65 replies to this topic

[Galko877]

Who will win a race for his new team sooner Alonso or Vettel?

 

And then who will win  the WDC for his new team sooner?

[Ducks]

None and None. /thread

[Gilles4Ever]

Please don't let this become a driver vs driver thread, if you have nothing to contribute, don't post.

 

Play nice.

[aramos]

Can't see it being Vettel unless Ferrari being a monster. He had a winning capable car last year and didn't manage it.

I'll go with Alonso. He nearly always puts himself in contention regardless of the machinery. He was leading the race at Hungary with a few laps to go before Ricciardo took the win from him. 

[tifosiMac]

I voted Vettel for winning a race sooner because the Ferrari has performed better than the McLaren in the last 2 seasons and has got more podiums. However Alonso is the better driver IMO and adapts better in situations not to his liking therefore if McLaren and Honda solve these issues fast, I think Fernando is more likely to win a championship first. It could be that neither win another race or championship but that is the fun of watching F1 and accepting how important the machinery is with 2 excellent drivers on board.

[Gorma]

Alonso's chances of winning another WDC are slim at best. Vettel has so many years left that he can join Mercedes or McLaren if his stint at Ferrari is as fruitful as Alonso's. I think both of them can win a race this year when Mercedes drops the ball.

[Buttoneer]

Can I have a poll option 'it depends on the car?'

Otherwise it's an impossible question to answer rationally. It's simply down to which driver you like most, so a popularity contest which Alonso will win because the majority reckon Vettel only succeeded because of Newey. I think that's all the bases covered. There aren't that many anyway.

/thread?

[NoSanityClause]

Can I have a poll option 'it depends on the car?'

Otherwise it's an impossible question to answer rationally. It's simply down to which driver you like most, so a popularity contest which Alonso will win because the majority reckon Vettel only succeeded because of Newey. I think that's all the bases covered. There aren't that many anyway.

/thread?

Pretty  much this.

[Logiso]

Put none for both. Merc have a free choice of anyone they want basically at the moment and Vettel wasn't on the list, and Alonso's time is running out and I can't see McLaren being a likely success. But you never know what can happen in the future, who would have predicted Brawn and Red Bull in 2009 and even more surprisingly that domination continuing until present day(only those 2 teams have won a championship since)

[DampMongoose]

Unless the vote takes place without comments.  Surely this is a driver vs driver thread?  Can't see this going anywhere productive. 

 

Quick answer: Vettel must be more likely given he's driving a car that has been more successful in recent years and has an engine that predominantly should have more reliability.  However, Alonso is probably better at wringing performance from an underachieving car, so with that in mind what does the decision come down to?  Equipment.  Which isn't in the poll. 

[Gorma]

Unless the vote takes place without comments.  Surely this is a driver vs driver thread?  Can't see this going anywhere productive. 

 

Quick answer: Vettel must be more likely given he's driving a car that has been more successful in recent years and has an engine that predominantly should have more reliability.  However, Alonso is probably better at wringing performance from an underachieving car, so with that in mind what does the decision come down to?  Equipment.  Which isn't in the poll. 

If it comes down equipment then the vote is "who do you think has the equipment to win first".

[DampMongoose]

If it comes down equipment then the vote is "who do you think has the equipment to win first".

 

Which begins a "Vettel can only win if his car's perfect" argument.  We don't have any facts about the racing ability of either car at this point, so it will become a popularity contest.

[Clatter]

I don't know which way to vote on this.

 

Vettel struggled last year and didn't seem to adapt to the new engine very well. Whereas Alonso was able to extract a lot from his machinery. So advantage Alonso.

 

With a years experience with the engine + updates then Ferrari should be better placed than Mclaren. We have yet to see what the Honda engine can really do, but IMHO the early signs show they will struggle at least at the start of the season. So Advantage Ferrari.

 

I think Vettel should be in the better place to win first, but will he still be struggling to adapt?

[McLaren]

Can I have a poll option 'it depends on the car?'

Otherwise it's an impossible question to answer rationally. It's simply down to which driver you like most, so a popularity contest which Alonso will win because the majority reckon Vettel only succeeded because of Newey. I think that's all the bases covered. There aren't that many anyway.

/thread?

 

Disagree with this. The whole point of a Forum is a place where things can be discussed.

 

Based on data that we have, people can come to various conclusions.. just like Ted Kravitz has come to the conclusion that no one will match Merc this year based on what he has seen so far in winter testing.

 

Therefore, I think that members of this forum would make their own judgements based on what they know and what they have seen.... rather than which driver they prefer. If this topic should be closed, then a whole host of topics should also be closed.

[Jimisgod]

I'm always wrong but...

Ferrari will win a race in 2015 first.

McLaren-Honda will be the ones to upset the Mercedes show and win a championship in 2017.

[rasul]

I think Alonso will never win another WDC. Since Vettel is much younger, his chances are higher.

[Lights]

Can I have a poll option 'it depends on the car?'

Otherwise it's an impossible question to answer rationally. It's simply down to which driver you like most, so a popularity contest which Alonso will win because the majority reckon Vettel only succeeded because of Newey. I think that's all the bases covered. There aren't that many anyway.

/thread?

 

It's implied that it depends on the car. It's not down to the driver I like the most, I simply expect Vettel to have a better car than Alonso in the foreseeable future and therefore I voted for him.

[oetzi]

I don't think McLaren will ever win another championship. It's quarter of a century since they were winning them regularly, and their overall trajectory doesn't seem to be upward.

[Seanspeed]

I don't think McLaren will ever win another championship. It's quarter of a century since they were winning them regularly, and their overall trajectory doesn't seem to be upward.

And its been since early 2000's since Ferrari was winning them regularly. One could easily make a very similar argument about them.

I really wouldn't ever count out either.

[oetzi]

Yeah, but 10 years isn't 25. And Ferrari were winning them before McLaren existed. The shape of their respective lifespans and successes are very different.

 

I think the main thing is that McLaren has all the guff associated with being a big manufacturer outfit, but without the real meat to back it up - the have the bureaucracy, the corporate culture, the mindset of a manufacturer. But they can't even build their own engines.

 

It's an uncomfortable halfway house, and because of that I can't see them winning for the foreseeable unless Honda help them out big style.

[Jimisgod]

Yeah, but 10 years isn't 25. And Ferrari were winning them before McLaren existed. The shape of their respective lifespans and successes are very different.

I think the main thing is that McLaren has all the guff associated with being a big manufacturer outfit, but without the real meat to back it up - the have the bureaucracy, the corporate culture, the mindset of a manufacturer. But they can't even build their own engines.

It's an uncomfortable halfway house, and because of that I can't see them winning for the foreseeable unless Honda help them out big style.

That didn't stop Red Bull from pretty much matching the achievements of Schumacher era Ferrari. And Ferrari won nothing between 1983 and 1999, more than the gap since 2007, when McLaren technically would have been WCC, and 2008 when they were WDC.

I agree that McLaren is stuck as being a semi-manufacturer team that lacks the bottomless money pit of a Red Bull or the large scale road car and engine business of a Ferrari or Mercedes. They are only just starting to build the production cars Ferrari was building in the 60s and McLaren racing overheads are greater.

Long term it may be wisest to go the engine constructor route if they want to be here in 25 years time. Red Bull is tentatively looking in that direction and it makes far less business sense for them.

However they have outdone every manufacturer to enter F1 over their lifetime and they overhauled the most successful during the period, Renault, in a few seasons. Toyota, BMW, Honda, Ford, Alfa Romeo... all made works efforts that were thumped by McLaren.

However... remember the current Mercedes is essentially the old BAR team (BAR > Honda > Brawn > Mercedes)... Red Bull is Stewart (Stewart > Jaguar > Red Bull)... and Lotus 2.0 is Toleman (Toleman > Benetton > Renault > Lotus). They will win again in some form.

[Buttoneer]

Disagree with this. The whole point of a Forum is a place where things can be discussed.
 
Based on data that we have, people can come to various conclusions.. just like Ted Kravitz has come to the conclusion that no one will match Merc this year based on what he has seen so far in winter testing.
 
Therefore, I think that members of this forum would make their own judgements based on what they know and what they have seen.... rather than which driver they prefer. If this topic should be closed, then a whole host of topics should also be closed.

You've not really disagreed at all, and I don't disagree with you. Ted has made a few comments based on his trackside observations, but those observations can't have included much about McLaren because of the mileage so far, so what are they worth in this debate? How much time have you spent at the trackside? What are you basing your comments on, fastest lap times at the end of the day? Do you believe that the car doesn't constitute 95% (and more) of the lap time? What are the testing parameters for each team? What fuel loads or PU output levels are they running? Did the people on slower laps make them all on a damp or green circuit?

So yes, please do make your decision based on all the information you have gathered, but I would like to know what that information is please.

I will certainly concede that I underestimated the Tifosi vote when thinking about 'popularity' anyway. Vettel's suddenly got loads more voting power.

[oetzi]

That didn't stop Red Bull from pretty much matching the achievements of Schumacher era Ferrari. And Ferrari won nothing between 1983 and 1999, more than the gap since 2007, when McLaren technically would have been WCC, and 2008 when they were WDC.

I agree that McLaren is stuck as being a semi-manufacturer team that lacks the bottomless money pit of a Red Bull or the large scale road car and engine business of a Ferrari or Mercedes. They are only just starting to build the production cars Ferrari was building in the 60s and McLaren racing overheads are greater.

Long term it may be wisest to go the engine constructor route if they want to be here in 25 years time. Red Bull is tentatively looking in that direction and it makes far less business sense for them.

However they have outdone every manufacturer to enter F1 over their lifetime and they overhauled the most successful during the period, Renault, in a few seasons. Toyota, BMW, Honda, Ford, Alfa Romeo... all made works efforts that were thumped by McLaren.

However... remember the current Mercedes is essentially the old BAR team (BAR > Honda > Brawn > Mercedes)... Red Bull is Stewart (Stewart > Jaguar > Red Bull)... and Lotus 2.0 is Toleman (Toleman > Benetton > Renault > Lotus). They will win again in some form.

McLaren had a shortish spell when they were far and away the richest team in the sport, hired the best drivers, and with the support of TAG, Marlboro, Porsche and Honda blew everyone away. Then Mercedes gave them the best engine and they won again a couple times.

 

If Honda do a stonking job and chuck enough cash into the team then they have a chance. If not, I can't see them doing enough from their side to win against the competition.

 

Of course, they may prove me wrong.

Edited by oetzi, 03 February 2015 - 15:02.

[McLaren]

You've not really disagreed at all, and I don't disagree with you. Ted has made a few comments based on his trackside observations, but those observations can't have included much about McLaren because of the mileage so far, so what are they worth in this debate? How much time have you spent at the trackside? What are you basing your comments on, fastest lap times at the end of the day? Do you believe that the car doesn't constitute 95% (and more) of the lap time? What are the testing parameters for each team? What fuel loads or PU output levels are they running? Did the people on slower laps make them all on a damp or green circuit?

So yes, please do make your decision based on all the information you have gathered, but I would like to know what that information is please.

I will certainly concede that I underestimated the Tifosi vote when thinking about 'popularity' anyway. Vettel's suddenly got loads more voting power.

 

At the end of the day, as I said this is a forum. So if people want to make judgements now, then they are free to do so.

 

All I am saying is that there is data out there... but I agree data is useless without context. I never said that there was much if any information.. but there is data. And if there is data, then it is inevitable that people will form there own opinions, and this forum is here so members can express their opinions.

[oetzi]

 Vettel's suddenly got loads more voting power.

Given that McLaren have a brand new engine and hasn't delivered top line car for a couple of years, I'm quite surprised that Vettel isn't winning the poll by a country mile, tbh.

[kevinracefan]

the driver is irrelevant in this question...

 

the correct wording would be "who will build a winning car first?"

[TomNokoe]

Ferrari are headed up.
Alonso is getting old.

[kosmos]

Is up to McLaren and Ferrari. The only thing Vettel has over Fernando is time, nothing more.

[Reinmuster]

Both car needs to shows that they can match Mercedes first.

Edited by Reinmuster, 03 February 2015 - 15:31.

[oetzi]

Second or third best car is usually enough to get a race win in a season.

[Nonesuch]

The car will be 95% or more of the answer to the question, regardless of what some claim.

It's an interesting question though, with Honda being the big unknown factor.

I rate Alonso somewhat higher than I do Vettel, but there's no denying both are formidable at their craft.

Since Alonso is no longer with The Team, I'll make a wishful-thinking vote and pick Vettel.
 

... since 2007, when McLaren technically would have been WCC, and 2008 when they were WDC.

No they wouldn't have been. You seem to have added up the driver's points, which would put McLaren at 109+109=218 to Ferrari's 110+94=204. However, before McLaren was thrown out of the championship for their cheating ways they were already disqualified from scoring points in Hungary due to their shenanigans in qualifying. Since Alonso and Hamilton scored 15 points there, McLaren's actual total was 203. One less than Ferrari.

Edited by Nonesuch, 03 February 2015 - 15:38.

[Afterburner]

I will certainly concede that I underestimated the Tifosi vote when thinking about 'popularity' anyway. Vettel's suddenly got loads more voting power.

But certainly not enough to prevent this from being a popularity contest, which is enough reason for me to demote most threads like this on this forum to the 'pay-no-mind' list (cue the inevitble cries of 'then GTFO'). It doesn't need to be that way; I'll give this one a chance.

 

I wish I could have discussions on here about topics like this similar to those I have with race fans and teams at the tracks I work--discussions that don't devolve into popularity contests or comments like 'Alonso's never going to win another WDC'--but that's simply not possible because the overwhelming majority of this forum begins almost every F1-related discussion about driver ability with a pre-set array of opinions that are assumed as 'fact' and therefore beyond any rational argument, be it because of buying into a media mirage or some other delusional force. Consequently, if one doesn't agree with these 'facts', then they're immediately the target of entire groups of people who further delude themselves into believing they're correct by backing each other up through use of the 'like' button, after which the original argument raised by the 'dissenter' is dismissed or otherwise ignored.

 

I'd like to pick a few examples I've seen over the winter, but I don't want to name names and this is certainly not the topic at hand. Chances are this post probably shouldn't even be here, but I do feel the need to speak my mind to the rest of the forum.

 

Basically, we're all racing fans. We're all here because we love the same thing. Why can't we all enjoy the fact that we love the same thing and encourage each other's passions rather than try to tear down the reasons we're all here? I've never had any issue doing this with anyone in a face-to-face conversation about racing. Why should this be any different?

 

Who cares if someone thinks SV is going to win first because he's the better driver? Who cares if someone thinks FA is the best driver F1's seen since Senna? Is either of these really that hard to believe? Since when does somebody have to back up an opinion with evidence if it's based on a passion? They're here because they love the same thing you do, even if they love different aspects of it. Oddly enough, if you think about it long enough, it's not hard to find things to like about every part of racing, whichever series it is.

 

Do I have a little bit of bias here? Probably. As an SV fan it's really tough to be around here sometimes and cope with all the frustration and discredit that gets thrown his way from so many members on here. I know LH and FA have their detractors as well, but nearly all of them don't care much for SV. I like Vettel, particularly Vettel @ Ferrari, because it makes me nostalgic for a time I started watching F1--but reading all of the crap already thrown around about how he's 'lucked into a good car' after just three freakin' tests makes me feel almost unwelcome to share my opinions here. By comparison, nobody seems to hold it against LH that's he's behind the wheel of what appears to be another world-beater--and in fact, it's apparently okay to complain that it's not good enough because it breaks down when he gets behind the wheel just because more people hold that opinion!

 

I'm ranting now, and I probably shouldn't be, but it's just a general note to the populace of this forum's F1 sector. One of the reasons I think I got fed up with F1 last year was because the only time I ever bothered to talk about it more than other forms of racing with people was on this forum, and this forum didn't exactly have a great atmosphere last year (which started during testing with all the gloating over RBR not being able to even run). Not every discussion needs to be a debate or an argument. We wouldn't be here if we didn't like the same thing to begin with. Maybe we could all try to make a little more effort to focus on that this year, instead of rushing to defend against perceived slights against 'our' guys, or trying to make others feel stupid for having a specific opinion about the sport they love.

 

Mods, if you don't feel any of this belongs here or in the open, please clip it off of my post. Just thought this topic in particular seemed a fitting place for something like this, as it certainly doesn't deserve its own thread. Sorry for the rant. Anyway:

 

My two cents:

 

I think it largely depends on how each team manages to develop their respective package. I think a driver like FA is what McLaren needed ever since LH left. Button strikes me as someone who needs that additional motivation to show his best (I think he did better alongside LH than he did alongside SP or KM) and FA can provide that. I'm a Honda fan more than I'm a fan of any driver, so I want to see them do well this year. If anyone can get them to the top, FA and JB are both good bets. FA arriving has probably helped the team feel like they've got a chance at the titles again.

 

Additionally, I think SV is also a good fit for Ferrari. His intra-team ethic appears to be different from FA's and has assisted in providing an apparent morale lift at Ferrari after the first test. I'm also intrigued by the idea that the Ferrari suddenly looks more drive-able this year and am left wondering if FA's 'rougher' style exaggerated the handling problems of the cars over the past few years. There's going to be an inevitable discussion about whether or not SV is an 'upgrade' over FA, but honestly it's an upgrade at best (if the 'new direction' of the team suits Vettel), a lateral move at worst (design direction doesn't suit Vettel, they've still got a great driver in an okay car). Whatever the case, it reminds me of MS from back in the day--I'd love to see this combo work out if only for the nostalgia factor.

 

Too early to call, honestly, but I want it to be SV. 

[Newbrray]

Both car needs to shows that they can match Mercedes first.

 

and Redbull too

[oetzi]

Lots of sensible things...backing each other up through use of the 'like' button...More sensible things.

I was just about to press like when I remembered this.

[Afterburner]

I was just about to press like when I remembered this.

Edited by Afterburner, 03 February 2015 - 15:47.

[rasul]

I will certainly concede that I underestimated the Tifosi vote when thinking about 'popularity' anyway. Vettel's suddenly got loads more voting power.

Never underestimate the Tifosi vote.  Alonso didn't have a fraction of his popularity until he became a Ferrari driver.

[ardbeg]

Honda is still riding on the glory brought to them by Senna. Their more recent appearance with BAR seem to be almost forgotten. F1 has changed a lot and I can not see why they should suddenly appear from the shadows and create a better engine than anyone else. I am a McLaren fan so I would not mind being wrong, but I think they will struggle. They will struggle and Honda will leave again.

So Vettel will get the next win.

[Buttoneer]

Mods, if you don't feel any of this belongs here or in the open, please clip it off of my post. Just thought this topic in particular seemed a fitting place for something like this, as it certainly doesn't deserve its own thread. Sorry for the rant. Anyway:

Not going to remove it, but I am going to ask people to not respond because that will go very downhill very quickly. If someone does want to respond, can they please do it politely via the PM system.

[jonpollak]

Based on 3 days of testing and not being a Ferrari fan since 1988...I'll say Vettel .

 

Jp

[Galko877]

For those who say it's a driver vs. driver thread. No, it is not. Only for those to whom the win of a WDC is only about driver abilities. I did not state any such thing in the poll or the OP so if you think it's a driver vs. driver thread then that's just in your own mind, but that's not what I said.

 

Otherwise this is about what I asked. Simple. You may consider every factor - team, car, development prospects, not just what you think about the abilities of Vettel and Alonso. Since they both start a new chapter and challenge in their careers, I think it will be interesting to see which one of them will reach his goal sooner - if any of them ever will.

[igoru]

I think Alonso will never win another WDC. Since Vettel is much younger, his chances are higher.

It looks you wish not think this

[rasul]

It looks you wish not think this

No, I think so. I don't think a non-Mercedes driver will win a WDC in the next few years, and Alonso will be too old by that time. Vettel is younger, so he has more chances to wait out Mercedes' domination.

[Rasputin]

[ninetyzero]

Hopefully Vettel won't win and Alonso will, I say this purely because I'd be fascinated to see what would happen at Ferrari if they didn't win a race this year.

[Jon83]

 

Impossible to even guess.

[HoldenRT]

Don't know.  That's why I like to tune in to watch and find out. 

 

Ferrari have more continuity and chance in the very short term,  McLaren-Honda have more upside or potential in the long term, but also with more risk.

Edited by HoldenRT, 03 February 2015 - 19:17.

[sopa]

Regarding the second question. I personally think the question is not so much who will win a WDC sooner, but rather whether either wins another WDC at all. For Alonso it is clearly a long shot, McLaren is in a transition phase, there are no guarantees, and time is working against him. Vettel's chances are a bit better, but as always, you need to be at the right place at the right time, and there are lots of competitive drivers (starting with Hamilton and Ricciardo) around, who threaten to steal the glory both in short and long term. Vettel has been in the right place at the right time (Red Bull), just like Alonso at Renault in mid-2000s, but it is often hard to replicate these circumstances and Mercedes seems to have stolen the thunder for now.

 

Race wins? It doesn't seem all too likely either can win a race on merit in 2015. Of course depends on the level of advantage Mercedes could possibly enjoy this year. But simply put probably either driver needs a race to go "his way" and some luck to get that win. But this is something, which is unpredictable. So who wins a race in 2016 or beyond? A harder guess. Based on the first three days of 2015 winter testing Ferrari seems like a better car, but this tells nothing about 2016.

[RubberKubrick]

I don't know which way to vote on this.

Vettel struggled last year and didn't seem to adapt to the new engine very well. Whereas Alonso was able to extract a lot from his machinery. So advantage Alonso.

Vettel will win first. Unfortunately.

Unfortunately, because of having a great car out of the blue, once again.

And regarding this "adaptation" thing: the RB10 wasn't a real dream car like his previous RBs he was so used to. That's why he struggled. If he sat in the W05, he would've continued to fight for poles, wins and WDC.

If his cars aren't "comfortable", he is lost. Even in previous years, as soon as another team was as good as the RB at a race weekend, he almost never won, apart from three or four counter examples (Bahrain12/13, Nürburgring13). That's sad statistics (Hockenheim10, Belgium10, Singapur10, China11, Nürburgring11, Silverstone11, Hungary12/13, Monaco12, Silverstone12, Hockenheim12, ...)

[RubberKubrick]

No, I think so. I don't think a non-Mercedes driver will win a WDC in the next few years, and Alonso will be too old by that time. Vettel is younger, so he has more chances to wait out Mercedes' domination.

Why do people automatically assume that Mercedes will win the championships in the coming, let's say, three or four years? Not gonna happen. I wish it would, though (at least alternating with McLaren-Honda).

[rasul]

Why do people automatically assume that Mercedes will win the championships in the coming, let's say, three or four years? Not gonna happen. I wish it would, though (at least alternating with McLaren-Honda).

It's simply my opinion that at least in the coming two seasons Mercedes will be very dominant. I hope I'm wrong, but that's what I think. 

Vettel will win first. Unfortunately.
 
Unfortunately, because of having a great car out of the blue, once again.
 
And regarding this "adaptation" thing: the RB10 wasn't a real dream car like his previous RBs he was so used to. That's why he struggled. If he sat in the W05, he would've continued to fight for poles, wins and WDC.
 
If his cars aren't "comfortable", he is lost. Even in previous years, as soon as another team was as good as the RB at a race weekend, he almost never won, apart from three or four counter examples (Bahrain12/13, Nürburgring13). That's sad statistics (Hockenheim10, Belgium10, Singapur10, China11, Nürburgring11, Silverstone11, Hungary12/13, Monaco12, Silverstone12, Hockenheim12, ...)

First of all, this is ridiculously premature. It's just the first test. I do believe(hope) Ferrari improved but I doubt we're anywhere close to Mercedes.

Second of all... There was a second of all, but I don't want to derail this thread. Let's just say that I'm glad that Ferrari's name will no longer be tarnished if/when Vettel wins in a Ferrari car: No one will assume that it's a superhuman driver outperforming the poor car and team. About time.

Edited by rasul, 03 February 2015 - 20:20.