutchQuicksilver 1474,5 -1,5 Wander 1472,6 -1,2 Iranie 1468,3 -3,8 Grayson 1468,2 5,1 Barty 1466,2 -16,4 wattoroos 1463,3 -4,8 Estwald 1462,8 13,5 Wlleiotl 1462,7 13,3 aray 1460,5 -6,2 HeidfeldsBeard 1460,2 -10,6 Apex 1448,2 8,6 KWSN-DSM 1428,9 -8,9 Fastcake 1404,3 -6,9 M2000-5 1393,1 11,3 Costaz 1376,9 -7,9 an1res 1357,1 -1,3
Minor changes in the forecasts as Hamilton and Massa go up and Alonso down.
