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F1 Top 290: How I did it


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#1 hittheapex

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Posted 14 February 2015 - 23:42

I know this is a divisive subject, but I enjoy looking at and making “best ever” lists. In the absence of a time machine and depending on the criteria for the list, they can be a helpful tool for grouping drivers from different eras in my opinion. Some are based, from the older generations, on the drivers they have been fortunate to see racing. Others by looking at results and applying their own formula or criteria. I was born in the late Eighties, so my list falls into the latter category.

 

My list is another of the “averages” lists that tries to account for the factor of the car. Of course, it can't be foolproof as it's impossible to be absolutely sure about the difference between car and driver. The list broadly brings out the differences in driver performances in the same team over a season, aggregated for each driver to give a picture of their average form over their career. This is a key reason why some drivers will appear differently on list compared to others that rank drivers only on their peak form. It's also why I have not named competing drivers or those who may return to F1 in the near future, as their ranking after they retire could be very different.

 

How I did it

 

I always thought that points should have extended beyond the top 6, so I was happy when the top 8 rule was brought in for 2003. I have tried to include every point scorer from F1 or drivers who would have fitted in had the top 8 rule been introduced a few years earlier. I haven't done this for the earliest eras because of smaller grid sizes. In what may be seen as a touch of personal bias, I omitted the 2005 USGP because of the exceptional circumstances and the distortion it would have on the “scoring” of the Minardi and Jordan drivers.

 

I should draw attention to my omission of drivers who only appear on historic F1 points totals because of Indy 500 wins. I understand whether to count the Indy 500 divides fans. I've decided to omit because of its very limited time as an F1 event and that the grids often didn't reflect other F1 events. A single point from just one other F1 event however, is enough to make this list.

 

Drivers points are all counted evenly. From 1950-2014, the points are totalled according to 2003 rules. This may favour the drivers from earlier decades with the smaller grids and/or lesser reliability. In addition to the points, wins, poles, fastest laps and titles are all included.

 

If one divides wins, poles, fastest laps, by Grand Prix entered of course the same number comes up for each if it is 10 wins, 10 poles and 10 fastest laps, as if they were worth the same. I disagree, so after the averages are worked out, I weight them so that a win is worth 1.5 times as much as a pole, and a pole is worth twice as much as a fastest lap. Title average is worked out by the % races counted in a driver's career, applied to the number of full seasons, eg if 60% of a driver's races are counted, their title count is divided by 60% of the seasons competed. I added all of these averages to points/per race to get a total which I used to rank the drivers.

 

Counting the races

 

Using a season of 11 teams or more as the original model, it works out like this. Drivers in the championship winning team have all their races counted. Then 10% of their races are discounted for each position lower their team is. So, if a driver's team finishes in 6th place, 50% of their races are counted. Anybody in teams finishing 11th or lower do not have their races counted, given the meagre opportunities to score points. For seasons with less teams that complete most or a full season, I change the scale proportionally so that each position goes down by 15%, 20%, 25%, etc

 

There are weaknesses to this. Sometimes a driver is exceptionally unlucky, such as Gerhard Berger in 1989, who retired from 12 of the 15 races entered but would have 90% of his races counted against a meagre points total despite several very good performances until the car let him down.

 

It also doesn't account for exceptionally dominant versus tight seasons between teams, such as 1996 vs 2012. Sometimes the midfield spread could be separated only by a few points rather than double digits.

 

So it's not completely scientific but this was the closest formula I could think of as accounting for car and driver without subjectivity overruling results. The counter to the weaknesses is that looking at things race by race, it would be much more open to subjectivity and guessing on my part, which undermines the whole point of the exercise and is ultimately futile for anybody who can't remember seeing every single race.

 

Why the heck is that driver so high or so low?

 

This list may raise some eyebrows because of the higher and lower rankings of some drivers than is usually the case. This might be down to the fact that a lot of lists are top 100 and 150s, and also lean towards the famous names and don't include the 150 or more other drivers who scored points.

 

I have included all points scorers to account for drivers that may have been unfairly overlooked by a lot of these kinds of lists. Some race winners are outside the top 200, which might seem silly until we remember that there have been around 100 GP race winners so far. There were many others who were good enough to win a race but weren't in the right car. Similarly, after 65 seasons of F1, some championship contenders are in the lower parts of the top 100, below some drivers who didn't win a title, because there were many good enough to win a title, sometimes multiple titles, that didn't succeed.

 

This list works best looking at driver's careers overall. We can probably find individual seasons between most driver pairings where each gets the better of the other, but as we know, driver form goes up and down. Some cars and regulation eras suit one driver more than another. Exceptional seasons where they beat or dominate a team mate will be to their benefit, and seasons where they struggle will be reflected in that way. Drivers who were killed or retired prematurely or too late account for most of the anomalies. One could probably move driver rankings around by about 5 positions in the top 50 and by around 10 positions from 100 downwards, as the spread becomes much closer after the top 50 or so.

 

Some drivers will also benefit from having been exceptional in a small number of races but giving only a small sample. If a driver's score looked very odd compared to the others, I looked at team mate records to try and get a rough estimate and occasionally the comments of F1 colleagues of the time. Sometimes I had to account for different chassis/engine combinations, especially before the Eighties.

 

Drivers that I had to move around on the rankings because of serious anomalies, I have listed with an * next to their name.

 

**means these drivers only competed in a single race.



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#2 Richard Jenkins

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 08:32

Hittheapex, thank you for taking the considerable time and effort to produce your list. However, regrettably, its to the wrong audience - the right forum - but wrong audience, as most on TNF have an aversion to rankings, and the need for them, and stats - myself included, if I'm being honest.

That said, TNf used to be a place where there was some decorum at least. Its a shame -but no surprise - that you've had unconstructive comments.

I am not sure what online receptacle is the right one for your list, but I hope you find it and garner more quality feedback accordingly.

Edited by Richard Jenkins, 15 February 2015 - 08:34.


#3 Allan Lupton

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 08:51

That said, TNf used to be a place where there was some decorum at least. Its a shame -but no surprise - that you've had unconstructive comments.

I am not sure what online receptacle is the right one for your list, but I hope you find it and garner more quality feedback accordingly.

It is impossible to make constructive comments about a matter one has no sympathy for, posted anonymously.

As you say, Richard, somewhere other than TNF is the place for this sort of ephemera - whether it is somewhere in this system, such as Racing Comments, I cannot tell as, like many here, I have no interest in the artificial list approach to history.



#4 Nonesuch

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 09:54

Thank you for explaining your system! :up:

 

Even if the results are highly disputable, as is the basic premise of a list such as this one, it is nevertheless interesting to me because it's a topic with which I have some experience.

 

I used to dabble in the creation of so-called 'performance files' for games like Grand Prix 3 and Grand Prix 4, which required the driver's ability and the variable range of said number to be quantified in a two numbers. This is obviously a simpler task than yours since A) it is all relative rather than absolute and B) it only involves one season. Nevertheless, your approach reminds me of some of the ways I used to (attempt to) quantify the drivers performances.



#5 Vitesse2

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 10:10

Hittheapex, thank you for taking the considerable time and effort to produce your list. However, regrettably, its to the wrong audience - the right forum - but wrong audience, as most on TNF have an aversion to rankings, and the need for them, and stats - myself included, if I'm being honest.

That said, TNf used to be a place where there was some decorum at least. Its a shame -but no surprise - that you've had unconstructive comments.

I am not sure what online receptacle is the right one for your list, but I hope you find it and garner more quality feedback accordingly.

A good summing up. Thanks Richard. I shall remove some of the comments already made and would ask that people remember the old adage that if you cannot say something nice or constructive you say nothing. Silence is sometimes golden.

 

For my part, I would merely point out that the vastly increased reliability of cars in recent years is the one factor which cannot be accounted for and which - to a greater or lesser extent - means that any such list is inevitably going to be flawed. Not a criticism - just an observation.



#6 hittheapex

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 11:28

It is impossible to make constructive comments about a matter one has no sympathy for, posted anonymously.

As you say, Richard, somewhere other than TNF is the place for this sort of ephemera - whether it is somewhere in this system, such as Racing Comments, I cannot tell as, like many here, I have no interest in the artificial list approach to history.

 

 

Hittheapex, thank you for taking the considerable time and effort to produce your list. However, regrettably, its to the wrong audience - the right forum - but wrong audience, as most on TNF have an aversion to rankings, and the need for them, and stats - myself included, if I'm being honest.

That said, TNf used to be a place where there was some decorum at least. Its a shame -but no surprise - that you've had unconstructive comments.

I am not sure what online receptacle is the right one for your list, but I hope you find it and garner more quality feedback accordingly.

Thank you both for your comments. I did consider racing comments but then the subject matter isn't exactly current. I can't see a better forum than TNF. If that means I run into a lot of opposition that's fine, it would be very boring on here if we all agreed. All the better to expose the weaknesses of the rankings, too.



#7 Roger Clark

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 13:33

I'd like to thank Vitesse2 for removal of certain posts.  The work that hittheapex has put into this surely deserves a constructive comment if we are going to comment at all.  Lists like this cannot prove anything but they can stimulate an interesting discussion and we can't really ask for anything more than that.

 

Having said that, I did find it difficult to understand the methodology used here.  I don't consider myself to be completely innumerate, but I got lost in the paragraphs immediately before and after the heading "counting the races".  Is it possible to explain?

 

Denis Jenkinson, when told that somebody had just won a race would always say: "but who did he beat?"  If I had won a Grand Prix in the 60s with Clark, Hill, Gurney, Surtees and Brabham in the next five places (in any order), I would consider it more meritorious than if they had all retired.  Has anybody tried to build an algorithm that took this sort of thing into account?  I suppose it would be different if they had retired while in the lead, or if they had all blown up trying to keep up with me, but that might be too difficult!



#8 hittheapex

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 13:42

I'd like to thank Vitesse2 for removal of certain posts.  The work that hittheapex has put into this surely deserves a constructive comment if we are going to comment at all.  Lists like this cannot prove anything but they can stimulate an interesting discussion and we can't really ask for anything more than that.

 

Having said that, I did find it difficult to understand the methodology used here.  I don't consider myself to be completely innumerate, but I got lost in the paragraphs immediately before and after the heading "counting the races".  Is it possible to explain?

 

Denis Jenkinson, when told that somebody had just won a race would always say: "but who did he beat?"  If I had won a Grand Prix in the 60s with Clark, Hill, Gurney, Surtees and Brabham in the next five places (in any order), I would consider it more meritorious than if they had all retired.  Has anybody tried to build an algorithm that took this sort of thing into account?  I suppose it would be different if they had retired while in the lead, or if they had all blown up trying to keep up with me, but that might be too difficult!

 

That's a very good point and I have no doubt it would alter some of the rankings given how common mechanical failures were even as recently as the mid 90s. I'm no good with making algorithms or programs, but I'd certainly love to see something like that. We would still have the unknown of whether mechanical failures were attributable to the driver, but I think it's impossible to have a ranking system without unknowns.

 

Regarding the counting of the races, let's say a driver did 3 seasons with 16 races in each.

 

First season, lucky him, he's in the constructors winning team. So let's count all 16 races.

Second season, the team slips down to 2nd. So now it's 90% of 16, which comes to 14.4

Third season, even worse, the team slips down to 6th. 10% drop with each constructor position drop, so now it's 50% of 16, and 8 races.

Fourth season, backmarker team. Bottom of the table. No races counted for that year.

 

Is that easier to understand?


Edited by hittheapex, 15 February 2015 - 13:44.


#9 Eric Dunsdon

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 14:32

I can appreciate the  work put into your ratings, but I am afraid that I never take much interest in headings that begin with F1. which, being something of an old timer on this forum, rather limits things for me. Make it 'Grand Prix Racing'  pre-1960 and you've got my attention!. Any list which omits the likes of Nuvolari, Varzi, Caracciola, Bordino and Ascari Snr for example, isny of too much interest to me.  Sorry.


Edited by Eric Dunsdon, 15 February 2015 - 14:34.


#10 Doug Nye

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 17:19

I doubt there's any pressing need to apologise Eric...

 

Such comparative tables - and the interminable work that goes into composing them - are simply a matter of different horses preferring different courses.

 

DCN



#11 Eric Dunsdon

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 17:26

I doubt there's any pressing need to apologise Eric...

 

Such comparative tables - and the interminable work that goes into composing them - are simply a matter of different horses preferring different courses.

 

DCN

Thank you Doug. I dont feel quite such an outsider now!.



#12 Roger Clark

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 17:45

That's a very good point and I have no doubt it would alter some of the rankings given how common mechanical failures were even as recently as the mid 90s. I'm no good with making algorithms or programs, but I'd certainly love to see something like that. We would still have the unknown of whether mechanical failures were attributable to the driver, but I think it's impossible to have a ranking system without unknowns.

Regarding the counting of the races, let's say a driver did 3 seasons with 16 races in each.

First season, lucky him, he's in the constructors winning team. So let's count all 16 races.
Second season, the team slips down to 2nd. So now it's 90% of 16, which comes to 14.4
Third season, even worse, the team slips down to 6th. 10% drop with each constructor position drop, so now it's 50% of 16, and 8 races.
Fourth season, backmarker team. Bottom of the table. No races counted for that year.

Is that easier to understand?

I think I've got it. Are are using these factors to modify the average points per race? So if for examplea driver scored 50 points in a 10 race season and his team won the Championshipthen he would average 5 points a race but if his team finished second then he would average 9.55 (50/9).

It's an interesting idea but it does tend to reward drivers who are dominant in their team. That may have been the intention but the idea that your greatest rival is your team mate is relatively recent. There was a time when drivers raced as teams.

How did you deal with private entries in the days when they were common? If, for example, someone drove an old Lotus in 1963, would all his races be counted because Team Lotus won the Championship.

It seems that you have awarded 66% of a win for pole position and 33% for fastest lap. That would mean that pole position was worth more than third place and. Fastest lap more than sixth. Both seem generous to me.

However, any system that has Fangio, Ascari and Clark as the top three cant be too bad.

#13 hittheapex

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 23:46

I can appreciate the  work put into your ratings, but I am afraid that I never take much interest in headings that begin with F1. which, being something of an old timer on this forum, rather limits things for me. Make it 'Grand Prix Racing'  pre-1960 and you've got my attention!. Any list which omits the likes of Nuvolari, Varzi, Caracciola, Bordino and Ascari Snr for example, isny of too much interest to me.  Sorry.

No need to apologise. I am interested in the pre-1950 era as well. If I am to make a list that tries to account for car performance as this one does, it will be much more complicated, not helped by the different scoring system back then either. I started it but haven't finished it yet! :lol:



#14 hittheapex

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Posted 15 February 2015 - 23:59

I think I've got it. Are are using these factors to modify the average points per race? So if for examplea driver scored 50 points in a 10 race season and his team won the Championshipthen he would average 5 points a race but if his team finished second then he would average 9.55 (50/9).

It's an interesting idea but it does tend to reward drivers who are dominant in their team. That may have been the intention but the idea that your greatest rival is your team mate is relatively recent. There was a time when drivers raced as teams.

How did you deal with private entries in the days when they were common? If, for example, someone drove an old Lotus in 1963, would all his races be counted because Team Lotus won the Championship.


It seems that you have awarded 66% of a win for pole position and 33% for fastest lap. That would mean that pole position was worth more than third place and. Fastest lap more than sixth. Both seem generous to me.

However, any system that has Fangio, Ascari and Clark as the top three cant be too bad.

 

You are right, it modifies the average points per race, as that tends to be the most significant factor in any rankings that are based on results, and it was intended to reward drivers who are dominant in the team. Performances such as Gilles Villenueve in 1980 or Kubica in 2010.

 

I suppose that because I've grown up watching F1 from the 1990s the idea of "your teammate is your closest rival" is more ingrained in my thinking, although it is wonderful to read the stories such as Graham Hill giving his goggles to another competitor after he had retired. A weakness in my rankings is that it hurts drivers who pulled over or gave up their car to their #1 teammate and such like.

 

I realised that private entries were a big problem. Drivers who competed in Brabhams and Lotuses from 2 seasons prior with an older engine could still be classified in the constructors championship as "Lotus-Ford" or "Brabham-Repco" etc when of course they weren't realistically driving front running machinery. I had to adjust the constructor championship points accordingly for that era.

 

Blocks of drivers such as Webber, Coulthard, Barrichello, Berger and Brundle, Warwick, Nannini, Fisichella and Heidfeld emerge close together in my rankings similar to how they often do in rankings based on pure evaluation. It isn't a perfect system by any means, but in my humble opinion perhaps better than ones that simply divide the averages without trying to build some kind of formula for car performance. Ones based on pure evaluation get rid of some anomalies that I've deliberately left in my system in all but the worst cases, but sometimes introduce other controversial results through subjectivity and bias.


Edited by hittheapex, 16 February 2015 - 00:00.


#15 D-Type

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Posted 18 February 2015 - 14:57

Looking at the results, the top few are who I'd expect but further down the list there are some anomalies.  I find some of the underlying principles hard to understand:
(a)  The purpose of racing, whether a grand prix or an infant school egg and spoon race is to win.  This should be the main basis for scoring

(b)  Grid positions are not an end in themselves, they are simply a means to help achieve the end of winning the race.  Hence they should be eliminated from the scoring as the contribution made to winning or attempting to is reflected in the race result.  If you must include this, then it should reflect all grid positions not jusrt the pole.

©  Similarly setting fastest lap has no intrinsic value - it is merely a coincidental result of trying to win.  Which is the better race?  To drive consistently and finish, say, fourth or to drive near the front, spin off or damage a tyre requiring a pit stop and then have to drive flat out to make up the time lost due to the driver's error and set fastest lap.  In the event of the early races when cars were not so reliable there is some justification for compensating drivers who fail to finish but have been on the pace before retirement.  But should it be only fastest lap or also award points for second and third fastest?

(d)  I can see no logic in penalising drivers from teams other than the top team.  Taking 1961 as an extreme case why should  drivers of other cars be penalised a second time for not being in a Ferrari?  A second time because they have already suffered from having a slower car.

(e)  Conversely trying to bolster a driver's score when driving an inferior car is also wrong since the best teams normally attract the best drivers so a good driver has been rewarded.

(f) What should be taken into account is the number of races in a season.  In 1950 farina had only 6 (or 6 + Indianapolis) to score points compared to Hamilton's 19.  Therefore all points should be factored by dividing by the number of races in the season.  To avoid loads of decimal places maybe multiply the corrected points by, say, 20.  It should be the number of races in a season not the number a driver ran in.

 

So what does that leave:

(i)  Points calculated for P1 to P8 on the 2003 scoring

(ii) Fastest lap taken as equivalent to 8th place
(iii) Factor points from each race by dividing by the number of races in a season and multiplying by 20 to keep the numbers a reasonable size

Ignoring

(iv) Pole positions or grid positions as the are already reflected in the results

(v) Whether a driver drove for a good team or a bad team as the teams' evaluation of the driver is reflected in his results.

(vi) How many races a driver competed in as that has nothing to do with his skill as a driver



#16 hittheapex

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Posted 19 February 2015 - 03:13

Looking at the results, the top few are who I'd expect but further down the list there are some anomalies.  I find some of the underlying principles hard to understand:

(d)  I can see no logic in penalising drivers from teams other than the top team.  Taking 1961 as an extreme case why should  drivers of other cars be penalised a second time for not being in a Ferrari?  A second time because they have already suffered from having a slower car.

My system actually doesn't penalise them, it does the opposite. By counting less races against a driver in a season, it raises the average of the points, wins, poles and fastest laps they have achieved that year. You are right that the number of races competed in does not display the skill of a driver in isolation, but when looking at results I think it is important to account for car performance. Drivers "total GP" are calculated according to car performance. I think that answers point (V) as well.

 

(e)  Conversely trying to bolster a driver's score when driving an inferior car is also wrong since the best teams normally attract the best drivers so a good driver has been rewarded.

Fair point. Not true all of the time though and sometimes our perception of a drivers worth is skewed by his car. It's one of those "chicken and egg" things in my opinion, as I mentioned in the 2nd paragraph.

(f) What should be taken into account is the number of races in a season.  In 1950 farina had only 6 (or 6 + Indianapolis) to score points compared to Hamilton's 19.  Therefore all points should be factored by dividing by the number of races in the season.  To avoid loads of decimal places maybe multiply the corrected points by, say, 20.  It should be the number of races in a season not the number a driver ran in.   If I understand correctly, that would leave drivers in Schumacher's situation in 1999 heavily penalised? When he was driving very well that year but then missed several races?

Hello D Type. on point A I would agree but add that realistically some drivers have no chance of winning, hence my attempt to try and introduce a formula to somewhat compensate for that. On points B and C, I think you are correct in some instances, such as when cars carried fuel (or rather, short fuelled themselves) in qualifying, or when fastest laps were set by somebody sticking a set of new tyres on at the end but they were well down the pack. I've answered other parts of your post in the quotes. Sorry for the haphazardness.


Edited by hittheapex, 19 February 2015 - 03:13.


#17 D-Type

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Posted 19 February 2015 - 23:05

I think you've missed the idea behind my point (f).  It is simply a way of normalising the scores from different seasons to reflect the number of races in a season by equating them to a notional 20 race season.  In 1960 there were 8 races so the the year factor is 20/8 = 2.5; in 1999 there were 16 so the factor is 20/16 = 1.25; in 2015 there will be 20 races so the year factor will be 1.0.

In 1999 Schumacher drove in 10 of a possible 16 races, 62.5% of the races.  The points scored by Schumacher, Hakkinen, Irvine etc are all factored by 1.25 but Schumacher scores zero in each of the races he missed. He doesn't get penalised further.



#18 hittheapex

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Posted 20 February 2015 - 01:52

I think you've missed the idea behind my point (f).  It is simply a way of normalising the scores from different seasons to reflect the number of races in a season by equating them to a notional 20 race season.  In 1960 there were 8 races so the the year factor is 20/8 = 2.5; in 1999 there were 16 so the factor is 20/16 = 1.25; in 2015 there will be 20 races so the year factor will be 1.0.

In 1999 Schumacher drove in 10 of a possible 16 races, 62.5% of the races.  The points scored by Schumacher, Hakkinen, Irvine etc are all factored by 1.25 but Schumacher scores zero in each of the races he missed. He doesn't get penalised further.

Sorry D-Type but I still don't completely understand your formula yet but I hope my reply is still "on topic." to your comment. In my opinion, the races are equalised by the combination of having the same points scoring system for each and coming to an average points per race total. Sure, later drivers had more opportunities to score points but then they have more races counted against them, too.

 

Maybe if you give a more detailed example, and break down how it works, using 2 drivers from 2 different eras, e.g. Kubica and Boutsen, I might be able to understand better.


Edited by hittheapex, 20 February 2015 - 01:54.