169 replies to this topic

[Brother Fox]

The more I think about it the more I want someone (anyone) to get stooged by the double points thing.

At least someone will be punished for not making noise about the stupidity of it months ago.

[blub]

I think the teams are really distracted by so many things right now, budgets, reliability, drivers for 2015, keeping alive for 2015, this issue, which seems will be gone in 2015 is distant to them. I agree, this thing could really sting if it plays out in a way we see as bad. Just imagine a Red Bull driver winning it all! I think the more important WCC will be decided before the last race, so, the important prize will not be part of this odd ball scoring change.

[bourbon]

Nico has not beaten Lewis in a straight fight since Austria. The last time Nico beat Lewis in a 2 car finish was Germany (when Lewis was hindered from starting at the back).

 

All current momentum is with Lewis in terms of driver performance. Nico was very unlucky at Singapore. But the 3 races before that, Nico has really been off-key.

 

Unlike others. I did not think Nico was terrible at Hungary, just modest, whilst Lewis performed much better, At SPA, Nico raced his worse race of the season. At Italy he finished behind Lewis, despite Lewis having a mechanical error off the line.

 

Nico's form could change, but there is little indication that it will do. Japan looks promising for Lewis despite his past form there, as the Hard tyre is present which he has held a advantage over Nico on all year.

 

Reliability can swing either way, but on current driver performance, Lewis is the firm favorite in my book.

 

Well I think Nico was under a lot of outside pressure during the last few races - some of that orchestrated by Lewis in the press, imo.  So I would not be so quick to conclude we were seeing Nico's "true form" the last few races in particular.   But that's all over now.   Let's see if Nico looks more like his old self with that bit of burden removed. 

 

I don't care who wins.  I think Hamilton is more experienced in title battles and potentially a tad quicker, so on the whole, I agree he has an advantage - just not for the same reasons.  Again, may the best man win - on track and pursuant to the current regulations.

Edited by bourbon, 29 September 2014 - 04:39.

[Dmitriy_Guller]

As someone else pointed out, one of the fundamental rules of statistics is that factors are held constant.

Not necessarily.

Edited by Dmitriy_Guller, 29 September 2014 - 11:48.

[Collombin]

As someone else pointed out, one of the fundamental rules of statistics is that factors are held constant. Rarely the case in F1.

Fine then. Let's change them. Pick your own.

The only potentially dodgy bit in the stats provided was the assumption that the 1/7 DNF rate that paipa chose based on history is not necessarily an accurate figure to use for extrapolation. Maybe not, but to me it seemed the most reasonable one. However, for various reasons you might decide that this figure will be either higher or lower than that over the next 5 races.

So, below is the revised list of percentages based on any assumption you want. If you think 1 in 5 is a better guess than 1 in 7, then use that instead - I've covered from 1 in 2 (a highly pessimistic 50% chance of a DNF) down to 1 in 10.

The percentages given against each option are the % chances that the number of DNFs in the remainder of the season will be equivalent (with an Abu Dhabi DNF hurting twice as much), effectively the chances that the "DNF luck" will be fair over the rest of season.

1 in 2 = 19%
1 in 3 = 21%
1 in 4 = 24%
1 in 5 = 27%
1 in 6 = 30%
1 in 7 = 34%
1 in 8 = 37%
1 in 9 = 40%
1 in 10 = 43%

Executive summary - it is unlikely that the luck will be evenly shared, especially if the cars get less reliable (unless DNF rates go above 50%, which is too ludicrous an outcome to consider).

[Dmitriy_Guller]

If DNF rates go above 50%, then Ricciardo is looking pretty good for the title.

[Fatgadget]

If DNF rates go above 50%, then Ricciardo is looking pretty good for the title.

No chance mate. Should the possibility of that scenario ever arise, Merc will just throw all their resources onto whichever driver is out front and the other will be instructed to be the rear gunner.....Come to think of it,are you just having a bit of a laugh ?

[sennafan24]

Well I think Nico was under a lot of outside pressure during the last few races - some of that orchestrated by Lewis in the press, imo.  So I would not be so quick to conclude we were seeing Nico's "true form" the last few races in particular.   But that's all over now.   Let's see if Nico looks more like his old self with that bit of burden removed. 

I never said that was his true form.

 

Overall in 2014, Nico has been more inconsistent than Lewis in race trim.  Nico has had quite a few choice performances, but also a few dire performances as well. Some of Lewis's race day performances have been better than others, but he has always performed to a decent standard when given the chance

 

Which is partially why I see Lewis as a safer bet. Current form and consistent form are both in his favor (in regards to 2014).

 

Lewis's comments have not had any effect in my opinion. Nico was strong in qualifying at Singapore, running Lewis very close. Even before SPA, Nico's race day performance could dip significantly. Austria, Spain and Canada where much better than Sepang and China for example

Edited by sennafan24, 29 September 2014 - 16:09.

[Longtimefan]

Quite frankly I would be amazed if Lewis didn't win it now.  I personally believe its his to lose.  (barring reliability issues)

 

I don't care which of the two win really, I just hope whoever wins it, doesn't take it purely on the double points race as that imo would ruin the season for me.

[hollowstar]

Well I think Nico was under a lot of outside pressure during the last few races - some of that orchestrated by Lewis in the press, imo.  So I would not be so quick to conclude we were seeing Nico's "true form" the last few races in particular.   But that's all over now.   Let's see if Nico looks more like his old self with that bit of burden removed. 

 

How did Lewis orchestrate that? I assume by saying what Nico had said during the post Spa meeting?  I think if anything, it was putting more pressure on Merc than on Rosberg, but maybe. You also say "some of that", so  what other outside pressure was Nico under? 

 

And, if that pressure was something orchestrated by Lewis (I don't think that's the case though), it seems to have worked out pretty well. So why would it suddenly stop now? 

[Dmitriy_Guller]

No chance mate. Should the possibility of that scenario ever arise, Merc will just throw all their resources onto whichever driver is out front and the other will be instructed to be the rear gunner.....Come to think of it,are you just having a bit of a laugh ?

Mercedes would also have to instruct the car of the lead driver to not break down.

[bourbon]

I never said that was his true form.

 

Overall in 2014, Nico has been more inconsistent than Lewis in race trim.  Nico has had quite a few choice performances, but also a few dire performances as well. Some of Lewis's race day performances have been better than others, but he has always performed to a decent standard when given the chance

 

Which is partially why I see Lewis as a safer bet. Current form and consistent form are both in his favor (in regards to 2014).

 

Lewis's comments have not had any effect in my opinion. Nico was strong in qualifying at Singapore, running Lewis very close. Even before SPA, Nico's race day performance could dip significantly. Austria, Spain and Canada where much better than Sepang and China for example

 

Yeah I don't think the comments did - I meant everything that happened after SPA and carried over to the next races.

 

 

How did Lewis orchestrate that? I assume by saying what Nico had said during the post Spa meeting? 

 

Yes

 I think if anything, it was putting more pressure on Merc than on Rosberg, but maybe. 

 

Well that wouldn't matter so much as they are in support positions and not driving a race car.   The pressure on Nico was the worst.

 

You also say "some of that", so  what other outside pressure was Nico under? 

 

 

Lauda and Wolff's statements, the press running away with Hamilton's comments, the crowd booing at the merest pretense, etc.

 

And, if that pressure was something orchestrated by Lewis (I don't think that's the case though), it seems to have worked out pretty well. So why would it suddenly stop now? 

 

 

Because Lewis and the English speaking media do not have any influence over the majority in the remaining races.  No more booing; the press will have to move on; the Merc bosses have learned their lesson and so the off track painful bits will suddenly stop.

Edited by bourbon, 30 September 2014 - 03:52.

[hollowstar]

Yeah I don't think the comments did - I meant everything that happened after SPA and carried over to the next races.

 

 

 

Yes

 

Well that wouldn't matter so much as they are in support positions and not driving a race car.   The pressure on Nico was the worst.

 

 

Lauda and Wolff's statements, the press running away with Hamilton's comments, the crowd booing at the merest pretense, etc.

 

 

Because Lewis and the English speaking media do not have any influence over the majority in the remaining races.  No more booing; the press will have to move on; the Merc bosses have learned their lesson and so the off track painful bits will suddenly stop.

 

Thank you for taking the time to explain/answer point by point. I do appreciate. 

 

I do not see all that as pressure exerted by Lewis, but more by the consequences of his own actions. I don't think he has anyone to blame but himself for that pressure.  Instead of moving on from Hungary, Nico ruminated for weeks, kept the frustration inside, and tried to "prove a point" that he shouldn't have. It backfired eventually, but he was 100% responsible for all this, and for the crowd booing him. Lewis was never the one driver to have people on his side, and I don't think he himself expected most fans to support him over Nico, or to boo Nico.

 

Lewis let people know what happened out of frustration, that was his right, but I don't think it was in any way done in order to win a popularity contest in any kind.   It's the same kind of spontaneous reaction that he had after Monaco this year, or after Spa's qualy in 2012, the famous telemetry tweet.  He was quite criticized for both of these, but that's just the way he is: when he feels he was deprived of a fair shot at victory, he wants people to know and see things as they are, rather than, say, the team PR bullshit. 

 

One last question: how can you be so sure the booing is over? What if Nico gets booed at Suzuka?  Even journalists, stubborn as they are when they need to tell (sell?) stories, might still ask questions about this. 

[payinkind]

Nico got booed pretty badly at Singapore. I would expect booing to continue, even in Japan.

[Gorma]

I'm hoping for Nico, but I think Lewis will win it. 

[Talisker]

Surely the only two honest answers are "Hamilton" or "It will be random based on reliability". Has anyone actually seen any evidence that Rosberg can consistently bear Hamilton in a straight fight?

[bourbon]

Thank you for taking the time to explain/answer point by point. I do appreciate. 

 

I do not see all that as pressure exerted by Lewis, but more by the consequences of his own actions. I don't think he has anyone to blame but himself for that pressure.  Instead of moving on from Hungary, Nico ruminated for weeks, kept the frustration inside, and tried to "prove a point" that he shouldn't have. It backfired eventually, but he was 100% responsible for all this, and for the crowd booing him. Lewis was never the one driver to have people on his side, and I don't think he himself expected most fans to support him over Nico, or to boo Nico.

 

Lewis let people know what happened out of frustration, that was his right, but I don't think it was in any way done in order to win a popularity contest in any kind.   It's the same kind of spontaneous reaction that he had after Monaco this year, or after Spa's qualy in 2012, the famous telemetry tweet.  He was quite criticized for both of these, but that's just the way he is: when he feels he was deprived of a fair shot at victory, he wants people to know and see things as they are, rather than, say, the team PR bullshit. 

 

One last question: how can you be so sure the booing is over? What if Nico gets booed at Suzuka?  Even journalists, stubborn as they are when they need to tell (sell?) stories, might still ask questions about this. 

 

Nobody gets booed in Suzuka. 

 

I get Lewis.  I just hope that the rest of the season is fought on track only is all. 

[ch103]

Lewis seals the title the race before AD.

[hollowstar]

Lewis seals the title the race before AD.

No way. If that ever happened, we would witness one last mid-season rule change: Abu Dhabi would be worth 3 times the usual points rather than only twice.

[7MGTEsup]

If there is any justice in the world Ricciardo will nick it as the two merc drivers fall over each other ala 1986.