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WDC: Who has "a mathematical chance"?


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#1 GhostR

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Posted 23 September 2014 - 12:11

So, we've recently had the Red Bull drivers and Horner talking about still having a "mathematical chance" of winning the WDC. So how does the mathematics currently work out? Who's still in the running, and what do they need to do to stay in the running as the final handful of races unfold?

 

So for starters, let's look at who is still in with a shout. There's 150 points available assuming a single driver can win all of the races left. With Hamilton on 241 and with 7 wins, the drivers must go into the final race with a maximum gap to the title leader of 49 points (unless you're Rosberg and win 4 of the remaining races (8 total) and Hamilton none, or Ricciardo and win all 5 (8 total)). That means anyone with at least 92 points is still in with a mathematical chance. Those drivers are:

 

Driver - Points (Gap)

 

Hamilton - 241 (0)

Rosberg - 238 (3)

Ricciardo - 181 (60)

Alonso - 133 (108)

Vettel - 124 (117)

Bottas - 122 (119)

 

For Japan, the key things to look out for (mathematically):

  • Hamilton, Rosberg, and Ricciardo will all remain in contention regardless of the results in Japan.
  • The other three could all fall out of contention under the following circumstances:
    • Alonso - must not lose more than 16 points on the WDC leader (if Hamilton wins, must finish 5th or better) [if Rosberg wins, must finish 7th or better]
    • Vettel - must not lose more than 7 points on the WDC leader (if Hamilton wins, must finish 2nd) [if Rosberg wins, must finish 3rd or better]
    • Bottas - must not lose more than 5 points on the WDC leader (if Hamilton wins, is out) [if Rosberg wins, must finish 2nd]

Looking deeper into the season, the current crunch points are:

 

For Ricciardo:

He can continue losing points to the WDC leader right up until (and including) Austin, as long as he keeps those losses small enough. By the time the Brazil race finishes, however, he'll have need to have gained at least 11 points at an average of 3 per race.

 

Ricciardo can also go into the final race with a points gap small enough (13 or less, or 14 if he won the next 4 races) that winning would guarantee the title. To do that, he'd need to gain an average of 12 points per race over the next four races.

 

For Alonso:

Like Ricciardo, he can go into the final race with a mathematical chance to seal the WDC by winning the race. He needs to win the next 4 races, however, and also have both Hamilton and Rosberg fail to finish the next four.

 

Following the Russian race, he needs to have gained 9 points or he'll be out early. All up, he needs to gain an average of 15 points per race over the next four races to remain in the title fight.

 

For Vettel:

He can't go into the final race with a mathematical chance to win the race and therefore win the title. He will be out of the hunt after Russia unless he gains a minimum of 18 points before then, and needs to average a points gain of 17 per race over the next four to keep his hopes alive into the final race.

 

We also know now that Vettel is guaranteed to be taking at least one Power Unit grid penalty during the next few races, which will make his job that much harder.

 

For Bottas:

It's a similar story to Vettel. Out after Russia unless he gains 20 points quick smart, and needs to gain 18 per race over the next four.

 

For Hamilton and Rosberg:

It's all about reliability and finishing races. Hamilton can eliminate Bottas after Japan by winning the race, and if Rosberg makes it a 1-2 for Mercedes then Vettel will also be out.

 

Even if Rosberg won the next 3 races, with Hamilton DNFing them all, Hamilton would still have a (tiny) mathematical chance. If the reverse were to happen, Rosberg would be out (what a difference 3 points makes!), and Hamilton would be WDC with 2 races still to run.

 

 

 

I've got all this formulated up in an Excel sheet, so I can quickly update after each race as we move towards the end of the season. I'll drop in with updates as soon as I can after the points are paid for each race.



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#2 Ev0d3vil

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Posted 23 September 2014 - 12:20

How about drivers not in there? Out of the race? 25*6 (including Abu Double), so anyone who is out of the 150 point range of Lewis is out right I suppose !


Edited by Ev0d3vil, 23 September 2014 - 12:21.


#3 GhostR

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Posted 23 September 2014 - 12:24

How about drivers not in there? Out of the race? 25*6 (including Abu Double), so anyone who is out of the 150 point range of Lewis is out right I suppose !

 

Um, yes. Anyone I didn't mention is already out of the hunt. There's only 6 drivers left in with a chance.



#4 GhostR

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:12

Ran a few scenarios looking at the realities of whether Ricciardo can still in the title fight to the end or not in another thread. Here's what I came up with, assuming Ricciardo maximises his results and the Mercs have some more issues:

 

Playing with some hypothetical scenarios that look plausible based on how the season has progressed so far, let's assume that from the next four races each driver gets:

 

Scenario 1:

(IMO the most likely {well, complete Merc domination is most likely, but we already know how that ends up for Ricciardo}, however with a strong element of chance in that it assumes the Mercs both DNF the same race - Hamilton has won the most races, while Rosberg is slightly edging Ricciardo except when DNFs come into play)

 

Hamilton - 2x wins, 1x 2nd, 1x DNF - 68 points

Rosberg - 1x win, 2x 2nd, 1x DNF - 61 points

Ricciardo - 1x win (the race the Merc boys DNF), 3x 3rd - 70 points

 

This scenario leaves Ricciardo out of the hunt for the WDC but still in with a chance at beating Rosberg to 2nd. Vettel would have been long since out. The 3 points RBR decided not to give Ricciardo at Singapore are irrelevant.

 

Scenario 2: 

(Rosberg and Hamilton straight swap)

 

Hamilton - 1x wins, 1x 2nd, 1x DNF - 61 points

Rosberg - 2x win, 2x 2nd, 1x DNF - 68 points

Ricciardo - 1x win (the race the Merc boys DNF), 3x 3rd - 70 points

 

Again, this scenario means Ricciardo can't steal the WDC as he'd be too far behind. I haven't checked precisely (not got my spreadsheet with me as I'm at work), but again I think the Singapore 3 points are irrelevant.

 

Scenario 3:

(Hamilton same as scenario 1, but this time we've got an element of Rosberg folding under the title pressure and handing some points to Ricciardo)

 

Hamilton - 2x wins, 1x 2nd, 1x DNF - 68 points

Rosberg - 1x win, 1x 3rd, 2x DNF - 68 points

Ricciardo - 1x win (the race the Merc boys DNF), 3x 2nd - 79 points

 

This scenario means Ricciardo would be 49 points behind Hamilton going into the final race. Hamilton scores no points, and Rosberg has a bad day ... Ricciardo wins the race. The world implodes. And again, the Singapore 3 points are irrelevant.

 

What this all boils done to for me is that I very much doubt Red Bull will have any regrets over the 3 points Ricciardo could have had extra out of Singapore. What they are far more likely to regret is the points they could have had out of Australia. Let's for sake of being conservative assume that Red Bull's calculations that he would not have finished 3rd but rather been a bit deeper in the pack are true. For sake of simplicity, give him 10 points for Australia. That's huge, as it makes scenario 1 above a scenario in which Ricciardo goes into the last race still with a title shot (a slim one, but a shot nevertheless).



#5 sopa

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 11:53

Let's play the game as well then. :p

JPN: 1 Ham, 2 Ros, 3 Ric  [HAM 266, ROS 256, RIC 196] <- normal race

RUS: 1 Ric, 7 Ros, DNF Ham[HAM 266, ROS 262, RIC 221] <- a wet weather chaos, Mercedes fails

USA: 1 Ham, 3 Ric, DNF Ros [HAM 291, ROS 262, RIC 236] <- a DNF for Merc, Bottas beats Ric for P2.

BRA: 1 Ros, 2 Ric, DNF Ham [HAM 291, ROS 287, RIC 254] <- a DNF for Merc.

 

Ricciardo 37 pts behind before Abu Dhabi...

 

Well, if you think about it, it may not be toooo unlikely to happen if Mercedes continues to stumble here and there and for example make a complete balls-up of a random messy race, which can always happen even to a dominant team. Still it needs Ricciardo to almost have a perfect performance and never DNF. In my scheme he gets beaten by a fourth player in USA though even if Ricciardo doesn't win the wet messy race and finishes, say, 3rd, behind Vettel and Alonso, he would still be 47 points behind before Abu Dhabi. :p

 

E: But I think it seems clear that for Ricciardo to be within 50 pts before Abu Dhabi he needs at least one race out of the 4, where both Mercedes fail... and obviously to win the title he needs both Merc to fail in Abu Dhabi too. Even more so that I don't think it is likely at least one MB retires from each of the 4 races. They are bound to get at least one 1-2 finish, and likely more.


Edited by sopa, 25 September 2014 - 11:58.


#6 Ev0d3vil

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 01:26

Vettel is out of the title race, finally. End of an era.



#7 garagetinkerer

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 03:39

Vettel is out of the title race, finally. End of an era.

I thought it was obvious during winter testing, and a couple of races in, it was confirmed with Mercedes stomping their supremacy.



#8 Ev0d3vil

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 03:52

I thought it was obvious during winter testing, and a couple of races in, it was confirmed with Mercedes stomping their supremacy.

 

Well, as of Suzuka, he is out mathematically.



#9 Kalmake

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 05:33

RBR are either unable to team order Vettel, or dumb. Ricciardo's chances were so much better that they should have started maximizing his points few races ago. 1/100 shot is not great, but it's not something to ignore either.



#10 topical

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 06:27

Some people have too much time on their hands....it's a Merc WDC, all that matters now is which one. All other permutations are irrelevant.



#11 apoka

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 07:57

RBR are either unable to team order Vettel, or dumb. Ricciardo's chances were so much better that they should have started maximizing his points few races ago. 1/100 shot is not great, but it's not something to ignore either.

 

When it comes to Vettel/RB, there are suddenly quite a number of posters demanding team orders even for minor points. Interesting. 



#12 GhostR

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 08:44

So, doesn't feel quite right after what happened on the weekend with Bianchi, but here's a quick update on the mathematical chances:

 

Vettel, Alonso, and Bottas are all now out of the title fight.

 

Ricciardo remains in with a chance, but the maths have changed significantly. Having maintained the "points gain required per race" at 3 for several races, it has now jumped out to 8. If Mercedes is reliable, that means he needs to do the impossible: win the next 3 races by dominating the car that dominates. If Mercedes were to drop the ball completely, he still has a mathematical chance to go into the final race in a situation where a race win wins the title ... but he needs to gain a whopping 20 points per race over the next 3 races.

 

Regardless of the result in Russia, Ricciardo will still be in the hunt. If Hamilton wins Russia, and Ricciardo doesn't score, he'll be right on the cusp of being out though - just 1 more point lost from Austin and he's out.

 

Realistically, the door was still ajar prior to Japan. But it's on the latch now. Not locked, but as good as closed barring Mercedes losing the plot completely.

 

(Edit: I'm going to keep this sheet for next season - think it'll be very interesting to track the ups and downs of the drivers' chances throughout the season).


Edited by GhostR, 07 October 2014 - 08:45.


#13 sv401

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 11:11

Ricciardo cannot be WDC this year if any of the following (among many other possible scenarios) happens:

- a Mercedes driver (it does not matter, which one) wins in Abu Dhabi

- Rosberg wins any two of the non-Abu Dhabi races

- Hamilton outscores Ricciardo by 2 points, either in Abu Dhabi alone, or over a combination of any two of the other races

His best bet for actually becoming WDC is winning in Abu Dhabi with a Mercedes double DNF (however unlikely that particular result is), and then he still needs to overhaul both Rosberg's and Hamilton's 13 and 23 points lead, respectively, before the last race to remain in contention. Overall, it is a very low chance now, especially because of having to massively outscore both Mercedes drivers, and Hamilton scoring 2 points more over any two of the remaining races is likely to happen, possibly already in Russia and USA without major Mercedes problems or mistakes. Obviously, Ricciardo cannot afford more reliability issues himself now.



#14 PlatenGlass

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Posted 07 October 2014 - 22:33

Realistically, the door was still ajar prior to Japan. But it's on the latch now. Not locked, but as good as closed barring Mercedes losing the plot completely.

For some reason, I found this really funny.

#15 fisssssi

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Posted 08 October 2014 - 05:03

I thought it was obvious during winter testing, and a couple of races in, it was confirmed with Mercedes stomping their supremacy.

Mathematically is the key word here. See the thread title.



#16 Kac

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Posted 08 October 2014 - 05:57

For some reason, I found this really funny.

It actually reminds me of the a "Potentially Vs. Realistically" joke but that's off topic.

 

Currently there's just too many permutation to consider..

 

But most realistic expection is that Mercedes will clinch their WCC in RUS and that by end of USA, the only ones in Mathematical contention for the title will be the Merc drivers.