69 replies to this topic

[pacificquay]

Magnussen

[RedRabbit]

Only drivers who look likely to win a race in the near future are Bottas, Perez or Grosjean. I rate Hulkenburg higher than Perez, but Perez just seems to pull those big results out the bag when you least expect it. If Williams can maintain their form, the driver most likely to win is Bottas.

[nosecone]

Grosjean, Bottas, Kvyat

[pusko]

Max Verstapen

[balage06]

Kvyat or Grosjean

[Baddoer]

Ericsson

[FerrariV12]

Grosjean? The guy who lost to Kimi over two years before Kimi was trounced by Alonso?

I rate him Perez level. Maybe a fluke win one day but surely Bottas and Hulkenberg are way ahead.

 

I think it's more the prospect (obviously far from a given, but not completely improbable either) of Lotus "doing a Williams" - i.e. coming off the back of a crap season, but switch to Merc power and a solid track record of producing competitive cars in other years. And The Reverend already has a win to his name, so yeah.

 

Admittedly Lotus have lost Allison while Williams gained Symonds and Smedley, so might be tougher for them.

Edited by FerrariV12, 27 November 2014 - 16:31.

[redreni]

I'm guessing Bottas (but I'd like another guess if it turns out we're having third cars).

[MP422]

Pastor Maldonado 

[emmanuelrubi]

Pastor Maldonado 

 

He has already won (2012)

[lustigson]

I also think the excessive reliability of modern cars plays a part.

In the olden days there would usually be a couple of newbie winners each season.
 

 

Let's look at some data if this is indeed true. A sample of seasons:

 

1954: 0

1964: 1 (Lorenzo Bandini, who had already won non-championship races)

1974: 3 (Reutemann, who had already won a non-championship race; Lauda; Scheckter)

1984: 0

1994: 0

2004: 1 (Trulli)

 

Perhaps the number of new winners per season isn't as high in past seasons as one would think. 

[Kristian]

Let's look at some data if this is indeed true. A sample of seasons:

 

1954: 0

1964: 1 (Lorenzo Bandini, who had already won non-championship races)

1974: 3 (Reutemann, who had already won a non-championship race; Lauda; Scheckter)

1984: 0

1994: 0

2004: 1 (Trulli)

 

Perhaps the number of new winners per season isn't as high in past seasons as one would think. 

 

Well as I posted the original data, I thought I'd look at it in full and here are the results of 5 year increments.

 

It seems between the 70s and early 90s there was a downward trend in new winners, which then went back up to a consistent level from the mid-90s to 2010. Then it dropped massively again. 

 

It will be interesting to see the correlation against different winners in that period, which I might do tonight when I'm not in work (that will take a bit longer to gather data!). 

 

[ANF]

Number of first victories per season:

        0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9

195x    2  3  1  1  0  2  2  1  0  3
196x    1  3  3  1  1  2  1  2  2  1
197x    2  3  1  2  3  4  1  3  2  1
198x    3  1  5  0  0  2  1  0  0  2
199x    0  0  1  1  0  3  2  2  0  1
200x    1  2  0  3  1  0  2  1  3  1
201x    0  0  2  0  1

Source: http://en.wikipedia....nners#By_driver
Indy 500 winners excluded.

[Kristian]

Number of first victories per season:

        0  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9

195x    2  3  1  1  0  2  2  1  0  3
196x    1  3  3  1  1  2  1  2  2  1
197x    2  3  1  2  3  4  1  3  2  1
198x    3  1  5  0  0  2  1  0  0  2
199x    0  0  1  1  0  3  2  2  0  1
200x    1  2  0  3  1  0  2  1  3  1
201x    0  0  2  0  1

Source: http://en.wikipedia....nners#By_driver
Indy 500 winners excluded.

 

Ah OK so there's only 95 there, but no Indy 500 guys... I might re-adjust the chart as that does skew figures somewhat I agree. 

[sopa]

Its interesting actually how few new winners we get these days....

 

2000 - 1

2001 - 2

2002 - 0

2003 - 3

2004 - 1

 

2005 - 0

2006 - 2

2007 - 1

2008 - 3

2009 - 1

 

2010 - 0

2011 - 0

2012 - 2

2013 - 0

2014 - 1

 

Basically, in the last 5 years we have had 3 new winners. In the 5 years before that it was 7, and in the 5 years before that it was also 7 (which is impressive considering much of that sample was the Ferrari domination years!). 

 

I'm guessing the lack of in-season testing since 2009 is the big factor in this. 

 

Interesting. I gather that in truly eventful years (2003, 2008, 2012) we have a greater chance of getting new race winners. Other than that we should be happy to get just 1. But those seasons (03, 08, 12) were messy and we had lots of winners in those years anyway. So shouldn't come as a surprise that some "newcomers" were also in that winners group!

 

But when will we get an eventful year with plenty of different winners again? 2015 doesn't seem likely with continued Mercedes domination. Maybe 2016 or 17? With Rosberg and Hamilton (already race winners) occupying the Mercedes seats, all other winners are likely to be a random occurence in short-term future.

 

Kvyat in Red Bull and Bottas in Williams should get podiums, but to win they really need a race to go their way. And it can be very hard. Bottas got plenty of podiums, but not a win. Just like Button in 2004, who finally got a win in 2006, when finally a race DID go his way. Grosjean has also got plenty of podiums, but can Lotus reach its 2012-13 level again? Seems like a long shot. Can Hulkenberg/Perez get a surprising chance in wet conditions like they had in 2012? But that happened in that so-called messy season, when many drivers had an opportunity at the right weekend. Magnussen for me is a longer shot than Bottas-Kvyat. Verstappen - who knows. If we get no new winners in 2015, and Verstappen quickly moves upwards into a top team...

Edited by sopa, 28 November 2014 - 12:17.

[Kristian]

OK so I ended up doing this graph on my lunchbreak: the blue shows the total different winners in each 5-year period, and the red the new winners. 

 

When you consider that between 2010-2014 we have had 18-20 races per season, it does show that the spread of success is much less than it used to be. The golden days of unpredictability seemed to be in the 1970s. 

 

[lustigson]

Good stuff, Kristian. Would be interesting to see an average per season and/or race, since more races means a lower average.

 

And if we'd include the number of technical DNFs and perhaps even the number of deaths per period, that might be interesting too. 

 

Oh, well... 

[Kristian]

Good stuff, Kristian. Would be interesting to see an average per season and/or race, since more races means a lower average.

 

And if we'd include the number of technical DNFs and perhaps even the number of deaths per period, that might be interesting too. 

 

Oh, well... 

 

I have a life as well! 

[Rinehart]

I don't think there will be a 106th winner in 2015, so its possible that the next winner isn't in F1 yet. 

[BRG]

I will go out on a limb here...

 

After bizarre gardening accidents sideline both Massa & Bottas, Williams are forced to race Susie Woolf, who scores a runaway victory at Silverstone.  Bernie suffers a massive coronary due to the shock of a kitchen appliance winning a GP.

 

Or maybe not...