113 replies to this topic

[emmanuelrubi]

I was wondering, since the beginning of the F1 as we know it, Ferrari has won something in every decade, either the driver championship, the constructor championship or both, but in this decade (2010-2019) Ferrari hasn't won anything and we are about to enter the second half of this decade with no significant improvement for the team, could this decade be the first in Ferrari history that they end up empty handed ?

[garoidb]

I was wondering, since the beginning of the F1 as we know it, Ferrari has won something in every decade, either the driver championship, the constructor championship or both, but in this decade (2010-2019) Ferrari hasn't won anything and we are about to enter the second half of this decade with no significant improvement for the team, could this decade be the first in Ferrari history that they end up empty handed ?

 

Yes.

[MotorsportFerrari]

It is too early to say something like that. If that goes through your mine, it shows you aren't experienced enough in F1.

Formula 1 is a world which changes all the time. YOu can be absolutely a zero after being hero.  We could creat a long list of examples. McLaren 2012 ---- 2013 (no real tech change).

 

BTW I am sure Ferrari will come back in 2-3 years' time.

[Lights]

"Entering the second half of this decade with no significant improvement for the team" means nothing. There could easily be another major change in regulations in let's say, 2018, with Ferrari absolutely nailing those and having a dominant year.

[xmoonrakerx]

this is first season without win since 92...so yeah, its possible

[george1981]

"Entering the second half of this decade with no significant improvement for the team" means nothing. There could easily be another major change in regulations in let's say, 2018, with Ferrari absolutely nailing those and having a dominant year.

Ferrari don't seem to do well with regulation changes. They seem to lose out to smaller more innovative teams, or Adrian Newey.

[garoidb]

this is first season without win since 92...so yeah, its possible

 

I don't think they won in 93 either. 

[DarthWillie]

Thread 5 years early?

[xmoonrakerx]

I don't think they won in 93 either. 

 

yeah 93, i always mix the years

[xmoonrakerx]

Thread 5 years early?

 

since bookmarks are kept in the cloud now...ill save this one just in case

Edited by xmoonrakerx, 18 October 2014 - 08:28.

[Jackmancer]

For all we know, Mercedes, Honda and Renault could be out of the sport by 2019. One bad financial year + bad results in the sport and they can pull the plug. 

We've little clue about five years from now.

[Balnazzard]

Anything could happen in 5 years....and saying that "with no significant improvement for the team" is also bit foolish to say....I think Ferrari is going to improve during 2015 and beyond now that James Allison and some other new people have moved in, but how significantly is another question that only time will tell. I and propably everone else very much doubt that they are going to be able to challenge for championship in 2015, but they have set their target to be on top in 2016 and I dont think that would be impossible task, but it requires ofcourse that they make great steps forward in 2015.

[F1matt]

In 2004 Ferrari utterly dominated the season with possibly the best F1 car we have ever seen, so good it still holds lots of lap records. By the end of the decade they were in the wilderness. Nobody can see far enough into the future to right them off just yet.

[SCUDmissile]

yes it could happen. but a lot could change

[RosannaG]

I was wondering, since the beginning of the F1 as we know it, Ferrari has won something in every decade, either the driver championship, the constructor championship or both, but in this decade (2010-2019) Ferrari hasn't won anything and we are about to enter the second half of this decade with no significant improvement for the team, could this decade be the first in Ferrari history that they end up empty handed ?

 

5 seasons to go... That's a long time, many things can happen so I would say no...

[EthanM]

exaggerate much? We 're barely halfway into the decade. Did you make a will RB dominate everything thread in 2005 and a yeah Brawn won this year, they will suck for 5 years then dominate again thread in 2009?

[Fatgadget]

5 seasons to go... That's a long time, many things can happen so I would say no...

Abso-firkin-lutely! Who prior 2009 would have thought a 'drinks company' would re-write the F1 history books?

[RosannaG]

Abso-firkin-lutely! Who prior 2009 would have thought a 'drinks company' would re-write the F1 history books?

 

Not many people, really... 

[P123]

Bernie's favourite driver in Bernie's favourite team.....

[Fatgadget]

Bernie's favourite driver in Bernie's favourite team.....

And you know that how exactly Podium 123?..Or are you just perpetuating a modern day urban legend??....

[KavB]

McLaren were pretty close to winning nothing last decade so it is not out of the question. 

 

I think Ferrari will mount a good challenge within a few years though. These dry spells usually do not last more than a few years. They may not win a title but they will produce a car capable of fighting for the title on pace.

[pdac]

Anything could happen in 5 years....and saying that "with no significant improvement for the team" is also bit foolish to say....I think Ferrari is going to improve during 2015 and beyond now that James Allison and some other new people have moved in, but how significantly is another question that only time will tell. I and propably everone else very much doubt that they are going to be able to challenge for championship in 2015, but they have set their target to be on top in 2016 and I dont think that would be impossible task, but it requires ofcourse that they make great steps forward in 2015.

 

Or, Ferrari could fail to improve and just give up and leave F1. As you say, anything could happen.

[Szoelloe]

no, it is not the first decade. The pre-MS era after Niki was two?

[Fatgadget]

McLaren were pretty close to winning nothing last decade so it is not out of the question.

I think Ferrari will mount a good challenge within a few years though. These dry spells usually do not last more than a few years. They may not win a title but they will produce a car capable of fighting for the title on pace.

Ehh..That is not what they (Ferrari) want though is it?...They want to win titles just NOW like every other top 5 team on the grid. Gone are the days..... Just because your name is
Ferrari,McLaren,Williams,Lotus,Renault etc..Therefore you had the devine rights to bagging WDCs...Brawn debunked that one.And RedBull refined it in 2009.And who is it today saying Mercedes are not going to lock out this one for the next decade or so?...Pretty much the same way Lotus did during the 70s and McLaren and Williams during the 80s and 90s? Ferrari had theirs during the Schumacher years....Now they are in the doldrums.Thats how the F1 cookie crumbles. Simples!
As for those deluded folks whinging and whining and predicting doom disaster vis the future of F1.....

Edited by Fatgadget, 18 October 2014 - 15:46.

[sopa]

Considering once upon a time Ferrari went 21 years without a Drivers Championship, and McLaren is still going without Constructors Title ever since 1998, it has to be said no-one is safe. Even the most legendary teams in the sport can just remain in agony for years and years and after that further more years, while looking at other teams winning the titles.

 

Will it happen this time though? This is the tough question. While we may project that the next couple of years should look good for Mercedes, it is very hard to project anything beyond that based on current knowledge. And when we get the next major regulations overhaul (will it happen before 2020?), we are likely to get yet another major pecking order overhaul.

 

As someone said, nobody knows, for how long will Mercedes, Renault or Honda remain committed to the sport. Though Mercedes has consistently been in it ever since 1993 (starting out as Ilmor), and Renault has been in it ever since 1977 with the exception of two short(ish) hiatuses (1987-88; 1998-00). So based on that evidence they are pretty likely to remain relatively committed, but the question may be the amount of commitment and also technical level. For example currently Mercedes has by far the best engine, but a decade ago (exactly 2004) they had the worst engines, which were blowing up all the time. Over time not only regulations change, but also the level of the technical team.

 

All you can say, if from now onwards Ferrari can make aggressive and smart decisions, and most importantly manages to capitalize on any hesitations or setbacks of rivals, they may rise above others before 2020. But I believe it is very important for Ferrari to be properly strong in something, so that they can use it in their favour. Like Red Bull in aerodynamics (hence won 2010-13) and Mercedes in engines (now winning). Ferrari's strength used to be for example personal test track, which gave them a relative advantage over rivals, but now it is banned. So Ferrari has to find something in which they have a relative advantage over the field, preferrably it should be about technical expertise. At the moment I don't see any particular strength in this team that others should envy (except the 100M $ payment from Bernie) , and this is a concern.

 

If you have a proper strength, you can also use it politically to try to bend the rules in your favour. For example I believe Mercedes was very interested in V6T power units.

[HoldenRT]

In 2004 Ferrari utterly dominated the season with possibly the best F1 car we have ever seen, so good it still holds lots of lap records. By the end of the decade they were in the wilderness. Nobody can see far enough into the future to right them off just yet.

 

That was more a circumstance of the regulations at the time.

[BullHead]

Things aren't good, but they're not that bad - I see them at the front within the next five years.

[Fatgadget]

That was more a circumstance of the regulations at the time.

Same difference now No?

[FullThrottleF1]

Lets remember they almost won in 2012 with the 3rd best car.

[sopa]

Lets remember they almost won in 2012 with the 3rd best car.

 

An argument is being made that with Vettel on board third best car is not sufficient any more, only the best car qualifies.  Especially as it seems like Vettel will be a major part of Ferrari for the second half of the decade with a 3+2 contract, covering years of 2015-2019. Though who knows, maybe in later years someone else would be hired alongside Vettel, who proceeds to beat Vettel then.

[prostspeed]

Underestimate Allison, one must not. 

[garoidb]

Bernie's favourite driver in Bernie's favourite team.....

 

There is no doubt that Bernie would like to recreate the German interest in F1 seen during the Schumacher era. The thing is, if that hasn't happened for Vettel already then will going to Ferrari change anything? He may not win much for some time to come, and that won't help either.

[FullThrottleF1]

I think we found Yoda's autosport acount

[PlatenGlass]

Lets remember they almost won in 2012 with the 3rd best car.

Not when you consider reliability.

[PlatenGlass]

It's a pretty arbitrary time-frame though. Even if it ends up being the first set decade where they don't win anything, it won't (yet) be the longest period they've gone without winning.

[RosannaG]

no, it is not the first decade. The pre-MS era after Niki was two?

 

Yes, it would be the first decade...

 

15 World Drivers Championship titles (1952, 1953, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1964, 1975, 1977, 1979, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007)

16 World Constructors Championship titles (1961, 1964, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2008)

[Maaarsh]

Yes, it would be the first decade...

 

15 World Drivers Championship titles (1952, 1953, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1964, 1975, 1977, 1979, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007)

16 World Constructors Championship titles (1961, 1964, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2008)

 

Looks like they're tracking down their 3rd fruitless decade to me.

[RosannaG]

Looks like they're tracking down their 3rd fruitless decade to me.

 

Which were the first and second ones? 

[Afterburner]

Bernie's favourite driver in Bernie's favourite team.....

SV can't catch a break around here, can he.

[Fatgadget]

Lets remember they almost won in 2012 with the 3rd best car.

Says who?...If it was the third best car then it would have come up third! Same this year..best car has won the WDC etc etc..

[garoidb]

Says who?...If it was the third best car then it would have come up third! Same this year..best car has won the WDC etc etc..

 

Yeah. It was the 4th best.

[krod]

Come back in 2018 - let's see how it's going then...

 

You're counting eggs - let's wait for some chickens...

[bourbon]

An argument is being made that with Vettel on board third best car is not sufficient any more, only the best car qualifies.     Especially as it seems like Vettel will be a major part of Ferrari for the second half of the decade with a 3+2 contract, covering years of 2015-2019.

 

Null argument as 3rd best wasn't sufficient when Alonso on board either; Ferrari hasn't won anything these past 5 years.  As Mario Andretti says, "He [Vettel] cannot do any worse than what Fernando has been doing so far.  Given a competitive car he can bring the Prancing Horse to the top again and that would be huge. You know how important that is for Formula 1."

Edited by bourbon, 18 October 2014 - 18:19.

[pdac]

Null argument as 3rd best wasn't sufficient when Alonso on board either; Ferrari hasn't won anything these past 5 years.  As Mario Andretti says, "He [Vettel] cannot do any worse than what Fernando has been doing so far.  Given a competitive car he can bring the Prancing Horse to the top again and that would be huge. You know how important that is for Formula 1."

 

Strange ... I would say that it's pretty obvious that anyone could to worse than Alonso. I'm sure I would.

[sennafan24]

Underestimate Allison, one must not. 

This

 

Alison could be the key figure that decides the OP's question. A driver is only a Champion if he is given the proper machinery.

 

 

 "He [Vettel] cannot do any worse than what Fernando has been doing so far"

I think he means winning WDC's whilst at Ferrari, not actual driver performance.

 

If the Ferrari drivers are fed the same level of machinery that Alonso has the past few years, I think their drought will continue. They will have some decent seasons in the constructors standings, but nothing more.

Edited by sennafan24, 18 October 2014 - 18:43.

[xmoonrakerx]

Kimi will win it next year

[garoidb]

Null argument as 3rd best wasn't sufficient when Alonso on board either; Ferrari hasn't won anything these past 5 years.  As Mario Andretti says, "He [Vettel] cannot do any worse than what Fernando has been doing so far.  Given a competitive car he can bring the Prancing Horse to the top again and that would be huge. You know how important that is for Formula 1."

 

I'd love to hear him expand on what that means exactly. Anyway, Kimi has demonstrated that it is possible for a WDC to do worse than Fernando. Vettel's main advantage is that he can wait long enough for Ferrari to haul themselves back to the front. It probably will happen eventually. 

[noikeee]

I'd expect Mercedes to wipe out the next 2 or 3 years with the sort of advantage they retain at the moment, which won't fizzle out that soon unless they really mess up a car's design. After that, it's anyone's guess. Ferrari are not as wealthy as Mercedes but can probably match Red Bull and McLaren/Honda, and certainly easily outspend anyone else, so probably are in a good position to benefit from whenever Mercedes mess up, just not in the immediate short term. It's just hard to say if their window of opportunity is going to open up in 2017 or 2018 or 2019 or... Anyone knows whether there's any new big changes in the regulations planned for a specific year?

 

It's difficult futurology, but I'd say there is a very real danger they could end this decade with no titles yes.

[D28]

Which were the first and second ones? 

Yes Maaarsh, could you elaborate on your math please.

 

Using an admitted arbitrary selection of decades by years starting with 0, Ferrari has won 1 of the available World Titles in each decade (see the correct table by RosannaG). This stratification of time is common for many social observations.

 

The longest dry stretch I see is between WC titles of 1983 and 99, 16 years perhaps a decade and 1/2?

 

The table itself is sobering; think of any other F1 manufacturer studying those numbers and discussing a "problem"

And the table doesn't even cover sports car racing.

[WalterTrout]

Ferrari will be worse without Alonso. If their driver lineup is Vettel and Raikkkonen then they have very little chance of improving in my opinion. Vettel without Newey will suffer and Raikkkonen is past it, I can't believe Ferrari would want to pay him a dime after this season.