So, we've recently had the Red Bull drivers and Horner talking about still having a "mathematical chance" of winning the WDC. So how does the mathematics currently work out? Who's still in the running, and what do they need to do to stay in the running as the final handful of races unfold?
So for starters, let's look at who is still in with a shout. There's 150 points available assuming a single driver can win all of the races left. With Hamilton on 241 and with 7 wins, the drivers must go into the final race with a maximum gap to the title leader of 49 points (unless you're Rosberg and win 4 of the remaining races (8 total) and Hamilton none, or Ricciardo and win all 5 (8 total)). That means anyone with at least 92 points is still in with a mathematical chance. Those drivers are:
Driver - Points (Gap)
Hamilton - 241 (0)
Rosberg - 238 (3)
Ricciardo - 181 (60)
Alonso - 133 (108)
Vettel - 124 (117)
Bottas - 122 (119)
For Japan, the key things to look out for (mathematically):
- Hamilton, Rosberg, and Ricciardo will all remain in contention regardless of the results in Japan.
- The other three could all fall out of contention under the following circumstances:
- Alonso - must not lose more than 16 points on the WDC leader (if Hamilton wins, must finish 5th or better) [if Rosberg wins, must finish 7th or better]
- Vettel - must not lose more than 7 points on the WDC leader (if Hamilton wins, must finish 2nd) [if Rosberg wins, must finish 3rd or better]
- Bottas - must not lose more than 5 points on the WDC leader (if Hamilton wins, is out) [if Rosberg wins, must finish 2nd]
Looking deeper into the season, the current crunch points are:
For Ricciardo:
He can continue losing points to the WDC leader right up until (and including) Austin, as long as he keeps those losses small enough. By the time the Brazil race finishes, however, he'll have need to have gained at least 11 points at an average of 3 per race.
Ricciardo can also go into the final race with a points gap small enough (13 or less, or 14 if he won the next 4 races) that winning would guarantee the title. To do that, he'd need to gain an average of 12 points per race over the next four races.
For Alonso:
Like Ricciardo, he can go into the final race with a mathematical chance to seal the WDC by winning the race. He needs to win the next 4 races, however, and also have both Hamilton and Rosberg fail to finish the next four.
Following the Russian race, he needs to have gained 9 points or he'll be out early. All up, he needs to gain an average of 15 points per race over the next four races to remain in the title fight.
For Vettel:
He can't go into the final race with a mathematical chance to win the race and therefore win the title. He will be out of the hunt after Russia unless he gains a minimum of 18 points before then, and needs to average a points gain of 17 per race over the next four to keep his hopes alive into the final race.
We also know now that Vettel is guaranteed to be taking at least one Power Unit grid penalty during the next few races, which will make his job that much harder.
For Bottas:
It's a similar story to Vettel. Out after Russia unless he gains 20 points quick smart, and needs to gain 18 per race over the next four.
For Hamilton and Rosberg:
It's all about reliability and finishing races. Hamilton can eliminate Bottas after Japan by winning the race, and if Rosberg makes it a 1-2 for Mercedes then Vettel will also be out.
Even if Rosberg won the next 3 races, with Hamilton DNFing them all, Hamilton would still have a (tiny) mathematical chance. If the reverse were to happen, Rosberg would be out (what a difference 3 points makes!), and Hamilton would be WDC with 2 races still to run.
I've got all this formulated up in an Excel sheet, so I can quickly update after each race as we move towards the end of the season. I'll drop in with updates as soon as I can after the points are paid for each race.