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Sulman or Najar? 1947 Australian Grand Prix...


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#1 Ray Bell

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 13:25

Under question is fifth place in this race...

The results read as follows:

5. T. Sulman (Sulman Singer) Run time: 2h 32:48; Race time: 2h 41:48
6. A. Najar (MG TB Special) Run time: 2h 47:07; Race time: 2h 41:37

So Najar's Race Time was eleven seconds quicker than Sulman's. I would have thought that would have meant he'd beat the Singer into fifth place.

Does anyone know the answer to this riddle? Am I missing something?

Out of interest, the handicaps for the pair were 19:30 for Najar and 28m for Sulman.

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#2 Michael Ferner

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 14:45

What's the source for the results? Any chance a typo crept in? Have you means of checking for that?

#3 Tim Murray

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 14:45

Forgive me for sticking my nose in here, to a subject I know very little about, but there appear to me to be two other anomalies in the race results as found on Darren Galpin’s site:

http://www.silhouet....7/1947.html#aus

It would appear that the results were worked out by taking the highest handicap (Les Burrows – 37 min) and adding the difference between Les’s 37 min and the quoted handicap for a particular driver to that driver’s actual race time to get the figure used in the adjusted results. This works out correctly for every finisher except Bland, Mitchell and Najar.

In Bland’s case the difference is 10 seconds and in Mitchell’s it is 2 minutes. Najar’s figures make no sense as they would give him an adjusted time of 3 hours 04 min 37 sec which I assume has to be very wrong.

It now needs someone who knows a lot more than I do to check the records and work out how and where these anomalies crept in.

#4 Vitesse2

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 15:05

Are you sure the handicaps weren't adjusted after practice, Ray? When compared to the results, none of the ones in the AGP history seem to make sense.

 

I reckon much of that's just a provisional 'finger in the air' list subject to revision. For example all the MG TBs and TCs are listed with the same handicap.

 

As just one example from the results Murray's winning time suggests a handicap of 11'30", but in the list he's shown as 25'30". There's an obvious typo on Bland's time too - unless he was the only finisher whose handicap wasn't an exact minute or half. The run time for Myers is also extremely dubious!

 

Most importantly, how on earth can Najar's run time be greater than his race time in a 'hare and hounds' road handicap?

 

There hadn't been a 150-miler handicap since Bathurst at Easter 1940, when most of the 1947 field weren't present, so there was no recent form to go on - and maybe someone remembered how they'd screwed up in 1939 when they failed to adjust Tomlinson's?

 

That doesn't exactly solve your original question, of course - but it does seem to suggest a look back at original sources might help!



#5 Tim Murray

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 15:16

As just one example from the results Murray's winning time suggests a handicap of 11'30", but in the list he's shown as 25'30".

As I pointed out above, it appears that the adjusted times were calculated by adding to the actual race time the difference between the highest handicap (37 min) and the driver's quoted handicap, hence Murray correctly had 11'30" added to his race time. The only drivers whose adjusted times don't fit with this method are the three I quoted.

Edited by Tim Murray, 25 February 2015 - 15:19.


#6 Vitesse2

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 17:47

Okay, I see what you mean, Tim. But adjusting to the limit man is an arse-backwards way of doing it, since if the limit man doesn't finish or - as was often the case - reports didn't say when he started in relation to the scratch man, the calculation isn't immediately obvious if you don't have the full list of handicaps. It's far simpler to just adjust the times to scratch by subtracting the handicap from the run time - which is actually the way the AGP had done it in previous years. Handicaps were usually calculated to give a 'round' race time for the scratch man - in this case the target appears to have been two hours.

 

I've re-cast the table below, which I think makes it easier to understand. I've also corrected the seconds in Bland's adjusted time. I tried highlighting Mitchell's and Najar's dubious race times as well, but the software doesn't seem to like that!

 

The Australian press quoted a diferent time of 2h14'33" for Davison the following morning - although that wouldn't apparently affect his position. Unfortunately, they only provided finishing times for the first three. Mitchell's and Najar's handicaps are confirmed in the results, so the obvious conclusion must be that their race times are wrong in some way. As Tim said above, it looks like Mitchell's is probably two minutes out - but it could be another 30 seconds or so either way. But if we assume both Sulman's and Monday's times are correct then there's only a 9-second range for Najar's: between 2h24'29" and 2h24'38"

				         Cap.    Handicap  Race Time  Adjusted Time
 1 W.Murray             MG TC           (1250cc  25.5 min)  2h28m16    2h02m46
 2 C.Bland              Ford V8 Spl     (3700cc    15 min)  2h18m32    2h03m32
 3 A.Davison            Mercedes-Benz   (7634cc  10.5 min)  2h14m03    2h03m33
 4 R.Mitchell           Ford V8 Spl     (1340cc    15 min)  2h21m09    2h06m09
 5 T.Sulman             Sulman-Singer   (974cc     28 min)  2h32m48    2h04m48
 6 A.Najar              MG TB Spl       (1250cc  19.5 min)  2h47m07    2h07m37
 7 H.Monday             Mercury Spl     (3622cc    17 min)  2h21m59    2h04m59
 8 J.Barraclough        MG NE           (1271cc    21 min)  2h26m10    2h05m10
 9 D.MacLachlan         MG T Spl        (1355cc  19.5 min)  2h26m25    2h06m55
10 L.Burrows            MG J2           (847cc     37 min)  2h44m37    2h07m37
11 R.Ward               MG TB           (1250cc  25.5 min)  2h34m07    2h08m37
12 B.Myers              Riley Imp       (1089cc    34 min)  2h43m01    2h09m01
13 W.Nunn               MG TB           (1250cc  25.5 min)  2h36m25    2h10m55
14 E.Forbes-Robinson    MG TC6          (1250cc  25.5 min)  2h36m58    2h11m28


#7 Tim Murray

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 18:29

Okay, I see what you mean, Tim. But adjusting to the limit man is an arse-backwards way of doing it ...


Agreed absolutely - never come across it before - but it was the only way I could make sense of the figures.

Should your 'subtracted' adjusted time for Najar not be 2hr 27 min 37 sec?

#8 Vitesse2

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 18:53

Agreed absolutely - never come across it before - but it was the only way I could make sense of the figures.

Should your 'subtracted' adjusted time for Najar not be 2hr 27 min 37 sec?

Only if the obviously incorrect time isn't incorrect! I should have explained that in the table above I've assumed that his race time includes a typo which means it is precisely 20 minutes wrong - which also produces the interesting coincidence(?) that his adjusted time is exactly the same as Burrows'. Could that perhaps mean that he hit his predicted finish time on handicap more or less exactly?

 

Gotta go, online Open University tutorial in six minutes!



#9 Ray Bell

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Posted 25 February 2015 - 21:34

The results are from Australian Motor Sports and are reprinted in the AGP book...

I'll have to look and see if there's mention of adjusted handicaps. It would be nice if John Medley could chime in, and now I notice he has identified the same problem in his Bathurst book!

Still, that doesn't alter the need we have to satisfy our curiosity about the handicaps and final times.





.

Edited by Ray Bell, 25 February 2015 - 21:40.


#10 cooper997

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Posted 26 February 2015 - 01:05

Just to add to the confusion.

 

What follows is the entry list from the programme. Unfortunately I dont have it hardcopy, but you'll see some conflicting information that was probably written on the day. For the record this is from Barry Lake's copy, who caught the racing bug from a young age, but I suspect as a then 5 year old he possibly didn't write it.

 

Stephen

 

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#11 Tim Murray

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Posted 26 February 2015 - 04:47

This would appear to resolve one of the results anomalies. Mitchell's handicap is listed in the programme as 17 min, not 15 min. This makes his adjusted time as shown in the results fit with all the others apart from Najar.

#12 john medley

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Posted 26 February 2015 - 05:24

Sorry,all.  I have no and had no solution to the riddle I tried it from all angles, including almost all mentioned above, a very long time ago -- I think 1980. I even had a computer whizz(rare at that time) enter and record/total all lap times to cross check( I can no longer find this record, nor can I remember its details).

 

I and others including original recorders have added to the problem by typos and other errors eg Barry Lake inadverdantly typed " 19m 50s" when my impeccable handwriting said , as did the programme," 19 1/2 mins " way back in 1977, an error widely perpetuated. including correctly recording it in that place as 19m 30s but as 19.5 (= 19.50?) elsewhere.

 

My only comment is that I assume Sulman left on 28 minutes, Najar 8m30s later on 19m30s, Najar then closing by 6m41s to finish 1m49s behind Sulman. That works. The error is somewhere else



#13 Wirra

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Posted 26 February 2015 - 05:37

Suggestion by a non-historian.

 

Might officialdom have imposed some penalty, either for a race infringement or as a result of post-race scrutineering?



#14 Tim Murray

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Posted 26 February 2015 - 06:16

I and others including original recorders have added to the problem by typos and other errors eg Barry Lake inadverdantly typed " 19m 50s" when my impeccable handwriting said , as did the programme," 19 1/2 mins " way back in 1977, an error widely perpetuated. including correctly recording it in that place as 19m 30s but as 19.5 (= 19.50?) elsewhere.


This suggests a possible solution to me. If Najar's actual race time had been 2 hr 24 min 27 sec, then his adjusted time using the wrong handicap of 19 min 50 sec would be 2 hr 41 min 37 sec, as listed in the results, but which we know can't be right. Using the correct handicap of 19 min 30 sec gives an adjusted time of 2 hr 41 min 57 sec, which fits nicely between the times of Sulman and Monday and would justify Najar's 6th place listing.

#15 Ray Bell

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Posted 26 February 2015 - 06:54

No, that's not it...

The '19.50' didn't come in until years later. You can see it's '19½' in the programme. The '19.50' is for 19.5 minutes... ie. 19m 30s.

#16 ken devine

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 00:54

Can anybody tell me how they worked out handicaps in those days to have them printed in the programme and newspapers well before the event. As a former co handicapper we would work out handicaps by comparing previous times and practise times,we would also use times from the scratch races on the day and readjust them before we publicised them to the drivers.



#17 GMACKIE

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 05:39

My first ever race was a handicap race, 1962 at Oran Park. There no "previous times" to refer to, only hillclimb results.They put me on 'scratch'.



#18 humphries

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 13:22

There are two discrepancies between Darren's run times and the official run times (plus all lap times) as listed in the November AMS edition.

 

Bland should be 2: 18' 22.0 and Najar 2: 24' 07.0

 

John


Edited by humphries, 27 February 2015 - 13:27.


#19 Vitesse2

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 14:14

I think the error on Bland's time can probably be ascribed to a typo on the results sheet issued on the day - the dailies which reported it all gave it as 32 seconds. They also all quoted his handicap as 15 minutes 2 seconds.

 

But that still doesn't get us further on Najar. :well:



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#20 Tim Murray

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 18:10

Well at least we now have a run time for him which ties in with his adjusted time (2hr 41 min 37 sec) as quoted in the results.

Edited by Tim Murray, 27 February 2015 - 18:10.


#21 Vitesse2

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 19:12

Can anybody tell me how they worked out handicaps in those days to have them printed in the programme and newspapers well before the event. As a former co handicapper we would work out handicaps by comparing previous times and practise times,we would also use times from the scratch races on the day and readjust them before we publicised them to the drivers.

Well, in this case we're looking at a long-distance race with individual handicaps, for (normally) drivers and cars whose previous records were known. I mentioned above that the handicappers in long road races usually had a target time for the scratch man: in this case 2 hours, thus expecting scratch to average 75mph. A comparison to other drivers' previous races could then be used to make a fairly accurate estimate of their handicaps. Some handicappers did reserve the right to adjust handicaps after practice for road races - but it seldom happened. Added to which, any driver who felt he'd been given a generous one would be pretty daft to show his hand: Tomlinson freely admitted he'd sandbagged in practice for the 1939 AGP!

 

I'm pretty sure Tony Rolt did something similar - although not quite as extreme - in the 1938 Leinster Trophy. He was one of three on scratch, expected to average 80mph, but during the race he broke his own lap record five times, shaving 27 seconds off it to leave it at 83.45mph. His race average was 79.6mph, but he only finished sixth behind St John Horsfall, who had probably deserved to have his handicap changed, as he'd been second fastest behind Rolt in practice - ahead of the other two scratch men - but nevertheless started with no less than two laps advantage over Rolt.

 

Brooklands - or more precisely 'Ebby' Ebblewhite - had comprehensive records of every race and practice time going back to 1908. In an interview he gave The Autocar in 1937 Ebby all but admitted that he also surreptitiously timed private testing sessions too. Just occasionally he made a big mistake: when the Delahaye 145s ran in the Dunlop Jubilee meeting in September 1938 I suspect he based their unachievable handicaps on Dreyfus' run at Cork and/or John Snow's private test of a 135 at Brooklands. They were actually expected to make up time on the Multi-Union, which could lap Brooklands at 140mph!

 

The following year he went the wrong way on the Lagonda V12s, which placed first and second in their first Brooklands race and were observed to be easing off just before The Fork on the last lap. Ebby promptly re-handicapped them during the meeting - to the point where their drivers realised they had absolutely no chance of winning so didn't even try. Re-handicaps were very common during Brooklands meetings.



#22 D-Type

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Posted 27 February 2015 - 20:30

In Kenya they simply disqualified drivers who exceeded their handicap by too big a margin.