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Smedley: Mercedes Dominance Won't Last Long


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#51 Wes350

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Posted 20 December 2014 - 23:21

No Mercedes customer team was able to take advantage of the split turbo layout...

 

If Williams or some other team is able to design their 2015 car around this, then maybe they could get closer than expected.

 

 

Out of curiosity; Does Mercedes provide the whole engine package to it's customers/ MGU-H/K's, Turbo and 1.6L Engine?

 

Or just the basic engine and they source the other parts?



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#52 ForzaGTR

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Posted 21 December 2014 - 10:24

The inconvenient truth is, Merc could run the W05 next season and still win the championship. Nobody on the current grid is closing a 1.5 second per lap advantage in one season.


Edited by ForzaGTR, 21 December 2014 - 10:24.


#53 ArkZ

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Posted 21 December 2014 - 10:40

Smedley's assumptions based on Abu Dhabi are wrong, Massa was close only because Merc was hit by troubles with the car (and fear that it might happen with Hamilton), prior to that situation Mercs run away from Massa. Plus there was one Lotus member last year (Pername, I guess) who also made predictions, he was adamant that Redbull will translate his advantage from 2013 to 2014.


Edited by ArkZ, 21 December 2014 - 10:41.


#54 AlexanderF1

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Posted 21 December 2014 - 10:42

The inconvenient truth is, Merc could run the W05 next season and still win the championship. Nobody on the current grid is closing a 1.5 second per lap advantage in one season.

100% agree. we only saw this pace a few times in each race(around lap 20 ish = fastest lap) as the rest of the time they were in the lowest engine map(probably) bahrain and belgium and singapore we really saw the car at its fastest.

 

although it does baffle me how they didnt have this gap in quali,were they sandbagging or is it something to do with ers in the race being way better than other teams?



#55 JasonSw

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Posted 21 December 2014 - 11:19

No Mercedes customer team was able to take advantage of the split turbo layout...

 

If Williams or some other team is able to design their 2015 car around this, then maybe they could get closer than expected.

 

 

Out of curiosity; Does Mercedes provide the whole engine package to it's customers/ MGU-H/K's, Turbo and 1.6L Engine?

 

Or just the basic engine and they source the other parts?

 

Not sure where you got that information... All Mercedes powered teams ran the split turbo unit as it is part of the original package that was homolgated by the FIA.



#56 Wes350

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Posted 21 December 2014 - 18:19

Not sure where you got that information... All Mercedes powered teams ran the split turbo unit as it is part of the original package that was homolgated by the FIA.

 

Better wording would have been 'full advantage'...

 

Their customers got the final engine spec way later than Merc, and had much less time to optimize their cars around it. (which was absolutely intentional IMHO...)

 

And then there's also the whole fuel optimization thing...

 

 

I'm not saying anyone will necessarily pull even with Mercedes in 2015.

 

There are some good reasons why they had an advantage in 2014.

 

But it is not unreasonable to think that in 2015 at least some of their customer teams will pull closer.


Edited by Wes350, 21 December 2014 - 18:33.


#57 BackmarkerUK

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Posted 21 December 2014 - 18:43

While I think it's unlikely, given the engineering talent and resources at their disposal, and the fact that the rules haven't changed drastically, but there is always the possibility that Mercedes will get the design of the W06 wrong, like McLaren did with the MP4-18.



#58 kevinracefan

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 02:15

mercedessurearepopular : I don't think you could be more wrong...

 

Red Bull is using considerable budget re-writing the software for their dumplump..

 

Newey is staying involved in the car...

 

They will be much closer to merc next year...



#59 bman

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 03:14

With rival engine suppliers shooting to equal the 2014 rather than 2015 spec Merc PU, with engine changes being more and more restricted each year, with Red Bull/Newey/Vettel getting an edge in 2010 and keeping that edge for four years, does anybody see the possibility of Merc and Hamilton running off with three or four more championships in a row?



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#60 George Costanza

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 04:32

With rival engine suppliers shooting to equal the 2014 rather than 2015 spec Merc PU, with engine changes being more and more restricted each year, with Red Bull/Newey/Vettel getting an edge in 2010 and keeping that edge for four years, does anybody see the possibility of Merc and Hamilton running off with three or four more championships in a row?

 

Not likely because Nico Rosberg is there and he is much better than Mark Webber is....



#61 MissingTheApex

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 10:12

mercedessurearepopular : I don't think you could be more wrong...

 

Red Bull is using considerable budget re-writing the software for their dumplump..

 

Newey is staying involved in the car...

 

They will be much closer to merc next year...

 

Newey is going to be seriously involved in Ainslies America's cup challenge next year and the Renault is, supposedly, 75hp down, so no amount of sourcecodetrickery is going to get that all up and matching.  Let's also remember noises abound that mercy have made a leap forward themselves with their PU for 2015 too.

 

I am rather hoping if this loop hole is allowed to be used by Ferrari and Renault, that Mercedes do it too, so start the season with the 2014 unit and rinse them with that, whilst continually developing the 2015 unit so when they homologate that, it continues the trend.

 

I can't see past Hamilton and Mercedes dominating next year, really can't.  As good as Rosberg is, he's clearly from a different cut of cloth than Hamilton.


Edited by MissingTheApex, 22 December 2014 - 17:06.


#62 CHIUNDA

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 11:01

Newey is going to be seriously involved in Ainslies America's cup challenge next year and the Renault is, supposedly, 75hp down, so no amount of sourcecodetrickery is going to get that all up and matching.  Let's also remember noises abound that mercy have made a leap forward themselves with their PU for 2015 too.

 

I am rather hoping if this loop hole is allowed to be used by Ferrari and Renault, that Mercedes do it too, so start the season with the 2014 unit and rinse them with that, whilst continually developing the 2015 unit so when they homologate that, it continues the trend.

 

I can't see passed Hamilton and Mercedes dominating next year, really can't.  As good as Rosberg is, he's clearly from a different cut of cloth than Hamilton.

 

I actually hope Mercedes are not as dorminant in 2015 as they were in 2014 - that just makes the drivers look closer when they really are not.



#63 mercedessurearepopularnow

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 13:36

mercedessurearepopular : I don't think you could be more wrong...

 

Red Bull is using considerable budget re-writing the software for their dumplump..

 

Newey is staying involved in the car...

 

They will be much closer to merc next year...

You can believe that if you like, but in my opinion right now the only team they're sure to be closer to next year is Lotus.


Edited by mercedessurearepopularnow, 22 December 2014 - 14:19.


#64 F1ultimate

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 14:03

 

although it does baffle me how they didnt have this gap in quali,were they sandbagging or is it something to do with ers in the race being way better than other teams?

 

Points are scored on Sunday, not on Saturdays. They tuned their car for race performance and avoided a repeat of previous season's disaster where a Merc would qualify on the 1st row but fall back to 7th place by the 10th lap in a race. 



#65 alframsey

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 15:44

No Mercedes customer team was able to take advantage of the split turbo layout...

 

If Williams or some other team is able to design their 2015 car around this, then maybe they could get closer than expected.

 

 

Out of curiosity; Does Mercedes provide the whole engine package to it's customers/ MGU-H/K's, Turbo and 1.6L Engine?

 

Or just the basic engine and they source the other parts?

I reckon more is being made of he split turbo layout than needs to be, certainly I don't think it is that much of a game changer.



#66 Ferrari_F1_fan_2001

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 15:58

If a team can produce a good car this power deficit to Mercedes can be closed down. 

 

Remember the advantage BMW Williams had in 2001 and 2002 on power tracks with their V10? They were at 19000rpm while the others were between 18000-185000. People said their advantage was as much as 100 bhp when they went all out at places like Monza and Spa etc.

 

However, it was Ferrari who kicked ass all over though.



#67 femi

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 16:21

mercedessurearepopular : I don't think you could be more wrong...
 
Red Bull is using considerable budget re-writing the software for their dumplump..
 
Newey is staying involved in the car...
 
They will be much closer to merc next year...


I remember Newey wanted to do just that by moving on from the MP4-17 to the MP4-18 and we all know what happened. He produced a car that never raced.

#68 MissingTheApex

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 16:53

If a team can produce a good car this power deficit to Mercedes can be closed down. 

 

Remember the advantage BMW Williams had in 2001 and 2002 on power tracks with their V10? They were at 19000rpm while the others were between 18000-185000. People said their advantage was as much as 100 bhp when they went all out at places like Monza and Spa etc.

 

However, it was Ferrari who kicked ass all over though.

 

I think it's safe to say the Mercedes is the class of the field in this formula and even if you took the power advantage away, they'd be at the top step or very, very close to it.  I don't think there were many occasions where we saw the true pace of the car, with the exception being Singapore where the safety car nullified Hamiltons advantage.  Then we saw him gallop away at 1-1.5 seconds a lap on not an engine dominated circuit.  I think it's safe to say they could start 2015 with the W05 and still be the class of the field.



#69 Ferrari_F1_fan_2001

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Posted 22 December 2014 - 17:41

I think it's safe to say the Mercedes is the class of the field in this formula and even if you took the power advantage away, they'd be at the top step or very, very close to it.  I don't think there were many occasions where we saw the true pace of the car, with the exception being Singapore where the safety car nullified Hamiltons advantage.  Then we saw him gallop away at 1-1.5 seconds a lap on not an engine dominated circuit.  I think it's safe to say they could start 2015 with the W05 and still be the class of the field.

 

I agree. I think they have nailed this FRIC suspension and the car has very high and stable levels of downforce both front and rear of the car.

 

Take out the Merc engine from the W05 and stick a Renault unit in there and it would be a very strong car still IMO



#70 George Costanza

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Posted 26 December 2014 - 15:44

If a team can produce a good car this power deficit to Mercedes can be closed down. 

 

Remember the advantage BMW Williams had in 2001 and 2002 on power tracks with their V10? They were at 19000rpm while the others were between 18000-185000. People said their advantage was as much as 100 bhp when they went all out at places like Monza and Spa etc.

 

However, it was Ferrari who kicked ass all over though.

 

If Michael Schumacher was in that Williams BMW, he'd would still be winning..... Ralf and JPM were never on his level.


Edited by George Costanza, 26 December 2014 - 15:45.


#71 f1RacingForever

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Posted 28 December 2014 - 04:23

Would Merc try a risky design for next year with it possibly backfiring? That's about the only way I can see other teams catching up. Merc won't dominate like they did this past year but they will still be ahead. Of all the teams to challenge Merc next year, I doubt Williams will be the ones to do it.

#72 Jamiednm

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Posted 28 December 2014 - 09:52

Would Merc try a risky design for next year with it possibly backfiring? That's about the only way I can see other teams catching up. Merc won't dominate like they did this past year but they will still be ahead. Of all the teams to challenge Merc next year, I doubt Williams will be the ones to do it.


it wouldn't surprise me if Mercedes dominate to a similar level in 2015. I think there will be a shuffle in the competitive order around them though. Williams will come back with renewed vigour after a competitive but overly conservative year and Lotus with the Mercedes engine are capable of getting back in to the top 3/4 in my opinion. I think the Mercedes engine will take pretty much every win and a huge proportion of all the podiums.

#73 aramos

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Posted 28 December 2014 - 09:55

I agree. I think they have nailed this FRIC suspension and the car has very high and stable levels of downforce both front and rear of the car.

 

Take out the Merc engine from the W05 and stick a Renault unit in there and it would be a very strong car still IMO

frics is gone now.



#74 Timstr11

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Posted 15 January 2015 - 20:13

In Brazil it's being reported that Petrobras may withdraw their 2015 sponsorship deal, because they are struggling to match Petronas fuel and lubricants performance.

 

The plan was for Petrobras to step up in 2015 and become the fuel and lubricants supplier and larger sponsor of Williams.with increased branding on the car.

 

With oil performance being critical, I did wonder about the risk for Williams to replace Petronas as the fuel supplier.

Obviously it's a significant sponsorship deal. I wonder how this will work out contractually.

 

http://www.diariomot...s-na-formula-1/

 

Either way, this will be a blow to Williams' aspirations.


Edited by Timstr11, 15 January 2015 - 20:16.


#75 garagetinkerer

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Posted 16 January 2015 - 18:58

They can be happy to be in 2nd it's just that for a team like Ferrari, McLaren or probably Redbull, they wouldn't be happy to know that 2nd best is the ceiling and max potiential.  They could beat Merc even with Merc engines, but they'd need a big advantage or for Merc to struggling (which is hard to see happening).  It's the close ones, just like with inter team battles.. where things would get tense.  Monza wasn't even for a championship, just two cars fighting for a podium and there was already talk of that then.  There was a similar thing with Perez in a Sauber and Alonso during a wet race at Sepang a few years ago.

If you asked Sir Frank what he would love, he'd be voicing his desire to win. However, right now it is Mercedes power (and they've the best PU really), and don't forget that one of the key shareholders in Williams GP is, Wolff (not Susie, but Toto). On top of that we have Mercedes controlling modes... which is murkier. However, as pointed out earlier, what is unpardonable is failings on part of Williams. Too many times last year i felt that they got it wrong... and they had. I also had a feeling since 2013, that they were favouring a particular driver, which they shouldn't bother about, but having a "great" driver possibly helps marketing/ sponsors. I just couldn't bring myself to feel that it wasn't a factor in all those poor calls.



#76 l8apex

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Posted 16 January 2015 - 20:17

In Brazil it's being reported that Petrobras may withdraw their 2015 sponsorship deal, because they are struggling to match Petronas fuel and lubricants performance.

 

The plan was for Petrobras to step up in 2015 and become the fuel and lubricants supplier and larger sponsor of Williams.with increased branding on the car.

 

With oil performance being critical, I did wonder about the risk for Williams to replace Petronas as the fuel supplier.

Obviously it's a significant sponsorship deal. I wonder how this will work out contractually.

 

http://www.diariomot...s-na-formula-1/

 

Either way, this will be a blow to Williams' aspirations.

 

I was worried this might happen.  It seemed a bit foolish to drop the well developed Petronas fuel.

 

Look at Lotus, they did the complete opposite and dropped Total so they could use Petronas fuel.

 

Hopefully Petrobras can figure something out quickly so Williams get the sponsorship money and reasonable fuel performance.



#77 Nathan

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Posted 19 January 2015 - 19:00

Was Total dropped as a sponsor, or just as a supplier?



#78 Hans V

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Posted 19 January 2015 - 19:19

Petrobras is also currently in serious financial trouble after having invested heavily (read: betting the company on) in oil development only to see oil prices go through the floor. And there's a big corruption scandal they're involved in which can give them further financial and legal problems. So expensive F1 R&D and sponsorship might not be top priority at the moment. Bummer for Williams though.

Edited by Hans V, 19 January 2015 - 19:20.


#79 HoldenRT

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Posted 19 January 2015 - 20:14

No idea if anyone will be able to catch Merc, but that's what makes it fun to tune in and watch and find out.



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#80 SamH123

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Posted 20 January 2015 - 00:18

I agree Sean, to be honest, the rules allow Mercedes to try anything out at its base to destruction, fit it to their cars knowing it works then simply give the customers it and let them work out how to fit it all in.  They did it with new exhausts in the year IIRC; tested them to perfection at Brackley then gave them to the other teams  at the start of a race weekend, knowing they'd not be able to get the best from them for a few races.  Genius really.  I can genuinely see Mercedes making lots of changes over the winter, perfecting them, then dropping them into the customer teams in Australia.

 

I have £1000 on Hamilton at 8/15 and £500 on Rosberg EW at 2/1 and it's the easiest money I will ever make.  No one is challenging Mercedes next season, I believe.  There's a slight chance of Honda ruining the party, but i genuinely doubt it.  

 

I don't know why you'd brag about a position of

Hamilton win +£33.33

Rosberg win +£0

Anyone else win -£1,500

but I think you're telling porkies because Hamilton and Rosberg are longer odds than that pretty much everywhere

 

re: the topic

Mclaren Honda is my only real hope for a challenge to Merc because of the wildcard factor 

 

I wish it could be like first half of 2012 again  :(