2014 final standings after Abu Dhabi:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) noikeee 1602 35 2) Makarias 1592 49 3) kismet 1561 41 4) fisichella_2001 1542 30 5) AcuraF1 1526 25 6) mark f1 1523 41 7) skylark68 1519 35 8) LB 1518 35 9) Brawn BGP 001 1515 29 10) scheivlak 1510 46 11) Anderis 1509 41 12) DutchQuicksilver 1498 41 13) Bleu 1490 16 14) d_view7 1487 22 15) Iranie 1486 37 16) aray 1485 43 17) Estwald 1484 45 18) Wlleiotl 1483 51 19) Kingshark 1482 27 = wattoroos 1482 37 21) Grayson 1465 34 22) M2000-5 1459 56 23) Wander 1455 21 24) HeidfeldsBeard 1453 28 25) Apex 1450 13 26) Barty 1449 13 27) KWSN-DSM 1432 57 28) Fastcake 1421 34 29) Costaz 1379 45 30) an1res 1352 35
Congratulations to noikeee 
who STEALS the 2014 PTPC championship from
the just slightly devastated runner-up Makarias
with third place finisher kismet further behind.
The entries
PTPC Hall of Fame
Year WDC Game Pl Winner AD Points Win % # 2000 442 365 82.58 14 jack and gilles 2001 442 364 82.35 69 MrT, tacololo 2002 442 376 85.07 46 smarty 2003 624 537 86.06 41 arcsine 2004 702 554 78.98 48 Pioneer 2005 741 595 80.30 49 KWSN-DSM 2006 702 592 84.33 47 an1res 2007 663 563 84.92 40 turin 2008 702 597 85.04 39 AcuraF1 2009 731 518 70.86 29 D82 2010 1919 1674 87.23 34 Costaz 2011 1919 1664 86.71 25 Crazy Canuck 2012 2020 1706 84.46 28 Costaz 2013 1919 1656 86.29 27 scheivlak 2014 1919 1602 83.48 30 noikeee
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 271,4 166,2 30 Verg 153,1 53,7 24 Bott 149,1 100,0 30 Hami 139,2 99,4 29 Rosb 128,5 106,7 30 Vett 110,0 79,5 18 Hülk 104,5 71,5 16 Mass 93,7 56,9 13 Pere 86,5 52,5 10 Alon 78,5 57,0 0 Butt 75,7 48,5 7 Kvya 71,6 22,2 13 Magn 46,3 31,6 0 Bian 45,1 7,7 11 Räik 31,4 20,1 0 Gros 17,6 8,8 1 Mald 6,8 2,7 2
Nico Hülkenberg is the seventh driver to beat his expectation mark and with the slightest of margins Valtteri Bottas becomes the third 100% surprise of 2014!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Massa Bottas Ricciardo Button M2000-5 360 M2000-5 203 * Potential 171 * Potential 226 Costaz 238 * Potential 359 Wlleiotl 200 * Forecast 171 * Forecast 226 Barty 237 * Forecast 359 Estwald 180 * Current 171 * Current 226 Apex 230 * Current 359 KWSN-DSM 169 Wlleiotl 170 kismet 135 Brawn BGP 001 224 Apex 324 noikeee 169 KWSN-DSM 168 aray 132 Fastcake 221 LB 320 wattoroos 153 noikeee 160 Makarias 131 LB 200 noikeee 298 DutchQuicksilver142 Barty 145 mark f1 125 Estwald 177 Brawn BGP 001 284 Iranie 140 AcuraF1 144 d_view7 124 Wander 171 Bleu 280 kismet 140 Iranie 140 AcuraF1 111 scheivlak 162 AcuraF1 275 LB 140 Anderis 137 DutchQuicksilver102 KWSN-DSM 160 fisichella_2001 275 AcuraF1 133 Makarias 132 HeidfeldsBeard 102 noikeee 155 kismet 270 aray 130 d_view7 130 Barty 92 Kingshark 151 Anderis 268 Makarias 126 wattoroos 130 skylark68 89 Wlleiotl 150 skylark68 268 Fastcake 121 Estwald 121 Brawn BGP 001 88 skylark68 149 Wander 265 an1res 120 fisichella_2001 121 Bleu 87 DutchQuicksilver146 scheivlak 258 Anderis 119 an1res 120 noikeee 87 Makarias 146 wattoroos 255 Costaz 119 LB 120 Estwald 84 HeidfeldsBeard 145 Fastcake 252 * Potential 116 Brawn BGP 001 118 fisichella_2001 83 kismet 145 Wlleiotl 250 * Forecast 116 scheivlak 116 wattoroos 82 aray 140 DutchQuicksilver248 * Current 116 Grayson 110 Kingshark 81 M2000-5 140 Makarias 248 mark f1 115 Wander 107 Grayson 80 Grayson 125 Kingshark 247 scheivlak 113 M2000-5 106 Iranie 80 Iranie 125 Grayson 245 Grayson 105 Fastcake 101 Wander 78 wattoroos 119 Estwald 242 skylark68 102 Bleu 100 an1res 75 * Potential 116 HeidfeldsBeard 240 Brawn BGP 001 100 kismet 100 Anderis 67 * Forecast 116 Barty 239 fisichella_2001 100 DutchQuicksilver 96 Fastcake 66 * Current 116 aray 238 Kingshark 94 Kingshark 96 Apex 60 mark f1 115 KWSN-DSM 238 Apex 90 aray 95 Costaz 57 fisichella_2001 113 Costaz 237 d_view7 85 mark f1 90 LB 55 Anderis 112 Iranie 227 Wander 82 skylark68 89 Wlleiotl 50 Bleu 110 mark f1 225 Bleu 80 Apex 70 scheivlak 49 d_view7 110 d_view7 203 HeidfeldsBeard 76 HeidfeldsBeard 62 KWSN-DSM 40 an1res 100 an1res 160 Barty 70 Costaz 46 M2000-5 6 AcuraF1 79
Bottas did exactly what was needed to get to the 100% surprise, which Hamilton didn't quite manage to do. Massa showed good form late in the season after plenty of troubles earlier. If this turns out to have Button's last season in F1 he can still be proud of it; that car was a disappointment.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Hülkenberg Perez Vettel Alonso Räikkönen skylark68 122 an1res 100 fisichella_2001 204 M2000-5 278 M2000-5 267 KWSN-DSM 110 skylark68 91 kismet 200 HeidfeldsBeard 256 d_view7 258 Makarias 110 KWSN-DSM 90 aray 194 aray 252 AcuraF1 215 Costaz 109 Costaz 87 skylark68 189 AcuraF1 235 Barty 204 Kingshark 102 Wlleiotl 80 AcuraF1 188 an1res 225 Costaz 203 an1res 100 Makarias 77 scheivlak 186 d_view7 222 Iranie 200 Estwald 98 Iranie 75 Makarias 184 fisichella_2001 217 Wander 192 scheivlak 96 Grayson 70 DutchQuicksilver181 LB 215 Fastcake 188 Anderis 94 Kingshark 70 Bleu 180 Costaz 210 DutchQuicksilver179 Brawn BGP 001 92 mark f1 70 HeidfeldsBeard 172 Fastcake 209 HeidfeldsBeard 178 fisichella_2001 92 Anderis 68 LB 170 Barty 204 Kingshark 177 Grayson 92 Brawn BGP 001 66 d_view7 168 Anderis 201 wattoroos 177 aray 90 DutchQuicksilver 66 * Potential 163 DutchQuicksilver201 an1res 175 * Potential 88 fisichella_2001 66 * Forecast 163 Iranie 200 Bleu 171 HeidfeldsBeard 88 scheivlak 64 * Current 163 kismet 200 LB 165 * Forecast 88 d_view7 63 mark f1 160 wattoroos 196 Anderis 164 * Current 88 Estwald 61 Kingshark 159 Wander 195 KWSN-DSM 163 d_view7 85 kismet 60 Wander 150 Bleu 194 Apex 160 mark f1 85 Wander 58 Costaz 148 Brawn BGP 001 194 aray 160 Fastcake 83 wattoroos 56 Grayson 145 skylark68 192 Grayson 155 Wander 82 * Potential 53 Iranie 145 Apex 190 Makarias 153 Wlleiotl 80 * Forecast 53 Barty 138 KWSN-DSM 190 scheivlak 152 Iranie 75 * Current 53 noikeee 136 Grayson 184 mark f1 150 kismet 75 Bleu 52 wattoroos 133 scheivlak 184 Wlleiotl 150 DutchQuicksilver 71 HeidfeldsBeard 50 Brawn BGP 001 131 Makarias 183 fisichella_2001 148 Apex 70 Apex 45 an1res 130 Kingshark 178 skylark68 148 wattoroos 68 AcuraF1 44 Apex 110 mark f1 175 kismet 145 M2000-5 67 Fastcake 44 Estwald 106 Wlleiotl 170 Estwald 135 noikeee 65 M2000-5 43 Anderis 104 Estwald 162 noikeee 121 Bleu 63 noikeee 43 Fastcake 98 noikeee 162 Brawn BGP 001 111 AcuraF1 61 aray 30 KWSN-DSM 80 * Potential 159 * Potential 54 LB 60 LB 25 Wlleiotl 80 * Forecast 159 * Forecast 54 Barty 42 Barty 24 M2000-5 76 * Current 159 * Current 54
Hülkenberg had 100% surprise pace in the first half of the season, but he dropped off quite a bit later on. Decent finale at least! Ferrari will want to forget about this season asap...
The PTPC forecast after Brazil
Name Forecast +/- noikeee 1595,6 17,3 Makarias 1585,5 16,2 kismet 1558,5 16,2 fisichella_2001 1551,6 12,1 AcuraF1 1530,6 12,8 skylark68 1525,1 14,8 LB 1518,4 19,6 mark f1 1518,4 12,9 Brawn BGP 001 1516,7 11,0 scheivlak 1507,1 15,6 Bleu 1505,3 4,0 Anderis 1503,4 12,9 d_view7 1500,2 3,6 DutchQuicksilver 1495,2 16,6 Kingshark 1483,8 4,8 aray 1482,3 18,6 Iranie 1478,8 14,8 wattoroos 1476,0 13,4 Wlleiotl 1470,4 9,4 Estwald 1468,9 15,7 Grayson 1465,2 14,3 HeidfeldsBeard 1462,1 8,1 Wander 1459,8 4,7 Apex 1458,3 7,5 Barty 1457,1 7,8 M2000-5 1444,6 19,5 KWSN-DSM 1417,9 10,9 Fastcake 1417,1 17,8 Costaz 1367,7 14,9 an1res 1346,6 6,1
On average the final scores ended up a bit higher than the forecasts due to Rosberg's no-scorer...
The best guesses on each driver
X # ! Y Hami 359 360 M2000-5 Rosb 317 296 M2000-5 Ricc 226 135 kismet Bott 171 170 Wlleiotl Vett 163 160 mark f1 Alon 159 162 noikeee Mass 116 115 mark f1 Butt 116 115 mark f1 Hülk 88 88 HeidfeldsBeard Magn 55 62 AcuraF1 Räik 54 111 Brawn BGP 001 Pere 53 52 Bleu Verg 22 22 Iranie Gros 8 10 KWSN-DSM, LB Kvya 8 9 Kingshark, kismet Mald 2 0 Barty, M2000-5 Bian 2 2 5 players Suti 0 8 noikeee Eric 0 0 19 players Guti 0 2 M2000-5 Chil 0 0 15 players Koba 0 0 14 players Stev 0 0 All 30 players Lott 0 0 All 30 players
Gotta be impressed with how mark f1 nailed a Massa-Button draw that well!
Reality check on some of our predictions
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pred Off Merc 505 +171 Ferr 375 -162 McLa 272 -101 Will 239 + 48 RBR 231 +158 FoIn 145 - 4 Lotu 75 - 65 Saub 42 - 42 STR 25 + 5 Maru 7 - 5 Cate 3 - 3
Some guesses were way off here, but we also predicted Williams' rise pretty well and the Force India rating was almost spot on.
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned Comment <- = -> Vett 30 0 0 Ricc Utter bollocks Gros 27 3 0 Mald Correct Hülk 27 3 0 Pere Correct Alon 27 2 1 Räik Correct Suti 27 2 1 Guti Draw Butt 26 3 1 Magn Correct Bian 21 8 1 Chil Correct Hami 20 1 9 Rosb Correct Verg 18 5 7 Kvya Correct Mass 16 2 12 Bott Wrong Koba 12 16 2 Eric Correct (draw)
Not too bad guesses, with one glaring exception.
2014 is over although formally we'll have to suffer through December as well. Keep an eye out for this game to return on the radar a few weeks before the 2015 season opener. Happy new year! 
to Makarias for running the game. 
