71 replies to this topic

[bernardv]

So many votes for Bottas? Sorry, but he just doesn't have the raw speed to pull it off. Reliable driving in a solid car can get you podiums, but it takes a bit more to get a win (unless you're in the best car on the grid).

[Nonesuch]

Even if the Mercedes has half the advantage it had last year, Hamilton and Rosberg should easily win over a dozen races, with the former claiming the majority of them. As we saw last year, they needed to mess up extremely badly not to finish at least 2nd.

 

Outside of Mercedes it's more interesting, but also difficult to predict. The only one in the top teams who would really surprise me if he were to win is Kvyat.

[DutchQuicksilver]

So many votes for Bottas? Sorry, but he just doesn't have the raw speed to pull it off. Reliable driving in a solid car can get you podiums, but it takes a bit more to get a win (unless you're in the best car on the grid).

Only one word: Hype.

 

Many people slagged Raikkonen for not being able to beat Massa, yet many people feel Bottas is the next big thing. Even though Bottas had more points, he only achieved that by finished 2nd in Silverstone and Hockenheim, two races where the Williams car excelled and Massa had a DNF.

 

I'd even say Massa was quicker than Bottas in race trim last season.

[sopa]

So as it stands, 25 people think Lewis won't win a race, and 36 people think Nico won't win a race.

 

I'd like to meet these people.

 

There is always some % of people, who use votes as a way to have fun and make jokes. You can never expect any such public polls to have a 100% hit rate even to the most obvious questions.

[sopa]

So many votes for Bottas? Sorry, but he just doesn't have the raw speed to pull it off. Reliable driving in a solid car can get you podiums, but it takes a bit more to get a win (unless you're in the best car on the grid).

 

Same was thought of Button. But now he has 15 race wins. The most basic requirement is the car, and if you have that, many drivers can pull off wins especially if circumstances/luck play in their favour. It is not ruled out that if Mercedes hits trouble this year, Bottas may be the first to capitalize? After all, last year there were plenty of races, where he finished behind the Mercedes as best of the rest.

[RubberKubrick]

So many votes for Bottas? Sorry, but he just doesn't have the raw speed to pull it off. Reliable driving in a solid car can get you podiums, but it takes a bit more to get a win (unless you're in the best car on the grid).

I'd say "only a few votes for Raikkonen?"

[kimister]

I'd say "only a few votes for Raikkonen?"

 

That's because so many people was so disappointed due to his season ,after knowing what he is capable of actually. Now, it seems he is not on their agenda anymore 

[Topsu]

So many votes for Bottas? Sorry, but he just doesn't have the raw speed to pull it off. Reliable driving in a solid car can get you podiums, but it takes a bit more to get a win (unless you're in the best car on the grid).

In my opinion Bottas showed his 'raw pace' in Sochi qualifying. 

[KavB]

So many votes for Bottas? Sorry, but he just doesn't have the raw speed to pull it off. Reliable driving in a solid car can get you podiums, but it takes a bit more to get a win (unless you're in the best car on the grid).

Funnily enough, Massa was the driver who was closest to winning a race last year. 

 

I think Bottas can win a race if Williams are at least as strong as last year and they improve their strategy. But I think Felipe has an equally strong chance. I don't really understand why Bottas has significantly more votes than Felipe.

[CrashPad]

Voted for both Mercs & Ferraris, Bottas and Ricciardo.

Thought hard about Alonso, but I feel like McLaren is in too deep a trouble to pull off a win this season. (Though if there is a driver who could make it happen it is Alonso)

[Exb]

Voted for Lewis and Nico - unless Merc muck up in the races I don't see anyone else having a chance and the likelihood of them both having a problematic race on the same weekend I would have thought will be less than last year (as I expect their reliability to improve).

 

If they do both have problems the same weekend it will be whoever is lucky enough to be in 3rd that weekend (a bit like last year, had Merc messed up in different weekends it is quite possible Williams could have had a win, it just so happened it was Daniel in the box seat on those occasions - although to be fair he was best of the rest most often ).

 

 (I just want a good fight, I don't mind Merc winning but I would like to see someone give them a challenge - but imho its not going to happen this year)

[sopa]

Funnily enough, Massa was the driver who was closest to winning a race last year. 

 

I think Bottas can win a race if Williams are at least as strong as last year and they improve their strategy. But I think Felipe has an equally strong chance. I don't really understand why Bottas has significantly more votes than Felipe.

 

Well, here you have a point. Predicting individual race results is more difficult. For example in 2002 Ralf Schumacher won a race, but Montoya didn't. Montoya finished ahead in the season standings though. In 1999 the same case - Johnny Herbert won a race, but Barrichello didn't.

 

So yeah, it can go either way. Maybe Raikkonen wins a race and Vettel doesn't. Maybe Ricciardo is very consistently on the podium, but there is one race where Kvyat excels, and Mercedes hit trouble there and - bam - Kvyat is the winner rather than his team-mate.

 

However, I am personally predicting here based on average probability. Massa can have a great race every now and then, but on average I think Bottas will have stronger results. He will have more podiums if the car is as good as it was last year. He certainly did last year. And if you are already on the podium, you are "pretty close" to win. Certainly closer than when you are located in P10, or even P6!

 

In the same way, if there was a question, who is more likely to finish on the podium this year among Hulkenberg and Perez, I'd still say Hulkenberg despite what happened last year. Between Grosjean and Maldonado I'd say Grosjean has a greater chance to win despite Maldonado already having won a race and having the ability to put in an odd great performance. It doesn't mean all these things WILL happen though. In some driver pairings can go the other way. Just if you put in lots of strong performances, your chances are higher that you eventually succeed rather when you only sometimes go well and happen to hit the jackpot.

Edited by sopa, 07 February 2015 - 14:27.

[superden]

The driver in the lead when passing the chequered flag will win a race. This will, probably, happen in 100% of the races this year.

[Scuderia312]

Unless there will weave a chequered flag too early.

[sopa]

Unless there will weave a chequered flag too early.

 

Or there is no chequered flag... As in Brazil 2003. Or even Brazil 2002 (Pele!).

[Scuderia312]

I am too young to remember but Brazil 2003's podium - top two in wrong order and no third driver

[lars75]

Lol. Sainz will have him by years end and neither will get a podium.

 

Time will tell ;-)

 

I just voted Max for I hope he does a Monza/Vettel this year 

[lars75]

I am too young to remember but Brazil 2003's podium - top two in wrong order and no third driver

 

And during the race Verstappen was in front of the later winner Fisichella, if only he did not spun off just like 10 others at the same corner :-) What a race 

[Nemo1965]

And during the race Verstappen was in front of the later winner Fisichella, if only he did not spun off just like 10 others at the same corner :-) What a race 

 

Not only that, Verstappen was on a no-stop strategy, according to Paul Stoddard...

[sopa]

I feel it's been a while since we got a proper underdog winner, like Panis 96, Herbert 99, or Fisichella 03. I don't include Maldonado, because he was genuinely at the front that weekend and didn't need front-runners to fall off the road. But considering nowadays they put out red flag or safety car whenever there is a more serious rain, such races have become almost impossible to happen. FIA has done everything to avoid races with "lots of retirements".

[sennafan24]

I feel it's been a while since we got a proper underdog winner, like Panis 96, Herbert 99, or Fisichella 03. I don't include Maldonado, because he was genuinely at the front that weekend and didn't need front-runners to fall off the road. But considering nowadays they put out red flag or safety car whenever there is a more serious rain, such races have become almost impossible to happen. FIA has done everything to avoid races with "lots of retirements".

Under your criteria of a "proper underdog winner"

 

I think Hulk at Brazil 2012 would be the closest we have come in recent years. Maybe Perez's drives at Sepang 2012 and Canada 2014 deserve a mention also. 

[TomNokoe]

FIA has done everything to avoid races with "lots of retirements".

Australia 2008, 6 cars took the chequered, 5 on the lead lap. I'm pretty sure we haven't seen anything remotely similar in the 7 seasons since :-(

Was a bone dry race as well!

Edited by TomNokoe, 10 February 2015 - 19:27.