1299 replies to this topic

[SCUDmissile]

Based on all the testing information so far, Ferrari are about 1.2 seconds slower than Mercedes on quali basis, if not even more. 

 

That's before all the aero updates from Mercedes in next 20 days.

 

I'm thinking more 1.231564s to be precise. Top speed I think maybe 7.86km/h down and the Ferrari PU is 18bhp down on the Mercedes. 

Then again there is some advantage for the Ferrari are Vettel is about 2.5 kg lighter than Nico and 3.7 kg lighter than Lewis. 

Kerb weight of course.

[JoseM]

I'm thinking more 1.231564s to be precise. Top speed I think maybe 7.86km/h down and the Ferrari PU is 18bhp down on the Mercedes. 

Then again there is some advantage for the Ferrari are Vettel is about 2.5 kg lighter than Nico and 3.7 kg lighter than Lewis. 

Kerb weight of course.

All irony aside, what Rosberg did today was exactly what Darren Heath said in his prophecy two weeks ago. Perhaps a couple of days earlier than predicted, but painful nevertheless. Sorry.

[Okyo]

Am i the only one hoping that team Willy might be hiding a few aces in their sleeves? 

[MaxisOne]

Am i the only one hoping that team Willy might be hiding a few aces in their sleeves? 

 

Team Willy has adoped the sandbag approach too ... you never know. They werent that far off last year. 

[InSearchOfThe]

Didn't watch or follow any tests.

 

I know it's only preseason, but does Verstappen look like he's got the goods?

Maybe his rep is legitimate.

 

And what about Lotus?

It's gotta be the shoes!

[OO7]

so is this true 

 

Rosberg 24,321 on a used set of Mediums on a 7 lap stint.

 

#gameover 

https://www.youtube....h?v=09s-c2JVI40

[Okyo]

Team Willy has adoped the sandbag approach too ... you never know. They werent that far off last year. 

They had arguably the second best car in the end part of the season, heck, might say even an equal car to the Merc in Abu Dhabi and few other places (engine tracks mainly). 

Yeah, it's a long shot, but you never know. Of course, not talking abiout WDC and WCC chances, but just challenging the Mercs like the second half of the last season.

Edited by Okyo, 22 February 2015 - 18:25.

[tomazy]

Am i the only one hoping that team Willy might be hiding a few aces in their sleeves? 

 

Bottas did a 1:28.164 on hard tires on the first timed lap of a 27 lap stint.

 

Last years fastest lap was 1:28.918 11 laps till the end of the race.

 

use this info visely

[Newbrray]

Williams are definitely hiding something, whether its enough to step to the Mercs remains to be seen

[MotorsportFerrari]

Who is surprised by Mercedes? They had over a second advatange at the end of last year, I don't think it is any surprising.

 

I am more surprised by the fact that people forget about Kimi Raikkönen who set a 25,4 on winter hards and 25,1 on medium. And that on a much less rubber-in track and with less refindes set-up.

 

Yes, 1,24,3 on used medium is strong, but it isn't depressing at all. I don't wanna say Mercedes won't have 5-6 tenths over the second best, but alone this lap time doesn't shock me at al..

[rasul]

Day 4 | Top Speed:

 

Bot: 337,5 Km/h

Gro: 336,4

Nas: 335,4

Hul: 332,3

Sai: 330,2

Vet: 329,2

Ros: 327,2

Alo: 326,2

Kvy: 325,3

[Lipp]

Didn't watch or follow any tests.

 

I know it's only preseason, but does Verstappen look like he's got the goods?

Maybe his rep is legitimate.

 

And what about Lotus?

It's gotta be the shoes!

Regarding Verstappen, he did fine. He made no mistakes and drove 227 laps in total showing consistent times from the data I have seen.

[Ducks]

[Leprechau]

That's three seconds faster than his qualifying time last year (he qualified fifth; I'd forgotten!   ).

 

That was on Mediums and we can guess +-1,5s from that to SuperSofts alone. Then we have Lotus changing from a 2014 Renault PU to a 2015 Mercedes. How much is that worth of?   Then we have the colder temps.

 

All in all, I think everybody can go quite faster. I think Lotus can go at last some 0,5s quicker on SS as my guess is that PU change plus weather and car development can account to up 2s.

 

I think Rosberg can go even 1,5s quicker on Mediums. Nobody really showed everything, I reckon.

 

Last year, Red Bull was "only" 1s off from Mercedes in Barcelona QLF. I'll be very surprised if they are any more than 0,7s slower this year(on same track). So, I think even them can low 23s on Mediums....

 

 

24.5 from a medium-tyred W06 is just as expected IMO. Seeing what the others have done you couldn't be surprised to see that Mercedes are faster than Lotus for instance, by close to two seconds. 

 

 

You're deluded. Even with Renault's PU, last year, Lotus was only 1,7s slower in QLF.
 

[MortenF1]

Let's see then.

If you think you can compare these times right across with the times set in Q last year, you, are deluded. Besides CdC was a complete anomaly for Lotus last year.

[InSearchOfThe]

Danka Lipp.

 

I haven't been over saturated by Max being a yank, so I actually hope the kid is a future star.

I would guess Verstappen  looked more comfortable than Sainz jr.?

[rhukkas]

Didn't watch or follow any tests.

 

I know it's only preseason, but does Verstappen look like he's got the goods?

Maybe his rep is legitimate.

 

And what about Lotus?

It's gotta be the shoes!

 

I see the car racing world is finally catching up with what the kart world knew 5 years ago. Max is the real deal.

Edited by rhukkas, 22 February 2015 - 23:35.

[Leprechau]

Let's see then.

If you think you can compare these times right across with the times set in Q last year, you, are deluded. Besides CdC was a complete anomaly for Lotus last year.

 

yeah, we'll have to wait to see. If the PU gap had remained, Mercedes would have needed to stretch that by 0,3s on car development, and that alone, is not likely as Mercedes has less potential to improve due to having a better car. Because there is no PU gap anymore(unless Mercedes plays it dirty, which frankly I don't doubt of), that gap will only decrease significantly, imho.

 

Maybe I'm deluded that they could reach 22.5 on Mediums. If that's so, then improvement is even less than I expect and 2015 cars won't be that much faster than 2014s.

 

But it's complicated than that. It could be that PU development is quite significant but aero isn't as much. So, in a track like Barcelona, improvement wouldn't be as much as in places like Bahrain.

 

[TF110]

Some here are funny. Saying things like "Im not impressed" by Mercedes' time. It doesnt matter if youre not impressed with a 1:24.3 on used mediums in a 7 lap stint. No team cares if they impress us or any competitor. That doesn't change the fact that its very fast for that compound even over 1 lap, let alone a previous fastest lap with a few tenths and 5 more on the tire. Even if they were only fueled for 8 laps, thats a killer time. When you go for a fast lap you take life out of the tire by pushing it. The fact that Rosberg did a previous lap that was near mid 1:24's and more then put in a 1:24.3 shows just how quick they can go.

Edited by TF110, 23 February 2015 - 01:42.

[Leprechau]

Some here are funny. Saying things like "Im not impressed" by Mercedes' time. It doesnt matter if youre not impressed with a 1:24.3 on used mediums in a 7 lap stint. No team cares if they impress us or any competitor. That doesn't change the fact that its very fast for that compound even over 1 lap, let alone a previous fastest lap with a few tenths and 5 more on the tire. Even if they were only fueled for 8 laps, thats a killer time. When you go for a fast lap you take life out of the tire by pushing it. The fact that Rosberg did a previous lap that was near mid 1:24's and more then put in a 1:24.3 shows just how quick they can go.

 

Only if improvement is rather small for 2015. 8 laps means less than 0,8s(now that cars weights over 700kg). Then, it would mean 1.23.5 of max potential on Mediums. Considering it's winter, it's a pretty poor time. It would mean a pole, with plus 20ºC, in the mid to low 24s

 

What I find annoying about testings in these past two years is that there is no good site covering it anymore. Previously there were that greek and spanish ones that had all laps recorded. Now it's so difficult to assess racesim pace.

 

[aramos]

Some here are funny. Saying things like "Im not impressed" by Mercedes' time. It doesnt matter if youre not impressed with a 1:24.3 on used mediums in a 7 lap stint. No team cares if they impress us or any competitor. That doesn't change the fact that its very fast for that compound even over 1 lap, let alone a previous fastest lap with a few tenths and 5 more on the tire. Even if they were only fueled for 8 laps, thats a killer time. When you go for a fast lap you take life out of the tire by pushing it. The fact that Rosberg did a previous lap that was near mid 1:24's and more then put in a 1:24.3 shows just how quick they can go.

They'll run 22's no problem on that track. The track conditions may be worse for the race but I don't know how he can call that not impressive. Mercedes have a huge advantage.

 

The worrying thing is that Red Bull were generally the second best team in terms of race pace may not have made a big step forward relative to Mercedes. Ferrari have made a much bigger step, but they had a bigger step to make as they were generally 1s a lap behind Red Bull towards the end of the year. 

[TF110]

Only if improvement is rather small for 2015. 8 laps means less than 0,8s(now that cars weights over 700kg). Then, it would mean 1.23.5 of max potential on Mediums. Considering it's winter, it's a pretty poor time. It would mean a pole, with plus 20ºC, in the mid to low 24s
 
What I find annoying about testings in these past two years is that there is no good site covering it anymore. Previously there were that greek and spanish ones that had all laps recorded. Now it's so difficult to assess racesim pace.

No, the ultimate pace would be much faster. Probably at least a low 1:23 on mediums. Thats because if he did 7 'flying laps', he was at least fueled for 9 (In/out lap). On top of the fuel weight, the lap was far from perfect since he already used some tire to set the other 1:24. So I think a low 1:23 is easily reachable with a real mock qualifying attempt.

[Ferrari2183]

Who is surprised by Mercedes? They had over a second advatange at the end of last year, I don't think it is any surprising.

 

I am more surprised by the fact that people forget about Kimi Raikkönen who set a 25,4 on winter hards and 25,1 on medium. And that on a much less rubber-in track and with less refindes set-up.

 

Yes, 1,24,3 on used medium is strong, but it isn't depressing at all. I don't wanna say Mercedes won't have 5-6 tenths over the second best, but alone this lap time doesn't shock me at al..

It is very depressing although not surprising...

 

What makes it depressing is the fact that it was a used medium and the likelihood of at least 10 laps worth of fuel.

 

Kimi's times were impressive in their own right but that right has nothing to do with relative pace but rather to highlight how far Ferrari have come since last year.

[OO7]

 

Only if improvement is rather small for 2015. 8 laps means less than 0,8s(now that cars weights over 700kg). Then, it would mean 1.23.5 of max potential on Mediums. Considering it's winter, it's a pretty poor time. It would mean a pole, with plus 20ºC, in the mid to low 24s

 

What I find annoying about testings in these past two years is that there is no good site covering it anymore. Previously there were that greek and spanish ones that had all laps recorded. Now it's so difficult to assess racesim pace.

 

We also need to take into account that Nico wasn't very happy with the time either.  He commented that the team were expecting more, so there is likely more potential in the car than the time suggests, I'd presume.

[MotorsportFerrari]

It is very depressing although not surprising...

 

What makes it depressing is the fact that it was a used medium and the likelihood of at least 10 laps worth of fuel.

 

Kimi's times were impressive in their own right but that right has nothing to do with relative pace but rather to highlight how far Ferrari have come since last year.

 

Kimi set a 25,4 on winter hards. Let's suppose there is only a tiny 5- tenths-diff between the hard and the medium because it is the special winter hards. That is 24,9 on medium. Kimi did after that 25,4 4 more laps and was interrupted by a red flag, so he may have continued his run. Let's cut off further 4 tenths due to his 4 laps. It is 24,5. So even if we are cautious, he could have easily done 24,5 on fumes and on the medium. That isn't a bad time either on medium.

 

I don't want to convince anyone. In contrary I have been the one who has feared from Mercedes to dominate the whole season and kill Formula 1 again, but I just want to highlight that Nico's time doesn't scare me.

What scared me is the advantage Mercedes had at the end of last year which he could easily carried over the winter.

[Jamiednm]

I don't want to convince anyone. In contrary I have been the one who has feared from Mercedes to dominate the whole season and kill Formula 1 again, but I just want to highlight that Nico's time doesn't scare me.
What scared me is the advantage Mercedes had at the end of last year which he could easily carried over the winter.

Mercedes kill F1 again? What do you mean? Did they force Renault and Ferrari in to doing poor jobs on their engines?

[Donkey]

Didn't watch or follow any tests.

 

I know it's only preseason, but does Verstappen look like he's got the goods?

Maybe his rep is legitimate.

 

And what about Lotus?

It's gotta be the shoes!

Verstappen has kept it out of the barriers and driven plenty of laps with consistent times.

 

Sainz Jr drove pretty well as well, although he did beach it once.

 

Both better than Kvyat's exploits in the RBR anyway.

[Maustinsj]

When's the next test?

[GoldenColt]

Thursday - Sunday, 26th of February - 1st of March.

[turssi]

Thursday to Sunday same track.

[kimster89]

When the second test starts?

[turssi]

When the second test starts?

Read many posts ? Like the ones before yours ?

[A3]

 

Sainz Jr drove pretty well as well, although he did beach it once.

 

Twice.

[Rinehart]

Pole was around 1.25.0. I said I expect PU+aero development to account for around 1,5s and I also said I guessed cold temp effect to be more than 1s.

 

Is that math too complicated for you and charly0418?

 

 

 

 

Frankly I think your know-it-all predictions have more to do with your blind faith in weather forecasting and cold temperature characteristic assumptions that any solid foundations upon what exactly the gains might be on an engineering basis.  You've called everyone who doesn't agree with you "delusional" in this thread 3 times now - despite, I assume, not being in possession of a time machine or an employment contract with an F1 team. 

[bonjon1979a]

Kimi set a 25,4 on winter hards. Let's suppose there is only a tiny 5- tenths-diff between the hard and the medium because it is the special winter hards. That is 24,9 on medium. Kimi did after that 25,4 4 more laps and was interrupted by a red flag, so he may have continued his run. Let's cut off further 4 tenths due to his 4 laps. It is 24,5. So even if we are cautious, he could have easily done 24,5 on fumes and on the medium. That isn't a bad time either on medium.

I don't want to convince anyone. In contrary I have been the one who has feared from Mercedes to dominate the whole season and kill Formula 1 again, but I just want to highlight that Nico's time doesn't scare me.
What scared me is the advantage Mercedes had at the end of last year which he could easily carried over the winter.

Did this time on hards actually happen, I don't see it in ducks summary of times above?

[Ferrari2183]

Did this time on hards actually happen, I don't see it in ducks summary of times above?

Yes it did. I'm not sure about the run being interrupted by a red flag though. Kimi also set a 25.1 on the medium tyre on a 5 lap run inclusive of in/out laps.

 

Anyway, I believe the winter hard is more akin to a medium tyre in any event and it shouldn't deter from what was a blistering lap from Rosberg all things considered. I have little reason to believe that Ferrari could have done that lap time under similar conditions. 

[rasul]

Did this time on hards actually happen, I don't see it in ducks summary of times above?

It did, but it was winter hards, not hards. Winter hards seemed to be a lot faster than hards and a bit slower than mediums.

 

You don't see it in ducks' summary because it shows only the best lap set by a driver, disregarding everything else(tyres, fuel loads, conditions, etc). 

[Newbrray]

Did this time on hards actually happen, I don't see it in ducks summary of times above?

 

Am trying to find a reference for it as well. Although the time might not show up as such lists usually only have the fastest time per driver over the test period.

 

for example if Raikkonen did a 1:25:4 on winter hards and then did a 12:4:5 on softs , there will only be 1 entry (the faster time on softs) for him on the list.

 

At least I think that's how they compile it  

[bonjon1979a]

It did, but it was winter hards, not hards. Winter hards seemed to be a lot faster than hards and a bit slower than mediums.

You don't see it in ducks' summary because it shows only the best lap set by a driver, disregarding everything else(tyres, fuel loads, conditions, etc).

Ah, thank you. That explains IT.

[Cyanide]

 

This is absolute genius. Wins the thread by a country mile. 

[Leprechau]

Frankly I think your know-it-all predictions have more to do with your blind faith in weather forecasting and cold temperature characteristic assumptions that any solid foundations upon what exactly the gains might be on an engineering basis.  You've called everyone who doesn't agree with you "delusional" in this thread 3 times now - despite, I assume, not being in possession of a time machine or an employment contract with an F1 team. 

 

Sorry if my predictions came out as arrogant but I try to base everything, possible,  on past experience and on known adjustments/corrections. The cold temp is a tricky one because in some years it accounted for more than a second, in others for 0,7s. It depends on how much people sandbagged on winter, how hot it was in the GP time and etc.

 

The 1,5s improvement from PU+aero is purely a personal guess. I didn't call anybody deluded because they disagreed with that expectation. Some people said they expect 3s or more, I highly doubt that but there is no base to know who's closer to it, so I would be stupid to call people deluded when we're all purely guessing on that specific matter.

 

When I said race_addicted was deluded, it was because, with a much worse PU, Lotus was 1,7s slower. So, with an equal PU, how can they be 2s behind Mercedes?!

 

If someone posts that he thinks Sauber will be a front runner this year, is it ok to say he's deluded? I guess we would all be ok with it because we base on last year that this is highly unlikely. The same with Lotus now having a much better PU and likely closing the gap to Mercedes.

 

 

 

[kevinracefan]

when the stats show stability ratings entering and traction ratings exiting corners, then they will be useful data..

YMMV

[zanquis]

I think it is interresting to see how Mercedes are still appearing to be cruising. Lotus is trying to do a Williams but I ave feeling they are like Sauber busy with restoring credits more then other teams.

I dont know if the teams build full new chassis for both drivers for after the testing but If not I hope Sainz gets this chassis and Verstappen gets a crash free because i find it impressive how he drive so much and still keeping the laptimes with decent speed. No fatigue or mistakes.

Honda is hard to tell it looks bad but maybe if the problems are fixed the engine might surprise us. Renault still seems the weaker of the 3 main brands but luckily for them Sauber hired Ericsson so if the Honda engine is fast they still wont be last.

[noikeee]

Will Buxton's take on this test: https://willthef1jou...t-a-lovely-war/

 

After a slightly tiring article in which he seems to be hyping almost every single team, he tries to predict the pecking order at the end:

 

Mercedes
Williams marginally ahead of Red Bull / Ferrari
Lotus
Toro Rosso / Sauber
McLaren
Force India???

 

... which I find a little odd. Yeah McLaren are having some trouble having all their systems on but surely, SURELY once there's a proper race weekend they'll be ahead of at least Toro Rosso and Sauber? I don't get his reasoning for that one at all.

Edited by noikeee, 24 February 2015 - 20:51.

[Ducks]

They had arguably the second best car in the end part of the season, heck, might say even an equal car to the Merc in Abu Dhabi and few other places (engine tracks mainly). 

Yeah, it's a long shot, but you never know. Of course, not talking abiout WDC and WCC chances, but just challenging the Mercs like the second half of the last season.

 

I think clear 2nd for Williams at certain tracks, then equal with RedBull/Ferrari depending on track.

 

Should be some epic 3rd place battles

[HomeBoy]

Will Buxton's take on this test: https://willthef1jou...t-a-lovely-war/

 

After a slightly tiring article in which he seems to be hyping almost every single team, he tries to predict the pecking order at the end:

 

Mercedes
Williams marginally ahead of Red Bull / Ferrari
Lotus
Toro Rosso / Sauber
McLaren
Force India???

 

... which I find a little odd. Yeah McLaren are having some trouble having all their systems on but surely, SURELY once there's a proper race weekend they'll be ahead of at least Toro Rosso and Sauber? I don't get his reasoning for that one at all.

 

maybe his reasoning is somewhat close to mine, meaning that McL might have a fast package, but it will take some time (maybe even till mid season) to "release the full potential" of the car, before that having to either tune down their PU due to reliability, or having few DNFs, both of which means less points at the end of the season than some slower, but more consistently points scoring teams... time will tell

Edited by HomeBoy, 24 February 2015 - 22:16.

[Rinehart]

Sorry if my predictions came out as arrogant but I try to base everything, possible,  on past experience and on known adjustments/corrections. The cold temp is a tricky one because in some years it accounted for more than a second, in others for 0,7s. It depends on how much people sandbagged on winter, how hot it was in the GP time and etc.

 

The 1,5s improvement from PU+aero is purely a personal guess. I didn't call anybody deluded because they disagreed with that expectation. Some people said they expect 3s or more, I highly doubt that but there is no base to know who's closer to it, so I would be stupid to call people deluded when we're all purely guessing on that specific matter.

 

When I said race_addicted was deluded, it was because, with a much worse PU, Lotus was 1,7s slower. So, with an equal PU, how can they be 2s behind Mercedes?!

 

If someone posts that he thinks Sauber will be a front runner this year, is it ok to say he's deluded? I guess we would all be ok with it because we base on last year that this is highly unlikely. The same with Lotus now having a much better PU and likely closing the gap to Mercedes.

 

 

Respect, Leprechau, the bolded bit was my issue, nicely explained.

 

Re the Lotus to Merc gap. Logically yes they're going to benefit from an improved PU (not parity, however, I believe that Merc have a works advantage over customers in terms of mapping, fuel technology, etc) but that's just one element - Mercedes could unlock even more car speed through chassis/aero, relative to Lotus. Its not deluded to think its possible (which it is) even though I agree with you its pretty unlikely that the gap will increase.

[RCRC]

Based on all the testing information so far, Ferrari are about 1.2 seconds slower than Mercedes on quali basis, if not even more. 

 

That's before all the aero updates from Mercedes in next 20 days.

 

 

I'm thinking more 1.231564s to be precise. Top speed I think maybe 7.86km/h down and the Ferrari PU is 18bhp down on the Mercedes. 

Then again there is some advantage for the Ferrari are Vettel is about 2.5 kg lighter than Nico and 3.7 kg lighter than Lewis. 

Kerb weight of course.

 

Well, now that Quali is over, my analysis based on observation was fairly spot on. 

 

So much for tests don't reveal anything.

[tmekt]

Well, now that Quali is over, my analysis based on observation was fairly spot on. 

 

So much for tests don't reveal anything.

Put an infinite amount of monkeys into a room with infinite typewriters and one of them is gonna type the bibliography of Shakespeare.

 

(not saying you're a monkey, by the way)

Edited by tmekt, 14 March 2015 - 15:37.

[Massa]

Well, now that Quali is over, my analysis based on observation was fairly spot on. 

 

So much for tests don't reveal anything.

 

 

Ferrari is one second slower, not more. But this is true, you were close to the truth

Edited by Massa, 14 March 2015 - 15:41.